234 Front Street San FrancIsco 9411 J (415) 3~ COPYRIGHT 1982 BY THE FIELD INSTITUTE. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY.

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1 THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN STATEWIDE SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPII~ION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 BY MERVIN [) FIELIJ. 234 Front Street San FrancIsco 9411 J (415) 3~ COPYRIGHT 1982 BY THE FIELD INSTITUTE. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY. Release #1200 Release date: Monday, November 1, 1982 FINAL PRE-ELECTION POLL IMPORTANT: Contract for this service BRADLEY AND WILSON MAINTAINING is subject to revocation if publica LEADS. "No" SIDES AHEAD IN tion or broadcast takes place before PROPS. 15 AND 11 CONTESTS. release date or if contents of report OPPOSITION TO PROP. 12 GROWING. are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. by Mervin D. Field (ISSN ) Director, The CaZifoT'nia Poll In a final pre-election cross section survey, complete~ October The CalifoT'nia Poll found the following results:...tom Bradley holding a seven point lead over George Deukrnejian in the Governor's contest (49% to 42%).... Pette Wilson clinging to a five point lead (47% to 42%) over Jerry Brown in the U.S. Senate race.... The negative tide against Proposition 15, the Handgun Control measure, continued with the "No" vote exceeding the "Yes" vote by 15 percentagef points (54% to 39%)....Opposition to Proposition 12, the Nuclear Freeze initiative, still growing with the "Yes" plurality dropping to just six percentage pointlo (47% to 41%). One month ago supporters were in the lead by 24 points. Last week that margin had halved to Opposition to Proposition 11, the Beverage Container measure, was also surging. For the first time during the campaign the "No" side was in the lead (47% to 44%). was in the lead by 20 points. As recently as one month ago, the "Yes" side... In the State School superintendent run-off election, challenger Bill Honig continued to make gains against incumbent Wilson Riles. Honig had closed the gap against Riles to where he was just two points behind in this I latest survey (42% to 40%). '... In the Lieutenant Governor's race Democrat Leo ~~CarthY was holding an. eleven point lead over GOP Nominee Carol Hallett (47% to 36%). i I I, I The California Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent, impar\iaj media sponsored public opinion news service. The Poll is one of the services 'provided by The Field Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan?r~ani~1tion 'ij~vdled to the study of public opinion a~d behavior on social an.d POlitic.al issues. The Field Institute is dedicated to encouraging the widest possible ~issemina~lon of social ~urvey findings to the public and for the public benefit. The Institute receives its support from academic, governmental, media,. and private! sources. I

2 The California Poll page two # The division of preference in the Proposition 13 contest (Water Resources) had narrowed to just five points (35% "Yes" to 30% "No").... The vote on the reapportionment measure (Proposition 14) was also very close with the "Yes" side leading by just three points (28% to 25%)....Proposition 9, the School Textbook measure, was leading 36% to 27%.... Democrat John Van de Kamp was leading Republican George Nicholson in the race for Attorney General, 49% to 26%. Democratic incumbents March Fong Eu, Ken Cory and Jesse Unruh in their re-election bids for Secretary of State, Controller and Treasurer each were holding large leads over their GOP rivals.... The shape of voter feeling about the U.S. Supreme Court Justices up for a confirmation vote had remained relatively unchanged from the survey taken a week ago. Each of the three justices appointed by Governor Brown (Allen Broussard, otto Kaus and Cruz Reynoso) had pluralities in their favor ranging from 10 to 14 points. Justice Frank Richardson, appointed by then Governor Ronald Reagan, had a 29 point confirmation lead. This latest survey found the vote for Governor divided sharply along race and ethnic lines. Deukmejian was leading Bradley 48% to 44% among Whites, who represented 80% of the likely voter sample. Nineteen out of twenty Blacks, who overall represented just 7% of all likely voters, favored Bradley. Hispanics, representing 9% of the likely vote, were divided 62% to 27% in favor of Bradley. Asians and others, who accounted for 4% of the likely voters, favored Bradley by 60% to 30%. These findings indicate that the shape of voter turnout on Tuesday will be a critical factor in deciding the outcome. If the combined minority group voter turnout is significantly less than 20% of the total it could result in a close election and a possible Bradley loss. In this survey a sample of 1,562 adults was contacted. Findings are based on a sub-base of 942 people who can be classified as likely voters i.e., they are registered and maintain a strong intention to vote on November 2 and either voted in November 1980 or are newly eligible.

3 The California Poll #1200 page three Preferences for Governor (Oct ) Unaided Cumulative response preferences crystallized Aided (after vote response probe) % % % Bradley Deukmejian Others 1 1 Undecided *These include Dan Dougherty, Libertarian; James Griffin, American Independent; and Elizabeth Martinez, Peace and Freedom. Preferences for Governor - (Trend) Bradley Deukmejian undecided October % 42 9 October % October % 39 8 August 47% June 8 voters 45% Early June 49% 44 7 May 52% 39 9 March 50% January 50% Preferences for Senator (Oct ) Unaided Cumulative response preferences crystallized Aided (after vote response probe) % % % Wilson Brown Others* Undecided *These include Joseph Fuhrig, Libertarian; Theresa Dietrich, American Independent; and David Wald, Peace and Freedom. Preferences for Senator - (Trend) Wilson Brown undecided October % October % October % August 48% June 8 voters 49% Early June 57% 35 8 May 52% 40 8 March 51% January 5\% I

4 The California Poll page four Preferences for Attorney General October Van de Kamp Nicholson undecided 49% October % October % August 30% (The 25% figlo'e in the "others/undecided" column is comprised of 22% who are undecided and an aggregate of 3% who favor other candidates including Bartholomew Lee, Libertarian and Dan Siegel, Peace and Freedom.) Preferences for Lt. Governor McCarthy Hallett undecided October % October % October % August 31% (The 17% figlo'e in the "othel's/undecided" column is comprised of 15% who are undecided and an aggregate of 2% who favor other candidates including John Vernon, Libertarian; Houston Myers, American Independent; and Clyde Kuhn, Peace and Freedom.) Preferences for State Controller Cory Flournoy undecided October % October % October % August 44% (The 21 % figlo'e in the "others/undecided" column is ccmprised of 17% who are undecided and an aggregate of 4% who favor other candidates including Mary Gingell, Libertarian; Pat Graham, American Independent; Florence McDonald, Peace and Freedom.) Preferences for State Treasurer Unruh French undecided October % October % October % August 42% (The 20% figupe in the "others/undecided" column is ccrnprised of 18% who are undecided and an aggregate of 2% who favor other candidates including Less Antman, Libertarian, Robert Charlton, American Independent, and Kevin Akin, Peace and Freedom.)

5 The California Poll #1200 page five Preferences for State School Superintendent Riles Honig Undecided October % October % October % August 31% Preferences for Secretary of State Eu Duffy undecided October % October % October % August 47% (The 17% figuj'e in the "others/undecided" column is comprised of 14% who are undecided and an aggregate of 3% who favor candidates including Martin Buerger, Libertarian, Alfred Smith, American Independent; Milton Takei, Peace and Freedom.) Supreme Court Justice Confirmation Name of Justice August % --%- --% % Allen E. Broussard YES, to retain NO, to remove Undecided otto M. Kaus YES, to retain NO, to remove Undecided Cruz Reynoso YES, to retain NO, to remove Undecided Frank K. Richardson YES, to retain NO, to remove Undecided Proposition 15 - Handgun Control August -%- --%- --% % Have not seen or heard Have seen or heard Would vote YES Would vote NO Undecided

6 The California Poll #1200 page six Proposition 12 - Nuclear Freeze %- -% August -% % Have not seen or heard Have seen or heard Would vote YES Would vote NO Undecided Proposition 11 - Bottle Bill August --%- -%- -% % Have not seen or heard Have seen or heard Would vote YES Would vote NO Undecided Proposition 13 - Water Resources August -%--%- -% % Have not seen or heard Have seen or heard Would vote YES Would vote NO Undecic1ed proposition 14 - Reapportionment August -%--%-- -%- % Have not seen or heard Have seen or heard Would vote YES Would vote NO Undecided Proposition 9 - School Textbooks Have not seen or heard Have seen or heard Would vote YES Would vote NO Undecided , %--%- -% -30

7 SAMPLE DETAILS INFORMATION ABOUT THE SURVEY #1200 This survey was taken among a representative cross section of Californians. A total of 1,562 adults were contacted by telephone October 29-31, 1982 during the late afternoon and evening hours on weekdays, all day Saturday and Sunday until 2:00 PM. The sample on which this report is based consisted of 942 registered voters who said they were certain to vote in the November 2 General Election and either voted in the last Presidential Election or are newly registered to vote. QUESTIONS ASKED As you know, several people are running for Governor of California in next week's General Election. Suppose the election for Governor were being held today. Who do you think you would vote for in the Governor's race? (IF RESPONDENT DOES NOT ANSWER, SAYS "DON'T KNOW," OR MENTIONS SOMEONE NOT LISTED) The candidates for Governor are Tom Bradley, Democrat; George Deukmejian, Republican; Dan Dougherty, Libertarian; James Griffin, American Independent; and Elizabeth Martinez, Peace and Freedom. If you were voting today for Governor, who would you vote for? IF RESPONDENT ANSWERS "DON'T KNOW") Just suppose you had to make up your mind today in the Governor's race. Who would you vote for--bradley, Deukmejian or one of the other candidates? Next in the race for U.S. Senate in next week's General Election. Suppose the election for U.S. Senate were being held today, who do you think you would vote for? (IF RESPONDENT DOES NOT ANSWER, SAYS "DON'T KNOW," OR MENTIONS SOMEONE NOT LISTED) The candidates for U.S. Senate are Jerry Brown, Democrat; Pete Wilson, Republican; Joseph Fuhrig, Libertarian; Theresa Diet rich, American Independent; and David Wald, Peace and Freedom. If you were voting today for U.S. Senate, who would you vote for? (IF RESPONDENT ANSWERS "DON'T KNOW") Just suppose you had to make up your mind today in the U.S. Senate race. Who would you vote for--brown, Wilson, or one of the other candidates? In the race for Attorney General. If the election for State Attorney General were being held today, who do you think you would vote for? (IF RESPONDENT DOES NOT ANSWER, SAYS "DON'T KNOW," OR MENTIONS SOMEONE NOT LISTED, ASK) The candidates in the race for State Attorney General are John Van de Kamp, Democrat; George Nicholson, Republican; Bartholomew Lee, Libertarian; and Dan Siegel, Peace and Freedom. If you were voting today for State Attorney General, who would you vote for? (IF RESPONDENT ANSWERS "DON'T KNOW") Just suppose you had to make up your mind today in the race for State Attorney General. Who would you vote for--van de Kam?, Nicholson, or one of the other candidates? Next in the race for State Superintendent of Public Instruction. If the election for State School Superintendent were being held today, who do you think you would vote for? (IF RESPONDENT DOES NOT ANSWER, SAYS "DON "1' KNOW," OR MENTIONS SOMEONE NOT LISTED) The candidates in the race for State School Superintendent are Wilson Riles and Bil~ Honig. If you were voting today for State School Superintendent, who would you vote for? (IF RESPONDENT ANSWERS "DON'T KNOW") Just suppose you had to make up your mind in the State School SUPerintendent race. Who would you vote for--riles or Honig? In the race for Lieutenant Governor. If the election for Lieutenant Governor were being held today, who do you think you would vote for? (IF RESPONDENT DOES NOT ANSWER, SAYS "DON'T KNOW," OR MENTIONS SOMEONE NOT LISTED) The candidates in the Lieutenant Governor's race are Leo McCarthy, Democrat; Carol Hallett, Republican; John Vernon, Libertarian; Houston Myers, American Independent; and Clyde Kuhn, Peace and Freedom. If you were voting today for Lieutenant Governor, who would you vote for? (IF RESPONDENT ANSWERS "DON'T KNOW") Just suppose you had to make up your mind today in the Lieutenant Governor's race. Who would you vote for--mccarthy, Hallett or one of the other candidates? Next in the race for State Treasurer. If the election for State Treasurer were being held today, who do you think you would vote for? (IF RESPONDENT DOES NOT ANSWER, SAYS "DON'T KNOW," OR MENTIONS SOMEONE NOT LISTED) The candidates in the race for State Treasurer are Jesse Unruh, Democrat; Donald French, Republican; Less Antman, Libertarian; Robert Charlton.' American Independent; and Kevin Akin, Peace and Freedom. If you were voting today for State Treasurer, who would you vote for? (IF RESPONDENT ANSWERS "DON'T KNOW") Just suppose you had to make up your mind today in the race for State Treasurer. Who'would you ~ote for-- Unruh. French or one of the other candidates? ',.. i i.

8 lliformation ABOUT THE SURVEY - (Continued) #1200 Next in the race for California Secretary of State. If the election for California Secretary of State were being held today, who do you think you would vote for? (IF RESPONDENT DOES NOT ANSWER, SAYS "DON'T KNOW," OR MENTIONS SOMEONE NOT LISTED) The candidates in the race for California Secretary of State are March Fong Eu, Democrat; Gordon Duffy, Republican; Martin Buerger, Libertarian; Alfred Smith, American Independent; and Milton Shiro Takei, Peace and Freedom. If you were voting today,for California Secretary of State, who would you vote for? (IF RESPONDENT ANSWERS "DON'T KNOW") Just suppose you had to make up your mind today in the race for California Secretary of State. Who would you vote for- March Fong Eu, Gordon Duffy, or one of the other candidates? Next in the race for State Controller. If the election for State Controller were being held today, who do you think you would vote for? (IF RESPONDENT DOES NOT ANSWER, SAYS "DON'T KNOW," OR MENTIONS SOMEONE NOT LISTED) The candidates in the race for State Controller are Ken Cory, Democrat; James Flournoy, Republican; Mary Gingell, Libertarian; Pat Graham, American Independent; and Florence McDonald, Peace and Freedom. If you were voting today for State Controller, who would you vote for? (IF RESPONDENT ANSWERS "DON'T KNOW") Just suppose you had to make up your mind in the race for State Controller. Who would you vote for--cory, Flournoy or one of the other candidates? In next week's General Election voters will be asked to vote for or against a number of State Supreme Court Justices who are now serving in office. As I read each one please tell me whether you would vote to have that person remain on the court or be removed. Have Have you seen or heard anything about a proposition having to do with schrol textbooks for nonpublic schools that will appear on next week's statewide election ballot? Well (as you know)there is Proposition 9. It would authorize that textbooks of pupils attending public schools be loaned on a library-type basis to nonpublic school pupils. If you were voting today, would you vote Yes or No on Proposition 9? you seen or heard anything about a proposition having to do with returnable bottles and cans that will be on next week's statewide election ballot? Well (as you know), there is Proposition 11. It is an initiative requiring that a 5 cent deposit be paid on all empty beverage containers. If you were voting today, would you vote YES or NO on Proposition II? Have you seen or heard anything about a proposition having to do with nuclear weapons that will be on the next week's statewide election ballot? Well (as you kno~), there is Proposition 12, the so-called "nuclear freeze" initiative. It requlres that the Governor write the President urging the United States and the Soviet Union to jointly halt nuclear weapons testing, production and development. If you were voting today, would you vote YES or NO on Proposition l2? Have you seen or heard anything about a proposition having to do with water conservation that will be on next week's statewide election ballot? Well (as you know) there is Proposition 13. It establishes new interbasin and instream water conservation programs and regulates against the overpumping of groundwater in critical areas. If you were voting today, would you vote Yes or No on Proposition l3? Have you seen or heard anything about a proposition having to do with the way legislative and congressional district lines are drawn that will be on next week's statewide election ballot? Well (as you know), there is Proposition 14. It would take from the state legis 'lature the power to redraw legislative and congressional district lines and shift this responsibility to a new commission. If you were voting today, would you vote Yes or No on Proposition l4? Have you seen or heard anything about a proposition having to do with handguns that will be on next week's statewide election ballot? Well (as you know), there is Proposition 15. It is a gun control initiative that limits the number of handguns allowed in California and requires all existing handguns to be registered. If you were voting today, would you vote YES or NO on Proposition l5?