550 Street. St)ile San ~ ~ranci:3c(), CA, 9410g-2~)2? (415) ) r:l\x (415) /13'1 c 1 541

Transcription

1 THE INDEPENDENT A1~[J ~~m~ PARTISAI'-J SURVEY OF [:JUBLIC OPINIOI'J ESTN3USHEO IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL l3y MERVIN FIEL D 550 Street. St)ile San ~ ~ranci:3c(), CA, 9410g-2~)2? (415) ) r:l\x (415) /13'1 c FOR PUBLICATION By SUBSCRIBERS ONLY. Release Release Date: Friday, March 3, 1995 DOLE LEADS IN GOP PRESIDENTIAL IMPORTANT: Contract for this PREFERENCES. service is subject to revocation if W~SON IS SECOND. publication or broadcast takes place POWELL A STRONG FACTOR AS GOP before release date or if contents are OR INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE. divulged to persons outside of CLOSE RESULTS WHEN CLINTON subscriber staff prior to release time. PAIRED AGAINST GOP CANDIDATE (ISSN ) LEADERS. Senator By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field Robert Dole starts out as the clear front-runner for this state's large and pivotal bloc of delegates to the 1996 Republican Presidential nominating convention. Dole receives 48% ofthe preference vote among rank-and-file GOP voters in a statewide survey just completed. Governor Pete Wilson who has been reported to be actively considering becoming a Presidential candidate - at least as a favorite son - is in second place with 22%. Texas Senator Phil Gramm is currently preferred by 11%. Trailing the field are former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander (3%), TV commentator Pat Buchanan (2%) Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Spector (1%), Indiana Senator Richard Lugar (1%) and California Congressman Robert Doman (1 %). About one in eight GOP voters (12%) express no preference at this time. the Effect of possible Powell candidacy Colin Powell, former Chairman ofthe Joints Chiefs of Staff, has been rumored to be considering a possible Presidential candidacy. When his name is included in the list of GOP possibilities, he receives 15% ofrepublican preferences, placing him in third place behind Dole and Wilson. Even though Dole loses many votes when Powell is on the list, Kansas Senator still remains in first place ahead ofwilson, 37% to 19%. The Field (California) IJ(;i! lias operateej continuously since 1947 as an Independent ami impartial PUbliC opinion news service The Pi]11 is one of the services provicjed ijy The held Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan organization devoted to the study of pubilc op;nicjll and behavior on socia! and po!i!lcal Issues The Field Institute is dedicated to encollraging trle Widest possible dissernlil3tion ot its sur\ley findings to the public and for the public benefit The Institute receives support from academic, government. media, and pr Ivate sources.

2 Inclination The Field Poll Friday, March 3, 1995 to vote measures Page 2 In this survey the sample ofrepublican voters was first asked whether they were inclined or not inclined to vote for each ofthe nine GOP Presidential possibilities. This question provides a measure ofthe degree to which a candidate is known and whether there is a general favorable inclination to support the candidate. Two out ofthree California Republicans (67%) say they are inclined to vote for Dole. For Wilson and Powell, majorities of54% and 53% respectively, say they would be inclined to vote for their candidacies. About one in three (35%) is inclined to vote for Gramm, although a fairly large proportion (38%) say they do not know enough about the Texas Senator. Just 18% say they are inclined to vote for Buchanan for President, but 66% say they are not inclined. Doman also encounters a high rate ofvote disinclination (17% inclined vs. 45% not inclined). Majorities ofcalifornia Republicans have no opinion ofthree other GOP hopefuls, fonner Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander, Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Spector and Indiana Senator Richard Lugar. Table 1 Inclination to support nine possible Republican Presidential candidates in 1996 California GOP primary (among registered GOP voters) Not No Inclined inclined opinion Robert Dole, Kansas Senator 67% Pete Wilson, California Governor 54% 40 6 Colin Powell, fonner Chainnan Joints Chiefs of Staff 53% Phil Gramm, Texas Senator 35% Patrick Buchanan, TV commentator 18% Robert Dornan, California Congressman 17% Lamar Alexander, fonner Tennessee Governor 9% Arlen Spector, Pennsylvania Senator 8% Richard Lugar, Indiana Senator 6% 30 64

3 The Field Poll Friday, March 3,1995 Page 3 Dole clear first choice leader When asked for their first choice among the candidates whom they are inclined to support, Dole is the clear leader whether Powell is included or not. Table 2 First choice preferences for President in March 1996 GOP California primary (among registered GOP voters) Without Powell listed With Powell listed Dole 48% 37% Wilson Powell 15 Gramm Alexander 3 3 Buchanan 2 2 Doman 1 1 Spector 1 1 Lugar * * Undecided * less than 1/2 of1% Next year's California's presidential primary election has been moved up from its traditional early June slot to March 26. Republican voters in this state, on a winner-takeall basis, will select the largest single bloc ofdelegates to the GOP convention - 9% ofthe total, or about 18% ofall delegates needed to win the nomination. about Possible November general election head-to-head match-ups Each ofthe Republican candidate possibilities was paired against President Bill Clinton in a series ofsimulated general election contests among a representative sample ofall voters. Clinton fares the worst when Powell is identified as his GOP opponent, trailing the General by a 48% to 40% margin. Dole also bests Clinton 50% to 44%. Clinton narrowly outpolls Wilson in a head-to-head match-up, 48% to 45%. The President runs ten points

4 ahead The Field Poll Friday, March 3, 1995 Page 4 ofgramm (48% to 38%). Clinton has large leads when paired against each ofthe other candidates. Table General Election two-way trial heats for President (among all registered voters) Dole Clinton 44 Undecided 7 Powell 48% Clinton 40 Undecided 12 Clinton 48% Wilson 45 Undecided 7 Clinton 48% Gramm 38 Undecided 14 Clinton 47% Alexander 26 Undecided 27 Clinton 54% Buchanan 32 Undecided 14 Clinton 52% Spector 27 Undecided 21 Clinton 46% Lugar 27 Undecided 27 Clinton 54% Dornan 26 Undecided 20 Results of possible three-way contests One variation regarding a possible Powell presidential candidacy is that he might choose not to seek the GOP nomination, but instead run as an independent candidate. Voters in this survey were also asked to choose among a series ofgeneral election possibilities, with Powell listed as an independent candidate. Results indicate that the General currently has appeal to a large proportion ofall voters. Powell's support is weakest as an independent when Dole is the Republican nominee. Table General Election three-way trial heats for President (among all registered voters) Dole 35% Clinton 34 Powell 23 Undecided 8 Clinton 34% Powell 30 Wilson 29 Undecided 7 Clinton 36% Powell 34 Gramm 21 Undecided 9 Powell 39% Clinton 36 Alexander 14 Undecided 11 Powell 39% Clinton 36 Buchanan 17 Undecided 8 Clinton 37% Powell 37 Spector 10 Undecided 16 Clinton 37% Powell 37 Lugar 12 Undecided 14 Clinton 39% Powell 37 Dornan 11 Undecided 13

5 The Field Poll Friday, March 3, 1995 Page 5 Wilson's candidacy In recent weeks there has been mounting speculation that Wilson will formally announce his candidacy for the Presidency. A number ofcalifornia GOP leaders have indicated that they are opposed to a Wilson entry into the Presidential contest. In the short term, they feel that the Governor would have to spend considerable time away from the state which would adversely affect his gubernatorial duties, and which could result in a Democrat, Lt. Governor Gray Davis, serving as Acting Governor during some ofwilson absences. Longer range concerns include the fact that ifwilson were to run and win the Presidency it would mean that Davis would formally assume the Governorship for the period. All voters in this survey were asked whether they approve or disapprove ofwilson running for the Republican Presidential nomination. Statewide, just one in three voters (33%) say they approve ofa Wilson candidacy, while 51% disapprove. However, among just rank-and-file Republican voters, many more would approve (51%) ofwilson running than would disapprove (34%). Mixed feelings about a Governor running for Presidency In previous instances, California voters have indicated mixed feelings about a sitting Governor running for President. The presumed benefit ofhaving a native son as President is offset by the fact that while running for the nation's highest office the Governor would take precious time away from his job in Sacramento. Another aspect affecting voter feelings is that those who already dislike the Governor are also not apt to be enthusiastic about the idea of him holding the Presidency. In addition, those voters who are strong supporters ofthe Governor find themselves in a special conflict. They are tom between the perceived benefits ofhaving him as Governor vs. the potential benefits of having him as President. There have been many recent cases wherein a sitting California Governor ran for his party's Presidential nomination, although none were successful during their gubernatorial tenure. Earl Warren in 1948 Earl Warren, who made a run for the Presidency while Governor, settled for the GOP vice-presidential spot behind New York Governor Thomas Dewey in the 1948 race. This was the year in which Democrat Harry Truman confounded pollsters and other forecasters by winning a very close election.

6 The Field Poll Friday, March 3, 1995 Page 6 Governor Pat Brown's 1960 Presidential run After first being elected Governor in 1958, Pat Brown was a favorite son Presidential candidate at the 1960 Democratic convention which eventually nominated Jack Kennedy. At that time, there were numerous negative press reports about Brown's candidacy and his performance at the convention, and it ended up hurting Brown's standing with the California public. Governor Ronald Reagan's as a candidate in 1968 In 1968, Ronald Reagan had served as Governor for less than two years and ran as a favorite son candidate at the Republican Presidential convention. Despite the high regard voters had for Reagan as Governor, results of a FieldPoll taken at that time showed that a majority ofrepublicans said they preferred Reagan to serve out his term in Sacramento rather than seek the Presidential nomination. After leaving Sacramento in 1975, Reagan ran again for President, unsuccessfully, in 1976, but won the Presidency in 1980 and was re-elected in Governor Jerry Brown's 1976 and 1980 candidacies. Jerry Brown, Pat Brown's son, was first elected Governor in In 1976, Brown ran for the Presidency in a mildly contested California Democratic primary and won the lion's share ofdemocratic votes and delegates. Brown was highly popular at the time and a FieldPoll found that a majority ofdemocrats supported his move to be a Presidential candidate. Jimmy Carter ofgeorgia had already established a big delegate lead in the race for the Democratic nomination and he not only became the nominee but won election that year. Voter sentiment was different the next time around for Brown in After winning re-election as Governor in 1978, Brown ran again for the Democratic Presidential nomination again in early However, Brown's popularity in the state was at a low point and a Field Poll at that time found that a majority ofvoters - both Democrats and Republicans - opposed his running for the Presidency. Richard Nixon's history Republican Richard Nixon was another Californian in modem times who ran for and won the Presidency, although he never served as Governor. Nixon was Vice-President in the Eisenhower administration in the 1950's, but lost in his first presidential bid in He ran a losing bid for California Governor in He was out ofoffice until 1968 when he successfully ran for President, winning a second term in ~

7 The Field Poll Friday, March 3, 1995 Page 7 Sample Details Information About tbe Survey The results in this report are based on a survey conducted February 23-March 1, 1995 among a representative statewide sample of725 registered voters, including a weighted sample of333 Democrats, 304 Republicans and 88 others. The survey was completed by telephone in either English or Spanish using random digit dialing methods. In order to cover a broad range ofissues and still minimize possible respondent fatigue, the overall sample was divided into two approximately equal sized subsamples of 344 and 381 voters each on the general election trial heat simulations. Estimates ofsampling error relate to sample size. According to statistical theory, 95% ofthe time results from the Republican voter sample would have a sampling error of +/- 5.8 percentage points, while findings from the general election simulations would have a sampling error of +/- 5.4 percentage points. There are many possible sources of error in any survey other than sampling variability. Different results could occur because ofdifferences in question wording, sequencing or through undetected errors or omission in sampling, interviewing or data processing. Every effort was made to minimize such errors. Questions Asked (ASKED OF REPUBLICANS ONLY) Next, I am going to read the names ofsome people who may run for President on the Republican Party ticket next year. As I read each name, please tell me whether you would be inclined or not inclined to vote for that person for next year's Republican Presidential nomination, or whether you don't know enough about that person to have an opinion. You may name as many or as few people as you want as being persons you would be inclined to vote for. Would you be inclined or not inclined to vote for to be the 1996 Republican Presidential nominee? (NAMES OF POSSIBLE CANDIDATES RANDOMIZED TO AVOID POSSIBLE SEQUENCE BIAS) Let's see, you told me that you would be inclined to vote for (NAMES RESPONDENT WOULD BE INCLINED TO VOTE FOR READ BACK). Ofthese persons, who would be your first choice? (F FIRST CHOICE GIVEN) Who would be your second choice (ASKED OF ALL REGISTERED VOTERS) Next I am going to read some possible general election match-ups for President in November For each pairing please tell me whom you would vote for ifthe election were being held today. What ifthe choices were... (NAME AND PARTY OF BOlli CANDIDATES READ) -- who would you prefer? (pairings WERE RANDOMIZED TO AVOID POSSIBLE SEQUENCE BIAS) Suppose that in the November 1996 Presidential election, there were three candidates running- (NAMES AND AFFILIATIONS OF ALL 3 CANDIDATES READ). Ifthe election were being held today and these were the candidates, who would you prefer? (PAIRINGS WERE RANDOMIZED TO AVOID POSSIBLE SEQUENCE BIAS)