Richmond s Mayoral Race a Two Person Contest According to New Poll

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Richmond s Mayoral Race a Two Person Contest According to New Poll"

Darleen Blair
6 years ago
Views:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Wednesday, September 28, 2016 FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT: Laura Lafayette, Chief Executive Officer Richmond Association of REALTORS llafayette@rarealtors.

independently but on their behalf by American Strategies.

1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Wednesday, September 28, 2016 FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT: Laura Lafayette, Chief Executive Officer Richmond Association of REALTORS (804) (office) (804) (cell) Richmond s Mayoral Race a Two Person Contest According to New Poll On Tuesday, the Richmond Association of REALTORS released a poll conducted independently but on their behalf by American Strategies. The poll confirms what the August 30 CNU poll indicated: Joe Morrissey continues to lead in six of nine districts, with Jack Berry leading in the remaining three. It is often said that politics is the art of the possible, and the only possible person who can win the mayoral election other than Joe is Jack, noted Laura Lafayette, CEO of the Richmond Association of REALTORS. Fortunately for the citizens of Richmond, Jack Berry has the knowledge, the experience, the professional relationships, and the temperament to do an excellent job as mayor--for all Richmonders. Jack has a solid lead in three of nine districts and he is within striking distance of the lead in Districts 3 and 5, Lafayette noted. If no candidate wins five districts November 8 and a run off between the two top vote getters is triggered, Berry places a strong second in total votes city wide. Based on projected voter turnout in each of the districts and based on the percentage of those voters who say they will vote for Berry, Berry s projected voter turnout city wide is 28,941; if the election were held today. Berry trails Morrissey s total of 34,424; but Berry s tally is almost double that of Stoney (15,987) and Baliles (14,215). The voters of Richmond now have a clear choice about who will run City Hall and represent Richmond to the region, state, and beyond over the next four years Joe Morrissey or Jack Berry. People can say the field is crowded or the picture is cloudy, it s not; one of these men will be the next mayor, the only question is, which one, concluded Lafayette. # # # Serving over 4,000 REALTORS and affiliate members who live and work in the Richmond region, the Richmond Association of REALTORS is the voice for real estate in the Richmond metropolitan area.

2 Date: September 27, 2016 To: From: RE: Interested Parties Joe Goode, President American Strategies Morrissey and Berry Lead in Race for Richmond Mayor Joe Morrissey and Jack Berry are the two front-runners in the campaign for Richmond mayor according to a new survey by American Strategies of likely November general election voters. Morrissey is well positioned with comfortable leads in four city council districts and smaller leads in two others. Berry leads in the city s other three districts. A candidate must win five districts to prevail in November. Otherwise the race goes to a run-off between the top two vote getters. Citywide, Morrissey holds a four-point lead over Berry (29 to 25 percent). Two other candidates finish in double digits: Levar Stoney places third with 14 percent with Jonathan Baliles close behind at 12 percent. Michelle Mosby attracts 7 percent; two percent say they will support one of the other candidates and 11 percent are undecided. As shown in Table 1 below, Morrissey holds statistically significant leads in City Council Districts 6, 7, 8 and 9. He finishes at 50 percent or higher in Districts 6, 8 and 9 and at 44 percent in district 7. He has much smaller leads in District 3 (+9-points, 32 percent for Morrissey and 23 percent for Berry) and District 5 is a toss-up (Morrissey 29 percent, Berry 26 percent and Stoney at 17 percent). Table 1: Mayoral Vote by District (%) District Morrissey Berry Stoney Baliles Mosby Other Undecided Margin of error * / * / * / * / * / * / * / * / * /-12.8 Total /-4.0

3 Berry, by contrast, is well ahead in District 1 (45 to 29 percent for Baliles) and District 2 (44 to 19 percent for Baliles). Berry also leads in District 4 with 28 percent, but three other candidates are in double digits: Stoney at 18 percent, Morrissey with 16 percent and Baliles at 15 percent. Many voters are still making up their minds. While just 11 percent are undecided, 36 percent are only somewhat certain or not certain at all about their current choice for mayor. Only 43 percent are very certain that they will vote for their current choice. Eighteen percent of all voters are very certain to vote for Morrissey and 12 percent are strong Berry voters. Morrissey is by far the best known - and divisive - candidate. Forty percent have a favorable opinion of Morrissey while 48 percent are unfavorable. Mosby also polarizes voters: 30 percent have a favorable opinion of her, while 29 percent are unfavorable. Berry, on the other hand, attracts favorable ratings from 44 percent while only 13 percent are unfavorable. One-fifth have never heard of Berry (22 percent). Baliles (42 percent favorable) and Stoney (39 percent) are equally well liked and have similar unfavorable ratings to Berry (14 percent and 15 percent). About one-quarter of voters have never heard of either Baliles or Stoney. Education is by far the most important issue for voters. Four-in-ten (41 percent) cite education as their top concern. The city budget and spending is second at 18 percent with city hall and city services (11 percent) third. Black voters are especially concerned about education (51 percent) while white voters have a somewhat more varied agenda: education is the top concern for 33 percent, the city budget and spending for 27 percent and city services 14 percent. Voters are split on the current direction of the city with 43 percent who think things are going in the right direction and 48 percent who feel that things have gotten seriously off on the wrong track. Self-identified Democrats are somewhat more optimistic (53 percent right direction) while majorities of independents (63 percent) and self-id Republicans (62 percent) are more likely to say that things are off on the wrong track. * * * * * * * * * * * * * Methodology: American Strategies designed and administered this telephone survey conducted by professional interviewers. The survey reached 819 adults (and was weighted down to a base sample of 600 voters - see below), age 18 or older who indicated they were registered to vote and would almost certainly or probably vote in the November 2016 election for U.S. President, Congress, and Richmond city offices like mayor and city council. The survey was conducted September 17-21, Telephone numbers were generated by a random selection of adults from the Virginia voter file based on past vote history. The sample was stratified by age, race, gender, party score, and region of the city. Quotas were assigned to reflect the demographic distribution of likely November 2016 voters. Thirty-eight percent of these respondents were reached on wireless phones and the remainder on land lines. The data were weighted by gender, age, and race. Oversamples were drawn in three city council districts (62 additional interviews in District 3; and 52 additional interviews in Districts 5, and 7) and citywide (N=54) to ensure representation of non-white voters. The overall margin of error for the total sample is +/- 4.0%. The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies. (Percentage totals may not add up precisely due to rounding). 2

4 September 17-21, Respondents 369 Landline respondents, 231 Wireless respondents Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points Virginia - Richmond Mayoral: Frequencies Q.2 First of all, are you registered to vote in Richmond? (IF NO) I'm sorry. Is there a registered Richmond voter available I can speak to? Total Yes 100 No (TERMINATE) - Q.3 What are the chances of your voting in the election for President, Congress, and Richmond City offices like Mayor and City Council this November -- are you almost certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or don't you think you will vote? Total Almost certain 92 Probably (TERMINATE) - Don't think will vote (TERMINATE) - (Don't know/refused) (TERMINATE) - Q.4 Sex of respondent (INTERVIEWER CODE--DO NOT ASK RESPONDENT) Total Male 45 Female 55 Q.5 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Richmond are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Total Right direction 43 Wrong track 48 (Don't know/refused) 10 Right direction - Wrong track -5

5 Q.6 Which ONE of the following issues is the most important for you in deciding your vote for Richmond mayor: (READ LIST) (RANDOMIZE) (IF MORE THAN ONE) Well which one is the most important in deciding your vote for Richmond mayor? Total Education and schools 41 The city budget and spending 18 City Hall and city services 11 Jobs and attracting new businesses 10 Crime and illegal drugs 9 Poverty 6 Housing costs 2 (Other) 1 (None) - (Don't know/refused) 4 Q.7 Okay. Now I'm going to read you the names of some people, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you have no opinion or have never heard of that person, please say so. (IF DON'T KNOW) Would you say you are unable to give an opinion of (READ BELOW) or have you never heard of (READ BELOW)? (READ BELOW) Would you say you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of (READ BELOW)? (RANDOMIZE) Very Fav Smwt Fav Smwt Unfav Very Unfav (No Opin/Ntrl) (Never heard) (Dk/Ref) Total Fav Total Unfav A. Joseph Morrissey B. Levar Stoney C. Jonathan Baililes D. Jack Berry E. Michelle Mosby Fav - Unfav 2 of 7

6 Q.8/9 Now thinking about the election for Richmond mayor this November. As you may know there are eight candidates running for Mayor, including (ROTATE) Joseph Morrissey, Levar Stoney, Jonathan Baliles, Jack Berry, and Michelle Mosby. If the election for Mayor were held today, for whom would you vote -- (ROTATE) Joseph Morrissey, Levar Stoney, Jonathan Baliles, Jack Berry, Michelle Mosby, or someone else? (IF SOMEONE ELSE) Who specifically will you be voting for? Total Joseph Morrissey 27 Lean Joseph Morrissey 2 Levar Stoney 12 Lean Levar Stoney 1 Jonathan Baliles 11 Lean Jonathan Baliles 1 Jack Berry 22 Lean Jack Berry 2 Michelle Mosby 5 Lean Michelle Mosby 2 Someone else 2 Lean Someone else 0 (Undecided) 11 Total Joseph Morrissey 29 Total Levar Stoney 14 Total Jonathan Baliles 12 Total Jack Berry 25 Total Michelle Mosby 7 Total Someone else 2 3 of 7

7 Q.10 (IF NOT UNDECIDED IN LOCALVOTE) How certain are you that you would vote for CANDIDATE, are you very certain, somewhat certain or not certain at all? Total Strong Morrissey 18 Weak Morrissey 11 Strong Stoney 5 Weak Stoney 9 Strong Baliles 4 Weak Baliles 8 Strong Berry 12 Weak Berry 12 Strong Mosby 3 Weak Mosby 5 Strong else 1 Weak else 1 (Undecided) 11 4 of 7

8 Q.11/12/13 Finally, I would like to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a (ROTATE) Republican, a Democrat, or what? Total Strong Democrat 47 Weak Democrat 9 Independent-lean Democrat 10 Independent 13 Independent-lean Republican 6 Weak Republican 4 Strong Republican 8 (Don't know/refused) 3 Democrat 56 Independent with Leaners 28 Republican 13 Democrat - Republican 44 Democrat and Ind. Lean Dem 66 Pure Independent 13 Republican and Ind. Lean Repub 18 Democrat and Ind. Lean Dem - Republican and Ind. Lean Repub 48 5 of 7

9 Q.14 In what year were you born? (DON'T KNOW/REFUSED = 0000) Total Over (No answer) and over 43 Q.15 What is the last year of schooling that you have completed? (DO NOT READ LIST) Total 1-11th grade 3 High school graduate 13 Non-college post H.S. 1 Some college 19 College graduate 35 Post-graduate school 26 (Don't know/refused) 3 H.S. or less 17 Post H.S. 19 College Graduate 61 Not College 36 Q.16 What is your race? (DO NOT READ LIST) Total White 48 Black 35 Hispanic 1 Asian/Pacific Islander 1 (Other) 7 (Don't know/refused) 8 6 of 7

10 Q.17 Phone line type Total Wireless 38 Not Wireless 62 Q.18 Region by City Council District Total CC of 7

Morrissey leads crowded contest for Richmond mayor; voters sour on current City Council and School Board

August 30, 2016 Morrissey leads crowded contest for Richmond mayor; voters sour on current City Council and School Board Summary of Key Findings 1. Joe Morrissey has 28% of the city-wide vote in the crowded