COPYRIGHT 1991 BY THE FIELD INSTITUTE. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY. Release Date: Release # 1585 FRIDAY, JUNE 14, 1991

Transcription

1 THE INDEPENDENT AND NO~HARTISAN STATEWIDE SURVEY OF PU8L1C UPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 BY MERVIN 0. FIELD. 234 Front Street COPYRIGHT 1991 BY THE FIELD INSTITUTE. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY. Release Date: Release # 1585 FRIDAY, JUNE 14, 1991 SEYMOUR LEADS DANNEMEYER IN GOP IMPORTANT: Contract for PRIMARY FOR TWO YEAR SENATE SEAT, BUT this service is subject to TRAILS FEINSTEIN AND DAVIS IN GENERAL revocation if publication or ELECTION MATCH-UPS. HERSCHENSOHN broadcast takes place before AND CAMPBELL DIVIDE EVENLY GOP release date or if contents are SUPPORT FOR SIX YEAR SEAT. divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to By Mervin Field and Mark DiCamillo release time. (ISSN ) The good news for U.S. Senator John Seymour is that he holds a sizeable lead over fellow Republican, Congressman William Dannemeyer, his announced opponent in next year's GOP primary election. The bad news for Seymour is that he trails each of two possible Democratic challengers, Dianne Feinstein and Gray Davis, when he is matched against them in simulated 1992 November general election contests. Currently, Seymour is preferred over Dannemeyer 30% to 19% among Republican voters, with 51% undecided. In a previous measurement taken last February Seymour's margin over Dannemeyer was 35% to 14%. In simulated general election "trial heats" Seymour trails both Feinstein and Davis by sizeable margins. ; ;:~iri!nstltute ~1 non-profit,!'"ion-partisan organiz,lt1on devoted to the study of publl::: opllllor and Dehav:c r fjn so':tal and polltlcal J'~ue~,. fll" j~;~~ir;!l:.' :" olid!catt2d to encouraging the ~videst possible dissemination of SOCial 'iurvey findings to the public and for the public benefit rht, : f1-':t!tlitf; ('::'(;('1\12:- its suppcrt f'"orn academic. governmental, media, and private sources.

2 The California Poll #1585 Page 2 June 1991 Feb Feinstein 51% 46% Seym~ur Undecided June 1991 Feb Davis 50% 43% Seymour Undecided Six Year Seat GOP Candidates Two Republicans have announced that they will run in next year's election race for the so-called six year U.S. Senate seat: Bruce Herschensohn, a Los Angeles TV commentator, who finished second in the 1986 GOP U.S. Senate primary and Northern California (Stanford) Congressman Tom Campbell. GOP Congressman (Garden Grove) Robert Doman, who earlier was reportedly considering running for the office, formally withdrew this week. Another Republican Southern California (La Verne) Congressman, David Dreier, is reported to be a possible candidate. In the current survey, Doman's name was originally listed with the three other Republicans. However, because second choice preferences were also obtained in the survey, it is possible to allocate Dornan's first choice votes to the other three candidates. The results show that without Doman in the race, Campbell and Herschensohn are virtually tied: Campbell 21 % and Herschensohn 20%, with Dreier at 9%. If Dreier's

3 i The California Poll #1585 Page 3 name is deleted from the list, his second choice preferences produce a division of 24% Campbell and 22% Herschensohn, with 54% undecided. Neither Herschensohn nor Campbell do very well when each is matched against five possible Democratic opponents in simulated general election match-ups for the six year seat. Herschensohn loses to Democrats Lt. Governor Leo McCarthy, State Controller Gray Davis, and Congresswoman Barbara Boxer (Marin), but holds small leads over Congressman Mel Levine (Pacific Paldisades) and is tied with Jerry Brown, former Governor. Campbell also trails McCarthy and Davis but by smaller margins than Herschensohn. Campbell leads Brown by six points, Boxer by seven points and is fourteen points ahead of Levine. Table} Possible Democratic 'Is. Republican 1992 General Election Match~up~f6fSixYearSenate Seat (amons atlvoters) Brown 39% Campbell 45% Undecided 16% McCarthy 44% Campbell 37% Undecided 19% Davis 47% Campbell 31% Undecided 22% Boxer 32% Campbell 39% Undecided 29% Levine 24% Campbell 38% Undecided 38% Brown 41% Herschensohn 41% Undecided 18% McCarthy 51% Herschensohn 32% Undecided 17% Davis 51% Herschensohn 28% Undecided 21% Boxer 39% Herschensohn 34% Undecided 27% Levine 29% Herschensohn 34% Undecided 37% Low J.D. Ratings for GOP Candidates the Last January, Seymour was appointed by Governor Pete Wilson to fill Wilson's unexpired term as U.S. Senator. While Seymour had previously served in the California State Senate representing an Orange County District, he is not well-known throughout state. In the table below, it can be seen that Seymour has a relatively low statewide "Identification Rating" -- just 39% among both a cross-section of all voters and among his own party members. However, Dannemeyer, his primary election opponent, and the

4 The California Poll #1585 Page 4 other Republicans running for the six year seat are even less known on a statewide basis than is Seymour. Another question asked Republicans the degree to which they would be inclined or not inclined to vote for each potential GOP candidate. The results show that the basic inclination to vote for any of the Republican candidates is relatively low. No single candidate receives more than 29% of the rank-and-file GOP support at this time, with a majority neither inclined nor disinclined

5 The California Poll Page 5 Table 5 #1585 Seymour Herschensohn Campbell Dannemeyer Dreier Inclination to Vote for Each of Five U.S/SenatdriaIPossiblities (among 'Republicans)... Inclined 29~ 23~ 21~ 20~ 12~ Not Inclined No Opinion

6 The California PolllPage 6 #1585 Sample Details Information About the Survey The survey was conducted by telephone May 30 - June 10, 1991 among a statewide crosssection sample of 1,132 registered or likely to register voters. Republican Primary election questions were asked of a subsample of 475 registered or likely to register Republicans. In order to cover a broad range of issues and still minimize possible respondent fatigue, the overall sample was divided into two approximately equal sized subsamples for the name identification and general election trial heat questions in this report. There are many possible sources of error in any survey. Different results could occur because of differences in question wording, sequencing, and non-response bias as well as undetected flaws in sampling, interviewing or data processing. As far as sampling error estimates are concerned, statistical formulae suggest that 95% of the time the results from the overall registered voter sample would have a sampling error of +\- 4.5 percentage points, while results from each of the overall subsamples and the Republican voter sample would have a sampling error of +\. 4.3 percentage points. The overall sample was weighted to bring it into conformity with parameters of the registered voter population statewide. Questions Asked (ASKED OF SUBSAMPLES OF ALL VOTERS) I am going to read some names of people who are talked about in public affairs and politics in California. As I read each name, please tell me whether your opinion of that person is favorable, unfavorable, or whether you don't knowenough about that person to have an opinion. Is your opinion of==-=-= favorable or unfavorable? (SEE RELEASE FOR NAMES READ) (NAMES RANDOMIZED TO AVOID POSSIBLE SEQUENCE BIAS) (ASKED OF REPUBLICANS ONLY) There will be primary elections next year for two U.S. Senate seats and a number of prominent Republicans have been mentioned as possible candidates. I am going to read the names of some of these people to you. For each, please tell me whether you would be inclined or not inclined to vote for that person for one of the RepUblican nominations for U.S. Senate in 1992, or whether you don't know enough about him or her to have an opinion. You may name as many or as few people as you want as being persons you would be inclined to vote for. The first name is... Would you be inclined or not inclined to vote for for U.S. Senate? (SEE RELEASE FOR NAMES READ) (NAMES RANDOMIZED TO AVOID POSSIBLE SEQUENCE BIAS) Suppose that in the other Republican Senate primary contest there were four candidates (SEE RELEASE FOR NAMES READ). If the election were being held today, who would be your first choice? Who would be your second choice? Suppose that in one of the Republican Senate primary contests next year, John Seymour was running against William Dannemeyer. If the election were being held today, who would you vote for - Seymour or Dannemeyer? (ASKED OF SUBSAMPLES OF ALL VOTERS) Next, I am going to read a series of possible general election match-ups for the U.S. Senate seats in California next year. For each pairing, please tell me who you would vote for if the election were being held today. What if the choices were... --who would you prefer? (SEE RELEASE FOR NAMES READ) (PAIRINGS RANDOMIZED TO AVOID POSSIBLE SEQUENCE BIAS)