RUTGERS CONTACT: CLIFF ZUKIN or

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1 FOR RELEASE;: TUESDAY OCTOBER 28, 1980 RUTGERS CONTACT: CLIFF ZUKIN or THE STATE UNIVERSITY JAN ICE BALLOU OF NEW JERSEY THE EAGLETON NSTITUTE OF POLITICS WOOD LAWNaNEILSON CAMPUS.NEW BRUNSWCK.NEW JERSEY / RELEASE: 42 1 REAGAN HOLDS NARROW LEAD GOING INTO TONIGHT S DEBATE Ronald Reagan takes a narrow lead over Jimmy Carter into tonight s Presidential debate, while support for independent candidate John Anderson has declined dramatically in recent weeks, according to the latest Eagleton survey. The Rutgers based poll interviewed a random sample of 907 New Jerseyans between October 20 and 23. Among the 587 persons most likely to vote in next week s election Reagan leads Carter by 40 to 36 percent, with Anderson receiving 10 percent and 14 percent undecided. Reagan held a similar lead of 5 points among likely voters inter viewed by Eagleton during the last half of September, leading Carter by 36 to 31 per cent with Anderson at.21 percent. Among the 766 registered voters the candidates run evenly, with Carter getting 37 percent, Reagan 36 percent, and Anderson 10 percent. Registered voters interviewed in September gave Reagan a 1 point lead. Cliff Zukin, Director of the Poll, said the 2 percentage point difference between September and October fell into the survey s margin of error and was not significant. Zukin noted, The difference between the registered and likely voter figures indicates that voter turnout will be a key to the candidate s fortunes in New Jersey. A large turnout can help Carter close the gap on Reagan. The Poll indicates that many New Jerseyans have been making up their minds about who to support in recent weeks. While the margin between Reagan and Carter has remained the same, support for both candidates is up from September, while half of John Anderson s supporters have left him. Two in three registered voters now say they are firm in their support of one of the candidates, up from 56 percent in September. However, with more Attention Radio Stations: Audio is available after 7:00 P.M., 10/27/80, from (201) (Rutgers Feature Phone).

2 EP42 1 Page 2 20 percent saying they might change their mind before election day and an additional 14 percent undecided, tonight s debate looms as a. crittcal event in the 1980 campaign, as does the possible release of the American hostages held in Iran. New Jersey voters appear to be slightly more concerned with domestic than foreign issues. The survey, conducted before the government s latest economic report putting inflation at 12.7%, found 87 percent saying they are very concerned with the shape of the nation s economy. About 4 in 5 also say they are very concerned about the nation s energy problems. About 7 in 10 are deeply concerned over the possibility of war in the next few years; the same number are concerned over government spending and taxes. Fewer 59 percent say they are very concerned about keeping up with the Soviet Union in military strength. Carter supporters tend to be more concerned about the possibility of war and energy problems, while Reagan supporters express more concern with the economy, government spending and taxes, and with the issue of military strength. The Rutgers survey also finds none of the candidates to be commanding enthusiastiec support among New Jersey s registered voters. Opinions about Governor Reagan are mixed with 44 percent saying their general impression of him is favorable, while 45 percent say they have an unfavorable view of him. able ones by a margin of 53 to 40 percent. Unfavorable views of Carter outnumber favor Representative Anderson remains not well known to about one third, with 31 percent offering no opinion of him. Another third 34 percent say their general view of Anderson is favorable; the remaining third offer an unfavorable opinion of the independent candidate. Reagan is better regarded among members of his own party than Carter is among Democrats. Reagan is also viewed more favorably by independents. Favorable impressions of Reagan outnumbered unfavorable ones among Republicans by 81 to 14 percent. Democrats view Carter more favorably than unfavorably by a smaller margin of 64 to 27 percent. Independents are evenly divided in their impressions of Reagan 46 percent favorable to 45 percent unfavorable and are largely negative toward Carter with 66 percent evaluatinl him negatively and 29 percent positively. more

3 Reagan has made some gains among blue collar workers in the state, but these have been offset by losses among self employed Garden State workers. Among blue collar workers Reagan is up 7 points from September to October while Carter is up I point and Anderson down 4 points during that same ( period. The bottom dropped out of Anderson s support among self employed persons going from 22 to 3 percent. Carter appears to have been the principal beneficiary of this, moving from 19 to 36 percent among this group. Reagan dropped from 49 to 43 percent. more EP42 1 Page 3 Zukin commented, The closeness of the race, despite Reagan s more favorable image indicates there are a number of New Jerseyans who prefer him but have reser vations over the risk of war with Reagan as President a central theme of the Carter campaign. However, Reagan may have an easier task in tonight s debate he needs to reassure people who would like to support him, while Carter needs to convert people who generally have an unfavorable opinion of him. If Reagan is unable to reduce voters fears we might see late voters returning to the incumbent. There is a feeling among the general public that while Carter has not been a good President, he has at least kept us out of war. While not fully reflected in the percentages supporting Reagan and Carter, the Poll figures show voters making up their minds most recently favoring the incumbent. Among those saying they had decided who to vote for in the last two weeks, Carter led Reagan by 48 to 32 percent. Those who had decided in the last month or two favored by 45 to 41 percent over Reagan. Reagan led among those who had decided earlier than this by a margin of 48 to 42 percent. Among those having decided on a candidate, 18 percent say they made up their minds in the last week or two, 33 percent in the last month or two and 49 percent decided more than two months ago. The Eagleton survey also revealed a number of trends in support for the candidates from September to October: Carter has picked up some support among members of his own party, now receiving 67 percent of Democratic votes compared to 60 percent in September. Reagan was supported by about three auarters of Republicans in both surveys. The drop in John Anderson s support among independents has been split evenly between Carter and Reagan ndependents now divide 36 for Reagan, 26 for Carter, 16 percent for Anderson. Tn September 34 percent of independents favored Anderson, 30 percent Reagan and 19 percent Carter. ( Carter

4 EP42 1 Page 4 Eighty two percent of Reagan voters now say they are firm in their support up from 71 percent in September. Three quarters of Carter supporters now say they are firm up less from the 70 percent who said they were firm in September. The data presented in this release come from interviews conducted by telephone with a random sample of 907 New Jerseyans 18 years and older. Of this sample, 766 said they were registered to vote in the state. Only the responses of registered voters are reported in this release. In theory one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results based on the sample differ by no more than 4 percentage points in either direction from what would have been obtained had all registered voters in the state been inter viewed. The error for smaller sub groups is larger, depending on the number of re spondents in the sub group. The theoretical margin of error does not take into account additional error resulting from various practical difficulties involved in taking any survey of public opinion Copyright, The Eagleton Institute, 1980 C

5 26 UNION MEMBER IN HOUSEHOLD Yes % (285) No % (453) REGION North % (399) Central % (148) South % (195) THE STATE UNIVERSITY RUTGERS OF NEW JERSEY THE EAGLETON INSTITUTE OF POLITICS WOOD LAWN.NE LSON CAMPUS.NEW SRUNSWICK.NEW JERSEY / BACKGROUND MEMO- RELEASE 42-1, TUESDAY, OCTOBER The questions and figures referred to in this release follow. The numbers in parenthesis are the weighted number of respondents answering each question. The figures presented in this release are based on those saying they are registered to vote in New Jersey except where otherwise noted. If the election for President was held today who would you vote for: Jimmy Carter, the Democrat; Ronald Reagan, the Republican; or John Anderson, running as an Independent? Undecided! Will Carter Reagan Anderson Other Not Vote Total j LIKELY VOTERS October, % (587) September, % (654) REGISTERED VOTERS October, 1q % (766) September, % (967) May, % (834) % (263) Independents % (303) Republicans % (16]) EDUCATION Less than U.S % (193) High School Grad % (280) More than U.S % (267) IDEOLOGY Liberal % (151) Moderate ] % (358) Conservative % (181) OCCUPATION Blue Collar % (171) White Collar % (300) Self Employed % ( 80) Retired % (132) RACE White % (658) - Non White % ( 81) C Democrats

6 3 2 IS SUE CONCERN 4 EP Undecided! Will Carter Reagan Anderson Other Not Vote Total Economy % (628) War % (520) - Might 4Responses to the following question: When did you make up your mind about who you would vote for in the last few days, in the last couple of weeks, in the last month or two, or before this? Spending/Taxes % (512) Energy % (569) Military Pairity % (429) TIME OF VOTE DECISION Last Week or Two % (109) --Last Month or Two % (195) Earlier % (29.1) Would you say you are voting more for (respondent s choice of Carter/Reagan/Anderson), or more against the others? Both for Don t For Against & Against Know Total (n) Carter Supporters % (271) Reagan Supporters % (265) Anderson Supporters % C 73) Are you very firm about your choice, or do you think you might change your mind before election day? C. Firm Change Undecided Total (n) TOTAL REGISTERED % (724) Carter Supporters % (271) Reagan Supporters % (265) Anderson Supporters % C 73) This group of 587 (60 percent of the total sample) are those most likely to vote in the election. Likely voters were determined by responses to questions concerning interest, perceived importance of the election out come, degree of caring about who wins, registration status, reported voting intention and questions about past voting behavior. 9 People saying they would not vote were not asked these questions. 3lncludes saying they were very concerned about the issue. Full question wording given elsewhere.

7 C EP42 1 Numbers of respondents are. as eollows.: Total Registere4 (721); Carter Supporters T m going to read you a quick list of issues and would like you to tell me how concerned you are about each. For each one simply say if you are very, somewhat or not very concerned. VERY SOMEWHAT NOT VERY DON T KNOW TOTAL THE SHAPE OF THE ECONOMY Total Registered* % Carter Supporters % Reagan Supporters % Anderson Supporters % THE POSSIBILITY OF WAR IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS Total Registered % Carter Supporters % Reagan Supporters % Anderson Supporters % REDUCING GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND TAXES Total Registered % Carter Supporters % Reagan Supporters % Anderson Supporters % THE NATION?S ENERGY PROflLS Carter Supporters % ( Total Registered % Reagan Supporters % Anderson Supporters % KEEPING UP WITH THE SOVIET UNION IN MILITARY STRENGTH Total Registered % Carter Supporters % Reagan Supporters % Anderson Supporters % (271); Reagan Supporters (26:5); Anderson Supporters (73). Registered voters saying they would not vote have been omitted from this tables

8 EP In general, is your overailimpression of (candidate s name) favorable or unfavorable, or dont you really have an opinion about him? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that very (aorable/unfavorable) or only somewhat (favorable/unfavorable)? FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NO OPINION JOHN ANDERSON Total Registered* % Carter Supporters % Reagan Supporters % Anderson Supporters % Democrats % Independents % Republicans % JIMMY CARTER RONALD REAGAN Reagan Supporters (265); Anderson Supporters (73); Democrats (265); Independents (303); Republicans (161). VERY SOMEWHAT SOMEWHAT VERY DON T KNOW TOTAL Total Registered % Carter Supporters % Reagan Supporters % Anderson Supporters % Democrats % Independents % Republicans % Total Registered % Carter Supporters % Reagan Supporters % Anderson Supporters % Democrats % Independents % Republicans % * Numbers of respondents are as follows: Total Registered (745) Carter Supporters (27l)

9 Anderson Supporters EP4 2 i 5 The figures reported below are the breakdowns for the voting question reported in the background memo for Release 41 i, October 1, 1980 (September). They are represented below to facilitate over time comparisons. All figures refer to registered voters. Will Undecided Not Carter Reagan Anderson Other Vote Total (n) Democrats % (327) Independents % (410) Republicans % (216) EDUCATION Less than H.S % (137) High School Gra % (321) More than HS % (507) IDEOLOGY ITEeai % (187) Moderate % (493) Conservative % (226) OCCUPATION 31ue Collar % (213) White Collar % (439) Self Employed % (131) Retired % (130) RACE White % (857) Non white % ( 99) choice of Carter/ Would you say you are voting more for (respondent s Reagan/Anderson), or more against the others? Both for Don t For ginst & Against Know Total j Carter Supporters % (287) Reagan Supporters % (325) Anderson Supporters % (236) Are you very firm about your choice, or do you think you might change I, your mind before election day. Firi Might Change Undecided!1. TOTAL REGISTERED 56 Carter Supporters 70 7] % (967) 100% (28/) 100% (325) 100% (236) Reagan Supporters