Assessing e-readiness: A review of the Mosaic methodology

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Lindsay Holt
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1 Metrics session Thursday, June 2, 11:-12:3 Assessing e-readiness: A review of the Mosaic methodology Michael.Minges@itu.int

developing nations Seek reasons which retard or accelerate

2 ITU Internet Case Studies 2 ½ years (since January 2) 15 nations studied Purpose: Try to overcome lack of reliable ICT data in developing nations Seek reasons which retard or accelerate Internet development Using Mosaic methodology <mosaic.unomaha.edu/gdi.html>

3 Mosaic framework Category Pervasiveness Dispersion Sectoral absorption Connectivity infrastructure Organizational infrastructure Sophistication of use Definition Proportion of Internet users Concentration of the Internet within a nation, from none or a single city to nationwide availability with points-ofpresence or toll free access in all first-tier political subdivisions and common rural access Degree of Internet utilization in the education, commercial, health care, and public sectors Based on international and national backbone bandwidth, exchange points, and last-mile access methods State of the ISP industry and market conditions Measure characterizing usage from conventional to highly sophisticated and driving innovation Five values ( to 4) for each category with 4 being best. Maximum total score of 24.

4 The scorecard Average Jan- 8. Nepal 14 Feb- 8.5 Uganda 13 Nov-1 9. Laos 12 May Vietnam 11 May- 1 Bolivia 1 May- 1 Egypt 9 Apr-2 1 Cape Verde 8 Date Total Sophis ticatio n Organ izatio nal Conne ctivity Absorp tion Dispe rsion Perv asive ness Oct- 1 Hungary 7 Sep Philippines 6 Aug Thailand 5 May Indonesia 4 Apr Malaysia 3 May Korea 2 Jul Singapore 1 Jul Cambodia 15

5 Mosaic attractions & drawbacks Attractions Highlights where a country s relative strengths and weaknesses are Can be a sanity check for unreliable Internet user data Is a better overall measure of ICT potential than just Internet user penetration by including sector absorption Drawbacks Base data not always available or unreliable Some items require subjective assessment Often maps back to Internet user or income Does not factor in universal access issues such as affordability or presence of Internet cafes Does not factor in soft factors such as education or literacy

6 Quickly see relative strength and weakness Pervasiveness 4 Sophistication Dispersion Organizational Absorption Connectivity

7 Pervasiveness & dispersion Reliable Internet user surveys lacking for many developing nations (and inconsistent ones for developed!!!) Not very granular Geographic dispersion hard to judge or not so relevant (e.g., 1 st Tier political sub-divisions, nationwide Internet dial-up numbers versus POPs) How many Internet users does Singapore have? 2% 8 4 Nielsen* (4/2) Users (s) Penetration 22% 9 2 NetValue (11/1) 33% 1 ' 3 IDA (mid ) * Used in last month ** Universe 51% 2 ' % 2 ' IDA Nielsen** (end 1) (4/2)

8 Absorption & connectivity Absorption: What level of government or education should be considered? Should it be central/local government, primary/secondary/tertiary education? Connectivity: Mixed values. Rep. Korea has world s highest broadband penetration yet its domestic & international connectivity would have low values according Mosaic Related to size of nation: Absolute values not as important as relative ones 2'249 It s all relative International bandwidth (Mbps) 1'46 1' Per subscriber (bps) S'pore Indonesia Thailand Egypt Cambodia 4

9 Organizational & sophistication Hard to measure: What is sophistication? Mixed values: Many ISPs but only one with international gateway Actual versus theoretical: Country may have open market on paper but only one ISP in operation

10 Mosaic compared to income Doing better than expected? Or Mosaic values too high? 24 2 Korea (Rep.) Doing worse than expected? Or Mosaic values too low? Hungary R 2 =.8117 $1 $1' $1' $1' GDP per capita

11 Mosaic & Internet penetration Mosaic values too high? Or Internet users under estimated? R 2 =.8574 Indonesia Mosaic values too low? Or Internet users over estimated? Hungary Internet users per 1 people, 2

12 An Internet Development Index Concept Human Affordability Infrastructure Connectivity Indicator Literacy, Newspaper circulation Secondary+ education, tertiary enrolment Language Price of Internet access Fixed telephone lines per capita PCs per capita Internet subscribers per capita International bandwidth (per subscriber, BMI) Schools, business, households

ASEAN Internet: ITU Case Studies

e-asean Task Force Meeting Siem Reap, Cambodia 6 July 2001 ASEAN Internet: ITU Case Studies Michael.Minges@itu.int International Telecommunication Union UN agency for telecommunications 189 member states;