IMMEDIATE RELEASE DECEMBER 22, 2014

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1 Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey Fax: IMMEDIATE RELEASE DECEMBER 22, 2014 EDITOR S NOTE: ATTENTION POLITICAL, ASSIGNMENT EDITORS, Director David Redlawsk may be contacted at (cell), (office), or redlawsk@rutgers.edu. Poll manager Ashley Koning may be contacted at or akoning@rutgers.edu. Questions and tables are available at: Visit our blog at for additional commentary. Follow the on Facebook at and CLINTON MAINTAINS DOUBLE-DIGIT LEAD OVER CHRISTIE IN NEW JERSEY Large Majority Expects Christie to Hit the Presidential Campaign Trail NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. In a hypothetical 2016 head-to-head matchup between Gov. Chris Christie and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, New Jersey voters continue to give Clinton a double-digit lead, according to the latest. Forty-nine percent of registered voters say they would support Clinton over Christie, while 39 percent back Christie. The gap between the two has remained around 10 points through much of the past year. Clinton is also more positively received by New Jersey voters, with a 56 percent favorability rating, compared to Christie s 44 percent. While Clinton s favorability rating is down from 65 percent at the beginning of 2014, Christie s dropped even more after January s Bridgegate revelations. Both ratings, however, have remained relatively stable since their declines early in the year. It probably makes sense that there is little movement in a hypothetical matchup two years before the actual election, noted David Redlawsk, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling and professor of political science at Rutgers University. Still, Christie starts down double-digits in his home state if both he and Clinton are the nominees. Sixty-three percent of New Jersey voters expect Christie to hit the 2016 campaign trail, up six points since last asked in an August. Voters also think Christie s decision-making ahead of a potential presidential campaign has not been New Jersey-focused. Instead, 55 percent says the governor s choices in signing or vetoing bills have been more about a potential presidential run, rather than what s good for the state. In addition, 41 percent think Christie s travel schedule outside of the state for fundraising and campaigning has hurt his ability to govern. But 52 percent say his travels have made no difference to his ability to govern. At this point, about seven in ten Republicans and Democrats name a preference for their party s nomination, little changed throughout Republicans and those leaning GOP continue to stick by 1

2 2 Christie as their top choice, while Democrats (along with leaners) overwhelmingly still prefer Clinton. Christie is tops for 32 percent of Garden State Republicans and GOP leaners, down nine points since August. Another nine percent name Christie as their second choice. Former 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney follows with 10 percent naming him as first choice and eight percent listing him second. In contrast, 54 percent of Democrats and those leaning Democrat choose Clinton as their candidate, down five points from August. For another eight percent, she is the second choice. No other Democrat breaks 10 percent in first choice mentions; Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) follows as first choice for six percent and second choice for five percent. Results are from a statewide poll of 750 adults, contacted by live callers on both landlines and cell phones from Dec. 3-10, The subsample of 646 registered voters reported on here has a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Clinton continues lead over Christie among most groups Clinton s 2016 matchup margin over Christie is half of what it was in January 2014, when she led 55 percent to 34 percent. That lead dropped to 51 percent 41 percent in March, and is little changed since. While 90 percent of Democrats and 86 percent of Republicans side with their potential party nominees, independents split 40 percent Christie to 38 percent Clinton. A huge gender gap might become evident if Clinton is the Democratic nominee. Today she wins among women by 24 points (58 percent to 34 percent), but loses among men by a 39 percent to 44 percent margin. She also loses among white voters, but scores a solid lead with nonwhite voters. Clinton s hypothetical win over Christie is fueled by her 12-point favorability advantage; 78 percent of those favorable towards her say they would also vote for her. She remains in positive territory with key constituencies. Eighty-six percent of voters from Clinton s own party hold a favorable impression of her, as do 47 percent of independents. Only 26 percent of Republicans feel the same. Sixty-five percent of women are favorable toward her, compared to 45 percent of men. She is viewed more favorably than unfavorably among other key demographic groups, including liberals, moderates, both white and nonwhite voters, and voters of all ages, incomes, education levels, and regions. Most think Christie will run; Partisanship fuels perceptions of presumed preparations There is no question in a large majority of New Jersey voters minds that Christie will throw his hat in the 2016 ring more than half of every demographic group tested believes he will. But Christie s ability to balance his governorship at home with the run-up to 2016 is a source of disagreement. A bare majority 54 percent of Christie supporters believe the governor continues to do what s best for the state with his recent decisions to sign or veto bills, down 9 points since August. A

3 3 notable 31 percent of this group thinks Christie s decisions are mostly about an expected run for president. Voters unfavorable toward Christie overwhelmingly (81 percent) say his actions have been about setting up a potential presidential bid, while only 5 percent say he s doing what s best for the state. Partisans take opposite sides on the question as well: 57 percent of Republicans say the GOP governor is doing what s best for New Jersey, versus the 70 percent of Democrats who think his decisions are primarily about a presidential run. Independents lean toward Democrats here; 57 percent seeing his actions as related to a future presidential campaign and just 28 percent believe the opposite. Opinions are similarly divided over how Christie s travel schedule affects his ability to govern: 74 percent of Republicans say his frequent trips have no effect, but 42 percent of independents and 52 percent of Democrats say it has hurt his ability to govern effectively. Those who view the governor favorably (at 74 percent) are much more likely to say there has been no effect, while Christie s detractors (62 percent) think his travels have impacted his ability to govern New Jersey. Despite numerous possibilities, Christie, Clinton remain overwhelming partisan favorites Christie and Clinton continue to dominate their respective New Jersey party bases as presidential candidates for Among Republicans, Romney comes in a distant second, with 10 percent naming him their first choice (and 8 percent second choice). Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who has announced an exploration of a presidential run, follows with six percent of first choice votes, but leads as second choice GOPer with 14 percent. Sens. Rand Paul (R-KY) at four percent first choice (six percent second choice), and Marco Rubio (R-FL) at 4 percent first choice (five percent second choice), round out the list of GOP candidates whose combined first and second choice support exceeds five percent. Another nine candidates named by respondents do not breach this level of support. Among Republican voters who name Christie as their first choice, more than six in ten cannot name a second choice. For the few who do, Bush is their first fallback choice, while Romney follows. We continue to see a lot of shifting among the bottom rung candidates, given how few name them, as well as big rises for Romney and Jeb Bush, but no one comes very close to Christie among New Jersey Republican voters, noted Redlawsk. Democratic voters name fewer potential candidates. Besides Clinton, only Warren is mentioned as a first choice with any frequency, though she trails by a huge margin, at six percent first choice voters and five percent second choice. Vice President Joe Biden has fallen out of what little favor he had in New Jersey. A distant second to Clinton in August, Biden now gets just 1 percent of mentions as a first choice and another 5 percent as second pick. Three-quarters of Clinton supporters do not name a second choice for president; 6 percent say Biden and another 6 percent say Warren is their second choice. ### QUESTIONS AND TABLES BEGIN ON THE FOLLOWING PAGE

4 Questions and Tables The questions in the release of December 22, 2014 are listed below. Column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Respondents are NJ unless otherwise indicated; percentages are of weighted results. Q. First, I'd like to ask about some people and groups. Please tell me if your general impression of each one is favorable or unfavorable, or if you do not have an opinion. If you do not know the name, just say so. [RANDOMIZE ORDER] FMR. SEC. OF GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE STATE HILLARY CLINTON Favorable 44% 56% Unfavorable 46% 32% No opn/don t know person 11% 13% Unwgt N= GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE FMR. SEC. OF STATE HILLARY CLINTON Favorable 21% 47% 74% 25% 43% 64% 47% 40% 38% 46% 45% 45% 50% 30% Unfavorable 69% 41% 17% 70% 46% 24% 43% 48% 46% 45% 45% 48% 43% 52% DK/No Opn 10% 12% 9% 5% 11% 12% 10% 11% 17% 9% 9% 7% 8% 18% Unwt N= Favorable 86% 47% 26% 83% 57% 28% 45% 65% 56% 61% 55% 52% 49% 71% Unfavorable 5% 38% 60% 8% 28% 64% 42% 23% 28% 27% 32% 38% 39% 17% DK/No Opn 8% 14% 14% 9% 15% 8% 12% 13% 16% 12% 12% 10% 13% 13% Unwt N= [ADDITIONAL APPROVAL QUESTIONS WERE ASKED AT THIS POINT] 4

5 [REPUBLICANS AND GOP-LEANING REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY] Q. The 2016 presidential election is far away, but thinking ahead to the Republican primary for president, who would be your first choice for the Republican candidate? Just tell me a name. [Includes only potential candidates named by at least one respondent] Chris Christie 32% Rudy Giuliani 1% Mitt Romney 10% Rick Perry 1% Jeb Bush 6% Ron Paul 1% Rand Paul 4% Scott Walker 1% Marco Rubio 4% Ted Cruz 3% Other 3% Ben Carson 2% Don t know 31% Bobby Jindal 2% Unwgt N= 224 Q. And who would be your second choice for the 2016 Republican candidate? Just tell me a name if you have a second choice. [Includes only potential candidates named by at least one respondent] Jeb Bush 14% Scott Walker 1% Chris Christie 9% Rudy Giuliani 1% Mitt Romney 8% Mike Bloomberg 1% Rand Paul 6% Bobby Jindal 1% Marco Rubio 5% Rick Perry 2% Other 8% Ted Cruz 2% Don t know 42% Paul Ryan 1% Unwgt N= 154 Christie as First Choice Christie as First Choice Jeb Bush 17% Rick Perry 1% Mitt Romney 11% Ben Carson 1% Marco Rubio 2% Ted Cruz 2% Other 4% Rand Paul 1% Don t know 63% Unwgt N= 66* * Small N; Interpret with care 5

6 [DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC-LEANING REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY] Q. The 2016 presidential election is far away, but thinking ahead to the Democratic primary for president, who would be your first choice for the Democratic candidate? Just tell me the name. [Includes only potential candidates named by at least one respondent] Hillary Clinton 54% Elizabeth Warren 6% Cory Booker 2% Joe Biden 1% Martin O'Malley 1% Other 3% Don't know 34% Unwgt N= 280 Q. And who would be your second choice for the 2016 Democratic candidate? Just tell me the name if you have a second choice. [Includes only potential candidates named by at least one respondent] Hillary Clinton 8% Elizabeth Warren 5% Joe Biden 5% Cory Booker 2% Andrew Cuomo 1% Martin O'Malley 1% Other 9% Don't know 68% Unwgt N= 189 Clinton as First Choice Elizabeth Warren 6% Joe Biden 6% Cory Booker 3% Andrew Cuomo 2% Martin O'Malley 2% Other 7% Don't know 75% Unwgt N= 153 6

7 [REMAINING QUESTIONS ASKED OF ALL REGISTERED VOTERS] Q. There is a lot of talk about Governor Christie running for president. Do you think he will run in 2016, or not? Yes 63% No 25% Don't know 12% Unwgt N= 644 Q. If the election for president were today, and the candidates were [ROTATE ORDER: Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Hillary Clinton], for whom would you vote? Christie Favorability Clinton Favorability Fav Unfav Fav Unfav Clinton 49% 20% 78% 78% 6% Christie 39% 73% 7% 16% 76% Someone else (vol) 7% 2% 11% 1% 15% Don't know 5% 5% 4% 6% 3% Unwgt N= Yes 65% 61% 65% 62% 64% 63% 65% 61% 61% 68% 61% 63% 65% 57% No 27% 25% 22% 30% 25% 23% 24% 27% 26% 20% 27% 27% 24% 29% Don't know 8% 14% 13% 8% 11% 14% 11% 12% 13% 12% 12% 10% 11% 14% Unwt N= Clinton 90% 38% 9% 85% 49% 19% 39% 58% 48% 50% 52% 47% 41% 69% Christie 8% 40% 86% 9% 39% 66% 44% 34% 36% 39% 38% 42% 48% 19% Someone else (vol) 1% 12% 5% 3% 7% 11% 10% 4% 7% 7% 6% 7% 8% 5% Don't know 2% 10% 1% 3% 5% 5% 7% 4% 9% 5% 4% 4% 4% 7% Unwt N=

8 Q. In general, are the decisions Christie is making lately about various issues, including whether to sign or veto bills, more about [ROTATE ORDER: what s best for NJ or more about his potential run for president]? Christie Favorability Fav Unfav Best for New Jersey 29% 54% 5% Potential run for president 55% 31% 81% Don't know 16% 15% 14% Unwgt N= Q. Governor Christie has frequently travelled outside of New Jersey to fundraise and campaign as part of his duties as the Chairman of the Republican Governor s Association. Do you think the governor s travel schedule has hurt his ability to be an effective governor in New Jersey, or has it not affected his ability to govern? Christie Favorability Fav Unfav Hurts his ability 41% 20% 62% Does not have an effect 52% 74% 32% Helps ability to govern (vol) 1% 2% 0% Don't know 5% 4% 6% Unwgt N= Best for NJ 15% 28% 57% 13% 29% 48% 29% 30% 26% 27% 35% 27% 33% 22% Potential run 70% 57% 27% 74% 56% 38% 57% 54% 58% 55% 49% 59% 53% 59% Don't know 15% 15% 16% 13% 15% 14% 15% 16% 16% 18% 15% 14% 14% 19% Unwt N= Hurts 52% 42% 21% 54% 41% 29% 44% 39% 45% 42% 43% 35% 39% 47% No effect 42% 50% 74% 39% 54% 65% 51% 54% 44% 54% 51% 61% 55% 45% Helps 1% 1% 2% 2% 0% 2% 1% 1% 3% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% Don't know 5% 7% 2% 5% 5% 4% 5% 6% 9% 4% 5% 4% 5% 7% Unwt N=

9 December 3 10, 2014 The was conducted by telephone using live callers December 3-10, 2014 with a scientifically selected random sample of 750 New Jersey adults including 646 registered voters. This telephone poll included 423 landline and 327 cell phone adults, all acquired through random digit dialing. Distribution of household phone use in this sample is: Cell Only: 22% Dual Use, Reached on Cell: 22% Dual Use, Reached on LL: 50% Landline Only: 6% Data for registered voters (N=646) and all adults (N=750) were weighted separately to the demographics of registered voters and adults in New Jersey, respectively. Both weights account for the probability of being selected within the sample frame and the probability of being sampled within a household, based on the number of individuals living in the household and the phone composition (cell, landline) of the household. The samples were weighted to several demographic variables reflecting the population parameters of the state of New Jersey: gender, race, age, and Hispanic ethnicity. The final weight, which combined all of the parameters mentioned, was trimmed at the 5th and 95th percentile so as to not accord too much weight to any one case or subset of cases. All results are reported with these weighted data. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for the 750 adults is +/-3.6 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The adult sample weighting design effect is 1.25, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 4.0 percentage points for the adult sample. The simple sampling error for 646 registered voters is +/-3.9 percentage points. The weighting design effect for the registered voter sample is 1.22, making the adjusted margin of error +/-4.3 percentage points for the registered voter sample. Thus if 50 percent of New Jersey registered voters in this sample favor a particular position, we would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 45.7 and 54.3 percent (50 +/-4.3) if all New Jersey registered voters had been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects. This was fielded in house by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. The questionnaire was developed and all data analyses were completed in house. The is paid for and sponsored by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University, a non-partisan academic center for the study of politics and the political process. Weighted Sample Characteristics 646 New Jersey 34% Democrat 46% Male 16% % White 46% Independent/Other 54% Female 28% % Black 20% Republican 38% % Hispanic 24% % Asian/Other/Multi 9