Population Mobility and Gridded Population Distribution Databases

Transcription

1 Population Mobility and Gridded Population Distribution Databases Eddie Bright October 5, 2010 Oak Ridge National Laboratory Geographic Information Science & Technology Acknowledgment This presentation was prepared by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, P.O. Box 2008, Oak Ridge, Tennessee , managed by UT-Battelle, LLC for the U. S. Department of Energy under contract no. DEAC05-00OR22725 Copyright This manuscript has been authored by employees of UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract DE- AC05-00OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy. Accordingly, the United States Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes.

2 Today, ORNL is DOE s largest science and energy laboratory $1.6B budget 4,900 employees 3,900 research guests annually $350 million invested in modernization World s most powerful open scientific computing facility Nation s largest concentration of open source materials research Nation s most diverse energy portfolio Operating the world s most intense pulsed neutron source Managing the billiondollar U.S. ITER project

3 Geographic Information Science & Technology Over 40 years of gridded population database creation and analysis

4

5 Emergency Preparedness and Response Total population Significant damage (< 5 ft surge) 1,007,676 Catastrophic damage (5 20 ft surge) 1,513,871 DAMAGE TOTAL POPULATION SENIOR 100% 791,361 90,773 75% 1,594, ,677 50% 1,505, ,372 25% 1,701, ,279 Total 5,592, ,101 Individual & Public Assistance Public Assistance Alabama 575,133 56,801 Mississippi 707,506 1,391,233 Louisiana 3,153,293 1,362,477 FEMA Impacted Areas Source: FEMA Impacted Areas, August 31, 2005

6 Consequence Assessment Static versus Dynamic Population Current Seasonal Relocations

7 Inter-censal Growth & Migration U.S. Population Growth ~ 2,500,000/year Global Population Growth ~ 80,000,000/year

8 Migrant Worker Estimates Average number of Migrant Workers, 2008 Fresno County Monterey County

9 Unpredictable Mass Movements Refugee Origins IDP Origin Destination Compiled to the province level for the period May 2007 leaving to Anbar Al Basrah Al Qadisiyah At Tamin Babil Baghdad Dahuk Dhi Qar Diyala Karbala Ninawa Salh ad Din Wasit Anbar Al Basrah Al Muthana Al Qadisiyah An Najaf Arbil As Sulaymaniyah At Tamin Babil Baghdad Dahuk Dhi Qar Diyala Karbala Maysan Ninawa Salh ad Din Wasit Sources: Iraq IOM provincial reports Congressional Research Service Report RL33936 UNHCR Estimates

10 Sources United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) International Organization for Migration (IOM) U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) Bureau for Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance (DCHA) U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) U.N. Operations (UNOPS) World Food Program (WFP) United Nations Children s Fund (UNICEF) U.N. Habitat World Health Organization (WHO). Norwegian Refugee Council Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (idmc) British Refugee Council U.S. Committee for Refugees International Rescue Committee Refugees International Lutheran Immigration and Refugee Service American Refugee Committee Refugee Council of Australia Austcare Jesuit Refugee Service Shelter Now International Student Action For Refugees (STAR) USA for UNHCR Ockenden International Vive La Casa Canadian Council for Refugees European Council on Refugees and Exiles (ECRE) Women s Commission for Refugee Women and Children

11

12 Post 2003 Refugee Movements ~40,000 ~ 1,000,000 ~54,000 ~800,000

13 IDP Movements Movements to ethnically similar areas Kurd-Sunni Movements Shia-Sunni Movements

14 Net Population change as a result of Refugee and IDP movements

15 Predictable Mass Movements Diurnal Movements Business & Leisure Travelers Seasonal Episodic Events Special Events

16 High Resolution Social Dynamics Homes Departure time pdf Mode, route, and speed Night School Bus Routes (?) School Taxi Routes (?) Vehicles, Bikes, and Pedestrians TeleAtlas (GDT) NAVTEQ Public Bus Routes Hazards Schools Problem Statement: The US EPA is analyzing the exposure of K-12 students to common pollutants to assess environmental equity in Philadelphia, PA Technical Approach: Using a variety of data sources, apply discrete event simulation techniques to spatially express the movement of K-12 students from home to school. Apply appropriate coefficients including method of transport (school bus, public bus, bike, and walking) to determine environmental exposure of the student population Benefit: Environmental exposure and environmental assessment may be better understood to ensure a safer, cleaner environment for K-12 student travel to and from school. Similar approach is being applied to other demographic groups such as workers.

17 School Modeling: Individual Movements

18 School Modeling: Collective Movements

19 Millions Orange, FL Los Angeles, CA Clark, NV New York, NY San Diego, CA Orange, CA Cook, IL Fulton, GA Maricopa, AZ Atlantic, NJ San Francisco, CA Harris, TX Dallas, TX Bexar, TX Franklin, OH Sevier, TN St. Louis City, MO Riverside, CA Philadelphia, PA Hillsborough, FL Suffolk, MA Sacramento, CA King, WA Marion, IN Allegheny, PA Seasonal Business & Leisure Travelers

20 Transient Populations Nighttime Entertainment Event Population Distribution Nighttime Entertainment Event Population: South Las Vegas Blvd. Tropicana: 4,767

21 Dynamic Population Events Special Events Demographics Geographic Scale Frequency Characteristics Duration Age Gender Race/Ethnicity Income International Political Under 5 Male National Religious 5-17 Female Regional Business 18 and over Local Government Entertainment Sporting Events Cultural Tourism

22 Special Event Population

23 Special Event Population

24 Special Event Population

25 Updating a Population Grid Adjust the population of this area for the Inauguration Identify and/or digitize the cells to be changed LS2009 Value 42 New Value 120,000 Sum of Edits +1,250,000

26 Special Event Populations: Stadium Model Data currently maintained Season Ticket Holder Dataset Captures seating assignments and ZIP codes without compromising individual privacy Stadium Seat Directory Use Datasets in models for impact assessment Survey for Validation Total Hours Arrive Before Kickoff by Ticket Holder Type Using Season Ticket Holder data allows for a connection between a specific seat and the ticket holder s origin ZIP code LandScan USA shows total affected population Number of Home Games Planning to Attend by Ticket Holder Type blank blank Non Season Student Season 0 blank 76% of respondents plan to attend 4 of 6 home games 95% of Season Ticket Holders plan to attend 4 of 6 home games Hours Before Kickoff blank Non Season Student Season Survey allows for a better understanding of population around the stadium leading up to the game

27

28 Near-Real Time Population Model Combining Image processing GIS modeling High-performance computing

29

30 Automated Crowd Scene Analysis Problem Statement: Dense crowd situations pose many challenges to automated tracking systems: Learning background models in crowded situations and ad-hoc camera views is hard. Inter- and intra object occlusions are highly common. Objects usually occupy only a few pixels. Fitting shape and appearance models may be difficult. Technical Approach: To identify dominant crowd motions in video where individual tracking is highly challenging. Our approach is based on clustering low-level feature tracks, which may be fragmented or noisy. The similarity between two point tracks is measured using a Longest Common Subsequence based algorithm. The matching cost is computed using dynamic programming. Benefit: A computer vision system(s) that can autonomously interpret crowded environments in a wide range of operating conditions for public safety systems and other persistence surveillance systems.

31

32

33 Population Based Routing Analysis Problem Statement: To assess the optimal (cost, time, and risk based) path through the national transportation networks (road, rail, and waterway) for shipments of radioactive or hazardous materials and other commodities. Technical Approach: The Transportation Routing Analysis Geographic Information System (TRAGIS) model utilizes best available transportation data, hazard regulations, and commodity flow optimization to calculate compliant routes. Benefit: TRAGIS generates a route between an origin and destination, providing a comprehensive description of route and population at risk. Allows multi-modal and inter-modal assessment and contingency analysis during disruptions in transportation network.

34 Summary Residential grids may be inadequate for certain analyses Population mobility (predictable & unpredictable) is apparent at different spatial and temporal resolutions. Transients may constitute a significant percentage of a local area population possible service disruptions/security concerns Risk assessments for areas with dynamic population fluctuations pose numerous complications for regional analysis. Identifying and understanding population distribution and dynamics requires information extraction and the development of spatial and temporal cross-validation models using multiple sources of geographic, physiographic, and socio-economic data in conjunction with imagery analysis

35 Contact Information Eddie Bright