Migration cycles and transitions in South-East Europe: from emigration to immigration?

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1 Migration cycles and transitions in South-East Europe: from emigration to immigration? Heinz FASSMANN*, Elisabeth MUSIL*, Kathrin GRUBER*, Ramon BAUER*, Attila MELEGH x * University of Vienna, Department of Geography and Regional Research x Hungarian Central Statistical Office Jointly for our common future The information published here reflects the author s views and the Managing Authority is not liable for any use that may be made of the information concerned.

2 Background South-Eastern Europe faces a complex, nationally and regionally diverse set of demographic, migratory and labour market challenges e.g. countries show a stagnating and ageing population and an emigration trend following the idea of cumulative negative causation (Myrdal 1957), this could negatively affect territorial cohesion and hinder economic growth in the region important to improve the understanding of on-going processes and challenges How have international migration dynamics developed in the longer-term in the SEEMIG countries and how can these developments be explained? SEEMIG Work Package 3: Dynamic Historical Analysis of Longer Term Migratory, Labour Market and Human Capital Processes in the SEEMIG Region SEEMIG (Managing Migration and its Effects in SEE: Transnational Actions Towards Evidence Based Strategies) funded by the European Union s South-East Europe Programme Duration: 1 June November 2014 Lead Partner: Hungarian Central Statistical Office 18 research institutes, universities, NSOs, local municipalities in 8 SEE countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia)

3 Long-term analysis of international migration in SEEMIG Region, Data & methods: Macro-level analysis of longer-term migration data series (8 country reports) national level for long-term perspective ( ) regional level (NUTS2, NUTS3) for the current period ( ) Data: national statistics the project partners (SEEMIG transnational database) international databases of Eurostat, United Nations, World Bank and Maddison project Theoretical approach: Demographic Transition (Thompson 1929, Landry 1934, Notestein 1945) Long durée (Braudel 1969) Migration System Theory (Zlotnik 1992) Historical-structural approach (Böröcz and Portes 1989) Model of the Migration Cycle (Fassmann and Reeger 2012) o national migration regimes change as a reaction to demographic dynamics and labour market structures o main drivers: demographic development, economic development, paradigms of migration and control policies o transition characterized by discrete, significant phases The concept of the migration cycle Source: Fassmann 2009, modified.

4 Empirical analysis Historical Turning Points and Demographic Periods a Literature Review 1. Installation of state socialism and the closing of the Iron Curtain in the late 1940s new political, social and economic order (e.g. centralised coordination of economy, relatively closed borders vis-à-vis migration) different forms of socialism and therefore diverse impacts 2. Breakdown of socialism and the fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989/1990 change in the political regime from socialism to democracy in BG, HU, RO, CZ shaping of market-like economies and dramatic changes in the labour market strongly influenced the overall socio-demographic development (e.g. increasing unemployment, possibilities for free movement of the population) change of number and direction of migration flows (e.g. new independent countries and change of international borders (SI, RS, SK)) 3. Step by step accession to the European Union ( EU Enlargement ) change of regimes in the countries, e.g. modernisation of economies, implementation of imposed stability measures, abandonment of independent national monetary policies free movement of persons within the area of the Union, step-by-step inclusion into the free movement area of Schengen harmonisation in various policy areas, including migration and asylum

5 Empirical analysis Demographic & Socio-Economic Developments in Retrospect: Convergence or Divergence Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. Illustration: Bauer. Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. Illustration: Bauer. GDP/capita compared to world average ( ) Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. Illustration: Bauer. Source: Maddison database, own illustration methodology first applied by Böröcz (2009).

6 Empirical analysis International migration trends in the SEEMIG region, Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. Illustration: Bauer.

7 Managing Migration and its Effects in the SEE countries Empirical analysis Net migration dynamics in the SEEMIG region, Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. Illustration: Bauer.

8 Typology of SEEMIG countries by migration status (based on SEEMIG country reports, UN data and WIC flow data) Type Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Designation (Relatively) old immigration countries Emerging immigration countries Emigration countries Country typology Austria, Slovenia Hungary, Italy, Slovakia Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia* Characteristics Structural positive migration balance; starting consensus on immigration; after legislation gap a new migration regime is installed First positive migration balance; Immigration as conflictuous topic in the public discourse; starting adaptation Constant and negative migration balance; emigration (not immigration) are topics of public discourse Source: SEEMIG WP3 Synthesis Report (2014) based on Fassmann & Reeger (2008) modified and amended. *With the exception of major refugee inflows during wars in Yugoslavia in the early 1990s.

9 Managing Migration and its Effects in the SEE countries Empirical analysis SEEMIG Region in the global context ( ) Source: Abel & Sander 2014 Illustration: Sander & Bauer

10 Managing Migration and its Effects in the SEE countries Empirical analysis SEEMIG Region in the global context ( ) SEEMIG not a big global player increase of migration volume during 2000s (esp. inflows to Italy) flows from/to SEEMIG region concentrated within Europe Source: Abel & Sander 2014 Illustration: Sander & Bauer.

11 Managing Migration and its Effects in the SEE countries Empirical analysis SEEMIG Region in the European context ( ) Source: Abel & Sander 2014 Illustration: Sander, Bauer & Frank

12 Managing Migration and its Effects in the SEE countries Empirical analysis SEEMIG Region in the European context ( ) Within European migration system, SEEMIG has second largest migration volume Italy largest volume (esp. since 2000s), but also Serbia and Romania Source: Abel & Sander 2014 Illustration: Sander, Bauer & Frank.

13 Patterns: Population Development

14 Patterns: Demographic Typology

15 Longue durée: conclusions National specificities because of socio-political context Time breaks (of different impact in countries) Varying trajectories of social and economic development Convergence tendencies (e.g. fertility, infant mortality) Divergence tendencies (e.g. life expectancy) Migration as key driver of population development International migration dynamics follow partially overlapping and partially time-lagging migration cycles with the changing dominance from emigration to immigration.

16 Spatial dimension: conclusions Country level: East-West dichotomy (emigration countries immigration countries) Large scale regional disparities: demographic polarization (55% of NUTS3 regions shrinking) (urban/rural, center-periphery disparities) persistence of regional structures/specificities migration as reinforcing / counter-acting factor (e.g. remittances) Restricted comparability and meaningfulness of data (particularly at lower territorial level)

17 Thank you for your attention! Fassmann, Heinz Musil, Elisabeth Gruber, Kathrin (2013): Dynamic Historical Analysis of Longer Term Migratory, Labour Market and Human Capital Processes in the SEEMIG Region. Synthesis Country report developed within the project SEEMIG Managing Migration and Its Effects Transnational Actions Towards Evidence Based Strategies. /SEEMIGHistoricalAnalysisSEE Region.pdf