San Diego 2nd City Council District Race 2018

Transcription

1 San Diego 2nd City Council District Race 2018 Submitted to: Bryan Pease Submitted by: Jonathan Zogby Chief Executive Officer Chad Bohnert Chief Marketing Officer Marc Penz Systems Administrator Zeljka Buturovic Survey Statistician January 2018 Utica, New York zogbyanalytics.com 2018

2 Table of Contents Page I. Methodology and Sample Characteristics 2 II. Executive Summary 6 III. Graphs and Tables 8 Page 1

3 I. Methodology and Sample Characteristics was commissioned by Bryan Pease to conduct a live interviewer telephone survey of 300 likely voters in 2nd City Council District of San Diego, California. Telephone samples were randomly drawn from random telephone lists. Up to four calls were made to reach a sampled phone number. Respondents who were not available but qualified to respond were allowed to set appointments to be recalled within the time frame of the field work. Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 300 is +/- 5.7 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, if the identical survey were repeated, its confidence intervals would contain the true value of parameters 95 times out of 100. Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative. Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order. About : is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions. The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation. Page 2

4 Demographics for the 300 survey respondents Sample Characteristics Frequency Valid Percent* Sample size Age Did not answer age 5 -- No college degree Education College degree Did not answer education 1 -- Household Income Level Race Gender Less than $25K 17 7 $25K-35K 16 6 $35K-50K $50K-75K $75K-100K $100K-150K $150K or more Did not answer income White Hispanic 26 9 African American 3 1 Asian 9 3 Other 3 1 Did not answer race Male Female *Percentages may not equal 100% due to rounding. Page 3

5 How likely are you to vote in the 2018 election for San Diego city council district 2? Somewhat likely 17% Very likely 32% Definitely 51% Page 4

6 Party Independent 28% Democratic 38% Republican 34% Page 5

7 Considering your finances, are you better off, worse off, or about the same now as you were four years ago? Not sure 1% About the same 38% Better off 50% Worse off 12% Page 6

8 II. Executive Summary was commissioned by Bryan Pease to conduct a live interviewer telephone survey of 300 likely voters in the 2nd City Council District of San Diego, California. A half (51%) of surveyed voters said they would definitively vote in the election and another third (32%) said they were very likely to vote. Around a third of the surveyed voters were Democrats (38%), followed by Republicans (34%) and independents (28%). A half (50%) of respondents said their finances were better off today than they were four years ago and about a third (38%) said they were about the same. The financial situation of respondents was worse than four years ago for only 12% of respondents. City Council District 2 Election: People and Issues When asked who they would vote for between current city council member Lorie Zapf and environmental attorney Bryan Pease, 42% are unsure, 20% choose Pease, and 39% choose Zapf. When the choices are current city council member Lorie Zapf and medical doctor Jen Campbell, 46% are unsure while Zapf and Campbell receive 36% and 19%, respectively. Pease s results are the strongest among females (25% vs. 15% for males) and Democrats (29% vs. 12% among Republicans and 16% among independents). Party affiliation provides a helpful clue for the respondents: when told that Pease and Campbell are Democrats, whereas Zapf is a Republican, undecided respondents shrink to 37% resulting in a 41% lead for Zapf, followed by Pease (16%) and Campbell (6%). In this scenario, Pease reaches his highest numbers among Democrats (32%, whereas only 7% support Campbell). Bryan Pease is familiar to 20% of surveyed voters and most of them (15%) have a favorable opinion, including 4% who have a very favorable opinion. This puts Pease ahead of Campbell and Beane who are known to 13% and 7% of respondents, respectively. Lorie Zapf is, comparatively speaking, much better known in the district she is familiar to 50% of respondents, most of whom (39%) have a favorable opinion of her. Voters with college or graduate degrees are somewhat more familiar (78% are not familiar) with Pease than are voters without college degree (87% are not familiar). Zapf scores notably better among Republicans (48% very favorable and somewhat favorable combined) and independents (44%) than among Democrats (27%). Page 7

9 The most important issue for surveyed voters in the 2nd City Council District of San Diego is crime and safety (82% consider this issue very important ), followed by homelessness (71% consider it very important). The least important issues, comparatively speaking, are animal rights (34% consider this to be very important) and public transit (41% consider it to be very important). When very important and somewhat important categories are combined, all issues exceed 70%. Among Democrats, the most important issue is environmental protection (87% consider it very important), followed by homelessness (85%), while crime and safety and climate change share third place at 78%. A majority of respondents (54%) disagree (including 38% who strongly disagree) that SeaWorld should be allowed to continue keeping captive orcas in small tanks (Democrats, independents and females are particularly opposed to the current practice). Similarly, 54% of respondents agree (including 35% who strongly agree) that San Diego needs a rent-control ordinance to prevent landlords from increasing rents significantly beyond the rate of inflation. Democrats (63% strongly agree and somewhat agree combined), independents (59%) and females (64%) stand out in their support for the ordinance. Effects of Learning About Candidates When told that Bryan Pease supports rent control while Campbell and Zapf are opposed to it, surveyed voters say they are more likely vs. less likely to support Pease by 41% to 36% margin. The effect of this information is particularly pronounced among groups who support rent control, as reflected in 60% of Democrats, 46% of independents and 51% of females who say the information makes them more likely to support Pease. Being told that Bryan Pease is the environmental attorney who protected baby seals at the Children s Pool Beach had a more noticeable effect, with those who were more likely to support Pease leading those who were less likely to support him 43% to 27%; the effect was especially pronounced among Democrats (62% said they were more likely to support Pease). Of all the information tested, learning that Lorie Zapf supported SeaWorld s keeping orcas in small tanks had the most dramatic overall effect with 42% of respondents saying there were less likely to support her, compared to 21% who were more likely. After being exposed to this information as well as that contained in the rest of the questionnaire, when asked to choose between Pease, Campbell, Beane and Zapf, 22% choose Pease and 34% choose Zapf, while Campbell and Beane scored 5% and 2%, respectively. Page 8

10 III. Graphs and Tables In the election for city council district 2, if you had a choice between Bryan Pease, an environmental attorney, and Lorie Zapf, a current city council member, for whom would you vote? (Rotate Names) Bryan Pease 20% Not sure 42% Lorie Zapf 39% In the election for city council district 2, if you had a choice between Lorie Zapf, a current city council member, and Jen Campbell, a medical doctor, for whom would you vote? (Rotate Names) Not sure 46% Lorie Zapf 36% Jen Campbell 19% Page 9

11 In the election for city council district 2, if you knew Bryan Pease and Jen Campbell are Democrats and Lorie Zapf is a Republican, for whom would you vote? (Rotate Names) Democrat Bryan Pease 16% Democrat Jen Campbell 6% Not sure 37% Republican Lorie Zapf 41% Page 11

12 Now I am going to ask you about several issues, please indicate whether in your opinion each issue is very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not at all important: Very important Not very important Not sure Somewhat important Not at all important Affordable housing Environmental protection Public transit Streets and potholes Animal rights Crime and public safety Homelessness Climate change Page 12

13 Here is a list of names, please tell me if your overall impression of each person is very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable, or you are not familiar enough to make a judgment? Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Not familiar enough Not sure Bryan Pease Lorie Zapf Jen Campbell Jordan Beane Page 13

14 SeaWorld was recently exposed in the documentary Blackfish for keeping orcas confined in small tanks where they have little room to move or engage in natural behaviors. In the wild, orcas swim up to 100 miles per day and are highly intelligent, social animals. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: SeaWorld should be allowed to continue keeping captive orcas in small tanks? Not sure 4% Strongly agree 17% Strongly disagree 38% Somewhat agree 25% Somewhat disagree 16% Page 14

15 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: San Diego needs a rent control ordinance to prevent landlords from increasing rent significantly beyond the rate of inflation? Not sure 4% Strongly disagree 28% Strongly agree 35% Somewhat disagree 14% Somewhat agree 18% Page 15

16 For the following statements, please tell me if each would make you much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, much less likely, or make no difference in your support for each candidate. Much more likely Somewhat more likely Somewhat less likely Much less likely No difference Not sure If you knew that Bryan Pease supports rent control while Jen Campbell and Lorie Zapf both oppose rent control, would that make you more or less likely to support Bryan Pease? If you knew that Bryan Pease is the environmental attorney who protected baby seals at Children's Pool Beach, would that make you more or less likely to support Bryan Pease? If you knew that Lorie Zapf supports SeaWorld keeping orcas in small tanks, would that make you more or less likely to support Lorie Zapf? Page 16

17 Knowing what you know now, If the election for city council district 2 were held today and the candidates were Bryan Pease, Lorie Zapf, Jen Campbell, and Jordan Beane, for whom would you vote? (Rotate names) Not sure 36% Bryan Pease 22% Someone else 1% Jordan Beane 2% Jen Campbell 5% Lorie Zapf 34% Page 17