([Lie 1&-1LCbWr/EAGLETON POLL

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1 ([Lie 1&-1LCbWr/EAGLETON POLL FOR REL.EASE SUNDAY, OCTOBER 1, 1989 CONTACT: JANICE BALLOU SL/EP 25-1 (EP 75-1) OR BOB CARTER REIflS PFLRASE INFORMATION A story based on the survey fmdings presented in this release and background memo will appear in Sunday s Star-Ledger. Other newspapers may also use this information in their Sunday editions. Electronic media may release after 5:00 p.m. Saturday, September 30. We ask users to properly attribute this copyrighted information to the Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll. FLORIO LEADS COURTER BY 23 POINTS; INDEPENDENT VOTERS FAVOR FLORJO With less than six weeks left in the New Jersey Gubernatorial campaign, the Democratic candidate Jim Boric has a 23 point lead over Jim Courter the Republican contender. The latest Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll of 707 likely voters which was conducted in two waves before and after last Monday s debate, indicates that the debate had no immediate impact on the race for Governor. The results of the two independent samples of likely voters, interviewed by phone between September 20-25, and September 26-28, show identical patterns of support for both candidates. Overall, 53 percent of likely New Jersey voters say they would vote for the Democrat Jim Florio compared to 30 percent who choose the Republican Jim Courter. As would be expected, the candidates receive strong partisan support with 83 percent of Democrats supporting Florio, while Courter is the choice of 72 percent of the Republicans. Among the critical group of Independent voters, however, Florio is currently running ahead of Courter by a two-to-one margin, with 26 percent still undecided. Janice Ballou, Director of the Poll, commented, While Florio is clearly ahead of Courter at this point in the campaign, the election is really just beginning. In New Jersey most voters get their political information from TV. These TV messages have only just begun. THE SIATh UNVWSflV O NEW JERSEY -mnrp Eagleton Institute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey /

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3 2P75-1 (SL/EP25-1) Page 2 The September 25 debate did not give either candidate an advantage in this election. A majority of the 52 percent who either saw the debate or got information about it in the news say it did not change their impression of either candidate. For both candidates, about equal percentages of likely voters say their impression become more favorable as say their impression of the candidates was less favorable after the debate. Even though Florio currently has a substantial lead, about four in ten voters who currently have a preference say they may change their mind before the election. Florio s support, however, is somewhat firmer than Courter s, with 58 percent of those who choose the Democratic nominee saying they are very sure about their choice, compared to 54 percent of Courter s supporters. With about one-half of voters reporting they have a general impression of the Democratic candidate and four-in-ten having one of the Republican, Florio enjoys a more positive image than Courter. Voters impressions of Courter are about evenly divided--22 percent favorable and 20 percent unfavorable, while impressions of Florio are more favorable than unfavorable by better than a three-to-one margin--41 percent versus 13 percent. At this point in the campaign, Courter is not as well known as Florio. Eighteen percent of the likely voters say they have not heard of Courter compared to just 4 percent who have not heard of Florio. Sixty-four percent could volunteer Florio as the Democratic candidate while 48 percent named Courter as the Republican candidate. Since the debate, however, more voters are able to name Courter as the Republican nominee. About one third of voters recognize each of the candidates when they are given their names. Even now, many voters still do not feel they know the candidates--about 46 percent say they know just a little about each candidate. However, about one-half of voters know a lot or some about Florio compared to 35 percent who say the same about Courter Copyright, October 1, 1989, The Eagleton Institute and Newark Star-Ledger.

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5 ([Lie %4ar-ICbger/EAGLETON POLL BACKGROUND MEMO-RELEASE SLIEP2$-1 (EP75-1). SUNDAY. OCTOBER NOTE: This release on the election is based on who are likely voters. These are people are registered to vote and or probably vote. who New who Jerseyans say they report they will definitely The latest Poll was conducted in two waves. Wave 1 was between 20 and 25, 1989, when a random sample of 500 New Jerseyans ages 18 years and older was interviewed by telephone. This sampling yielded a total of 364 respondents who being registered to vote and saying they would definitely or probably vote in November s election, Figures on this sample size are subject to a sampling of ± 5.5 percent. random sample of 500 interviews in Wave 2 was conducted between 26 and 28, and yielded an additional 343 definite or probable voters who were asked questions about the contest and is subject to a sampling of ± 5.5 percent. Figures based on the combined sample size of 707 likely voters are subject to a sampling of ± 3.8 percent. Sampling is the difference in results between interviewing everyone in the population versus a scientific sample taken from that population. Sampling does not take into account possible sources of in any study of public opinion. questions and figures to in this release are as follows: Star-Ledger/Eagleton error September gubernatorial probable inherent The error The error reported error based other referred completed September error error Respondents were first asked, Do you know who the candidate for Governor is? Those able to name the candidates are listed in the mentioned category below. the candidates were told names and asked, have you ever of him before? Those responding in the affirmative are listed in the recognized category below. Not Mentioned Recognized Reco nized Total their COURTER-LIKELY VOTERS (Democratic/Republican) heard Those who did not mention ) TOTAL Wave 1 Wave 2 Panv (9/89 --Democrat --Tndependent --Republican Total) FLORIO--LIKELY VOTERS 48% 34% % 100% (707) (364) (343) (236) (237) (201) TOTAL Wave 1 Wave 2 (9/89 --Democrat (707) (364) 3 99 (343) Party Total) (236) (237) --Republican (201) --Independent June 1989 Rejstered Voters --Courter (644) 8 99 (647) September Likely Voters --Kean (840) --Florio (840) RUTGERS THE STATE UNPSflV QN JEPV Eagleton Institute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey /8 /

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7 EP75-1 (SL/EP2S-1) Do you happen to know what office (Courter/Fiorio) now holds? (IF YES: What is it?) U.S. Other Not Don t Congressman Incorrect Recoenized Know Total COURTER--LIKELY VOTERS 19% 8% 18% 55% 100% (707) Pa --Democrat (236) --Independent (237) --Republican (201) FLORIO LIKELY VOTERS (707) Pa --Democrat (236) --Independent (237) --Republican (201) June Registered Voters --Courter (649) --Florio (647) How much do you think you know about (Courter/Florio)--a lot, some or just a little? A Little/ Not Don t A Lot Nothing Recognized know Total jjjj COURTER-LIKELY VOTERS 6% 29% 46% 18% 0% 99% (707) --Democrat (236) --Independent (237) --Republican (201) FLORIO--LIKELY VOTERS (707) --Democrat (236) --Independent (237) --Republican (201) June Registered Voters --Courter (646) --florio (647) Sept/Oct Likely Voters --Kean (1000) --Shapiro (1000) September Likely Voters --Kean (840) --Florio (840)

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9 Ens-i (SLJEP2S-i) Those choosing either Courter or Florio were asked if they were very sure about voting for him, or might you change your mind before election day? Of the Courter voters, 54 percent said they were sure and 46 percent said they might change. Figty-eight percent of Florio voters were firm while 42 percent said they might switch. Undecided voters were asked at this moment do you lean more towards Courter, or more towards Florio? percent leaned to Courter, 17 percent to Florio and the remainder did not state a preference. Eight With the leaners allocated, and with firmness of preference taken into account, voters displayed the following pattern: LIKELY VOTERS COURTER (Republican Candidate) firm S kn UNDECIDED FLORTO (Democratic Candidate) j Firm IQ1 üü TOTAL 16% 14% 1% 13% 3% 22% 31% 100% (691) Wavel (356) Wave (335) Part j (9/89 Total) --Democrat (235) --Independent (228) --Republican (198) June (632) Registered Voters Sept/Oct (982) Likely Voters September (766) Likely Voters Regardless of who you plan to vote for, who do you think will win the election for Governor? Courter Florio Republican Democrat No Opinion IQii LIKELY VOTERS 22% 59% 19% 100% (707) June (647) Registered Voters Oil How much interest do you have in this election--a lot, some, a little or none at all? Don t Some A little N&i Know 12th Oil LIKELY VOTERS 44% 37% 14% 4% 1% 100% (707) How much do you care who wins the election--a lot, some, just a little or doesn t it really make any difference to you? Don t A Lot Some A Little No Difference Know Total 57% 23% 5% 13% 2% 100% (707) LIKELY VOTERS

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11 EflS-1 (SL/EP2S-1) Did you watch any of Monday night s debate between Courter and Florio on TV or listen to it on the radio? Have you seen or read any news stories about their debate. Only Saw Not Exposed Saw or or Read News to Either Heard Debate About Debate Debate or News Total Lu) LIKELY VOTERS 30% 21% 49% 100% (336) Pa --Democrat (110) --Independent (115) --Republican (94) Who do you think actually got the best of the debate--courter or Florio? By a lot or just a little? * Courter- Courter- Florlo- Florio- Nobody Won! A Lot A Little A Lot A Little No Opinion Total LIKELY VOTERS 8% 15% 9% 17% 51% 100% (177) ft) Based on what you saw or heard about the debate, did your overall impression of Jim Florio become more favorable, less favorable, or didn t your view of him change? More Less Didn t Don t Favorable Favorable Change Know Total Lu) LIKELY VOTERS 21% 17% 55% 6% 99% (176) How about your impression of Jim Courter--did this become more favorable, less favorable, or didn t your view of him change? * More Less Didn t Don t Favorable Favorable Change Know LIKELY VOTERS 19% 20% 57% 4% 100% (176) * Question was asked only of those having seen or heard the debate, or having seen or read any news stories about (lie debate.

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