COPYRIGHT 1982 BY THE FIELD INSTITUTE. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY.

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1 THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN STATEWIDE SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 19~7 BY MERVIN D. FIELD. 234 Front Street San FrancIsco 94] 1j (1) COPYRIGHT 1982 BY THE FIELD INSTITUTE. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY. Release #1160 Release date: Wednesday, April 14, 1982 BROWN'S IMAGE WELL DEFINED BUT HAS A NEGATIVE CAST. PERCEPTIONS OF GOLDWATER, WILSON AND McCLOSKEY LESS DEFINED, BUT POSITIVE. by Mervin D. Field Director, The California Poll IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents of report are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN ) The results of the most recent California Poll survey show Governor Jerry Brown way out in front in the Democratic Senatorial primary race, while in the Republican primary the three leaders are Congressman Barry Goldwater, Jr. (29%), San Diego Mayor Pete Wilson (24%) and Congressman Pete McCloskey (18%). In the same survey, a representative cross section of voters was also asked to describe what they liked and disliked about each candidate. Among these four Senatorial candidates, Brown's image is much more defined than his Republican counterparts. A majority (55%) of all registered voters can cite something positive about Brown, while 67% offer some negative comment about the Governor. At present, Goldwater's favorable to unfavorable image among all voters is 39% to 27% or about 3 to 2. In Wilson's case, it is 34% to 14% or about two and one-half favorable mentions for everyone unfavorable comment. In McCloskey's case it is 30% to 22% or about 3 to 2. The California Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent, impartial media sponsored public opinion news service. The Poll is one of the services provided by The field Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan organization devoted to the study of public opinion and behavior on social and political issues. The Field Institute is dedicated to encouraging the Widest possible dissemination of social survey findings to the public and for the public benefit. The institute receives its support from academic, governmental, media, and private sources.

2 The California Poll page two #1160 Proportion of voters who can cite something positive or negative about four Senatorial candidates Brown All voters Democrats Retlublicans Positive Negative Goldwater Wilson positive Negative Positive Negative McCloskey Positive Negative In the primary election the voters that the candidates are most concerned about are those of their own party. Among Democrats 69% offer something positive about Brown, but a very high proportion (59%) can also cite something negative about him. Among Republicans, Wilson appears to have the best positive to negative ratio of comments (49% favorable to 13% unfavorable or nearly 4 to 1). Goldwater is next with 55% favorable to 20% unfavorable or a ratio of nearly 3 to 1. McCloskey's 35% favorable to 19% unfavorable ratio among Republicans is less than 2 to 1. Here's what the voters currently say they like about Brown: "like his views on energy, natural resources, environmental measures" (22%); "he's strong, forthright, not afraid to take on unpopular issues" (20%); he's done a good job as Governor" (16%); "he's a liberal, tries to help the individual" (9%); "he's experienced, intelligent" (9%); "he's not a free spender, hasn't increased taxes" (6%); other positive mentions (8%); can't cite a?ything positive about Brown (45%).

3 The California Poll #1160 page three Negative comments about Brown include the following: "don't like his policies, stand on the issues" (28%); "he's wishy-washy, changes his stand on the issues" (22%); "he hasn't done a good job as governor" (13%); "he's a political opportunist, out for himself" (11%); "poor handling of the Medfly situation" (8%); "poor appointments to state offices" (4%); "he's never in the state" (4%); other negative mentions (8%); can't cite anything negative about Brown (33%). What voters like about Jerry Brown Like his views on energy, resources, environmental Forthright/willing to take stands up for his beliefs All voters % Democrats % Republicans % national measures risks/ Has done a good job as governor/ overall performance is good Liberal attitude/tries individual to help the Experienced/intelligent/informed issues Not a free increased on spender/frugal/hasn't taxes His father/he's Pat's son/comes good political family from a Other positive mentions Don't know/no answer What voters dislike about Jerry Brown A~l~l~v~o~t~e~r~s Democrats Republicans Don't like his policies/stand on the issues Wishy-washy/changes his stand on the issues Hasn't done a good job as Governor Political opportunist/out for himself/ using governor's office for own political gain Poor handling of the Medfly situation Poor appointments to state office Never in state/takes too much time off Other negative mentions Don't know/no answer Columns may add to more than 100% due to multiple mentions

4 The California Poll #1160 page four The following are things voters say they like about Goldwater: "like his name, like his father" (13%); "agree with his views on issues" (11%); "he's honest, caring" (8%); "he's a conservative, not liberal" (8%); "he's young, vigorous, strong, attractive" (5%); "he's intelligent, practical" (4%); other positive mentions (9%); can't cite anything positive about Goldwater (61%). Things voters dislike about Goldwater include: "he's too much like his father, treading in his father's footsteps" (6%); "he's a conservative, not a liberal" (6%); "don't agree with his views on current issues" (5%); "he's afraid to debate/not good in front of the media" (3%); "he's a Republican, don't like party views and policies" (3%); "he's inconsistent on issues" (3%); "he's hawkish, too belligerent" (2%); other negative mentions (5%);can't cite anything negative about Goldwater (73%). What voters like about Barry Goldwater All voters Republicans Democrats His name/like his father Agree with his views on issues Honest/caring He's conservative/not liberal Young/vigorous/strong/attractive Intelligent/practical Other positive mentions Don't know/no answer What voters dislike about Barry Goldwater All voters Republicans Democrats Too much like his father/treading in father's footsteps He's conservative/not liberal Don't agree with his views on current issues Afraid to debate/not good in front of the media He's a Republican/don't like party views and policies Inconsistent on issues/not forceful Hawkish/too belligerent Other negative mentions Don't know/no answer Columns may add to more than 100% due to multiple mentions

5 The California Poll #1160 page five Likes about Wilson among statewide voters include: "he has done a good job as Mayor of San Diego" (14%); "he's honest, straightforward" (9%); "he's capable and gets the job done" (7%); "he's appealing, he's got a good personality" (7%); "he's concerned, public oriented" (4%); "he's informed on the issues, intelligent" (3%); "he is experienced, a good leader" (2%); other positive mentions (11%); can't cite anything positive about Wilson (66%). Things voters dislike about Wilson are: "he's too young/inexperienced" (3%); "he's a Republican, don't like his party views" (3%); "he's an opportunist, out for himself (2%); "he hasn't done a very good job as Mayor of San Diego" (1%); "he supports Reagan's budget cuts" (1%); "he's dishonest, has misallocated government funds" (1%); other negative mentions (6%); can't cite anything negative about Wilson (86%). What voters like about Pete Wilson All Voters Republicans Democrats Has done a good job as Mayor of San Diego Honest/straightforward/forthright Gets the job done/capable General appeal/good personality Concerned/public oriented/gets involved Informed on the issues/intelligent Experienced/a leader/good businessman Other positive mentions Don I t know/no answer What voters dislike about Pete Wilson All voters Republicans Democrats Too young/inexperienced He's a Republican/don't like his party views 3 4 * Opportunist/out for himself Hasn't done a very good job as Mayor of San Diego 1 * 1 Supports Reagan's budget cuts/social welfare programs/cuts in social security 1 1 * Dishonest/misallocation of governments funds Other negative mentions Don't know/no answer *Less than 0.5% Columns may add to more than 100% due to multiple mentions

6 ~ 't.. r~ _ The California Poll #1160 page six. Likes about McCloskey include the following: "he's responsive to social issues, like his views on issues" (11%); "he says what he believes, not influenced by Republican Party policies" (10%); "he's honest, open, fair, sincere" (9%); "he's well informed, intelligent" (5%); "he's experienced, a good Congressman" (4%); "he's good looking, has good personality" (4%); "he's liberal" (1%); other positive mentions (2%); can't cite anything positive about McCloskey (70%). Things which people dislike about McCloskey are: "he's a Republican" (7%); "he's too liberal, not conservative" (5%); "disagree with his views on Middle East/P.L.O." (2%); "disagree with his views on Vietnam" (2%); "not well informed on issues" (2%); "don't like his position on the issues" (1%); "he supports Reaganomics" (1%); other negative mentions (5%); can't cite anything negative about McCloskey (78%). What voters like about Pete McCloskey All voters Republicans Democrats Responsive to social issues/like his views on issues Says what he believes/straight forward/ not influenced by Republican Party He's honest/sincere/fair He's well informed/intelligent/ knowledgeable He's experienced/a good Congressman He's good looking/nice presentation/ good personality He's liberal Other positive mentions Don't know/no answer What voters dislike about Pete McCloskey All voters Republicans Democrats He's a Republican 7 * 13 Too liberal/not conservative Disagree with his views on the Middle East/P.L.O. Disagree with his views on Vietnam Not well informed on issues His position on issues His support of Reaganomics 1 * 3 Other negative mentions Don't know/no answer *Less than 0.5% Columns may add to more than 100% due to multiple mentions -30

7 THE INDEPENDENT P,ND NON-P.!\RTISAN STAHWiOF SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINior~ ESTABliSHED IN 13~7 B ( MERVIN D. FIELD. 234 Fionl Stren! SrlnFl:HlclSCtJ J!] {415i'l92'J/bJ INFORMATION ABOUT THE SURVEY #1160 SAMPLE DETAILS The survey was taken among a representative cross section of 1128 California adults who say they are currently registered to vote or intend to register for the June 1982 Primary Election. Interviewing was done by telephone March 18 through March 23, 1982 during the late afternoon and evening on weekdays and all day Saturday and Sunday. To cover a broad range of topics and still minimize possible respondent fatigue, the overall sample was divided into four approximately equal sized subsamples each containing questions relating to the likes and dislikes of the four Senatorial candidates listed here along with other statewide political figures. The base for likes and dislikes about Brown are: 280 registered voters 150 Democrats, 94 Republicans and 36 others. The bases for likes and dislikes about Goldwater and Wilson are: 284 registered voters Democrats, 103 Republicans and 32 others. The base for likes and dislikes about Mccloskey are 284 registered voters, 146 Democrats, 103 Republicans and 35 others. QUESTIONS ASKED Let's talk about Governor Jerry Brown who is a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senator. What do you think about Jerry Brown? (PROBE: "Anything else?") What do you dislike about Brown? (PROBE: "Anything else?") Let's talk about Congressman Barry Goldwater, Jr. who is a Republican candidate for U.S. Senator. What do you like about Goldwater? (PROBE: "Anything else?") What do you dislike about Goldwater? (PROBE: "Anything else?") Let's talk about San Diego Mayor Pete Wilson who is a Republican candidate for U.S. Senator. What do you like about Wilson? (PROBE: "Anything else?") What do you dislike about Wilson? (PROBE: "Anything else?") Let's talk about Congressman Pete McCloskey who is a Republican candidate for U.S. Senator. What do you like about McCloskey? (PROBE: "Anything else?" ) What do you dislike about McCloskey? (PROBE: "Anything else?") The California Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent, impartial media sponsored public opinion news service. The Poll is one of the services provided by The Field Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan organization devoted to the study of public opinion and behavior on social and political issues_ The Field Institute is dedicated to encouraging the widest possible dissemination of social survey findings to the public and for the public benefit. The Institute receives its support from academic, governmental, media, and private sources.

8 Poll Operation and Sponsorship The California Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent. non-partisan media sponsored public opinion news service. The Poll is owned by Field Research Corporation and since 1976 h~s b~en'operated bv The Field Institute, a non-pro.flt. non- partisan research group engaged. in ~n.d.uctlng studiesof public opinion on issuesof SOCIal SIgnIfIcance. The Institute receives its financial support from academic. governmental. media and private sources. Survey Method Interviews in this survey were made by telephone. Sample homes are drawn in accordance with a probability sample design that gives all areas of. the state and all neighborhoods a properly proportionate chance to be included. Telephone numbers are randomly generated by computer in proportion to local prefix allocation density to remove non-listed telephone biases. Up to four calls are made ~o each number at different times to reach one adult In each household. An adult respondent is selected for the interview using an objective procedure to provide a balance of age and sex Accuracy of the Findings Several factors must be considered in assessing the accuracy of the findings in this and other California Poll reports. One is the amount of tolerance in the findings due to the presence of random variations inherent in the sampling process itself. Another are any inaccuracies caused by judgemental factors such as question wording and sample design: and a third are the effects ofexternal events Sampling Tolerance The amount of sampling tolerance in these surve:v findings can be estimated quite precisely by the use of well-tested statistical formulas. The California Poll uses an advanced method known as replicated sampling that provides an empirically determined estimate of the range of so-called sampling error for each item of information developed by the survey. This method takes account of the size of the sample. the degree of variability in response to each item. sample design effects (clustering, weighting), and the effects of variable interviewer and coder performance. An estimate of the sampling error range for this survey is shown in the table below. The sampling tolerance has been calculated at two statistical confidence levels which are customarily used by social scientists - the 95'70 and the 99'70 level. To use the table, first select the sample size on which the percentage in question is based. Then note the plus and minus range of sampling tolerance for the degree of confidence desired and apply this to the percentage figure. The resulting "high" and "low" estimates show the range within which we can have 95'70 (or 99'70) confidence that if the whole population of the state had been surveyed with the same questionnaire, the results of such a complete coverage would fall between the two figures obtained from the data in the table. The sample tolerance figures shown in the table are average figures derived from the actual experience of a number of recent surveys. They represent maximum tolerances for the sample bases shown, i.e., for survey findings where the division of opinion is around 50'70-50'70. Survey findings that show a more one-sided distribution of opinion, such as 70'70-30'70 or 90'70-10%, are usually subject to slightly lower sampling tolerance than those shown in the table. Table of Sampling Tolerances for Data from Surveys of The California Poll Plus/minus percentage range of sampling tolerance at- Sample Size 95'70 confidence 99"70 confidenc~ ~ /\ Other Possible Sources of Error In addition to sampling error, there are other important sources of potential inaccuracies in these (and in other) poll findings. These sources include the effects of possibly biased or misleading questions, possible systematic omission of relevant segments of the population from the survey sample, and the effects of significant events that occur during or after the time the survey interviews are made. There is no standard measure of these effects; each must be evaluated judgmentally. Furthermore, since the influence of these factors on the ultimate accuracy of the survey findings may be many times greater than the amount of sampling error. it is important that they also be carefully weighed. So that the reader will have information needed to judge the possible importance of these effects. The California Poll provides this bulletin with each release, describing the question(s) used, the size and type of sample used, and the dates of interviewing. The California Poll has an excellent record for accuracy in reflecting public opinion during its 33 year history. The staff of The California Poll takes great care to formulate questions which we feel are objective and unbiased and to carefully supervise the data gathering phases and other research operations upon which the Poll's findings are based. Nevertheless, users of this (and any other public opinion polling data) should be continually mindful of all of the factors that influence any poll's accuracy. Sampling error is not the only criterion. and we caution against citing only the sampling error figure alone as the measure of a survey's accuracy, since to do so tends to create an impression of a greater degree of precision than has in fact been achieved. Suggested copy for editors to use when presenting California Poll data in publication or newscast Surveys of the kind reported here by The California Poll are subject to variability due to sampling factors and to other possible sources of influence on their accuracy. The statewide sample results shown in this report are subject to a sampling tolerance of plus or minus approximately percentage points. The (reader) (viewer) (listener) should also be aware, however, that 'there are other possible sources of error for which precise estimates cannot be calculated. For example, different results might have been obtained from different question wording, and undetected flaws in the way the sampling and interviewing procedures were carried out could have a significant effect on the findings. Good polling practices diminish the chances of such errors. but they can never be entirely ruled out. It is also possible, of course, that events occuring since the time the interviews were conducted could have changed the opinions reported here. TI