Afghanistan and the Uncertain Metrics of Progress Part Six: Showing Victory is Possible

Transcription

1 1800 K Street, NW Suite 400 Washington, DC Phone: Fax: Web: Afghanistan and the Uncertain Metrics of Progress Part Six: Showing Victory is Possible Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy March 7, 2011

2 2 Winning Must Still Address Seven Centers of Gravity Defeating the insurgency not only in tactical terms, but by eliminating its control and influence over the population. Creating an effective and well-resourced NATO/ISAF and US response to defeating the insurgency and securing the population. Building up a much larger and more effective (and enduring base for transition) mix of Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Giving the Afghan government the necessary capacity and legitimacy (and lasting stability)at the national, regional/provincial, district, and local levels. Creating an effective, integrated, and truly operational civil and civilmilitary effort. NATO/ISAF, UN, member country, and NGO and international community efforts. Dealing with Pakistan both in the NWFP and as a potential failed state. Finding stable relations in India, Iran, Stans, Russia, and China Making effective trade-offs with other US domestic and security interests

3 3 Failing to Address Key Issues at a Time of Rising Costs and Critical Pressures on National Budgets The US, allied states, and ISAF should provide an overview of how the strategy of clear, hold, build, and transition is working. In fact, recent unclassified analysis and metrics fails to do so in virtually every important respect. As has been shown in Parts Three, Four, and Five of this analysis, there is far too little transparency and credibility in dealing with major current challenges. The data in describing progress in governance, economics, and building capable Afghan forces far short of what should be available. The limited unclassified data that are available on how the new strategy is working focus almost exclusively on current developments in the fighting, and many of these data have only been reported in very limited and large anecdotal form since mid The official data reported in the press consist largely of factoids more oriented towards spin than substance. The end result is not to control the message, but to fail to provide one. It is hardly surprising that a great deal of media coverage is questioning or negative or that public opinion polls reflect a steady drop in support for the war. This is particularly critical a time that there is a budget crisis in virtually every country in ISAF and the cost of the war is rising so sharply.

4 4 Finding the Right Priorities within Credible Time and Resource Levels ISAF and the US Department of Defense have issued metrics and analyses that describe the key military focus of the campaign, and as is described in Part Two have updated some of the key metrics showing the focus of the campaign. There has been little supporting analysis, however, to tie such metrics and analyze to specific efforts to implement the strategic in the areas shown aside from military progress in Helmand and Kandahar, and that reporting has only had limited updating at the official level since June The data on the fighting also have not been support by meaningful data on related progress in governance, economics, aid, civil-military programs, justice systems, and all of the other critical elements in clear, hold, build, and transition. Moreover, none of these metrics and analysis cover Pakistan in meaningful form, and official reporting has failed to provide meaningful coverage on Afghan and Pakistani perceptions. This is a critical omission given the negative results of independent public opinion polls by NGOs. The failure to address such polling data raises series questions about the credibility and integrity of reporting on a strategy that is claimed to be population centric.

5 5 Centers of Gravity: Fighting in the South There are some useful metrics and analyzes on the fighting in Helmand and progress in pushing the Taliban out of Kandahar. Once gain, however, these data have not been updated in depth since June Moreover, there has been an increasing emphasis on spin, and providing media with background briefings that emphasize tactical success without addressing the ability to provide the lasting security needed for clear and hold; or the governance, justice, and aid programs needed for build and transition. Much of the combat reporting covers small populated or tactical areas without addressing trends by district, province, or the part of the population affected. On the one hand, it tends to cover carefully selected ink spots and on the other, generalize by district or province. It fails to address shifts in Taliban and insurgent presence and sanctuaries, continued presence and use of terrorism and intimidation, and shadow networks. There is no clear examination between the role of the ANSF in such operations and the progress it is making, and media reports and data like the ANA and ANP effectiveness ratings shown in Part Five raise serious questions about how much progress is taking place. More broadly, the concentration of high quality armed forces like those of the US and Britain almost ensures local tactical victories, and some degree of local security and stability, as long as those forces are in place. However, the history of similar tactical victories in Vietnam, Iraq and earlier in Afghanistan have shown that such victories are meaningless without successful hold, build, and transition; and insurgents can reverse them when large US and allied forces leave. Moreover, it is far from clear that ISAF, the US, and its allies pay sufficient attention to the many cases were insurgents appear to be defeated only to adapt and wait out opposing forces exploiting civilian fears and fatigue, weaknesses in governance and the economy, and the limits to outside forces willingness and capability to sustain an unpopular conflict in what ultimately is a war of political attrition.

6 6 It is also far from clear how well the US and its allies can scale up and retain such victories with their current military force strength and the severe limits on civilian and civil-military aid. ISAF and the US have never indicated how they will address these issues, and the issues affecting ANSF development raised in Part Five highlight major challenges in getting the kind of Afghan capability necessary to substitute for ISAF forces, much less replace them. Moreover, major improvements are needed in reporting on what happens once insurgents are driven out. Victory is relative as long as extremists and insurgents can keep up a consistent pattern of low level attacks. The reporting made available to date still focuses on major incidents. A look on media reports of the chronology of violence in these areas shows a clear pattern of attacks on civilians designed to discredit the government, intimidate the people, and provoke local tensions. It is also critical to understand that ISAF and US metrics and analyses not include crime, kidnapping, extortion, perceived bias and failures by the Afghan security services, and perceptions of the overall effectiveness and fairness of the police and courts. These are all critical indicators now that major fighting has halted. They measure the broad level of stability and security in Iraq, and the risk Iraqi and international investors and businesses run in the post-us forces era. Centers of Gravity: Kandahar Kandahar is a work in progress where the ability to carry out an integrated civil-military campaign is critical, as is an early improvement in governance, services, prompt justice, and meeting key popular needs and grievances. There has been little reporting on what any aspect of such progress has been or is expected to be. Centers of Gravity: The East The same is true of fighting in the East.

7 7 Centers of Gravity: Rest of Afghanistan There has been no detailed unclassified reporting on progress in halting and reversing the momentum of the Taliban and other insurgent groups in the full range of key districts and outside them. The Role of Special Forces, Covert Operations, and Strikes by Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles There are numerous press briefings that report major successes by Special Forces, in the use of UCAVs and other systems to attack leaders and networks, and in covert operations involving mixes of US and Afghan forces. NGOs and think tanks have also done useful reporting on some developments. There are almost no official unclassified metrics and analyses, however, beyond summary, favorable statistics. This is disturbing, given the long history of reports of successful attacks on insurgent groups that found new leaders, adapted, and rode out such attacks. Operational security is a critical issue, but the US and MNF-I did find ways to put such efforts in context in reporting on Iraq, and something more than the occasional body count is needed in reporting on how such operations affect the course of the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan: The Key Wild Card To put it bluntly, no official reporting on progress in the war has credibility that does not include developments in Pakistan. Then political decision to omit such reporting in meaningful form particularly given the negatives in public opinion polls on Pakistan and media and outside analytic reports fundamentally undermines the credibility and integrity of current reporting on progress in the war.

8 8 The Need for Credibility, Integrity, and Transparency Virtually every expert on the Afghan War could add new points to this list. It is also obvious from many of these points that the metrics shown in this report can only hint at a few key trends and problems. In far too many cases, there are no metrics and no reliable detailed histories although the kind of metrics and analysis that should have existed is easy to derive from the summary of each problem. At the same time, it is critical to stress that some parts of this series do show that progress is being made in addressing many of the issues involved, and that metrics are only part of that story. For all of the spin and omissions that still surround reporting on the war, progress has occurred over the last two years, and additional major efforts to correct these problems are underway.

9 9 Progress in a Population- Centric War For All of the Challenges, an Outside UNDP Survey of Afghan Perceptions is Positive: 2009 vs. 2010

10 UNDP Survey of Afghan Perceptions in end percent of Afghans report that they are within a half-hour of a road, up from 78 percent last year. Seventy-three percent are within a half hour of a boys school, and 70 percent are within a half hour of a girls school. While access to boys schools is unchanged since last year; access to girls schools has increased 6 points. In comparison, 57 percent are within a half hour of a government health center up 5 points since last year and now only 14 percent have to travel more than an hour to get to a health center, a decrease of 6 points since last year. Slightly more than half say that they are within a half hour of a public phone, again a rise from last year, of 8 points. Access is more restricted to district government offices, courts, and banks: 46 percent, 35 percent, and 31 percent, respectively say that they live within a half hour of each of these. However, in each case this reflects more than a 10- point jump in access since last year s survey. UNDP, Police Perception Survey -2010: The Afghan Perspective, December 2010, pp. 29 Overall, just over half of Afghans (53 percent) say that their country is going in the right direction, about the same number as did last year, while 29 percent think that the country is going in the wrong direction. Optimism is highest in the East and Central Kabul, where roughly 6 in 10 think, the country is headed the right way. Optimism is far lower in the South West and South Central regions, where just 39 percent and 44 percent respectively, think, Afghanistan is headed in the right direction. Afghans who say that the country is moving in the right direction mainly cite reconstruction efforts (36 percent up 15 points since last year) and better security (12 percent down 17 points since last year). Those who say that the country is headed in the wrong direction, cite insecurity (41 percent, up 5 points since last year) and administrative corruption (11 percent, unchanged). More than 8 in 10 Afghans rate their overall living conditions positively and 63 percent say, these have improved in the past year, while only 7 percent say, they have gotten worse. Close to 6 in 10 rate the roads, bridges, and other infrastructure in their area positively, and nearly half say that such infrastructure has improved in the past year, while just 19 percent say that it has gotten worse. Slightly fewer than half of Afghans (47 percent) rate the availability of jobs and economic opportunities in their area as good; nonetheless 38 percent say, these have improved, versus 24 percent who say, they have gotten worse. However, when asked what brings insecurity to their area, 31 percent mention unemployment first an increase of 10 points since last year, and a sign of the interwoven challenges of security, infrastructure, economic development and confidence in government in determining Afghanistan s future.

11 Afghan Ratings of ANA and Government Are Surprisingly High: 2009 vs Afghans rate most national institutions favorably, and some of these ratings have improved since last year. Eighty-three percent report a favorable opinion of the central government, up 9 points. Eight in 10 have a favorable opinion of the ANA and 74 percent report a favorable view of the district government, both basically unchanged. While fewer, 57 percent, have a favorable opinion of the courts in Afghanistan, this is up by 10 points. Overall, 76 percent say, the central government has a strong presence in their area, 73 percent say, the district government has a strong presence, 67 percent say, the ANA has a strong presence, and 54 percent say, the courts have a strong presence in their area. These compare with 80 percent who say, the police have a strong local presence. As noted, presence of the police is one of the two strongest independent factors in viewing the ANP favorable. As with the ANP, favorable ratings of Afghan institutions are lower in the South West than in other regions. Only 71 percent in the South West view the central government positively, and 69 percent rate the ANA positively 12 and 11 points lower than the national averages. In addition, fewer than half rate the district government or the courts positively, down by 18 points and 10 points respectively, from last year. UNDP, Police Perception Survey -2010: The Afghan Perspective, December 2010, p. 28.

12 Afghan Ratings of ISAF and International Organizations Remain Mixed to Low, But Taliban Fares Much Worse Afghans report less favorable views towards international organizations within their country. Overall, 56 percent have a favorable view of international aid organizations and this drops to 42 percent in the South West. Nationally, 41 percent have a favorable opinion of international forces. The presence of these groups also is weaker than the presence of Afghan institutions 42 percent report that international aid organizations have a strong presence in their area and 37 percent say, International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)/ international forces have a strong presence in their area. The Taliban, meanwhile, continues to be highly unpopular in Afghanistan. Only 13 percent of Afghans have a favorable opinion of the movement, essentially the same as last year though this peaks at 40 percent in the South West. Local militias and warlords don t fare much better just 18 percent have a favorable opinion of them overall, though this has risen by 6 points since last year. UNDP, Police Perception Survey -2010: The Afghan Perspective, December 2010, p Fewer than a quarter of Afghans say that the Taliban or local militias/warlords have a strong presence in their area, with a wide range from 43 percent in the South West to 3 percent in Central Kabul.

13 Afghan Views of Improving Security: Despite the challenges in the country, most Afghans rate their personal security positively, and as improving. Eighty-nine percent say, they feel safe when walking alone in their community during the day, and 70 percent feel safe staying alone at home after dark, the latter up six points since last year. More than two-thirds give positive ratings both to the security from crime and violence and freedom of movement. For each of these, moreover, more than half report improvements in the past year. Additionally, 57 percent rate their security from the Taliban specifically as good, and more say, it has gotten better than gotten worse in the past year, by a 20-point margin (45 percent versus 25 percent), a positive sign that security may be expanding in some areas. Only 10 percent of Afghans say, they live in an area of high crime versus 38 percent moderate; the plurality, 49 percent, call theirs a low-crime area. Three times as many say that the amount of crime in their area has decreased over the past year, compared to those who say it has increased (43 percent versus 14 percent, while 29 percent, it has stayed the same). Both crime rates and the public s sense of security independently predict Afghans confidence in the ANP, and their views of the police as effective. UNDP, Police Perception Survey -2010: The Afghan Perspective, December 2010, p. 229.

14 14 But, the Warfighting Challenges Remain High Finding the Right Priorities within Credible Time and Resource Levels

15 Must Show Can Reverse Insurgent Momentum at a Broader Level: Struggle for the Rest of the Population ISAF, May

16 Operation Bakhair Beyond the South: A National Campaign Operation Chashme Naw Operation Cold Fusion III Operation Tajamu Va Tahjum II RC (North) Operation Mountain Cover RC (West) RC (East) RC (South) Operation Mahasera Kohi RC (Southwest) Operation Kalkan RC (Capital) 16 COMISAF Campaign Overview, June 2010

17 SOF Effects: Degrading the Insurgency COMISAF Campaign 17 Overview, June 2010

18 The Rising Cost of US Military Operations and ANSF Development (In Current $US Billions) FY01/02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 ANSF Development Military Operations & DoD activities Source: CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook, Fiscal Years , January 2011, p. 77, and Department of Defense FY2011 and FY2012 defense budget summaries. 3/7/

19 19 Centers of Gravity Fighting in the South

20 Most significant Taliban influence over the population Operational Main Effort: RC-South Protect the population in threatened or key areas Create time and space for governance to improve Create conditions for development, with freedom of movement and security along contiguous economic corridor - Population Array - Focus of Decisive Effects - Population Protection - Economic Corridor Demonstrable, near-term stabilization of the south is critical to success 20 COMISAF Campaign Overview, June 2010

21 Central Helmand Update Central Helmand under insurgent control; Marjeh insurgent-narco hub Restricted freedom of movement; Illegal checkpoints and IEDs Negative perception of GIRoA Initiative shifting to Coalition; presence in every major village Increased freedom of movement; IED threat remains Attitude of population trending positive COMISAF Campaign Overview, June

22 Moshtarak Update (Marjah and Nad Ali) 1 February June 2010 Nad Ali ANSF 2,734 ISAF 2, % Increase ANSF 4,794 ISAF 3,157 Nad Ali Marjah Lashkar Gah Security Forces Marjah Lashkar Gah Limited access by GIRoA officials Activities limited to provincial center Schools: Limited or no attendance; madrasses open Clinics: Limited access; open only in Provincial Center Few bazaars open in Marjah and Nad Ali Limited access to goods Governance Basic Services Commerce District Governors in place Councils functioning; limited by tashkil growth Schools: 81 teachers available; students returning to school Clinics: Many opening; two new clinics under construction Four major bazaars open in Marjah; 100 new shops Expanding availability of goods COMISAF Campaign Overview, June

23 Marjah is a Complex Civil-Military Challenge Where It May Take Months More to Fully Establish Clear, Hold and Build ISAF, April

24 Kandahar in Context ISAF, May

25 June 2009 Kandahar: Plan Overview Rising Tide of Security August 2010 ISAF: 5,100 ANSF: 2,250 Total: 7,350 City Expanded, partnered ANP Gradual increase of GIRoA influence in surrounding districts ISAF: 11,850 ANSF: 8,500 Total: 20,350 Political Reform Manage relationships: Powerbrokers and Political elite Protect, resource and empower District Governors, khans, maliks, mullahs Use the shura to gain trust and confidence of local communities Economic Opportunity Address principal sources of corruption and grievance: contracting, private security companies, land disputes Significantly expand electrical supply to meet rising demand Progress over months; process not an event COMISAF Campaign Overview, June

26 Heart of Pashtun south Kandahar: Complex and Unique Challenge Historic Taliban capitol Hub of trade and commerce routes Weak Government and Strong Powerbrokers Economic Inequity Multiple contested surrounding districts Highly populated (850K) city center Complex Damaged Tribal Structure Resilient and Complex Insurgency Each is difficult; collectively a unique challenge COMISAF Campaign Overview, June

27 Resilient and Complex Insurgency ISAF, May

28 Tribes, Power Brokers, and Fragmentation ISAF, May

29 ANSO Estimate of Trends in Key Battlegrounds The US Strategy Review in December suggested the IEA s momentum had been blunted in some areas and, while not specifically mentioning Kandahar or Helmand, given that those are their focus areas it is reason able to assume that they meant there. Our quarterly attack rate figures for each province (above) do indeed show a substantial reduction of at tacks in both between August and December. Kandahar dropping by 50%, in contrast to the usual 20%, and Helmand dropping by 40% in Q.4, a trend not seen since This demonstrates that the IEA have turned away from the battlefield earlier, and in greater numbers, than before but it does not provide an explana tion as to why. The pressure of US operations could certainly be a factor here, anecdotal reporting suggests many commanders felt the areas to be too hot and sought sanctuary in other provinces or Pakistan, but so too could other more benign factors like the early onset of Ramadan and the normal seasonal downturn. However, regardless of which explanation one prefers when you put the quarterly data in its annual context, which to us is a much more valid analytical period as it captures a full operational cycle rather than just the tactical to & fro, it becomes completely irrelevant. Over the full year the IEA expanded their attacks in both provinces, Helmand by a whopping 124% and Kandahar by a more conservative 20%, suggesting that in the bigger picture their capacity to conduct attacks has improved substantially. In light of this the deep down turn could just as easily be interpreted as an early winter reprieve, after an intense summer fight, and would not represent any longer term degradation of capacity. If the 2011 spring offensives sustain, or build on, the level of violence achieved this year then it will be a sure indicator that the surge operations achieved little. If they do not then the US conclusions, in those provinces at least, will be validated.. Source: Afghanistan National NGO Safety Office (ANSO), ANSO Quarterly Data Report, Q http:// p

30 30 Centers of Gravity Fighting in the East

31 2008: East Afghanistan - The US is No Longer Winning in the East 31

32 Afghan Popular Trust in the Afghan Government in RC East: April 2010 (Green is highest level of trust) Department of Defense, Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan/United States Plan for Sustaining Afghan Security forces, April 2010, defenselink.mil (publications), p

33 33 Pakistan The Key Wild Card

34 The Challenge of Pakistan Pakistan is as or more complex than Afghanistan Tribal and religion overtones, yet strong national identity, multiple ethnicities, most desire some form of democracy, a worsening economy but a nuclear weapons state Foreign intervention resented in most of the country Predominantly an Indian issue, but strong resentment against the US and UK; appears to be growing against Taliban Tribal values and traditional core beliefs still dominate large parts of the country Outsiders trying to impose new ideas and beliefs create tension; nature of tribal traditions can supersede Islam Army is perceived to be more capable (and dependable) than the government Regarded as a positive influence in the FATA and NWFP because they are locally recruited and able to work within local systems Large numbers of internally displaced people from years of fighting, a poor economy and natural disasters Potential breeding ground for the Taliban but offers opportunities for counter-radicalization programs Violations of Pakistan sovereignty may contribute to radicalizing the population and diminishes credibility of the Government of Pakistan Demonstrates an inability of the government; perception they cannot protect their own; exacerbates anti-western sentiment Staying the course in Pakistan as important as staying the course in Afghanistan Source: Adapted from Major General Michael Flynn, State of the Insurgency, Trends, Intentions and Objectives, Director of Intelligence, International Security Assistance Force, Afghanistan, U.S. Forces, Afghanistan, as of 22 DEC,

35 Tribal Connections at Afghanistan/FATA (Pakistan) Border Source: ADDICTION, CRIME AND INSURGENCY The transnational threat of Afghan opium, October 2009,UNODC, Page

36 Tribes and insurgent groups in Pakistan Source: ADDICTION, CRIME AND INSURGENCY The transnational threat of Afghan opium, October 2009,UNODC, Page

37 Official border crossing points between Afghanistan and its neighbors Source: ADDICTION, CRIME AND INSURGENCY The transnational threat of Afghan opium, October 2009,UNODC, Page 62 37

38 Average daily vehicle crossing in FATA Source: ADDICTION, CRIME AND INSURGENCY The transnational threat of Afghan opium, October 2009,UNODC, Page

39 Trafficking routes and unofficial border crossing points in Afghanistan 2008 Source: ADDICTION, CRIME AND INSURGENCY The transnational threat of Afghan opium, October 2009,UNODC, Page 61 39

40 Drug Trafficking routes in Pakistan Source: ADDICTION, CRIME AND INSURGENCY The transnational threat of Afghan opium, October 2009,UNODC, Page 63 40

41 FATA s seven agencies and Baluchistan Source: ADDICTION, CRIME AND INSURGENCY The transnational threat of Afghan opium, October 2009,UNODC, Page

42 Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA) Source: ADDICTION, CRIME AND INSURGENCY The transnational threat of Afghan opium, October 2009,UNODC, Page

43 Afghanistan/Pakistan Border: Baluchistan Province Source: ADDICTION, CRIME AND INSURGENCY The transnational threat of Afghan opium, October 2009,UNODC, Page

44 Refugee camps and heroin seizure locations in Baluchistan, Source: ADDICTION, CRIME AND INSURGENCY The transnational threat of Afghan opium, October 2009,UNODC, Page

45 Poll of Pakistan on Hope for Future Question: As far as you are concerned, do you think that the new year will be better or worse than the last one? Results suggest decreasing hope in Pakistan over the last decade (though things are slightly better than last year's historic lows...) Source: Gilani Poll conducted by Gallup Pakistan

46 Poll of Pakistan on Hope for Future Question: As far as you are concerned, do you think that the new year will be better or worse than the last one? Source: Gilani Poll conducted by Gallup Pakistan

47 Afghan-Pakistan Military Operations: March 2010 Largest deployment of PAKMIL forces on the western border of Pakistan in the nation s history, with over 130,000 PAKMIL deployed to the FATA and Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). More than 100,000 PAKMIL troops were moved from the eastern border with India. Department of Defense, Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan/United States Plan for Sustaining Afghan Security forces, April 2010, defenselink.mil (publications), p