Hillary Clinton Leading the Democratic Race in California

Transcription

1 California Democratic Candidates Statewide Survey Date: February 15, 2007 Sample size 865 +/- 3.3 percent sampling error February 9 13, 2007 Contact: Raul Furlong Hillary Clinton Leading the Democratic Race in California San Diego A poll released today by Datamar Inc., based on a comprehensive predictive model of likely voters, based on election cycles and other factors, shows that U.S. Senator from New York City Hillary Clinton has the strongest support, 34.3%, of Democratic voters. Second placed candidate U.S. Senator from Illinois Barack Obama trails first place with 23.6%. Former Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards is in third place with 16.2% of the vote. Democratic Presidential Candidates Clinton 34.3 Obama 23.6 Edwards 16.2 Richardson 7.2 Kucinich Biden Dodd Gravel Vilsak Dk Dk Vilsak Gravel Dodd Biden Kucinich Richardson Edwards Obama Clinton Democrats

2 The fourth largest group, at 9.2%, represents voters that are undecided. When the survey is analyzed among philosophical categories, the only Democratic candidate, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich has overwhelming support, 61%, of the very liberal group. All other candidates support is below 30% each in the very liberal category. The survey also shows six of the nine candidates polled have most of their support in the somewhat liberal group. This include, Clinton at 60.9%, Obama at 51 %, Edwards at 50.7%, Biden at 55.8%, Dodd at 57.1%, and Vilsak with an even 50% support, all the other candidate s support fall below 30% in the somewhat liberal group. Very liberal Somewhat liberal Somewhat conservative Very Conservative Undecided Total Undecided Vilsak Gravel Dodd Biden Kucinich Richardson Edwards Obama Clinton

3 Philosophical Divisions Clinton Obama Edwards Richardson Kucinich Biden Dodd Gravel Vilsak Undecided Undecided Vilsak Gravel Dodd Biden Kucinich Richardson Edwards Obama Clinton Undecided Very Conservative Somewhat conservative Somewhat liberal Very liberal

4 Sample size 865 +/- 3.3 percent sampling error February 9 13, 2007 Methodology: Findings are based on a February 9 13, 2007, comprehensive predictive model of likely voters, based on election cycles and other factors of voters in California using an automated telephone dialer and the voice of a professional announcer. A Datamar proprietary algorithm was used to generate random samples of voters for calling. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 3.3 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, and political party. 4

5 Sample size 865 +/- 3.3 percent sampling error February 9 13, 2007 California Democratic Candidates Statewide Survey Toplines Crosstabs are available for each individual question in the survey. Q1. Are you registered to vote in California? February 15, 2007 California Survey Yes Q2. Are you registered as Democrat, Republican, another party, or as no party registration? Democrat 82.9 Another party 11.3 No party registration 5.8 Q3. Are you? Male 48.8 Female

6 Q4. What is your age, please? or older 39.0 Q5. What is the highest level of education you have completed? High school graduate or less 11.8 Some college/trade school 27.4 Graduated college or more 60.8 Q6. Are you or is anyone in your household a member of a labor union, such as trade union, service employee union, public employee union, or teachers union? Q7. What do you consider to be your ethnic group? Yes 36.8 No 62.0 Don't know 1.3 White non-hispanic 83.1 Hispanic/latino 7.6 Black/African-American 3.8 Asian/other 5.4 6

7 Q8. What is your marital status? Married 65.7 Seaprated/divorced/ widowed 23.2 Never married 11.1 Q9. What is your household income? Less than $40, $40,001-80, $80, , $120,001 or more Q10. Which of the following best describes you politically? Very liberal 24.0 Somewhat liberal 50.4 Somewhat conservative 17.1 Very conservative 4.2 Don't know 4.3 7

8 Turning our attention to national politics, there are some candidates that have formed exploratory committees to run for the presidency. Q11. If the primary election were held today, for whom would you vote? The candidates are: Joe Biden, U.S. Senator from Delaware; Hillary Clinton, U.S. Senator from New York; Chris Dodd, U.S. Senator from Connecticut; John Edwards, former U.S. Senator from North Carolina; Mike Gravel, former U.S. Senator Virginia; Dennis Kucinich, Ohio Congressman; Barack Obama, U.S. Senator from Illinois; Bill Richardson, Governor from New Mexico; Tom Vilsak, Governor from Iowa Biden 3.9 Clinton 34.3 Dodd.8 Edwards 16.2 Gravel.3 Kucinich 4.2 Obama 23.6 Richardson 7.2 Vilsak.2 Don't know/undecided 9.2 8