Of Centaurs and Doves

Transcription

1 Of Centaurs and Doves Guatemala's Peace Process SUSANNE ^JONAS University of California at Santa Cruz Foreword by Sir Marrack Goulding A Member of the Perseus Books Group UQQo)

2 Contents List of Illustrations Foreword, by Sir Marrack Goulding Acknowledgments xi xiii xvii Prologue 1 The Emotional Roller Coaster, 1 December 1996: Vamonos, Patria, a Caminar, 6 Mid-1999: Guatephrenia, 10 The Project of This Book, 11 Centaurs and Doves, 11 Methodology: Binational and Multiperspective Constructions, 12 Lecturas or Readings of History, 15 Note, 16 1 Background: Guatemala's Thirty-Six-Year Civil War 17 Antecedents: U.S. Intervention and Its Aftermath, 18 Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in the 1970s-1980s, 21 Recomposition of the Counterinsurgency State and Return to Civilian Rule, 25 Social Crisis and Reemergence of Social Movements, 27 Context for Beginning a Peace Process, 30 A Note on Contested Issues Concerning the War, 32 Notes, 35 2 The Mined Road to Peace " : Initial Dialogues, : Bilateral Negotiations, Guatemalan "Conciliator," : Initial UN-Moderated Negotiations, 43 MINUGUAI ( ): The Human Rights Mission, 47 Changed Chemistry in 1996: Arzii and the Endgame Dynamics, 50 vii

3 viii Contents Guatemalan Peace in the International Limelight, 57 Preliminary Lessons and Mines in the Road Ahead, 59 Notes, 61 3 The Terms of Peace 69 Democratization (July 1991), 69 Acuerdo Marco/Framework Accord (January 1994), 70 Comprehensive Accord on Human Rights (March 1994), 71 Resettlement of Population Groups Uprooted by Armed Conflict (June 1994), 73 Historical Clarification Commission (June 1994), 74 Identity and Rights of Indigenous Peoples (March 1995), 75 Social and Economic Aspects and Agrarian Situation (May 1996), 78 Strengthening of Civilian Power and Role of the Armed Forces in a Democratic Society (September 1996), 81 A Missing Accord: Women's Rights, 86 The Operational Accords (December 1996), 87 Definitive Cease-Fire, 88 Constitutional Reforms and the Electoral Regime, 89 Basis for the Legal Integration of the URNG, 89 Timetable for the Peace Accords, 91 A Firm and Lasting Peace, 92 Notes, 92 4 Can Peace Bring Democracy or Social Justice? 93 "De-Centaurization" and Other Gains for Democracy, 94 Democracy Without Adjectives, 99 How Democratic Was Guatemala's "Pacted Transition"? 99 Dimensions of the Democratic Project, 106 The Unresolved Question of Social Justice, 110 Notes, The U.S. Role: The Cold War and Beyond 119 Dangerous Liaisons: U.S. Involvement in Guatemala's War, 119 Mixed Messages from Washington During the Peace Process, 122 "Guategate": The 1995 CIA Scandal, 124 Washington's Agendas in Postwar Guatemala, 126 Truth and Consequences, 128 March 1999: The Clinton Apology, 128 Declassification: The Devil in the Details, 129 Broader Questions About "U.S. Interests," 131 Notes, 133

4 Contents ix 6 Implementation Wars 137 Backdrop: Peace and Its Discontents, 139 "Mincho" and the Balance of Forces in 1997,141 Subtext of the Gerardi Assassination: Return of Political Violence in 1998? 146 Delays, Detours, and Near Derailments in Compliance, 147 "Citizen Security" and the Army's "New Missions," 147 Militarization of the New Civilian National Police, 150 Delays in Reforming the Justice System, 152 Truth Commission: "Memory of Silence," Memory of Genocide, 152 Indigenous Rights and Indigenous Protagonism, 158 \\? Appendix, 161 *" Notes, High Hopes and Stark Realities: Obstacles to Sustainable Development 167 Guatemala's Window of Opportunity, 167 Tax (Non)Reform, 169 Deconstructing the Debacle: Visible and Less Visible Players, 174 International Players and Peace Conditionality, 177 Land, Jobs, and Other Socioeconomic Issues, 180 Prognosis: Dysfunctional Development, 183 Appendix, 185 Notes, The Hijacking of the Constitutional Reforms 189 The First Hijack Attempt, 189 Mitch, "Calamity," and the Appearance of the Dinosaurs, 193 Dinosaurs and Centaurs Block La Avenida de las Reformas, 195 "Balkanization" and Other Myths, 196 Predictions and Results, 198 Post-Consu/ta Postmortems, 200 "No" to What? Major Factors in the Vote, 200 Culture Clash: Contested Interpretations, 210 Notes, 213 Conclusion: "Reinvention" or Lost Opportunity? Global, Comparative, and Imaginary Perspectives 217 Postwar Guatemala Faces Globalization, Neoliberalism, and Transnationalized Actors, 218 Can the Peace Project Survive Neoliberalism? 222

5 x Contents Binational Guatemalan Communities, 224 Guatemala in the World Cycle of Peace Processes, 227 Guatemala, El Salvador, and Beyond, 228 Ripple Effects for Latin America: Against All Odds, 230 The Realm of the Intaginario and the Construction of Citizenship, 232 Really-Existing Postwar Post-Cortswta Guatemala, 236 "De-centaurization" Revisited, 236 Mixed Signals: Uncertainties and Continuities, 238 Michelangelo's "Prisoners," 244 Notes, 245 Epilogue 253 Acronyms 255 References 259 Index 281