Monitoring and Predicting the NFL Draft

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1 Zignal Insights: Monitoring and Predicting the NFL Draft

2 The 2014 NFL Draft afforded us the opportunity to use Zignal to analyze one of the biggest events on social media. During this experiment, we engaged with NFL fans while also digging through the data to find exciting new insights and test our ability to monitor and predict real world events. THE RESULTS The NFL Draft drives an immense amount of traffic. There were over 500,000 mentions leading up to the event, topping out at over 93,000 per hour during the first picks at 8:10 pm. Despite the high volume, our realtime analytics kept up with the conversation, constantly updating for each round of breaking news, from rumors to the first pick. M E T HOD O LO G Y We monitored broadly, tracking all mentions of NFL Draft and #NFL Draft across all media types. Our coverage includes the full Twitter API, public Facebook, hundreds of thousands and news and blogs. Additionally, we used Issues for a second layer of Boolean searching to measure top prospects by position. While there was a significant amount of chatter in the day leading up to the event, momentum started to build most as a result of rumors, predictions, and as it became closer to the event. There were also spikes in the conversation near the end of the work day and immediately before the NFL Draft began. Popularity is a decent predictor of placement in the draft, with total mentions corresponding to pick placement in most cases. The exception to this is Johnny Manizel s popularity; while Jedeveon Clowney was expected to be the first pick (and was), Johnny Manziel was the most talked about athlete. Manziel was the 22nd pick in the first round. Analysis of the conversation in the seconds immediately after the first draft pick, accurately revealed the first pick, with the Houston Texans and Jadeveon Clowney showing up most prominently in the word cloud. 2

3 Social media was the primary medium of dialogue Trends Media outlets engaged with fans on social media more than through traditional news stories. Fans used Twitter to voice their predictions for draft day. As a result, speculation, predictions and rumors were prominent words in the word cloud throughout the day. Fans also used Twitter for celebrity gossip, fashion, and predictions about Walk Out Music. These types of tangential stories accounted for the majority of trending stories leading up to the event, highlighting the widespread appeal of this event. N E W MED IA A Vine of Jadeveon Clowney was a trending story, with 3,724 mentions before the draft Trending stories by top mentions on May 8th, the day of the draft 4

4 Traditional sports sources were influencers regardless of medium Trending and Popular Stories Traditional media outlets ranked highly among top influencers, with the NFL, ESPN, CBS Sports, and USA Today accounting for much of the shared content. The NFL s draft countdown tweet was a trending story throughout the day, with over 3,000 mentions. The NFL also had the 3rd most popular tweet. ESPN s story on Derek Carr ESPN also ranked highly among trending stories with a story about Derek Carr, a Quarterback from Fresno state. This story was shared 4,548 times. YouTube was also a prominent source and was ranked as the most shared site overall. The official NFL Twitter account s countdown tweet 5

5 Predictions and rumors drive the conversation Rumors Rumors began to leak at 9:00 am EST that the Dallas Cowboys were going to draft Johnny Manziel, a Quarterback from Texas A&M, causing the conversation to spike to around 10,000 mentions per hour. Cowboy-Manziel rumors Increasing Mentions The conversation began to gain momentum during the lunch hour on the East Coast. From noon to 1:00 pm EST there were 21,504 mentions. In the first 15 minutes, the conversation oeaked at 7 mentions per second. Mentions during lunch Quarter Million Mentions By 5:00 pm, the NFL Draft campaign had reached a quarter million total mentions. At this point there were more than 2,000 tweets per minute during the NFL Draft. The most talked about team throughout the day was the Houston Texans, reflecting their position as the first round draft pick. Mentions at end of work day 3

6 Popularity is often a good predictor of the draft Issue searches allowed us to add a second layer of boolean queries to our search and filter the results by position RESULTS Quarterback FALSE The most talked about Quarterback was Johnny Manziel, with 17,075 mentions before the draft, was 22nd pick. Blake Bortles, with 3,722 mentions was the first QB drafted. Defensive Ends TRUE Jadeveon Clowney was by far the most talked about Defensive End with 8,197 mentions, and was also the first pick overall. TRUE Running Backs TRUE Running backs were not popular with fans or the teams. Bishop Sankey was the first picked, as the 54th pick overall. He had 747 mentions before the draft. Wide Receivers The most popular Wide Receiver, Sammy Watkins, with 4,355 mentions was the first Wide Receiver pick. And the second most popular, Mike Evans, was also the second picked. TRUE Safeties Calvin Pryor was the first pick among Safeties and was the second most popular. The most popular, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was the 21st pick. FALSE Tight Ends TRUE The most popular Tight End, Eric Ebron was also the first pick. Cornerbacks The most popular (976 mentions) Corner Back, Justin Gilbert was picked first for this position. TRUE Inside Linebackers CJ Mosley, the only Inside Linebacker with significant mentions was the first picked as 17th overall. 6

7 Zignal visualizations show realtime changes in the conversation Immediately prior to the event, the word cloud widget highlighted the general conversation surrounding the event, including the NFL Draft official hashtag, walk-up songs, and coverage of the event. Word Cloud widget generated at 7:45 pm on May 8 At 8:00 pm, the Houston Texans picked Jadeveon Clowney, a Defensive End from South Carolina as the first overall pick in the draft. The word cloud widget visualized this change in the conversation immediately, with Clowney becoming the largest word overall. Word Cloud widget generated at 8:00 pm 7

Monitoring and Predicting the NFL Draft

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