Heading into the Conventions: A Tied Race July 8-12, 2016

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Griffin Woods
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1 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Thursday, July 14 th, :00 am EDT Heading into the Conventions: A Tied Race July 8-12, 2016 The race for President is all tied up. Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump by six points in June, but now they are dead even, each getting the support of 40% of registered voters nationwide. Each candidate does well with their traditional demographic groups, but independents have moved to Trump and he now leads by 12 points among them. In the wake of the investigation into Clinton s , 67% of voters say Clinton is not honest, up five points from last month and the highest during the 2016 campaign. Still, most don t think Trump is honest either. Trump has gained ground on some issues: He has pulled even with Clinton on handling terrorism and more now say he is better able to handle the economy (52%-41%). Clinton is seen as much stronger on race relations. Veepstakes: Most voters (69%) say a vice presidential candidate matters at least some in their vote for president, but just 30% say it matters a lot; another third says it doesn t really affect their presidential vote. The State of the Race Heading into the two parties conventions, the race for President is a dead heat, a change from last month when Hillary Clinton led by six points. 40% of registered voters now say they will back Clinton (a dip of three points), while 40% will vote for Trump (a bump up of three points.) 2016 Presidential Vote Choice Now 6/6016 5/2016 4/2016 Hillary Clinton 40% 43% 47% 50% Donald Trump Other (vol.) Won t vote (vol.) Depends/don t know Most registered voters say they have made up their minds about who to support: 90% of Trump voters and 88% of Clinton voters say their choice is set. About one in 10 of each s candidates supporter say their minds might change before the election. Is Your Mind Made Up? Clinton voters Trump voters Yes, mind made up 88% 90% No, might change before election

2 The race looks essentially the same in a three-way contest when Libertarian candidate Governor Gary Johnson is added to the mix. He gets 12% of the vote, but Clinton and Trump remain tied. Candidate Qualities and the Controversy Three-Way 2016 Presidential Vote Choice Now 6/2016 Hillary Clinton 36% 39% Donald Trump Gary Johnson Other (vol.) 2 4 Won t vote (vol.) 4 4 Depends/don t know While Clinton was not indicted for matters relating to her use of a private account and server for her work as Secretary of State, she was harshly criticized by the FBI director, and her standing on some key candidate qualities has taken a bit of a hit. 67% of voters now say Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, up from 62% last month and the highest percentage this election cycle. Only 28% view her as honest. Clinton s ratings on honesty were more positive soon after she announced her presidential bid in April of last year. Also, fewer now say she is prepared for the job of president than did so last month although half still say she is. Clinton: Candidate Qualities Now 6/2016 4/2015 Honesty and Trustworthy Yes 28% 33% 47% No Now 6/2016 Prepared for the job of President Yes 50% 59% No Although Clinton receives lower marks on these attributes compared to last month, views of Trump have not improved on these measures and remain mostly negative. 62% of voters don t think he s honest (compared to Clinton s 67%), and two-thirds continue to say Trump is not prepared for the job of president, compared to 48% who say that about Clinton. Trump: Candidate Qualities Now 6/2016 9/2015 Honesty and Trustworthy Yes 33% 32% 35% No Now 6/2016 Prepared for the job or President Yes 30% 30% No

3 On the matter specifically, most voters think Clinton did something wrong when she set up a personal address and server for work while she was Secretary of State, including 46% who think what she did was illegal, up slightly from 41% last month. There are partisan differences. Most Republicans (78%) and half of independents think what Clinton did was illegal. Among Democrats, 43% say she did nothing wrong, and another 35% said she did something improper but not illegal. Few Democrats think she broke the law. In Setting Up Personal /Server for Work, Clinton Did Total Reps Dems Inds 6/2016 Nothing wrong 24% 7% 43% 18% 26% Something improper Something illegal Voters are divided on whether the FBI investigation into the matter was fair. 48% express at least some confidence that the investigation was independent and impartial, while 47% have little or no confidence. Most Republicans and a slim majority of independents don t think the investigation was impartial, while most Democrats think it was. Confidence in Impartiality of FBI Investigation Total Reps Dems Inds A lot/some 48% 33% 69% 42% Not much/none Presidential Vote Choice: Past Conventions and the Demographics How does the state of the 2016 race compare to similar points in recent elections? CBS News polling showed tight races heading into both the 2012 and 2008 conventions. Barack Obama led Mitt Romney by just 1 point four years ago, and before both conventions in 2008, Obama had a threepoint edge over John McCain. (It should be noted that the 2008 and 2012 polls were conducted in August, as the conventions were held later in the year.) 2016 Race vs. Past Conventions 2016 Clinton 40% Trump 40% 2012 Obama 46% Romney 45% 2008 Obama 45% McCain 42% While the 2016 race is now neck and neck, each candidate continues to perform well with their party s key voters. Clinton enjoys strong support from women, African Americans, and younger voters, while Donald Trump gets the support of men, white voters (particularly those without a college degree), and white evangelicals. Each candidate is also winning the support of eight in ten of their party s voters. Independents have changed since the last poll. Clinton has lost some ground with independent voters and they have now swung Trump s way. Independents were virtually split in last month s poll, but Trump now leads Clinton by 12 points among them. 3

4 2016 Presidential Vote Choice: Independents Now 6/2016 Clinton 28% 35% Trump Depends/don t know Trump widened his lead among white voters from six points last month to 13 now, and while Clinton led with white women last month (a group Romney won in 2012), the candidates are now even among them Presidential Vote Choice: Demographics Clinton Trump Total 40% 40 Men 35% 48 Women 45% 32 White voters 35% 48 Black voters 72% 7 White men 29% 55 White women 40% 40 White evangelicals 14% 70 Republicans 7% 79 Democrats 81% 7 Independents 28% 40 Age <45 45% 30 Age % 46 White/no college deg 28% 53 White/coll degree 47% 37 Most of the interviews for this poll were conducted before Clinton s former rival, Bernie Sanders, endorsed her for President. 67% of Sanders supporters in the primaries say they will vote for Clinton in November, while just 9% say they will cast their vote for Trump not too different from a month ago. In July 2008, after an often contentious primary contest, 61% of Clinton backers said they would vote for her primary opponent, Barack Obama, in the general election, while 20% said they would support McCain Presidential Vote Choice: Sanders Supporters Now 6/2016 Clinton 67% 63% Trump 9 8 Other (vol.) 9 17 Won t vote (vol.) 7 9 Depends/don t know

5 The Candidates on the Issues Trump has improved his standing with voters on handling some important issues. The candidates were tied on handing the economy and jobs in June, but Trump has opened up an 11-point lead over Clinton on that issue now, and he has pulled even with her on handling terrorism and national security. Last month, Clinton had an 8-point advantage over Trump on illegal immigration, but that has been cut to 3 points. The candidates are about even on the issue of trade, while Clinton has a 31-point advantage on handling race relations. Which Candidate Would do a Better Job Handling? --- Now -- 6/2016 Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Illegal immigration 45% 48 43% 51 Economy and jobs 52% 41 47% 47 Terrorism/nat l security 46% 46 43% 50 Trade 47% 46 n/a n/a Race relations 29% 60 n/a n/a Overall views of the presumptive nominees remain negative. The major party candidates are wellknown to voters, and more than half have an unfavorable opinion of both Clinton (54%) and Trump (54%). While there s little difference between the two, this is the first time during the campaign that Clinton s favorable rating (28%) is lower than Trump s (30%). When compared to past likely nominees heading into their conventions, Trump and Clinton s unfavorable ratings are the highest in CBS News polling going back to 1984, when the question was first asked. Views of the 2016 Candidates Trump Clinton Now 6/2016 5/2016 Now 6/2016 5/2016 Favorable 30% 26% 26% 28% 33% 31% Unfavorable Undecided/don t know enough The Veep Choice: How Important Is It? As the conventions draw near, there is increased speculation about who the candidates will choose as their running mates. Most voters say a vice presidential candidate matters at least some in their vote for president, but just 30% say it matters a lot; another third says it doesn t really affect their presidential vote. How Much Does the Vice Presidential Candidate Matter in Your Vote for President? Now 2012 A lot 30% 26% Some No effect

6 There s little difference between Trump and Clinton supporters on this question. How Much Does the Vice Presidential Candidate Matter in Your Vote for President? Clinton voters Trump voters A lot 29% 27% Some No effect Voters Not Looking Forward to the Rest of the Campaign The campaigns are expected to kick into high gear after their conventions and voters are not especially excited about that. Six in 10 voters are not looking forward to the next few months of the presidential campaign. Looking Forward to Presidential Campaign? Total Clinton voters Trump voters Yes 37% 40% 41% No In fact few voters are very enthusiastic about voting in the 2016 presidential election, and they are less enthusiastic now than they were at the beginning of the year. 24% of voters say they are not at all enthusiastic, up from 15% in January before the primary season began. Both Clinton and Trump supporters are similarly enthusiastic, or unenthusiastic, about the election. Enthusiasm about the 2016 Presidential Election Now 1/2016 Very enthusiastic 27% 33% Somewhat enthusiastic Not too enthusiastic Not at all enthusiastic This poll was conducted by telephone July 8-12, 2016 among a random sample of 1,600 adults nationwide, including 1,358 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News and The New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters is three points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. 6

7 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL Heading into the Conventions: A Tied Race July 8-12, 2016 Q1. How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far? *** REGISTERED VOTERS *** Total Rep Dem Ind Jun16b % % % % % A lot Some Not much No attention so far Don't know/no answer * * Q2. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 election for President this November -- would you say you will definitely vote, probably vote, probably not vote, or definitely not vote in the election for President? Definitely vote Probably vote Probably not vote Definitely not vote Don't know/no answer 1 1 * 2 2 Q3. If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, would you vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Other (Vol.) Won't vote (Vol.) Depends (Vol.) Don't know/no answer Q4. If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, and Gary Johnson, the Libertarian would you vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump or Gary Johnson? Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Other (Vol.) Won't vote (Vol.) Depends (Vol.) Don't know/no answer

8 Q5. You told us you support Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. Is your mind made up or do you think you might change your mind before the election? *** CLINTON VOTERS *** Jun16b % % Mind made up Might change 11 9 Don't know/no answer 1 1 Q6. You told us you support Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. Is your mind made up or do you think you might change your mind before the election? *** TRUMP VOTERS *** Jun16b Mind made up Might change Don't know/no answer 1 2 Q7. Thinking about the 2016 presidential election, overall, would you say you are very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all about voting? *** REGISTERED VOTERS *** Total Rep Dem Ind Jun16b % % % % % Very enthusiastic Somewhat enthusiastic Not too enthusiastic Not enthusiastic at all Don't know/no answer Q8. How important is the vice presidential candidate when you decide how to vote in a presidential election? Does it matter a lot to you, or does it matter somewhat, or doesn't it really affect your vote? Jul12a Matters a lot Somewhat Doesn't affect vote Don't know/no answer Q9. Are you looking forward to the next few months of the presidential campaign, or not? Yes No Don't know/no answer

9 Q10. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Donald Trump yet to have an opinion? *** REGISTERED VOTERS *** Total Rep Dem Ind Jun16b % % % % % Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Don't know/no answer 1 1 * 3 2 Q11. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Hillary Clinton yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Don't know/no answer Q23. Do you think Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy, or not? Honest and trustworthy Not honest and trustworthy Don't know/no answer Q24. From what you know so far, do you think Hillary Clinton is prepared for the job of President, or not? Is prepared Is not prepared Don't know/no answer 2 * Q25. Do you think Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy, or not? Honest and trustworthy Not honest and trustworthy Don't know/no answer Q26. From what you know so far, do you think Donald Trump is prepared for the job of President, or not? Is prepared Is not prepared Don't know/no answer

10 Q27. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job handling each of the following issues Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? Which candidate would do a better job handling (INSERT ITEM)? a. The economy and jobs *** REGISTERED VOTERS *** Total Rep Dem Ind Jun16b % % % % % Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Both (Vol.) * Neither (Vol.) Don't know/no answer b. Trade with other countries Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Both (Vol.) * Neither (Vol.) Don't know/no answer c. Terrorism and national security Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Both (Vol.) * * * 1 1 Neither (Vol.) Don't know/no answer d. Illegal immigration Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Both (Vol.) * * - * * Neither (Vol.) Don't know/no answer e. Race relations Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Both (Vol.) * 1 * * Neither (Vol.) Don't know/no answer

11 Q49. Do you think Hillary Clinton did anything wrong when she set up a personal address and server for work while she was Secretary of State, or not? IF YES, ASK: Do you think Hillary Clinton s activities regarding her personal address and server were improper but not illegal, or do you think they were illegal? *** REGISTERED VOTERS *** Total Rep Dem Ind Jun16b % % % % % No, nothing wrong Yes, improper, but not illegal Yes, illegal Don't know/no answer Q50. As you may know, the FBI did not recommend criminal charges in Hillary Clinton s use of a personal address and server for work while she was Secretary of State. How much confidence do you have that the FBI investigation was independent and impartial a lot, some, not much or none at all? A lot Some Not much None at all Don't know/no answer Unweighted Total Respondents 1,600 Weighted Total Registered Voters 1,358 1,250 Republican Registered Voters Democratic Registered Voters Independent Registered Voters

Five Days to Go: The Race Tightens October 28-November 1, 2016

Five Days to Go: The Race Tightens October 28-November 1, 2016 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Thursday November 3, 2016 7:00 AM EDT As the race for president pulls into the home stretch, Hillary