California Latino Voters

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Adam O’Brien’
5 years ago
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1 California Latino Voters March

2 Methodology Sample 400 interviews among a representative sample of Latino voters statewide in California who are likely to vote in the 2012 General Election. Voters in cell phone-only households and Spanish-speaking households are included. Method Telephone interviews conducted March 12-14, 2011 Sampling Error Plus or minus 5% at the 95% confidence level 2

3 Challenges for the GOP Latino voters are widely negative about the Republican Party (26% favorable/47% unfavorable/ 27% no opinion) but widely positive about the Democratic Party (62%/22%/17%). The GOP candidate is not going to win many Latino voters by emphasizing Conservatism. Only 22% of Latino voters suggest that Republicans should, stick to core values and nominate true Conservatives. Approximately one-third of Latino voters say they will never vote for a Republican, but a third also suggest they would consider GOP candidates if, Republicans move toward the center and nominate candidates who are less Conservative. On issues, immigration is the elephant in the GOP living room. The Arizona immigration law is widely unpopular among Latino voters; only 25% approve it, while 71% disapprove of the law. A pathway to citizenship for those who have entered the country illegally is the most important element of immigration reform for Latino voters. A pathway is favored by 67% overall, and among 51% of Latino Republicans. However, securing the border and stopping illegal immigration are higher priorities than a pathway. Immigration reform is widely popular; 66% of Latino voters overall and 63% of GOP Latinos favor reform. Reform is more popular than stronger enforcement of current immigration laws. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to be trusted when it comes to reforming immigration laws (57-21%). 3

4 Good News for the GOP: We Can Disagree on Immigration but Still Appeal to Latinos on Education, Economy and National Defense More than six-in-ten California Latino voters will consider voting for a GOP candidate with whom they disagreed on immigration policy but... Agreed with the candidate on ensuring all children had a chance at a first rate education (69%), Agreed with the candidate on improving the economy and creating jobs (65%), and Agreed with the candidate on protecting America from terrorists (63%). There is a way for GOP candidates to talk about the immigration issue. More than seven-in-ten Latino voters had a favorable reaction to a candidate who says, secure the border first, stop illegal immigration, then find a way to address the status of people already here illegally. Latino voters are more Conservative than Democrats or DTS voters. Fully a third of all California Latino voters are Conservative, while only one-in-seven Democrats and just one-in-four DTS voters are Conservative. Latino voters are more pro-life on abortion (45% say they are pro-life, 45% prochoice) than voters are statewide (36% pro-life, 56% pro-choice). Latino voters are more likely to be regular church attendees than the statewide voting population 43% of Latinos attend church once a week or more often, compared to 32% among the electorate as a whole. 4

5 Political Climate 5

6 Most Important Issue for Latino Voters: Jobs/Economy Which one of the following is the most important issue facing you and your family today? (Q1) Jobs and the economy 40% Education Health care Taxes and government spending 16% 16% 14% Illegal immigrants Air and water pollution Terrorism and national defense Other Don t know 4% 3% 2% 2% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 6

Latino Voters are Positive About the Democrat Party; Negative About Republicans and Tea Party Here are the names of some organizations in the news.

7 Latino Voters are Positive About the Democrat Party; Negative About Republicans and Tea Party Here are the names of some organizations in the news. Please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable impression of each. If you have no opinion or have never heard of the organization, just say so. 62% Democrat Party (Q3) Republican Party (Q2) 22% 17% 26% 27% Favorable Unfavorable No opinion/never heard of 47% Tea Party (Q1) 20% 31% 49% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 7

8 DTS Latino Voters are Positive About Democrats; Negative About Republicans & Tea Party Favorable Unfavorable Net favorable No opinion Never heard of Democrat Party 55% 19% +36% 25% 1% Republican Party 28% 42% -14% 28% 1% Tea Party 22% 28% -6% 36% 13% 8

9 Major Concerns/Complaints About the Republican Party What are your major concerns/complaints about the Republican Party? (Q5) Favor only the rich/wealthy Selfish/out for themselves Immigration laws Don't represent the average person Disagree with their policies/party (general) Spending issues Tax policies/stance on taxation Fighting with Democrats Don't follow through on promises Stance on the economy/job creation Cutting services Stance on health care reform Stubborn/won't negotiate Incompetent/aren't doing their job None/nothing Don't know 7% 7% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 10% 12% 11% 27% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 9

10 Major Concerns/Complaints About the Democrat Party What are your major concerns/complaints about the Democrat Party? (Q6) Wasteful spending No leadership qualities Not following through with promises Incompetent/aren't doing their job Stance on economy/job creation Unwilling to negotiate/partisan politics Too Liberal Don't represent the average person Party needs to be more united 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% None/nothing 15% Don't know 30% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 10

11 Are California Republicans the Same or Different? In your opinion, are Republicans in California pretty much like Republicans in the rest of the country or are California Republicans different than Republicans elsewhere in the country? (Q7) 60% 50% 40% 20% 27% 23% 0% Same Don't know Different 11

12 How are California Republicans Different? IF Q7=RESPONSE 3 (DIFFERENT): How are California Republicans different than Republicans elsewhere in the country? (Q8, N=93) California Republicans are less Conservative, more Liberal 25% Willing to negotiate 9% Moderate Republicans Every state has their own way of doing things Depends on the politician (general) More Conservative Don't work together Incompetent/aren't doing their jobs Influenced by Democrats None/nothing 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 6% Don't know 18% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 12

13 Advice for Republicans from Latino Voters In order for Republican candidates to win your vote in the future, should they move to the center and nominate candidates who are less Conservative, should they stick to core Republican principles and nominate candidates who are true Conservatives, or would you never consider voting for a Republican? (Q9) Move to the center/nominate less Conservative candidates 30% Stick to core Republican principles/nominate true Conservative candidates 22% Never vote for a Republican 32% Don t know 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 13

14 Advice for Republicans from Latino Voters: By Party All Republicans Democrats DTS/ others Move to the center/nominate less Conservative candidates Stick to core Republican principles/ nominate true Conservative candidates 30% 25% 32% 26% 22% 50% 14% 24% Never vote for a Republican 32% 11% 39% 31% Don t know 16% 14% 15% 20% 14

15 Immigration 15

16 Wide Support for Immigration Reform Do you favor or oppose reforming immigration laws? (Q10) 70% 66% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 12% 22% 0% Favor Don't know Oppose 16

17 Immigration Reform: Widely Supported by Latino Republicans, Democrats and DTS Voters Favor Don t know Oppose Net favor All Latino voters 66% 12% 22% +44% Party Republicans 63% 17% 21% +42% Democrats 66% 12% 22% +44% DTS/others 67% 11% 22% +45% 17

18 Latinos are More Likely to Trust Democrats on Immigration Reform When it comes to reforming immigration laws, which party are you more likely to trust? (Q11) Neither/don't know 23% Republicans 21% Democrats 57% 18

19 Why Trust Republicans on Immigration Reform? IF Q11=RESPONSE 1 (REPUBLICANS): Why do you say that? (Q12A, N=82) I am a Republican Support immigrant rights/pro-immigration Relate more to their beliefs/views/opinions They want to keep people out of the country/antiimmigration Fair and balanced views Strong/empowered image Progressive/Liberal views Dishonest/deceitful characteristics Particular stance on the current laws Help average people 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 11% 12% 13% Conservative views None/nothing 2% 2% Don't know 12% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 19

20 Why Trust Democrats on Immigration Reform? IF Q11=RESPONSE 2 (DEMOCRATS): Why do you say that? (Q12B, N=227) I am a Democrat 16% Support immigrant rights/pro-immigration 14% Progressive/Liberal views 12% Fair and balanced views Relate more to their beliefs/views/opinions They want to keep people out of the country/antiimmigration Particular stance on the current laws Help average people Discriminatory/racist outlook Dishonest/deceitful characteristics Support poor/underprivileged people Willing to negotiate Don't know 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 9% 8% 7% 10% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 20

21 Wide Support for a Pathway to Citizenship for Illegal Immigrants Do you believe people who have entered the country illegally should be given a pathway to become citizens or not? (Q13) 80% 67% 60% 40% 20% 10% 23% 0% Should be given pathway Don't know Should not be given pathway 21

22 A Majority of GOP Latinos Support a Pathway Should be given pathway Don t know Should not be given pathway Net give All Latino voters 67% 10% 23% +44% Party Republicans 51% 7% 42% +9% Democrats 72% 10% 17% +55% DTS/others 65% 12% 24% +41% 22

23 Addressing Illegal Immigration: A Pathway In your opinion, what should be the priority for dealing with illegal immigration in the U.S.? (Q14) Better border security and stronger enforcement of our immigration laws 15% Creating a way for illegal immigrants already here to become citizens if they meet certain requirements 46% Both should be given equal priority 34% Don t know 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 23

24 Wide Opposition to the Arizona Immigration Law As you may know, last year the State of Arizona passed a law that requires police to verify the legal status of someone they have already stopped or arrested if they suspect that person is in the country illegally. Do you approve or disapprove of Arizona s immigration law? (Q15) 80% 71% 60% 40% 20% 25% 0% 4% Approve Don't know Disapprove 24

25 Dealing with Illegal Immigration: Prefer Securing Border to Sending Home Some people say there are 10 million illegal immigrants already in this country and what we need to do is to make our borders more secure and give those already here a path to citizenship. Other people say illegal immigrants have broken our laws and should be sent back to their homeland and then apply to immigrate to this country legally. With whom do you agree? (Q16) 80% 60% 63% 40% 24% 20% 14% 0% Secure border Don't know Send back/apply legally 25

26 Secure the Border First! If you heard a candidate say the following statement, would your reaction be very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable? Secure the border first, stop illegal immigration, then find a way to address the status of people already here illegally. (Q17) 80% 73% 60% 40% 20% 7% 20% 0% Favorable Don't know Unfavorable 26

27 Secure the Border First: By Party Favorable Don t know Unfavorable Net favorable All Latino voters 73% 7% 20% +53% Party Republicans 79% 8% 13% +66% Democrats 71% 7% 22% +49% DTS/others 73% 5% 22% +51% 27

28 Biggest Immigration Concern Among Latino Voters What, if anything is your biggest concern about illegal immigration? (Q18) It s a burden on government services It leads people to believe most Latinos are here illegally 21% 20% It hurts American jobs and workers 13% It shouldn t be illegal 10% It contributes to crime 8% Other 8% No concerns 10% Don t know 10% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 28

29 GOP Candidate Views on Issues 29

30 Latino Voters are Willing to Consider GOP Candidates Views on a Number of Issues If you disagreed with a Republican candidate on immigration policy would you consider voting for that Republican candidate or not? Consider Not consider...but agreed with the candidate on ensuring all children had a chance at a first rate education (Q23)...but agreed with the candidate on improving the economy and creating jobs (Q20)...but agreed with the candidate on protecting America from terrorists (Q21) 23% 27% 30% 69% 65% 63%...but agreed with the candidate on taxes and government spending (Q19)...but agreed with the candidate on fighting air pollution and water pollution (Q22) 36% 39% 53% 51% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 30

31 Considering GOP Candidates Views on Issues: By Party (% Willing to Consider a GOP Candidate) All Republicans Democrats DTS/ others...but agreed with the candidate on ensuring all children had a chance at a first rate education (Q23) 69% 68% 71% 65%...but agreed with the candidate on improving 65% 72% 63% 61% the economy and creating jobs (Q20)...but agreed with the candidate on protecting America from terrorists (Q21)...but agreed with the candidate on taxes and government spending (Q19)...but agreed with the candidate on fighting air pollution and water pollution (Q22) 63% 79% 60% 58% 53% 64% 51% 49% 51% 44% 54% 46% 31

32 Gun Control and Abortion 32

33 Latino Voters and Gun Control Please tell me which of the following statements best describes your view on gun control? (Q24) I oppose gun control and the issue greatly affects how I vote I oppose gun control, but the issue doesn t usually affect how I vote 13% 13% Total oppose gun control 26% I have no strong opinion on the matter 25% Total support gun control 45% I support gun control, but the issue doesn t usually affect how I vote 26% I support gun control and the issue greatly affects how I vote 19% Don t know 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 33

34 GOP Latinos Support Gun Control All Republicans Democrats DTS/ others Total oppose gun control 26% 28% 27% 20% Have no strong opinion 25% 26% 22% 29% Total support gun control 45% 42% 45% 46% Don t know 5% 4% 5% 5% Net support +19% +14% +18% +26% 34

35 Latino Voters and Abortion On the issue of abortion, are you pro-life or pro-choice? (Q25) 80% 60% MI Latino voter poll (March 2011) MI statewide voter poll (June 2009) 56% 45% 45% 40% 36% 20% 10% 8% 0% Pro-life Don't know Pro-choice 35

36 Latino Philosophy and Party 36

37 Voter Philosophy: Latinos vs. The Electorate Thinking in political terms, would you say you are (Q28) 60% MI Latino voter poll (March 2011) MI statewide voter poll (June 2009) 40% 32% 41% 34% 26% 25% 28% 20% 9% 5% 0% Conservative Moderate Liberal Don't know/na 37

38 Statewide Party Registration: Latinos vs. The Electorate Party Registration (Q36) 80% Latinos (2012 likely general election voters) 60% Statewide voters (Secretary of State) 61% 44% 40% 20% 18% 31% 21% 25% 0% Republican Democrat DTS/other 38

Latino Voters in Competitive California Congressional Districts

Latino Voters in Competitive California Congressional Districts April 2013 1 Methodology Sample 400 interviews among Latino voters in 10 California Congressional Districts likely to be competitive in 2014