LECTURE 10: LEADERSHIP, INCENTIVES, AND PROMOTION 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 1

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1 LECTURE 10: LEADERSHIP, INCENTIVES, AND PROMOTION 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 1

2 National Leaders Matter Source: Jones and Olken(2005) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 2

3 Sudden Death of National Leaders: Assassination, hit or miss? Source: Jones and Olken(2009) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 3

4 What do you mean by death or 万岁万岁万万岁? Source: Besley, Persson, and Ryenal-Querol(2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 4

5 Local Leaders and Elite Capture: Chiefs in Sierra Leone 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 5

6 Distribution of the Number of Ruling Families in 149 Chieftaincies Source: Acemoglu, Reed, and Robinson (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 6

7 The Number of Families and the Concentration of Power Source: Acemoglu, Reed, and Robinson (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 7

8 The Number of Families and Local Human Capital Source: Acemoglu, Reed, and Robinson (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 8

9 Regular Government Officials:Incentives Money Power Promotion and Career 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 9

10 升官发财 ; 固定收入之俸禄 : 小部分 SOURCE: 张仲礼 (2001) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 10

11 升官发财 ; 固定收入之养廉 : 中小部分 SOURCE: 张仲礼 (2001) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 11

12 升官发财 ; 利用消费和捐赠估计实际收入 SOURCE: 张仲礼 (2001) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 12

13 The Wealth Growth of Indian Parliamentarians: Source: Fisman, Schulz, and Vig (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 13

14 More Lucrative Positions Source: Fisman, Schulz, and Vig (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 14

15 Incumbents v.s. First-time Winners Source: Fisman, Schulz, and Vig (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 15

16 More Lucrative Positions Source: Fisman, Schulz, and Vig (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 16

17 Incumbents v.s. First-time Winners Source: Fisman, Schulz, and Vig (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 17

18 High Wage, Better Applicants for Government Jobs: An Experiment in Mexico Source: Bo, Finan, and Rossi (2013) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 18

19 Higher IQ as Well Source: Bo, Finan, and Rossi (2013) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 19

20 Highly Motivated for Public Service Source: Bo, Finan, and Rossi (2013) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 20

21 Acceptance Rate and Municipal Characteristics Source: Bo, Finan, and Rossi (2013) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 21

22 Incentives: the Lure of Power 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 22

23 Promotion of Provincial Leaders in China: GDP Growth Source: Li and Zhou (2005) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 23

24 Promotion of Provincial Leaders in China: GDP Growth and Connections Source: Jia, Kudamatsu, and Seim (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 24

25 Pollution for Promotion Source: Jia (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 25

26 The Tragedy of the Nomenklatura: the Great Leap Famine Source: Kung and Chen (2011) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 26

27 中央候补委员 v.s. 委员 Source: Kung and Chen (2011) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 27

28 What about Election as a Mechanism of Selecting Right People? Village Elections and Public Goods Expenditures in China Source: Martinez-Bravo et. al. (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 28

29 Financed by Villagers: Evidence of More Accountability? Source: Martinez-Bravo et. al. (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 29

30 Legacy of Local Officials from the Old System to New Democracies Election v.s. Appointment Source: Martinez-Bravo (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 30

31 The Risk of the Separating Equilibrium Source: Martinez-Bravo (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 31

32 Extra Readings 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 32

33 Extra Readings 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 33

34 References Acemoglu, Daron, Tristan Reed, and James A. Robinson. "Chiefs: Economic Development and Elite Control of Civil Society in Sierra Leone." Journal of Political Economy (2014): Besley, Timothy, Torsten Persson, and Marta Reynal-Querol, "Resilient Leaders and Institutional Reform: Theory and Evidence. Mimeo, (2014). Dal Bó, Ernesto, Frederico Finan, and Martín A. Rossi. "Strengthening State Capabilities: The Role of Financial Incentives in the Call to Public Service." Quarterly Journal of Economics (2013): Fehr, Ernst, Holger Herz, and Tom Wilkening. "The Lure of Authority: Motivation and Incentive Effects of Power." American Economic Review (2013): Fisman, Raymond, Florian Schulz, and Vikrant Vig, The Private Returns to Public Office Journal of Political Economy (2014), Jia, Ruixue, Pollution for Promotion, Mimeo, University of California, San Diego (2014) Jia, Ruixue, Masayuki Kudamatsu, and David Seim, Political Selection in China: the Complementary Roles of Connections and Performance. Journal of the European Economic Association, forthcoming. 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 34

35 References Jones, Benjamin F., and Benjamin A. Olken. "Do leaders matter? National leadership and growth since World War II." Quarterly Journal of Economics (2005): Jones, Benjamin F., and Benjamin A. Olken. "Hit or miss? The effect of assassinations on institutions and war." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (2009): Kung, James Kai-sing, and Shuo Chen. "The tragedy of the Nomenklatura: Career incentives and political radicalism during China's great leap famine." American Political Science Review (2011): Li, Hongbin and Li-An Zhou, `Political turnover and economic performance: the incentive role of personnel control in China', Journal of Public Economics 89.9 (2005), Martinez-Bravo, Monica. "The Role of Local Officials in New Democracies: Evidence from Indonesia." American Economic Review, (2014): Martinez-Bravo, Monica, Gerard Padrói Miquel, Nancy Qian, and Yang Yao, Elections in China, Mimeo (2014) 张仲礼, 中国绅士的收入, 上海社会科学院出版社,2001 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 35