About the International Council on Security and Development (ICOS)

Transcription

1 Operation Moshtarak

2 About the International Council on Security and Development (ICOS) ICOS is an international policy think-tank working to combine grassroots research and policy innovation at the intersections of security, development, counter-narcotics and public health issues. ICOS is a project of the Network of European Foundations Mercator Fund. By developing projects on core global social issues, the objective of the NEF-Mercator Fund is to generate innovative ideas to respond to key global challenges. The Network of European Foundations is a compact and flexible not-for-profit international organisation located in Brussels. Comprising twelve foundations, NEF acts as an operational platform for the development of joint initiatives by foundations and other types of organised philanthropy.

3 NEF-Mercator Fund Project Partners The NEF-Mercator Fund s current project partners include: 121 National Societies of the Red Cross and Red Crescent from Africa, Asia, the Middle East, Europe and the Americas, as part of the Rome Consensus for a Humanitarian Drug Policy The European Commission, which supports the Rome Consensus for a Humanitarian Drug Policy The Emirates Foundation for Philanthropy, on projects related to youth employment and education in the United Arab Emirates The Sir Ratan Tata Trust and CINI in India, examining the intersections between food security, development, and state security in the Global Food Security Initiative The German foundation Gerda Henkel Stiftung on projects assessing youth radicalisation and insecurity around the globe.

4 ICOS Advisory Board The work of ICOS benefits from the support of a network of expert advisors from diverse areas of activity. Advisory Board members include: Mr Raymond Kendall (Chair) Former Secretary General of Interpol Mr Romesh Bhattacharji Former Narcotics Commissioner of India Sir Keith Morris UK Ambassador to Colombia ( ) Dr Massimo Barra Vice-President of the Standing Commission of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Dr Lloyd Axworthy Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Canada Mr Luc Tayart de Borms Managing Director of the King Baudouin Foundation Lord Dennis Stevenson Businessman and Philanthropist

5 ICOS Field Research In March 2010 the International Council on Security and Development (ICOS) conducted field research in the Nad Ali and Lashkar Gah districts of Helmand province, and Kandahar city. A specially-designed survey of nineteen questions was conducted by a team of Afghan researchers, coordinated by international ICOS staff, involving 427 Afghan men (including refugees from Marjah). ThesurveybuildsonpreviousICOSfieldresearchinAfghanistan,aswellasinIraqandSomalia.ICOSresearchhasrevealed that excessive military force, and a lack of attention to developmental and economic instruments, has failed to address the root causes of insurgencies, and has actually contributed to radicalising populations in affected conflict zones.

6 Issues In Development and Aid Capacity Issues in Grassroots Political Dynamics Issues in Taliban Recruitment Responses?

7 48% of Male Population between 15 and 29 High levels of unemployment 90% of jobs can be classified as vulnerable employment which does not provide a secure income

8 More Afghans Joining Taliban Over the last year, do you think more young Afghans have joined the Taliban? Yes % No % No opinion / Don t know 2 0.5% No answer 3 0.7%

9 Financial Gain and Jihad: Key Reasons for Recruitment Why do you think other Afghan men join the Taliban? Job or Money % Jihad % Social status % Coerced into doing so % International Occupation 34 8% Actions of the Afghan government 6 1% Lack of security 5 1% Afghan politics 3 1% Other 3 1% Lack of education 2 0%

10 Financial Incentives Perceived to be Ineffective in Drawing Away Insurgents

11 Employment an Effective Tool in Drawing Away Insurgents

12 New Refugee Flows Created

13 Perception of High Civilian Casualties

14 Moshtarak Bad for the Afghan People

15 Taliban Anticipated to Return

16 Scepticism Over NATO Victory

17 NATO Should Leave

18 Opposition to local NATO presence

19 More Negative Attitude Towards NATO-ISAF

20 Support for Negotiations

21 Support for Operations in Kandahar

22 Agreement on Ends No Agreement on Means

23 Angry Young Men A Ready Source of Taliban Recruits Ideological Leaders Independent Groups Angry Young Men & Ideologically Motivated Foot Soldiers

24 Rising Anger Levels

25 NATO-ISAF: The Cause of Significant Anger Who or what are you angry with? NATO-ISAF: occupation, civilian casualties, night raids % War and lack of security % Taliban: killings, suicide bombers, IEDs 46 9% No nswer 29 6% Personal situation 11 2% Pakistan 11 2% General situation in the country 7 1% Afghan government 6 1% Lashkar Gah-Kandahar Highway 5 1% Poppy field eradication 5 1% Unemployment / Poverty 3 1% Corruption 2 0.4%

26 Insurgency Timeline

27 Non-Violent Security Instruments

28 Non-Violent Security Instruments

29 Marriage Allowances and Jobs: Key Tools to Inoculate Against Insurgent Recruitment What can we do to avoid young people from joining the Taliban? Money to allow them to get married and start a family % Jobs % Withdrawal of NATO-ISAF forces % Better security % Education % Change the conduct of NATO-ISAF forces 12 3% Other 5 1% Reconstruction of the country 3 1% No answer 6 1%

30 Easier to Recruit Unmarried Men

31 Security Eco-System Approach

32 COIN Impact Equation Meet Negative Impact with a Positive Impact Positive Impact must be greater than Negative Impact

33 Dramatic Positive Local-Level Statement

34 Opposition to Poppy Eradication

35 Alternative Crops Unviable?

36 Poppy for Medicine (P4M) Allows Afghan Farmers To Grow Poppy for Medicinal Morphine

37 What does P4M do? Counter-Insurgency Breaking the link between farming communities and insurgency Linking local communities with the central government Giving Afghan farmers a vested interest in stable and legitimate state institutions

38 What does P4M do? Counter-Narcotics Producing an Afghan brand of morphine instead of illegal heroin Integrating poppy farming communities into the legal economy

39 How can P4M be controlled? One village one license : Local Afghan ownership and commitment Central role for the local shura Export of medicines, not raw opium

40 A two-tier market Regular market: UN-administered system balancing official demand and supply Beneficiaries: US, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia and New Zealand consume 95% of available morphine P4M Parallel market: Addresses unmet needs of opioid analgesics Beneficiaries: 80% of the world s population with little to no access to opioid analgesics.

41 Dramatic Positive Local-Level Statement

42 Examples: Camps In A Box Marriage Allowances / Land Allowances Mosque / Shrine Renovations, Koran Distribution Food Aid Surge Poppy for Medicine pilot projects

43 I Contact: Ms Norine MacDonald QC, President of ICOS