President Job Approval Rating

Transcription

1 President Job Approval Rating Bush Clinton Rating 1/03 7/02 1/02 1/01 10/98 10/98 9/98 % % % % % % % Approve Disapprove Not sure A majority of Maryland voters continue to approve of the job President Bush is doing. But one could say his approval rating has come back down to Earth, sinking by one-third in the past year. Democrats mildly disapprove of Bush by 48% to 40%. Republicans overwhelmingly approve, 85% to 10%. Independents approve of the President 53% to 40%. Bush approval reaches 70% in rural areas, but only 50% in Baltimore County. Among those afraid they might lose their job, Bush is disapproved of by 49% to 44%. Q1. Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

2 Glendening Job Approval Rating Rating 1/03 10/02 9/02 7/02 1/02 1/01 2/00 10/98 10/98 9/98 % % % % % % % % % % Approve Disapprove Not sure The Glendening approval rating has dropped like a stone over the past two years, retreating from a nearly two-to-one positive to two-to-one negative today a 55-point swing. Members of Glendening s own party give him a negative 13-point approval rating (38% approve to 51% disapprove). The older the voter, the harder they are on the governor, with disapproval rising to two-thirds among seniors. The least educated voters are also more critical of the governor than other voters. African-Americans continue to approve of the outgoing governor, 50% to 40%. In Greater Baltimore, disapproval of Glendening is 67% (23% approve); while Greater Washington used to be the governor s base, now a near-majority disapprove of him there (49% disapprove to 39% approve). Glendening may be taking the blame for the state s fiscal problems, as three-quarters (74%) of those who list the state deficit as the number one legislative issue disapprove of the governor. Q2. Generally, do you approve or disapprove of the way Parris Glendening is handling his job as Governor of Maryland?

3 Anticipated Job Performance: Ehrlich Rating 1/03 % Good job Poor job Not sure A majority of voters are giving the new governor the benefit of the doubt. The same question, asked two years ago at the outset of President Bush s term, showed 45% predicting the new president would do a good job. One-third (33%) of Townsend voters are confident of Ehrlich, as are 47% of Democrats. Voters who list cutting taxes as the number one legislative priority are much more likely to predict Ehrlich will do a good job (67%), as are those who favor slots (67%), and those who want to cut both higher education and environmental spending (74%). Q4. As you look ahead to the administration of Bob Ehrlich, what kind of a job do you think he will do as governor? Are you confident he will do a good job, or do you worry that he will do a poor job as governor?

4 Most Important Problem Facing MD Today Rating 1/03 7/02 1/02 1/01 7/98 % % % % % Education/Schools State Budget Shortfall/Fiscal Problems na...na Economy/Jobs Crime/Criminal Justice/Drugs Taxes too high/cut Taxes Transportation/Traffic/Roads/Mass Transit Health Care Environment/Chesapeake Bay Gun Control na...na Welfare/Social Services Ethics/Confidence in Government Pro/Con Gambling Too Much Growth/Development September 11-related Concerns na...na Other Not sure Education remains the top state legislative concern of voters, but the state budget shortfall has rocketed into second position on this list, followed by concerns about the economy. Crime and traffic have both receded slightly in this latest voter survey. Regionally, big differences remain. The highest priority in Baltimore City is Crime/Drugs (31%), while Baltimore County voters are most concerned about the state s fiscal situation (20%). Montgomery County remains most focused on traffic (20%), while Prince George s voters place the priority on education (34%). Ehrlich s own voters place the highest priority on the budget crisis (21%), followed by education (16%), and cutting taxes (15%). Q5. What, in your opinion, is the most important problem facing Maryland today I mean the one you would most like to see the governor and legislature do something about?

5 Maryland Economic Outlook Rating 1/03 7/02 1/02 1/01 2/00 10/98 10/98 9/98 % % % % % % % % Better Worse Same Not sure There is increased worry about the economy, with twice as many saying the economy is getting worse as said so two years ago. The 50 to 64 age group is the most pessimistic (40% worse). African-Americans also see the economy worsening in bigger numbers than others (41%), in sharp contrast with the economic optimism that infused the African-American community in recent years. Forty-three percent of Baltimore City voters see the economy as growing worse. Q6. From what you have seen, do you think the economy in Maryland is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?

6 Own Personal Financial Situation Rating 1/03 7/02 1/02 1/01 7/98 % % % % % Better Worse Same Not sure Statistically equivalent numbers now say they are worse off as say they are better off compared to four years ago. Since July, there has been an 8-point shift toward the negative in this important economic indicator. Voters under 35, presumably in the income growth period of their careers, see their situation as improved by a four-to-one ratio (48% to 12%), and those aged are two-to-one positive (43% to 21%). Those are more likely to say worse by 5 points (29% to 24%), and seniors by 17 (28% to 11%). College grads still say they are better off by 5 points (32% to 27%), and post-graduates by 13 points (36% to 23%). Looking back four years, African-American are still more likely to say their personal situation has improved (32% better vs. 23% worse). Q7. And what about your own situation? Are you and your family financially better off, worse off, or about the same as you were four years ago?

7 Job Security Rating 1/03 1/02 % % Secure Might lose job Not employed Not sure About one worker in six in Maryland is concerned that he or she might become unemployed for economic reasons. In the past year, there has been a noticeable increase in this number, with slightly more voters indicating they are not working at all. Worry is particularly acute among non-whites, where one worker in four is currently worried about losing a job, compared to 14% of white workers who are worried. Nearly one worker in four with only a high school education is worried about job loss. Baltimore City workers are also more worried again, about one worker in four. Q8. Would you say your job is secure, or are you concerned that you might lose your job in the coming months for economic reasons, or aren t you currently employed?

8 Crime Rating 1/03 1/01 9/98 % % % Very serious Somewhat serious Not much of a problem Not sure In the aggregate, crime does not appear to have increased as a concern for voters over the last four years; slightly less than one-third are concerned about crime in their own neighborhood, and fewer than one in ten views the problem of crime as very serious. Concern about crime rises to a majority (52%) in the African-American community, with 19% calling it very serious. Crime is very much on the minds of Baltimore City voters, with 30% calling it a very serious problem, and 38% saying crime is somewhat serious. While two-thirds in the city see crime as a problem in their neighborhoods, only one in four (24%) in Baltimore County sees it that way. Q9. How serious is the problem of crime in your neighborhood? Would you say it is very serious, somewhat serious, or not much of a problem at all?

9 Serious Crime Prevention Rating 1/03 % Gun control...43 Death penalty...33 Both...5 Neither...14 Not sure...4 By a ten-point margin, strengthening gun control is viewed as a more effective preventative measure than expanding the death penalty. Support for more gun control tops an expanded death penalty among Democrats (52% to 27%) and Independents (48% to 26%), while Republicans are likely to see the death penalty as the more effective measure by 47% to 25%. By twenty points women are more likely to choose gun control (51% to 31%), while men are evenly split (36% death penalty to 35% gun control). Support for the death penalty as the preferred crime control device drops significantly as education levels rise. Greater Washington is much more a bastion of gun control sentiment (54% to 25%), compared to Greater Baltimore (38% death penalty to 37% gun control). Q10. To prevent more problems like the recent sniper crisis that affected the Washington area this fall, which of these would be more effective? (rotate): [Strengthening gun control laws, or expanding the death penalty]?

10 Moratorium on Executions Rating 1/03 1/02 1/01 % % % Favor moratorium Oppose Not sure The death penalty moratorium remains a deeply controversial issue, and attitudes on this issue do not seem to have shifted significantly in the past two years. The moratorium is more heavily favored by Democrats (53%), college graduates (54%) and post-graduates (53%), and African-Americans (67%). It also receives at least 50% support in Baltimore City (54%), Montgomery (50%), and Prince George s (56%). Greatest opposition to a moratorium is found among Republicans (63%), men (52%), voters under 35 (55%), and those with a high school degree or less (53%). Anne Arundel, Howard, and the rural parts of the state all post opposition numbers greater than 50%. Ehrlich voters are strongly opposed to a moratorium by 63% to 29%. Q11. Recently, some states have taken the step of stopping, or placing a moratorium on all executions because of questions about whether the death penalty is handed out fairly. Should Maryland place a moratorium on the death penalty while it studies this issue, or would you oppose this step?

11 Pace of Growth and Development Rating 1/03 1/01 % % Much too fast A little too fast About right Too slow Not sure Growth seems to be more of a concern today than two years ago, with one-third (32%) of the state s voters now saying the area is growing much too fast, up from 22%. All-told, about one-half of Maryland voters think the pace of growth is too fast. All parts of the state seem to be suffering from this perception, with 45% of Baltimore area voters and 55% of those in the Washington area saying growth is too fast. Rural areas are being effected, as well, with 49% in Western Maryland and 62% on the Eastern Shore and in Southern Maryland saying growth is too fast. Montgomery (62% too fast) and Prince George s (37% too fast) have somewhat different views. Only 9% in Baltimore City and 35% in Baltimore County think growth is too fast. Selected segments of the population say growth is actually too slow: African-Americans (23%), Baltimore City voters (36%), and Western Maryland voters (27%). Q12. How would you describe the pace of growth and development in your area. Would you say it is too fast, about right, or too slow? (If too fast ): Would you say much too fast or a little too fast?

12 Protect Environment vs. Economic Growth Rating 1/03 1/02 1/01 % % % Protect environment Grow economy Do both Not sure Support for environmental protection, even at the cost of some jobs, remains strong in Maryland. Nearly two-thirds of voters (64%) would opt to protect the environment at the expense of jobs. In these less robust economic times, this is a significant finding. Environmental concern runs deep in Maryland, with 52% of Republicans, for example, opting for the environment over jobs. Q13. Should the state work hard to protect the environment, even if it might cost some jobs, or is it more important to grow the economy, even if it hurts the environment?

13 Traffic Congestion in the Region Rating 1/03 1/02 1/01 % % % Not much of a problem Somewhat of a problem Major problem Crisis Not sure Traffic congestion is only worsening as a problem, as far as voters are concerned. Now 60% of the state s voters consider traffic congestion a major problem or a crisis that needs immediate attention, up from 54% one year ago. The crisis number reaches 33% in Montgomery County and 28% in Prince George s. Combining crisis and major problem, 83% in Montgomery County seem to feel severely impacted by traffic. By comparison, that combined number is 55% in Greater Baltimore and 38% in Baltimore City. Q14. Do you think traffic congestion in this region is not much of a problem, somewhat of a problem, a major problem, or a crisis that needs immediate attention?

14 Use of State Money to Provide Health Insurance Rating 1/03 1/02 1/01 % % % Favor Oppose Not sure A majority would support the use of state money to provide health insurance to all Marylanders who do not have private coverage. Support for this idea has rebounded slightly compared to one year ago. Democrats (65%), voters under 35 (64%), African-Americans (79%), and Baltimore City voters (75%) are more likely to support this idea. This idea is popular in the Townsend voter group (72%) and among those who fear they might lose their jobs (62%). Skepticism to this idea seems to be found in the suburbs of Anne Arundel (43% opposed) and Howard (46%) counties, even more than in rural areas where opposition remains below 40%. Q15. Do you think state money should be used to provide health insurance to all Marylanders who do not have private coverage, or would you oppose this?

15 Slot Machines in Maryland Rating 1/03 9/02 7/02 7/98 % % % % Favor Oppose Not sure A plurality support slot machines in Maryland, a stronger showing for slots than four years ago, but support may have weakened slightly since summer. Republicans (54%) and men (52%) are more likely to support slots, as are voters under 35 (59%), those with a high school education or less (55%), and those living in Baltimore County (56%) and Anne Arundel (59%). Opposition grows among the post-graduates (47%), non-whites (47%) and Montgomery County voters (47%). Ehrlich voters support slots 59% to 30%. Q16. Do you favor or oppose installing slot machines at horse racing tracks in Maryland?

16 Slots Rating 1/03 % Right now/general Assembly vote Next election/people decide Not sure... 7 Voters clearly want to have their say on the slots issue, with two-thirds contending the issue should be put on the ballot for the people to decide. Even slots supporters want to see the issue on the ballot, rather than having the General Assembly legalize them right now (59% to 37%). Support for giving people the choice is strongest among African Americans (77%), younger voters (74%), and voters in Western Maryland (72%). Q17. The decision of whether to legalize slots can be made right now by the General Assembly, or the question can be put on the ballot during the next election for the people to decide. Which do you think is the better way to handle the slots issue?

17 Slots Rating 1/03 % Confined to racetracks Spread Not sure Only one-quarter of voters believe slots will remain confined to racetracks once enacted. Perhaps giving a clue at least in part to their opposition, 84% of opponents believe slots will spread. A majority (54%) of slots supporters think they will spread, as well. Q18. If slots are approved, do you think they will be confined to racetracks, or will they eventually spread to other parts of the state?

18 Budget Rating 1/03 % Believe him Raise taxes anyway Not sure Fewer than one-third of voters believe Bob Ehrlich will be able to hold to his pledge not to raise taxes in the face of the large state budget shortfall. Among his own voters, 44% think he will hold to his pledge, while an equal number (44%) do not think so. Among those who list cutting taxes as their highest priority for the General Assembly this year, 46% believe Ehrlich will hold to his no new taxes pledge, while 41% think he will end up raising taxes. Townsend s voters may be bitter, or they may just be convinced that taxes must be raised. Only 14% say he will refrain from raising taxes, while 76% believe he will end up violating his pledge. Both Montgomery and Prince George s voters are the most skeptical. Nearly three-fourths in both communities believe Ehrlich will be forced to raise taxes. Q19. You may have heard that the State of Maryland is expecting a large budget shortfall this year. The new governor, Bob Ehrlich, has said that he will not approve any new taxes. Do you think he will be able to hold to that pledge, or will he end up having to raise taxes anyway during his term as governor?

19 Budget Rating 1/03 % Favor cuts...17 Look elsewhere...74 Not sure...9 Three-quarters of voters would prefer that state leaders not cut higher education spending, despite the budget crisis. There is very little support for large cuts in higher ed spending in any quarter; only 27% of Republicans and 32% of those who rate cutting taxes as their top issue would back these spending cuts. Q20. The new administration has talked about making large budget cuts so taxes do not have to be raised. Would you favor large cuts in higher education funding, or should the state look elsewhere for savings?

20 Budget Rating 1/03 % Favor cuts...17 Look elsewhere...73 Not sure...10 Much like the previous question, nearly three-quarters of voters remain committed to environmental protection spending, despite the state budget shortfall. Numbers here are equally discouraging to budget cutters; only 25% of Republicans and 30% of avid tax cutters would favor large cuts in funding for environmental protection. Q21. Would you favor large cuts in funding for environmental protection, or should the state look elsewhere for savings?

21 Budget Rating 1/03 % Favor...68 Oppose...27 Not sure...5 Two-thirds of voters would be willing to impose a temporary income tax hike on people making over $100,000 per year. This idea is popular across all age groups and educational categories, with support reaching two-thirds or more among all major demographic subgroups. Even a majority of Republicans supports the idea (51% to 43%), as does a strong majority of Ehrlich voters (57% to 38%). Q22. Ten years ago when the state was facing a similar budget problem, the income tax was raised for people making over $100,000 a year until the crisis passed, when the tax was lowered again. Would you favor or oppose a temporary income tax increase for people making over $100,000?

22 Budget Rating 1/03 % Favor...40 Oppose...56 Not sure...4 A dedicated 10 cent gasoline tax does not achieve nearly a majority of support statewide. Among those who say traffic is the state s most pressing issue, however, this 10 cent increase is supported 61% to 34%. Voters in Montgomery County, which we know are obsessed with traffic, support this increase 56% to 41%. In Prince George s County, voters are evenly divided (49% in favor, 48% against). Baltimore area voters are strongly opposed, 59% to 37%. Q23. Would you favor or oppose raising the gasoline tax by 10 cents a gallon if the money would only be used to pay for new transportation projects in the state?

23 Grade Public Schools Rating 1/03 1/02 1/01 7/98 % % % % A B C D F ( Fail ) Not sure GPA Local schools are more likely to receive a letter grade of A or B from voters than at any time in the last four years. One could venture an overall improvement in voter attitudes toward their local schools over the last four years, as illustrated by the grade point average or GPA calculated from these voter ratings. By major jurisdiction, voters give these GPA ratings to their local schools: Baltimore City 1.69, Baltimore County 2.53, Anne Arundel 2.55, Howard 2.90, Montgomery 2.74, Prince George s 1.84 Q24. Students are often given the grades of A, B, C, D, or Fail as a way to rate the quality of their work. Suppose the public schools themselves, in your community, were graded in the same way. What grade would you give the public schools in your community: A, B, C, D, or Fail?

24 Education/Schools Rating 1/03 % Delay...34 Raise Taxes...19 Major cutbacks...30 Combination...4 Not sure...14 There is no consensus on how the Thornton recommendations should be implemented, in a fiscal sense. It does appear, however, that about one-half of voters would like to see them implemented at all costs, either through increased taxes (19%), or major cutbacks elsewhere in the state budget (30%). Q25. A state task force has recommended that schools in Maryland are under-funded and should receive $147 million in new state aid this year. Should this new funding be delayed until Maryland s budget situation improves, should taxes be raised to pay for this new school aid right now, or should the governor make major cutbacks elsewhere in the state budget to pay for it?

25 Which Party Best Able to Handle Most Important State Problems? Rating 1/03 7/02 1/02 % % % Democrats Republicans Neither Both equally Not sure In a state where approximately six voters in ten are registered Democrats, that party may have lost some ground over the past year when it comes to voter confidence. The two parties are presently at parity in this crucial regard, presenting the new Republican governor with an opportunity to bring about a more permanent political realignment in the state. Democrats have more confidence in their own party by a 56% to 21% margin, while Republicans are much more loyal, 80% to 7%. Democrats are more trusted among voters who list their top issue concerns as education (45% Dem vs. 36% Repub), crime (46% to 35%) and traffic (46% to 31%). The two parties are equally trusted by voters who place the top priority on jobs (41% Dem to 40% Repub). The Republicans elicit more confidence from voters most interested in cutting taxes (60% to 25%) and solving the budget crisis (49% to 30%). Q26. Right now, who do you have more confidence in to handle the most important problems facing our state, the Democrats or the Republicans?

26 Favorability and Recognition Ratings Rating Favorable Unfavorable Net Favorable Recognition % % + % Hard % Soft % Townsend 1/ (-2) / / / / / Ehrlich 1/ / / / / / Duncan 1/ / Mikulski 1/ / / O Malley 1/ / / / Schaefer 1/ / / / Steele 1/ / (continued)

27 (continued) The downfall of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is complete as she scored her first net negative in this survey (-2%) in favorability ratings. She remains popular among Democrats and despised by Republicans (-50% net favorability). As was demonstrated during the election, there was a large disparity between the way whites and African-Americans viewed her. Whites give her a net negative rating of -14%, while African Americans give her a net positive rating of 63%. Governor-elect Bob Ehrlich is riding into office with a good deal of positive feelings from around the state. He has a net positive rating of 47% -- the highest he has enjoyed in any of our surveys. He is popular both in Greater Baltimore and Greater Washington, but is most popular in Eastern and Southern Maryland where they give him a glowing 70% positive rating. Whites (52%) view him more favorably than African Americans, but he still has a 30% net positive rating among African Americans. People who voted for Townsend are even split on what they think of Ehrlich 38% to 38%. Even with all of the television face time Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan received during the October sniper crisis, voters outside of Montgomery and Prince George s counties just don t know much about him: 63% in Greater Baltimore didn t recognize his name along with 51% in Western Maryland and 66% in Eastern and Southern Maryland. However, those that do know him tend to have a positive impression of him. He is also immensely popular in Montgomery and Prince George s counties (56% net favorable in Montgomery and 48% net favorable in Prince George s). Voters whose top issue is traffic apparently view him as their patron saint giving him a 56% to 13% favorable to unfavorable rating. Barbara Mikulski is fairly popular among most groups and across all geographic regions with a 43% net favorable rating. She is least popular in Western Maryland where her net favorability dips to 21%. Baltimore Mayor Martin O Malley continues to be highest rated politician in our survey although he barely eclipses Ehrlich in this poll. He remains immensely popular in both Baltimore City and Baltimore County with positive ratings of 71% and 76%, respectively. He is still not that well known in Montgomery and Prince George s counties where many people still don t recognize his name (47% and 41%, respectively.) Voters who identify crime as their top issue give him a very strong rating of 71%. Comptroller William Donald Schaeffer is still well-liked across the state with a net favorability rating of 44%. His lowest scores come in Montgomery County where his net favorability drops to 20%. Lt. Governor-elect Michael Steele is still not very well-known around the state. In fact, almost a third of African American voters (31%) didn t recognize his name. The same holds true in many parts of the state (43% Greater Washington; 48% Western Maryland. Q27. Now I am going to read you the names of several people. For each one, please tell me if you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression. If you don t recognize the name, don t be afraid to say so.

28 2004 Elections Rating 1/03 % Lieberman...19 Kerry...14 Edwards...9 Gephardt...9 Daschle...7 Graham...2 Sharpton...2 Dean...1 Not sure/depends...37 Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman appears to have the early edge among Maryland Democratic voters for the party s nomination in 2004, but it is still a wide open contest with 37% of those surveyed not ready to express a preference among the candidates tested. Senator John Kerry is running a close second. Q28. I know the next election is a long way off, but if the 2004 Democratic primary election for president were being held today and the candidates were (rotate) [John Kerry, Dick Gephardt, Tom Daschle, John Edwards, Joe Lieberman, Howard Dean, Bob Graham, and Al Sharpton] for whom would you vote?

29 2004 Elections Rating 1/03 % Re-elect...39 Someone else...45 Not sure/will not vote...16 Even though Maryland is a strongly Democratic state, voters are not automatically ready to kick Bush out of office after one term. In fact, nearly a quarter of Democrats are willing to re-elect him. And surprisingly 32% of voters in Montgomery are willing to re-elect him with only 50% saying that they definitely want to get rid of him. Those who say they might lose their jobs are more likely than others (58%) to say that they will vote for someone else. Q29. Does President Bush deserve to be re-elected in 2004, or are you more likely to vote for someone else for president?

30 Military Action Against Iraq Rating 1/03 10/02 9/02 % % % Favor Oppose Not sure Not surprisingly, this Democratic state does not favor President Bush s proposal to take military action against Iraq. Democrats and Republicans are virtual polar opposites on the issue with Democrats opposing Bush (61% to 27%) and Republicans supporting him (61% to 22%). Men are split just about evenly with women opposing action against Iraq by a 53% to 32% margin. African Americans are also strongly opposed 69% to 23%. Support for Bush s planned Iraqi intervention has dropped significantly in just 3 months. Q30. Do you favor or oppose the President s proposal to take military action against Iraq?

31 War and Peace Rating 1/03 % Safer...24 Less safe...19 No change...56 Not sure...1 Despite the efforts made to combat terrorism, the majority of Maryland residents do not feel much safer. A quarter of women and about 30% of African Americans actually feel less safe. There are no significant differences across the state. Q31. When it comes to terrorism, do you feel safer today than you did a year ago, do you feel less safe, or has there been no change?

32 War and Peace Rating 1/03 % Winning the war...35 Not winning...49 Not sure...16 There s not a lot of optimism about the war on terrorism unless you re a Republican and you re planning to vote to re-elect Bush in Republicans say we re winning the war 55% to 25% while Democrats say we re not winning 60% to 25%. Men are evenly split while women and African Americans express a more dour outlook 54% to 28% and 67% to 20%, respectively. Q32. Do you think President Bush is winning the war on terrorism, or not?