Copyright 2018 January 26-30, Interviews Jan. Monuments Survey MT-AL Margin of Error: +/- 4.9%

Transcription

1 Copyright 2018 January 26-30, Interviews Jan. Monuments Survey MT-AL Margin of Error: +/- 4.9% S1. Are you at least 18 years old and registered to vote at [ADDRESS]? Yes % No... - VOL: (Don't know)... - S3. As you may know, there will be an election for U.S. Senate and U.S. Congress in November. How likely are you to vote in the November election for U.S. Congress: Will you definitely vote, probably vote, are the chances 50-50, probably not vote, or definitely not vote? Definitely... 86% Probably... 9 Chances Probably not... - Definitely not... - VOL: (Don't Know/Refused)... 1 P1. No matter how you may be planning to vote, when it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as a strong Democrat, not very strong Democrat, strong Republican, not very strong Republican, or Independent? [IF INDEPENDENT/DON'T KNOW] Do you think of yourself as closer to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party? Strong Democrat... 21% Weak Democrat... 6 Independent / Closer to the Democrats Independent... 8 Independent / Closer to the Republicans Weak Republican... 4 Strong Republican VOL: (Don't know/refused)... 2 DEMOCRAT ()... 26% INDEPENDENT () REPUBLICAN () DEMOCRAT W/ LEANERS ()... 39% REPUBLICAN W/ LEANERS () Now I have a list of names, and I would like to get your opinion of each one. Just let me know if there's one you haven't heard of... Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [ITEM]? [IF FAVORABLE] And is your opinion very favorable or somewhat favorable? [IF UNFAVORABLE] And is your opinion very unfavorable or somewhat unfavorable? FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE Very Somewhat Somewhat Very CR NH (DK/Ref.) FAV UNFAV FAMILIAR [FORM A] National monuments.. 61% % 8 93 Montana's public lands... 64% % 4 90 Upper River Missouri Breaks National Monument... 44% % 8 72 [FORM B] oil and gas industry... 29% % Donald Trump... 35% % Greg Gianforte... 23% % 45 89

2 Global Strategy Group Jan. Monuments Survey MT-AL Page 2/7 Now I have a list of names, and I would like to get your opinion of each one. Just let me know if there's one you haven't heard of... Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [ITEM]? [IF FAVORABLE] And is your opinion very favorable or somewhat favorable? [IF UNFAVORABLE] And is your opinion very unfavorable or somewhat unfavorable? FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE Very Somewhat Somewhat Very CR NH (DK/Ref.) FAV UNFAV FAMILIAR The Bears Ears National Monument... 24% % 6 46 The Grand Staircase- Escalante National Monument.. 23% % 7 44 V1. If the November election for U.S. Congress was today, would you vote to re-elect Republican Greg Gianforte or would you vote for a new candidate to replace Gianforte as your Congressperson? [IF CHOICE] Would you definitely or probably vote to [RE-ELECT/REPLACE] Greg Gianforte as your Congressperson? Definitely re-elect... 28% Probably re-elect Probably replace... 9 Definitely replace Don't know/refused RE-ELECT ()... 41% REPLACE () I am now going to read you some descriptions. For each, please tell me whether you think it describes Greg Gianforte very well, somewhat well, not very well, or not well at all. Here's the first one. [ITEM]. From your perspective, does that describe Gianforte very well, somewhat well, not too well, or not well at all? NOT [FORM A] Too close to Republicans in Congress... 37% % 17 [FORM B] Just votes the party line... 41% % 17 [FORM B] Too close to President Trump... 36% % 29 [FORM A] Too close to special interests... 32% % 35 [FORM B] Hasn't done enough to protect access to public lands... 37% % 30 [FORM A] Understands the importance of conserving public lands... 20% % 40 Very Some Not very Not at all DK/Ref. NOT 11. Changing topics a little... In general, how important do you think it is to preserve public lands in Montana? Very important... 76% Somewhat important Not that important... 2 Not important at all... 2 Don't know/refused... 2 IMPORTANT ()... 94% NOT IMPORTANT ()... 4

3 Global Strategy Group Jan. Monuments Survey MT-AL Page 3/7 12. And how important do you think it is to preserve full federal protections on areas that are currently designated as national monuments? Very important... 61% Somewhat important Not that important... 6 Not important at all... 8 Don't know/refused... 1 IMPORTANT ()... 85% NOT IMPORTANT () As you may know, President Trump recently signed executive orders that cut roughly two million acres from two national monuments in Utah, removing federal protections against development, mining, and drilling on these public lands. Trump's recent executive orders are the largest rollback of federal land protections in the nation's history. 13. Having heard this, do you support or oppose President Trump's recent executive orders to roll back federal land protections? [IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE] Is that strongly [SUPPORT/OPPOSE] or just somewhat? Strongly support... 30% Somewhat support Somewhat oppose... 8 Strongly oppose VOL: (Don't know/refused)... 5 SUPPORT ()... 42% OPPOSE () As you may know, Congress is now considering laws similar to Donald Trump's recent executive orders. These new laws would reduce the size of the Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante national monuments in Utah, and give presidents the power to lift protections for public lands with the stroke of a pen. 14. Do you support or oppose new laws that would reduce the size of these two national monuments and give presidents the power to lift protections for public lands with the stroke of a pen? [IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE] Is that strongly [SUPPORT/OPPOSE] or just somewhat? Strongly support... 21% Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose VOL: (Don't know/refused)... - SUPPORT ()... 39% OPPOSE () And how willing would you be to take action to stop these laws from passing, such as posting on social media, signing a petition, or contacting an elected official? Very willing... 33% Somewhat willing Not that willing Not willing at all Don't know/refused... 2 WILLING ()... 62% NOT WILLING () If this were all you knew about two candidates for Congress next year... If you had a choice next year between voting for a candidate who supports these new laws to roll back protections on public lands or a candidate who opposes these new laws to roll back protections on public lands, which candidate would you vote for? [IF UNDECIDED] But if you had to decide today just based on these descriptions, which way would you lean? Candidate who supports rolling back protections... 29% Lean candidate who supports rolling back protections... 4 Candidate who opposes rolling back protections Lean candidate who opposes rolling back protections... 4 VOL: (Undecided/Refused) SUPPORTS ROLL BACK ()... 34% OPPOSES ROLL BACK ()... 53

4 Global Strategy Group Jan. Monuments Survey MT-AL Page 4/7 As you may know, there is currently a ban on uranium mining on the land around the Grand Canyon in Arizona. The federal government has announced that it is considering lifting this ban and allowing uranium mining around the Grand Canyon. 17. Having heard this, do you support or oppose the proposal to lift the ban on mining near the Grand Canyon and open this land up to uranium mining? [IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE] Is that strongly [SUPPORT/OPPOSE] or just somewhat? Strongly support... 20% Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose VOL: (Don't know/refused)... 8 SUPPORT ()... 35% OPPOSE () I am now going to read a list of positions that Greg Gianforte could take. For each, please tell me if Greg Gianforte taking that position would make you more or less favorable to him. If [ITEM], would that make you more or less favorable to him? [IF FAV/UNFAV] Is that very [FAV/UNFAV] or just somewhat? MORE FAV LESS FAV Very Some Some Very (DK/Ref.) MORE LESS Greg Gianforte supports laws that help the federal government preserve public lands with national monument protections, like the Upper River Missouri Breaks National Monument in Montana... 26% % 23 Greg Gianforte opposes letting private companies drill, mine and extract other resources on national monuments... 22% % 39 Greg Gianforte opposes laws that allow a President to unilaterally remove protections on public lands and national monument designations without the approval of Congress... 22% % 38 Greg Gianforte opposes the plan to allow uranium mining around the Grand Canyon... 19% % 36 Greg Gianforte opposes rolling back protections on the Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monuments in Utah... 17% % 41

5 Global Strategy Group Jan. Monuments Survey MT-AL Page 5/7 Now I'm going to read you some statements made by some people about why it is important to preserve the national monument status of public lands that currently have this protected status, and then ask your opinion. Here's the first statement... [ITEM]. Do you agree or disagree that this is an important reason to support preserving the national monument status of public lands that currently have this protected status? [IF CHOICE] And is that strongly [AGREE/DISAGREE] or just somewhat? AGREE DISAGREE Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly DK/Ref. AGREE DISAGREE Protected lands and national monuments are crucial for the outdoor economy in Montana, which directly supports over 70,000 jobs and over two billion dollars of wages for Montanans % % 21 The Upper River Missouri Breaks National Monument's designation as a national monument has helped spur tourism and economic activity in Montana. In the 15 years after the area was designated as a national monument in 2001, personal incomes grew by 19% in the surrounding counties and real per capita incomes grew by 23% % % Once again, having heard this new information... Do you support or oppose new laws that would reduce the size of the Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante national monuments in Utah and give presidents the power to lift protections for public lands with the stroke of a pen? [IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE] Is that strongly [SUPPORT/OPPOSE] or just somewhat [SUPPORT/OPPOSE]? Strongly support... 18% Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose VOL: (Don't know/refused)... - SUPPORT ()... 36% OPPOSE () Now I'd like to read you a statement from opponents of Greg Gianforte, and afterward ask your opinion... Greg Gianforte has consistently tried to undermine everyday people's rights to enjoy public lands. Gianforte sued the state of Montana to restrict public fishing access through his property, and supported groups that want to privatize national forests and sell Montana's public lands off to the highest bidder. And Gianforte voted to make it harder for public lands to receive federal protection, and even criticized the decision to give the Upper Missouri River Breaks National Monument in Montana its national monument status. Now Gianforte is considering voting to reduce the size of the Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante national monuments in Utah, which would be the largest rollback of federal land protections in the nation's history and the first step in a plan to roll back national monument protections across the country. Gianforte even refuses to say whether or not he will oppose allowing uranium mining around the Grand Canyon

6 Global Strategy Group Jan. Monuments Survey MT-AL Page 6/7 26. Does this raise doubts for you about Greg Gianforte, or does it not raise doubts? [IF RAISES DOUBTS] And does it raise major doubts or just minor doubts? Raises doubts-major... 50% Raises doubts-minor Does not raise doubts Don't Know/Refused... 6 RAISES DOUBTS ()... 60% 27. Now that you've heard more about Greg Gianforte's record on public lands... Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Greg Gianforte? [IF FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE] And would your opinion be very [FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE] or somewhat [FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE]? Very favorable... 22% Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable VOL: (Still can't rate)... 8 VOL: (Don't know/refused)... 1 FAVORABLE ()... 36% UNFAVORABLE () FAMILIAR () V2. And now that you've heard more about Greg Gianforte's record on public lands... If the November election for U.S. Congress was today, would you vote to re-elect Republican Greg Gianforte or would you vote for a new candidate to replace Gianforte as your Congressperson? [IF CHOICE] Would you definitely or probably vote to [RE-ELECT/REPLACE] Greg Gianforte as your Congressperson? Definitely re-elect... 24% Probably re-elect Probably replace Definitely replace Don't know/refused... 9 RE-ELECT ()... 36% REPLACE () I am now going to read you the same list of descriptions you heard earlier. For each, please tell me how well it describes Greg Gianforte now that you've heard more about Gianforte's record on public lands. Here's the first one. [ITEM]. From your perspective, does that describe Gianforte very well, somewhat well, not too well, or not well at all? NOT [FORM A] Too close to Republicans in Congress... 42% % 22 [FORM A] Too close to special interests... 38% % 31 [FORM B] Just votes the party line... 38% % 27 [FORM B] Hasn't done enough to protect access to public lands... 33% % 34 [FORM B] Too close to President Trump... 36% % 30 [FORM A] Understands the importance of conserving public lands... 17% % 52 Very Some Not very Not at all DK/Ref. NOT

7 Global Strategy Group Jan. Monuments Survey MT-AL Page 7/7 DAGE. In what year were you born? ['REFUSED' ASSIGNED AGE FROM FILE] % VOL: (Refused)... - D102. What is the last grade of school or level of education you completed? Did not complete high school... 3% Graduated high school Attended technical/vocational school... 3 Attended some college but no degree Graduated two-year college with Associate's degree Graduated four-year college with Bachelor's degree Obtained Master's, PhD, or other professional degree (MD, DMD, etc.) VOL: (Don't know/refused)... 1 D105. When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as: Very liberal... 6% Somewhat liberal Moderate Somewhat conservative Very conservative Refused... 5 LIBERAL ()... 26% CONSERVATIVE () DRACE. To ensure we have a representative sample, could you please tell me your race? [IF BLACK/WHITE/OTHER] Do you consider yourself a Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish-speaking American? ['REFUSED' AND OTHER' ASSIGNED RACE FROM FILE] Black/African-American... * White/Caucasian Hispanic/Latino... 2 Asian-American... - Native American... 3 Other... - VOL: (Refused)... - Gender [BY OBSERVATION] Male... 49% Female Region [FROM SAMPLE] Butte... 18% Billings Great Falls Helena... 8 Far East... 4 Missoula-Spokane... 32