Copyright 2015 January 16-18, Interviews NY 11 Viability Survey 7557 Margin of Error: +/- 4.9%

Transcription

1 Copyright 2015 January 16-18, Interviews NY 11 Viability Survey 7557 Margin of Error: +/- 4.9% S1. Are you at least 18 years old and registered to vote at this address [READ ADDRESS]? Yes % No... - Don't know/refused... - S2. As you may know, Congressman Michael Grimm has resigned from Congress and there will be a special election to replace him. Since there will be no election for other offices like President, Governor, or Senator at that time, many people will not vote. How likely are you to vote in the special election for Congress? Will you definitely vote in this special election, probably vote, are the chances 50-50, will you probably not vote, or will you definitely not vote? S3. Some people don't pay much attention to political campaigns, but how interested are you personally in the political campaigns this year? Definitely... 74% Probably Chances Probably not... - Definitely not... - Don't know/refused... - Extremely interested... 31% Very interested Somewhat interested Not that interested... 1 Don't Know/Refused... - P1. No matter how you are planning to vote, when it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as a strong Democrat, a not very strong Democrat, a strong Republican, a not very strong Republican, or an Independent? [IF INDEPENDENT/DON'T KNOW] Do you think of yourself as closer to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party? Strong Democrat... 25% Weak Democrat... 9 Independent / Closer to the Democrats... 8 Independent Independent / Closer to the Republicans Weak Republican... 9 Strong Republican VOL: (Don't Know/Refused)... 1 DEMOCRAT (NET)... 34% INDEPENDENT (NET) REPUBLICAN (NET) DEMOCRAT W/ LEANERS (NET)... 42% REPUBLICAN W/ LEANERS (NET) Q1. And regardless of which political party you identify with... If an election for Congress was today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? [IF UNDECIDED] If you had to choose based on party alone, toward which candidate would you lean? Democratic candidate... 22% Lean Democratic candidate... 8 Republican candidate Lean Republican candidate... 9 VOL: (Undecided/Refused) DEMOCRAT (NET)... 30% REPUBLICAN (NET)... 42

2 Global Strategy Group 7557 NY 11 Viability Survey Page 2/8 I'm going to read you a list of people and groups. For each, please tell me if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or strongly unfavorable opinion of them. If you haven't heard of one, just tell me and we'll move on. FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE Strong Some Some Strong (CR) NH (DK/Ref.) FAV UNFAV FAMILIAR Andrew Cuomo... 31% * 1 69% [FORM A] Michael Bloomberg... 28% * 1 65% [FORM B] Chuck Schumer... 25% % [FORM B] Guy Molinari... 21% % Dan Donovan... 25% % Michael McMahon... 17% * 45% [FORM B] Republicans in Congress... 21% % Barack Obama... 21% * 44% Michael Grimm... 21% % [FORM A] Democrats in Congress... 9% % Michael Cusick... 14% % [FORM A] John Boehner... 8% * 35% [FORM B] Nancy Pelosi... 11% * 32% Bill de Blasio... 9% % [FORM A] Shelly Silver... 4% % NET V1. If the special election for Congress was today, for which candidate would you vote - Democrat Michael Cusick or Republican Dan Donovan? [IF UNDECIDED] But if you had to decide today, which way would you lean? Michael Cusick... 21% Lean Michael Cusick... 8 Dan Donovan Lean Dan Donovan... 8 VOL: (Undecided/Refused) CUSICK (NET)... 28% DONOVAN (NET) Thinking about something else... As you may know, Governor Andrew Cuomo will pick a date for the special election for Congress to be held. [SOME/OTHER] people say that the special election should be held this November when elections are normally held, which will save millions of dollars in costs and encourage more people to vote. [SOME/OTHER] people say that the special election should be held as soon as possible this spring because we need a representative in Congress to fight for local priorities, like Sandy recovery, toll reduction, and prescription drug abuse. Q13. How about you? Do you think the special election should be held this November when elections are normally held or as soon as possible this spring? [IF DON'T KNOW/REFUSED] But if you had to choose? [IF ANSWER] Do you feel that way strongly or just somewhat? VOL: November - strongly... 23% November - somewhat... 7 As soon as possible - somewhat As soon as possible - strongly (Undecided/Refused)... 3 NOVEMBER (NET)... 30% AS SOON AS POSSIBLE (NET)... 67

3 Global Strategy Group 7557 NY 11 Viability Survey Page 3/8 Now I'm going to read you brief profiles of the candidates in the special election for Congress, and then I'd like to get your opinion of them. [SPLIT A - LOCAL PROFILE] Democrat Michael Cusick has spent his life on Staten Island, and has a record of delivering results for our community. Cusick is a fighter for our community in the State Assembly, providing real relief for crushing tolls in Staten Island and South Brooklyn, creating a prescription drug monitoring program to prevent abuse and make treatment more affordable, and restoring school buses for our seventh and eighth graders. In Congress, Cusick will make sure that Staten Island and South Brooklyn has an experienced problem solver fighting for us on local issues like Sandy recovery, economic development, and transportation. [SPLIT B - NOT TYPICAL DEMOCRAT] Michael Cusick is a common-sense moderate who has a track record of working with Republicans and Democrats to get things done. In the State Assembly, Cusick worked across party lines to pass four on-time, balanced budgets in a row and cap property taxes for middle class homeowners. In Congress, Cusick will stand up to Democrats, Republicans, special interests, and anyone else standing in the way of progress for our community. He will fight to end wasteful spending, grow our economy, and make it more affordable for middle class families to live and work in Staten Island and South Brooklyn. Q14. In your opinion, is this a very appealing profile for a candidate, a somewhat appealing profile, or is it not that appealing? Total Local Not Typical Very appealing... 46% 41% 51% Somewhat appealing Not that appealing VOL: (Don't Know/Refused) Republican Dan Donovan has served our community for 25 years, currently as Staten Island's District Attorney. As the chief law enforcement officer on Staten Island, Donovan has made our community safer by aggressively prosecuting drunk drivers, toughening laws against domestic violence offenders, and creating a national prescription drug database. In Congress, Donovan will be committed to cutting spending, limiting the role of government, and restoring fiscal sanity in Washington. Donovan will always put local interest firsts, standing up to Republicans and Democrats if their interests get in the way of those of Staten Island and Brooklyn. Q15. In your opinion, is this a very appealing profile for a candidate, a somewhat appealing profile, or is it not that appealing? Very appealing... 49% Somewhat appealing Not that appealing VOL: (Don't Know/Refused)... 1 V2. During surveys like this, sometimes people change their minds after learning new information. Now that you have heard those profiles... If the special election for Congress was today, for which candidate would you vote - Democrat Michael Cusick or Republican Dan Donovan? [IF UNDECIDED] But if you had to decide today, which way would you lean? Total Local Not Typical Michael Cusick... 24% 26% 22% Lean Michael Cusick Dan Donovan Lean Dan Donovan VOL: (Undecided/Refused) CUSICK (NET)... 33% DONOVAN (NET) Q16. As you may know, Dan Donovan was the District Attorney in charge of prosecuting the Eric Garner case, where a grand jury declined to indict the police officer who was accused of killing Garner in a chokehold on Staten Island. How much would you say you have seen, read, or heard about the Eric Garner case - a lot, some, not too much, or nothing at all? A lot... 87% Some Not too much... 2 Nothing at all... 1 VOL: (Don't know/refused)... 1 A LOT/SOME (NET)... 97% NOT MUCH/AT ALL (NET)... 2

4 Global Strategy Group 7557 NY 11 Viability Survey Page 4/8 Q17. And based on what you know now, would you say you agree or disagree with the grand jury's decision not to indict the police officer who was accused of killing Garner in a chokehold on Staten Island? [IF AGREE/DISAGREE] Do you [AGREE/DISAGREE] strongly or just somewhat? Agree - Strongly... 36% Agree - Somewhat Disagree - Somewhat... 8 Disagree - Strongly VOL: (Don't know/refused) AGREE (NET)... 50% DISAGREE (NET) Now I would like to read you statements from supporters and opponents of Donovan's handling of the case, and after I'm done, get your opinion on what you've heard. Donovan s supporters say that the jurors made an informed decision not to indict the police officer based on clear and balanced evidence in the case. Donovan did his job thoroughly and responsibly, and critics are upset because they do not agree with the jury s decision, not because Donovan did anything wrong. [SPLIT A - PERFORMANCE] Donovan s opponents say that no matter your opinion of the case, Donovan failed at his job to get an indictment, even if he did not personally agree with the charge. Then, Donovan has refused to comment in detail or release information about his handling of the case to the public to answer questions about his performance. [SPLIT B - DIVISIVE] Donovan s opponents say that no matter your opinion of the case, Donovan s handling of it has divided our community. Instead of clearing the police officer of wrong-doing or bringing the case to an open, public trial, Donovan s secretive approach has led to protests and bad feelings on both sides without a way to bring our community back to normal. Q18. Having heard this, would you say you approve or disapprove Dan Donovan's handling of the Eric Garner case? [IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE] Do you strongly [APPROVE/DISAPROVE] or just somewhat? Total Performance Divisive Strongly approve... 38% 37% 39% Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove VOL: (Don't know/refused) APPROVE (NET)... 57% DISAPPROVE (NET) V3. And once again, if the special election for Congress was today, for which candidate would you vote - Democrat Michael Cusick or Republican Dan Donovan? [IF UNDECIDED] But if you had to decide today, which way would you lean? Total Performance Divisive Michael Cusick... 24% 26% 22% Lean Michael Cusick Dan Donovan Lean Dan Donovan VOL: (Undecided/Refused) CUSICK (NET)... 33% DONOVAN (NET)

5 Global Strategy Group 7557 NY 11 Viability Survey Page 5/8 Now I'm going to read some statements from opponents of Dan Donovan, and I'd like to know whether each one raises for you about voting for him. Here's the first statement... Major Minor No real [PLEA BARGAINS] Dan Donovan has a history of making plea bargains that let violent criminals, drug dealers, and child pornographers off the hook. Donovan made a no jail time deal with a worker at a mental institution who killed an autistic man under his care. And Donovan even made a plea deal with a man accused of murder in 2005 who is now wanted for killing another man on Staten Island % [ABORTION] Dan Donovan is out of touch when it comes to women's health care. Donovan opposes a woman's right to choose, and been endorsed by ultra-conservative anti-choice groups in previous elections % [POLICE] Dan Donovan has not done enough to stand up for law enforcement in our community. Donovan repeatedly let criminals who attacked the police off with reduced sentences. Donovan even made a plea deal with a man who shot and killed a retired port authority police officer % [FORM A] [ORGANIZED CRIME] Dan Donovan was caught accepting $1,500 from a mobconnected waste management company that received millions of dollars in government contracts under his watch. Under pressure, Donovan was forced to return those contributions, but he kept an additional $5,000 in donations from other mob-connected people and companies in the same period % [FORM B] [DRUG ABUSE] As Staten Island District Attorney, Dan Donovan is responsible for keeping our families safe. But under Donovan's leadership, Staten Island has become the center of a runaway prescription drug and heroin epidemic. Since Donovan started as DA, there has been an increase in serious crimes like robbery and murder, and hundreds of Staten Islanders have died from overdoses % [FORM B] [PADDING] Dan Donovan has a history of putting our community at risk to help his political career. Donovan has been accessed of "cherry-picking the cases that go to trial" to pick more winnable cases that boost his success rate, according to the Staten Island Advance. That means criminals with more difficult cases are let off the hook % [TAXES] Republicans in Congress are funded by billionaire special interests [FORM A ONLY] like the Koch brothers who want favorable treatment from the government for personal gain, and Dan Donovan is no exception. In Congress, Donovan will support the special interests who rig the system against average Americans and vote with the Republicans to give millionaires tax cuts and shift the burden onto the middle class % With Koch Brothers 33% Without Koch Brothers 34% [WALL STREET] Dan Donovan will put Wall Street and the very wealthy before the middle class. Donovan has received over $300,000 in contributions from the financial services industry and other Wall Street special interests. In Congress, Donovan will vote with the financial sector to weaken the regulations on big banks that protect consumers and the economy from the kinds of unfair loans, high interest rates, and scams that led to the Great Recession % (DK/Ref.)

6 Global Strategy Group 7557 NY 11 Viability Survey Page 6/8 Now I'm going to read some statements from opponents of Dan Donovan, and I'd like to know whether each one raises for you about voting for him. Here's the first statement... Major Minor No real [HATE CRIMES] Dan Donovan is not doing enough about hate crimes in our community. Under Donovan's watch, hate crimes have increased on Staten Island. And in several incidents, Donovan has dropped or lost cases involving hate crimes charges % [FORM A] [CRIME] As Staten Island District Attorney, Dan Donovan is responsible for keeping our families safe. But last year, there were more murders, rapes, and robberies on Staten Island than when Donovan started as DA according to New York City crime statistics, while these crimes across New York City fell by 21% over that time % [GARNER] Dan Donovan let our community down on the Eric Garner case. First, Donovan failed to effectively do his job in presenting the case to the grand jury. Instead of clearing the police officer of wrong-doing or bringing the case to an open, public trial, Donovan's secretive approach has led to protests and bad feelings on both sides without a way to bring our community back to normal % (DK/Ref.) V4. Now that you have heard the statements, if the special election for Congress was today, for which candidate would you vote - Democrat Michael Cusick or Republican Dan Donovan? [IF UNDECIDED] But if you had to decide today, which way would you lean? Michael Cusick... 29% Lean Michael Cusick Dan Donovan Lean Dan Donovan... 6 VOL: (Undecided/Refused) CUSICK (NET)... 39% DONOVAN (NET) Q27. Regardless of who you support In your own words, what is the best reason to vote against Dan Donovan in the special election for Congress?

7 Global Strategy Group 7557 NY 11 Viability Survey Page 7/8 Now I'm going to read a statement from opponents of Mike Cusick, and I'd like to know whether it raises for you about voting for him. Here it is... Michael Cusick is a typical Democrat who has voted for more taxes and more wasteful spending. In his 12 years in the Assembly, Cusick has voted to raise taxes dozens of times, including increases in the income tax, soda tax, and cigarette tax. At the same time, Cusick sponsored at least $400,000 in wasteful pork barrel spending. And even though Cusick has earned more than $500,000 in taxpayer money since he joined the Assembly, he refused to stand up to a plan that would raise his own salary. Cusick will just be another vote for the Democrat's tax-and-spend agenda and bring more dysfunction in Congress. Q28. Does this raise for you about voting for Mike Cusick, or does it not raise? [IF RAISES DOUBTS] And does it raise major or just minor? Raises -Major... 34% Raises -Minor Does not raise VOL: (Don't Know/Refused)... 4 V5. One final time, if the special election for Congress was today, for which candidate would you vote - Democrat Michael Cusick or Republican Dan Donovan? [IF UNDECIDED] But if you had to decide today, which way would you lean? Michael Cusick... 27% Lean Michael Cusick... 9 Dan Donovan Lean Dan Donovan... 6 VOL: (Undecided/Refused) CUSICK (NET)... 36% DONOVAN (NET) Now I have just a few final questions for statistical purposes. D101. In what year were you born? % VOL: (Refused)... 9 D102. What is the last grade of school or level of education you completed? Did not complete high school... 1% Graduated high school Attended technical/vocational school... 1 Attended some college but no degree Graduated two-year college with Associate's degree Graduated four-year college with Bachelor's degree Obtained Master's, PhD, or other professional degree (MD, DMD, etc.) VOL: (Refused)... 2 D103. Are you or is anyone in your household an active or retired member of a labor union? Yes-Respondent... 27% Yes-Household No VOL: (Refused)... 1

8 Global Strategy Group 7557 NY 11 Viability Survey Page 8/8 D105. When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as: Very liberal... 7% Somewhat liberal Moderate Somewhat conservative Very conservative VOL: (Refused)... 4 LIBERAL (NET)... 21% CONSERVATIVE (NET) D300. To ensure we have a representative sample, could you please tell me your race? Black/African-American... 7% White/Caucasian Hispanic/Latino... 9 Asian-American... 5 Native American... * Other (SPECIFY)... 1 VOL: (Refused)... 5 D311. Thinking of your socio-economic status, would you describe yourself as working class, middle class, or as affluent? [IF MIDDLE CLASS] Would you describe yourself as lower middle class, upper middle class, or somewhere in between? Working class... 26% Lower middle class... 8 Middle class Upper middle class Affluent... 1 VOL: (Don't Know/Refused)... 4 WORKING/LOWER MIDDLE CLASS (NET)... 34% MIDDLE CLASS (NET) UPPER MIDDLE CLASS/AFFLUENT (NET) Gender [BY OBSERVATION] Male... 47% Female Region [FROM SAMPLE] Brooklyn - New... 8% Brooklyn - Part of Old Staten Island - AD Staten Island - AD Staten Island - AD Staten Island - AD Party Registration [FROM SAMPLE] Democrat... 49% Independent Republican... 33