She t&-1lcbgcf/eagleton POLL

Transcription

1 She t&1lcbgcf/eagleton POLL FOR RELEASE: SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 1989 CONTACT: JANICE BALL.OU RELEASE: SL./EP 27I (EP fli) OR BOB CARTER FI 4$E INFORMATION A story based on the survey findings presented in this release and background memo will appear in Sundays StarLedger. Other newspapers may also use this information in their Sunday editions. Electronic media may release after 5:00 p.m. Saturday, November 4. We ask users to properly attribute this copyrighted information to the StarLedger/Eagleton Poll. IN THE HOMESTRETCIfFLORIO LEADS BY 24 POINTS Jim Florio, the Democratic candidate for governor has a substantial 24 point lead over his opponent Jim Courter, the Republican, going into Tuesday s election. Florio continues to have stronger partisan support than Courter, and is heavily favored among independent voters. The latest Star Ledger/Eagleton Poll was conducted by telephone with 1,000 likely voters from October 29 to November 2, In addition, the survey identified 628 probable voters representing those who are most likely to turn out on election day. As he has during the course of this gubernatorial campaign, Jim Florio continues to get more support from voters than Jim Courter. Florio now leads Courter by a margin of 54 percent to 30 percent among probable voters. Sixteen percent have not yet decided who they will vote for. When the preferences of undecided voters are taken into account, the survey results project Florio receiving about 62 percent of the vote among those most likely to go to the polls on November 7. One of Florio s main advantages in this election comes from the more than 2toi lead he has over Courter among independentsby a margin of 56 to 22 percent In addition, Florio has much stronger support within his own party than Courter. While 85 percent of the Democrats say they will vote for Florio, only 65 percent of the Republicans pick Courter. more A fl ENTION RADIO STATIONS: Audio is available after 5:00 p.m. on Saturday, November 4, 1989 from (201) (Rutgers Feature Phone). It1111EIZ.S THE STA1 UNtPSW Of NEW JEfWV Eogleton Institute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey /

2 More voters continue to have a more positive image of Florio than of Courter. the independent vote, it looks like Florio has been able to bring home the Democrats that Janice Ballou, Director of the Poll, commented: In addition to winning over much of Courter than Florio by a margin of 29 to 15 percent. in3 feel this way about Jim Courter. More voters did not have any opinion or did not know While about 6intO say their impression of Jim Eorio is favorable, just slightly more than 1 Copyright, November 5, 1989, The Eagleton Institute and Newark StarL edger. 30 the one for Governor. It will be really important for voters to remember to participate in these elections as well as The assembly elections look like they will be closely contested, commented Ballou. Republicans by a margin of 39 to 33 percent. being contested. Based on this latest poll, the Democrats have a slight edge over the In addition to the race for Governor, all 80 seats in the New Jersey Legislature are Ballou, Poll Director. support throughout the campaign and seems to be continuing his momentum, said Janice in these last few days before the election, Florio has been able to maintain a solid base of Although there are still some undecided and soft voters that may change theft mind Florio has his largest advantage over Courter by a margin of 73 to 27 percent. Among those voters who have made their choice for governor in the last few days, currently support one of the candidates say they might change theft mind. candidate say they are sure about who they will vote for. However, about I in 5 voters who up. Among those voters who have made up their minds, 8inlO of the supporters of each With the election just a few days away, support for each of the candidates is firming Kean and Reagan had persuaded to vote for them. EP7TI (SL/EP271) Page 2

3 is 632, with a sampling error of ±4.0 percent. percent of registered voters. The sample size of this group Voters based on a projected turnout of between 60 and 65 registered to vote and who report they will definitely or are likelym voters. These are people who say they are probably vote. Figures are also presented for a smaller subset of Probable NOTE: This release on the election is based on New Jerseyans who BACKGROUND MEMO RELEASE SL/EP271 (EP7IU. SUNDAY. NOVEMBER (Courter/Florio) favorable or unfavorable, or don t you have an opinion about him? * In June, September, and midoctober the following question was asked: Is your general impression of Florio (717) Florio (707) June 1989Registered Voters Florio (647) Kean (1162) Florio (1176) October 1989Likely Voters Courter (717) September 1989Likely Voters Courter 22 21) (707) Courter (646) October 1981Registered Voters Republican (283) Democrat (325) Independent (337) Pam (Oct/Nov 1989 Total).4 iobable Voters (632) FLORIOLIKELY VOTERS (1000)..Independent (337) Democrat (325) Pam, (Oct/Nov 1989 Total) Republican (283) obable Voters (632) COURTERLIKELY VOTERS 36% 35% 15% 14% 100% (1000) LATE ourearly NOV Favorable Unfavorable No Ouinion Not Recowilzed Is your general impression of (CourterfFlorio) favorable or unfavorable? as follows: interviewed before the data are statistically weighted. The questions and figures referred to in this release are ± 3.2 percent. Sampling error is the probable difference in results between interviewing everyone in the )robably vote in November s election. Figures based on this sample size are subject to a sampling error of The latest StarLedger/Eagleton Poll was conducted between October 29 and November 2, 1989, when a random sample of 1,000 New Jerseyans ages 18 years and older was interviewed by telephone. The survey was administered only with respondents who reported being registered to vote and saying they would definitely or population versus a scientific sample taken from that population. Sampling error does not take into account other possible sources of error inherent in any study of public opinion. The a is the actual number of people ([he tarjlcbgcr/eagleton POLL

4 EP771 (SL/EP271) 2 Suppose the election for was held today and you had to choose right now. Would you vote for Jim the Republican; or Jim Florio, the Courter Governor Democrat? COURTER (Republican Canddptel UNDECIDED FLORIO (Democratic Candidatel Likely Voters 28% 18% 54% 100% (989) Probable Voters (628) Pa Democrat Independent (324) (332) Republican (278) ideglen Liberal (180) (470) Conservative (264) Moderate Gender Men (480) Women (509) White (807) Nonwhite (169) Reeipn North (476) Central (265) South (248) Tyye Central city (100) Cities and older suburbs (222) New suburbs (529) Rural (138) of Community October (700) September (691) June (647) Voters) (Registered October (1097) (Likely Voters; Kean/Florlo) * Does not include 2% who said they would not vote.

5 EP771 (SL/EP271) 3 Those choosing either Courter or Florio were asked if they were very sure about voting for him, or might you change your mind before election day? Of the Courter voters, 81 percent said they were sure and 19 percent said they might change. Eighty percent of Florio voters were firm while 20 percent said they might switch. Undecided voters were asked at this moment do you lean more towards Courter, or more towards Floric? percent leaned to Courter, 20 percent to Florio and the remainder did not state a preference. Twenty With the leaners allocated, and with firmness of preference taken into account, voters displayed the following pattern: COURTER (Republican Candidate) Ernn ft J FLORIO (Democratic Candidate) UWDECIDED La S2ft fizm Ica1 La) Likely Voters 23% 5% 4% 11% 3% 11% 43% 100% (989) Probable Voters (628) Parry (Oct/Wow 1989 Total) Democrat (324) Independent (332) Republican (278) October (700) September (691) June (632) (Registered Voters) October (1086) As of Thursday night (Nov. 2), with undecided voters allocated, the two party division of the vote among probable voters was: Florio 62%; Courter 38%. When did you decide who you would vote forin the last few days, in the last couple of weeks, in the last month or two, or before that? Last Last Couple Last Month Before Don t Few Days of Weeks or Two Two Months Know Içjj La) Likely Voters 9% 24% 32% 31% 4% 100% (804) Probable Voters (520) Choice (or Governor Courter (279) Florio (524) October (587) CHOICE FOR GOVERNOR When Decided IThp To Vote For Courter Florio M Last few days 27% 73% 100% (70) Last couple of weeks (185) Last month or two (250) Before two months (264) Question was onô asked of the 804 likely voters who selected a candidate to vote for.

6 EP771 (SL/EP271) 4 Regardless of who you plan to vote for, who do you think will win the election for Governor? Courter Flprip No Opinion jj Likely Voters 12% 66% 22% 100% (990) Probable Voters (629) October (717) September (707) June (647) (Registered Voters) How interested are you in the outcome of this electionvery, somewhat, not very, or not at all interested? Don t Somewhat Not Very Not at all Know Ick1 zii Likely Voters 55% 37% 4% 2% 2% 100% (999) Probable Voters (632) October (717) September (707) If the election for State Assembly was held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidates from your district? Don t Democratic Republican Other Know Ica1 LnI Likely Voters 39% 33% 3% 24% 99% (1000) Probable Voters (632) October (717) September (706)