Project #11565 Turning Questions Into Answers.

Transcription

1 Project #11565 Key findings from a statewide survey of 500 likely voters with an oversample of 421 likely GOP caucus goers in Iowa conducted November 10, 12 & 13, FREDERICKpolls

2 Public Opinion Strategies and Frederick Polls are pleased to present the key findings of a statewide telephone survey conducted in Iowa. The survey was completed November 10, 12 & 13, 2011 among 500 likely voters with a margin of error of +4.38% and an oversample of 421 likely GOP caucus goers with a margin of error of +4.78%. Glen Bolger and Keith Frederick were the principal researchers on this project. Jim Hobart was the project director, and Claire O Brien provided analytical support.

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4 A strong majority of voters think the country is on the wrong track. GOP caucus goers are almost unanimously pessimistic. National Mood General Electorate GOP Caucus Goers No Opinion 6% Refused 2%* Right Direction 20% No Opinion 3%* Right Direction 3% Wrong Track 72% Wrong Track 94% *Denotes Rounding 4

5 The general electorate is divided on Obama s approval rating. Not surprisingly, GOP caucus goers overwhelmingly disapprove. General Electorate Obama Approval GOP Caucus Goers Total Approve: 48% Total Disapprove: 50%* Strongly Disapprove 34% Don't Know 2% Refused 1% Strongly Approve 20% Don't Know 2%* Total Approve: 7% Total Disapprove: 91% Strongly Approve 1% Somewhat Approve 6% Somewhat Disapprove 15% Somewhat Disapprove 15% *Denotes Rounding Somewhat Approve 28% Strongly Disapprove 76% 5

6 Approval of the president follows party lines. -71% Obama Approval by Party (General Electorate) -8% +66% 85% 81% 44% 52% 14% 15% GOP (32%) Ind/Lean (30%) Dem (34%) Total Approve Total Disapprove 6

7 A strong majority of voters disapprove of Congress. General Electorate Congressional Approval GOP Caucus Goers Total Approve: 15% Total Disapprove: 81%* Total Approve: 11% Total Disapprove: 84% Strongly Disapprove 58% Don't Know 3% Strongly Approve 1% Somewhat Approve 14% Don't Know 4% Refused 1% Strongly Approve 1% Somewhat Approve 10% *Denotes Rounding Somewhat Disapprove 24% Strongly Disapprove 54% Somewhat Disapprove 30% 7

8 Grassley and Harkin have solid approval ratings. Chuck Grassley Approval General Electorate Tom Harkin Approval Total Approve: 59% Total Disapprove: 25%* Total Approve: 51%* Total Disapprove: 33% Don't Know 15% Strongly Disapprove 12% Strongly Approve 25% Don't Know 16% Refused 1% Strongly Approve 16% Somewhat Disapprove 14% *Denotes Rounding Somewhat Approve 34% Strongly Disapprove 17% Somewhat Disapprove 16% Somewhat Approve 34% 8

9 Both have strong approval from Independents. Chuck Grassley Approval By Party (General Electorate) Tom Harkin Approval +66% +29% +7% -20% +20% +51% 77% 68% 56% 53% 51% 11% 27% 46% 39% 33% 31% 17% GOP (32%) Ind/Lean (30%) Dem (34%) GOP (32%) Ind/Lean (30%) Dem (34%) Total Approve Total Disapprove Total Approve Total Disapprove 9

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11 Getting the economy moving again is most important to voters. Issue Importance Ranked by % 10s Mean: Getting the economy moving again. 62% 68% Creating jobs. 51% 61% Making health care more affordable. 27% 47% Having America become more energy independent by producing more of the energy we use here at home. 44% 47% Improving education. 27% 44% General Electorate GOP Caucus Goers 11

12 Voters across party lines consider increased energy independence an important issue. Issue Rating by Party (General Electorate) Having America become more energy independent by producing more of the energy we use here at home. 69% 77% 75% 45% 37% 51% GOP (32%) Ind/Lean (30%) Dem (34%) 12

13 A majority of voters are worried about the affordability of energy. How much do you personally worry about the affordability of energy? General Electorate GOP Caucus Goers Total Great Deal/Fair Amount: 65% Total A Little/Not At All: 35% Total Great Deal/Fair Amount: 64% Total A Little/Not At All: 35% Not at All 8% A Great Deal 22% Not at All 6% Don't Know 1% A Great Deal 20% Only a Little 27% Only a Little 29% A Fair Amount 43% A Fair Amount 44% 13

14 A strong majority of voters believe America will need more oil and natural gas resources in And, thinking ahead to the year 2030, how much oil and natural gas do you think America will need? Do you think America will need more than today or less than today? General Electorate Don't Know 6% GOP Caucus Goers Don't Know 6% Less Than Today 25% Less Than Today 15% *Denotes Rounding More Than Today 69% More Than Today 79% 14

15 Voters across all age groups believe America will need more oil and gas resources in the future. By Age (General Electorate) +48% +37% +41% +50% 71% 60% 68% 71% 23% 33% 27% 21% (39%) (14%) (19%) 65+ (27%) More Than Today Less Than Today 15

16 GOP caucus goers across the ideological spectrum strongly believe that we will need more oil and gas in the future. By Ideology (GOP Caucus Goers) +70% +60% +53% 82% 76% 74% 12% 16% 21% Very Conservative (47%) Somewhat Conservative (30%) Moderate/Liberal (22%) More Than Today Less Than Today 16

17 Intensity of favorability toward increased access to domestic oil and natural gas resources is very high. And, do you favor or oppose increased access to domestic oil and natural gas resources? General Electorate GOP Caucus Goers Total Favor: 79% Total Oppose: 15% Total Favor: 92%* Total Oppose: 6%* Strongly Oppose 6% Somewhat Oppose 9% Don't Know 5% Refused 1% Strongly Favor 45% Somewhat Oppose 4% Somewhat Favor 22% Strongly Oppose 3% Don't Know 2% Somewhat Favor 34% *Denotes Rounding Strongly Favor 69% 17

18 Majorities in all parties support increased access to domestic oil and natural gas resources. By Party (General Electorate) +76% +70% +44% 86% 82% 69% 25% 10% 12% GOP (32%) Ind/Lean (30%) Dem (34%) Total Favor Total Oppose 18

19 Increased access to domestic oil/gas resources is favored throughout the state. Cedar Rapids (29%) General Election Caucus Favor: 75% 89% Oppose: 17% 9% Sioux City (10%) General Caucus Election Favor: 81% 85% Oppose: 14% 8% Davenport (12%) General Caucus Election Favor: 83% 100% Oppose: 12% -- By DMA/Region Des Moines (36%) General Election Caucus Favor: 77% 92% Oppose: 17% 6% Small DMAs (14%) General Election Caucus Favor: 86% 94% Oppose: 12% 6% 19

20 GOP caucus goers are strongly in favor of increased access to domestic oil and gas. By Ideology (GOP Caucus Goers) +91% +79% +83% 95% 88% 90% 4% 9% 7% Very Conservative (47%) Somewhat Conservative (30%) Moderate/Liberal (22%) Total Favor Total Oppose 20

21 Messages about job creation, energy security and reduced energy prices resonate with Iowa voters. Ranked by % Strongly Agree (General Electorate) Increased access to oil and natural gas resources here in North America would lead to more American jobs. 2% 9% 60% 89% Expanding access to domestic oil and natural gas resources will help increase the country s energy security because we will be able to rely on North America s resources. 5% 12%* 52% 85% Expanding access to North America s oil and natural gas resources could reduce the cost to consumers for items such as gasoline, diesel fuel, home heating oil and natural gas. 6% 46% 17% 79% Some in Washington are delaying the development of domestic oil and natural gas reserves every chance they get. These delays may mean an even tighter supply of oil in the future, potentially hurting the economy and leading to higher energy costs for consumers. 8% 43% 23% 72%* When the federal government expands access to domestic sources of oil and natural gas, they increase the amount of revenue the government treasury receives because these additional oil and natural gas supplies generate lease payments, royalty fees and other sources of government revenue. 25% 5% 17% 71% *Denotes Rounding Strongly Agree Total Agree Strongly Disagree Total Disagree 21

22 Voters across party lines strongly agree that increased access to domestic oil and natural gas resources will lead to more American jobs. Increased access to oil and natural gas resources here in North America would lead to more American jobs. By Party (General Electorate) 93% +90% 94% +88% 81% +64% 3% 6% 17% GOP (32%) Ind/Lean (30%) Dem (34%) Total Agree Total Disagree 22

23 GOP caucus goers are enthusiastic about all of these messages. Ranked by % Strongly Agree (GOP Caucus Goers) Increased access to oil and natural gas resources here in North America would lead to more American jobs. 2% 76% 96% Expanding access to domestic oil and natural gas resources will help increase the country s energy security because we will be able to rely on North America s resources. 1% 3% 76% 95% Expanding access to North America s oil and natural gas resources could reduce the cost to consumers for items such as gasoline, diesel fuel, home heating oil and natural gas. Some in Washington are delaying the development of domestic oil and natural gas reserves every chance they get. These delays may mean an even tighter supply of oil in the future, potentially hurting the economy and leading to higher energy costs for consumers. When the federal government expands access to domestic sources of oil and natural gas, they increase the amount of revenue the government treasury receives because these additional oil and natural gas supplies generate lease payments, royalty fees and other sources of government revenue. 62% 3% 8% 62% 5% 11% 40% 2% 9% 90% 85% 81% *Denotes Rounding Strongly Agree Total Agree Strongly Disagree Total Disagree 23

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25 THE BOTTOM LINE Both general election and Republican caucus goers in Iowa are concerned about America becoming more energy independent and also about the affordability of energy. Voters overwhelmingly believe that the country will need more oil and natural gas in the future than it needs today. Both general election voters and caucus goers strongly support increased access to domestic and natural gas resources. Strong majorities of Republicans, Independents, and Democrats all agree. Iowa voters strongly agree that increased access to oil and natural gas resources would lead to more American jobs and would also increase the country s energy security. Iowa voters also believe that some in Washington are delaying development of domestic oil and natural gas, which could lead to higher energy costs. They also believe that expanding domestic access could decrease costs to consumers. 25

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27 GOP caucus goers who are favorable to the Tea Party rate increased American energy independence highly. Issue Rating by Tea Party (GOP Caucus Goers) Having America become more energy independent by producing more of the energy we use here at home. 85% 73% 75% 63% 62% 38% 30% 40% Strongly Favor (34%) Somewhat Favor (25%) Total Unfavorable (9%) DK/No Opinion (31%)

28 Voters of both genders believe America will need more oil and natural gas in the future than it does today. And, thinking ahead to the year 2030, how much oil and natural gas do you think America will need? Do you think America will need more than today or less than today? General Electorate By Gender GOP Caucus Goers +41% +46% +68% +59% 69% 68% 82% 75% 28% 22% 14% 16% Men (48%) Women (52%) Men (50%) Women (50%) More Than Today Less Than Today More Than Today Less Than Today 28

29 Both genders show high favorability toward increased access to domestic oil and natural gas resources. And, do you favor or oppose increased access to domestic oil and natural gas resources? General Electorate By Gender GOP Caucus Goers +64% +62% +85% +86% 91% 92% 79% 78% 15% 16% 6% 6% Men (48%) Women (52%) Men (50%) Women (50%) Total Favor Total Oppose Total Favor Total Oppose 29

30 Favorability toward increased access to domestic oil and natural gas resources is high among voters of all income levels. And, do you favor or oppose increased access to domestic oil and natural gas resources? General Electorate By Income GOP Caucus Goers +56% +50% +55% +78% +82% +84% 88% 91% 92% 80% 77% 77% 13% 16% 20% 7% 7% 5% Under $40K (31%) $40-80K (31%) $80K+ (29%) Under $40K (23%) $40-80K (30%) $80K+ (32%) Total Favor Total Oppose Total Favor Total Oppose 30

31 Regardless of favorability toward the Tea Party, GOP caucus goers are strongly favorable toward using domestic oil and natural gas resources. By Tea Party (GOP Primary Electorate) +96% +82% +70% +81% 98% 89% 85% 89% 2% 7% 15% 8% Strongly Favor (34%) Somewhat Favor (25%) Total Unfavorable (9%) DK/No Opinion (31%) Total Favor Total Oppose 31

32 Blog: pos.org/insights/tqia-blog FREDERICKpolls