LECTURE 5: CIVIL CONFLICTS AND WARS I 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 1

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1 LECTURE 5: CIVIL CONFLICTS AND WARS I 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 1

2 Proportion Of Countries With Civil War Or Conflict, SOURCE: BLATTMAN AND MIGUEL (2010) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 2

3 By Year: SOURCE: BLATTMAN AND MIGUEL (2010) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 3

4 Number Of State-based Conflicts, By Type SOURCE: PINKER (2012) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 4

5 Incidence Of Civil War And GDP Per Capita SOURCE: BLATTMAN AND MIGUEL (2010) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 5

6 Conflicts In 2008 (Dark Area: The Poorest Billion People) SOURCE: PINKER (2012) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 6

7 Conflicts And Ethnicity Polarization or Fractionalization: SOURCE: ESTEBAN, MAYORAL, AND RAY (2012) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 7

8 Ethnic Diversity And Civil Wars SOURCE: MONTALVO AND REYNAL-QUEROL (2005) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 8

9 Class (income Inequality) or Ethnicity? 广东人革命, 浙江人出钱, 湖南人卖命? Inequality within an ethnicity group. The fundamental difficulty of class conflicts (Esteban and Ray, 2008): poor people do not have resources, and rich people do not have incentives. 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 9

10 近代广东福建的宗族与阶级 SOURCE: 魏斐德 (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 10

11 Our Focus On Income Weather shocks Technology shocks Price shocks Foreign aid shocks Institutional shocks Group difference plus income shock More on within-country evidence, instead of cross-country evidence 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 11

12 Weather Shock I: 41 African Countries, Rainfall economic growth conflict First-stage SOURCE: MIGUEL, SATYANATH, SERGENTI (2004) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 12

13 Residual Regression SOURCE: MIGUEL, SATYANATH, SERGENTI (2004) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 13

14 Reduced Form: Conflicts On Rainfall SOURCE: MIGUEL, SATYANATH, SERGENTI (2004) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 14

15 Rainfall And Witch Killing In Rural Tanzania, SOURCE: MIGUEL (2005) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 15

16 降水与游牧民族对中原的进攻, 前 SOURCE: BAI AND KUNG (2011) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 16

17 TECH SHOCK: 番薯引入降低了灾害对农民起义的影响 SOURCE: JIA (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 17

18 自然灾害和农民起义, 249 次, SOURCE: JIA (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 18

19 天灾与粮价上涨 SOURCE: JIA (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 19

20 番薯引入与农民起义 SOURCE: JIA (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 20

21 Discussion: Income Effect On Conflict Lower opportunity cost? Higher potential loots? Inequality? Hope? 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 21

22 Different Price Shocks In Columbia SOURCE: DUBE AND VARGAS (2013) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 22

23 Lower Coffee Price (Labor-intensive Sector), Poorer, More Conflicts SOURCE: DUBE AND VARGAS (2013) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 23

24 Higher Oil Price, Higher Potential Plunder, More Conflicts SOURCE: DUBE AND VARGAS (2013) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 24

25 MECHANISM: SOURCE: DUBE AND VARGAS (2013) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 25

26 Foreign-aid SHOCK Not only ineffective, but actually promoting conflict Aid stealing, over long distance transportation Difficult to say: More conflicts call for more aids? More conflicts reduce foreign governments aid, because of some political reasons? 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 26

27 Nunn And Qian(2014): 125 Non-OECD Countries, Time variation in U.S. wheat production Country s likelihood of being a US food aid recipient The interaction as an IV Reduced-form is a DID. 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 27

28 More Wheat Production, More Stock in the U.S. SOURCE: Nunn And Qian(2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 28

29 More STOCK, MORE AID SOURCE: Nunn And Qian (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 29

30 Reduced-form Results, By Type Of Countries SOURCE: Nunn And Qian (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 30

31 Aid And Conflicts: RD Evidence From Philippines, Community-driven development (CDD) programs to areas with civil conflicts RD: eligibility --- poorest 25% of municipalities in participating provinces SOURCE: CROST, FELTER, AND JOHNSTON (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 31

32 Program Participation And The Running Variable SOURCE: CROST, FELTER, AND JOHNSTON (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 32

33 Timing Of The Conflicts Suggests Sabotage: SOURCE: CROST, FELTER, AND JOHNSTON (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 33

34 Insurgent-initiated V.S. Government-initiated SOURCE: CROST, FELTER, AND JOHNSTON (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 34

35 Lee Test: SOURCE: CROST, FELTER, AND JOHNSTON (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 35

36 INSTITUTIONAL SHOCK: 取消科举与参加革命 262 市, 取消科举前后, 年科举名额多的地方, 受影响大参加革命党的人多更可能是响应辛亥革命的地方 SOURCE: BAI AND JIA (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 36

37 清朝科举 SOURCE: BAI AND JIA (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 37

38 科举名额 SOURCE: BAI AND JIA (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 38

39 科举名额 SOURCE: BAI AND JIA (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 39

40 1277 名 乱党 : 姓名, 籍贯, 入会日期 兴中会军国民教育会华兴会光复会同盟会日知会 SOURCE: BAI AND JIA (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 40

41 进士与官员数目和名额, 废除前 SOURCE: BAI AND JIA (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 41

42 废除前后 SOURCE: BAI AND JIA (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 42

43 革命党 SOURCE: BAI AND JIA (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 43

44 科举名额与革命党人数, 废除前后 SOURCE: BAI AND JIA (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 44

45 日本留学生的作用 SOURCE: BAI AND JIA (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 45

46 不是光爱惹事儿 : 义和团 V.S. 辛亥革命 SOURCE: BAI AND JIA (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 46

47 也不是受灾饿的 SOURCE: BAI AND JIA (2014) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 47

48 Long-time Trend Of Wars, SOURCE: PINKER (2012) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 48

49 The Decline Of Violence: Six Trends 1. The Pacification Process: hunting and gathering to agricultural civilizations 2. The Civilization Process: the late Middle Ages to the 20 th century 3. The Humanitarian Process: the European Enlightenment 4. The Long Peace: since the end of World War II 5. The New Peace: since the end of the Cold War in The Rights Revolution: since the Declaration of Human Rights in 1948 SOURCE: PINKER (2012) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 49

50 The Decline Of Violence: Five Inner Demons 1. Predatory or Instrumental Violence 2. Dominance 3. Revenge 4. Sadism 5. Ideology SOURCE: PINKER (2012) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 50

51 The Decline Of Violence: Four Better Angels 1. Empathy 2. Self-control 3. Moral Sense 4. Reason SOURCE: PINKER (2012) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 51

52 The Decline Of Violence: Five Historical Forces 1. Leviathan 2. Commerce 3. Feminization 4. Cosmopolitanism 5. Escalator of Reason SOURCE: PINKER (2012) 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 52

53 Extra Readings 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 53

54 References Bai, Ying, and James Kai-sing Kung. "Climate Shocks and Sino-nomadic Conflict." Review of Economics and Statistics 93.3 (2011): Bai, Ying, and Ruixue Jia, Social Mobility and Revolution: The Impact of the Abolition of China's Civil Service Exam System, Mimeo, UCSD (2014) Blattman, Christopher, and Edward Miguel. "Civil War." Journal of Economic Literature (2010): Crost, Benjamin, Joseph Felter, and Patrick Johnston "Aid under Fire: Development Projects and Civil Conflict." American Economic Review 104(6): Dube, Oeindrila, and Juan F. Vargas. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia." Review of Economic Studies 80.4 (2013): Esteban, Joan, and Debraj Ray. "On the Salience of Ethnic Conflict." American Economic Review (2008): Esteban, Joan, Laura Mayoral, and Debraj Ray. "Ethnicity and Conflict: An Empirical Study." American Economic Review, (2012): Esteban, Joan, Laura Mayoral, and Debraj Ray. "Ethnicity and Conflict: Theory and Facts." Science (2012): 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 54

55 References Jia, Ruixue, Weather Shocks, Sweet Potatoes and Peasant Revolts in Historical China, Economic Journal 124 (2014): Miguel, Edward. "Poverty and Witch Killing." Review of Economic Studies 72.4 (2005): Miguel, Edward, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach." Journal of Political Economy (2004): Montalov, Jose, and Reynal-Querol, Marta. "Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars." American Economic Review 95.3 (2005): Nunn, Nathan, and Nancy Qian. "US Food Aid and Civil Conflict." American Economic Review (2014): Pinker, Steven. The Better Angels of Our Nature: a History of Violence and Humanity. Penguin, 复旦大学 2014 年秋公共经济学研究兰小欢 55