September 2017 Toplines
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1 The first of its kind bi-monthly survey of racially and ethnically diverse young adults Field Period: 08/31-09/16/2017 Total N: 1,816 adults Age Range: NOTE: All results indicate percentages unless labeled otherwise.
2 MARGIN OF ERROR ESTIMATES (% pts) Group Estimate Full Sample +/ African +/ Asian +/ Latinxs +/ Whites +/ Democrats +/ Independents +/ Republicans +/ Male +/ Female +/ NOTE: All estimates are calculated at the 95% level of confidence 2
3 Q0. Did you vote for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, someone else, or not vote in the 2016 presidential election? Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Someone else Did not vote in the 2016 presidential election DON T KNOW SKIP/REFUSED 1 - * * * Q1. Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove DON T KNOW - - * - * SKIP/REFUSED 1 * - * * Q2. Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove DON T KNOW * * SKIP/REFUSED 1 * * * * 3
4 Q3. For both parties, please select if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that party. If you don t know enough about the party to have an opinion, you can say that too. [ITEMS RANDOMIZED] Q3A. The Republican Party Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Don t know enough to say SKIP/REFUSED Q3B. The Democratic Party Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Don t know enough to say SKIP/REFUSED 1 * 1 * * Q4. Do you think the Democratic Party cares about people like you, or not? Yes No DON T KNOW * * SKIP/REFUSED
5 Q5. Do you think the Republican Party cares about people like you, or not? Yes No DON T KNOW * * SKIP/REFUSED 1 2 * 1 1 Q6. Would you say things in this country are Off on the wrong track Generally headed in the right direction Not sure SKIP/REFUSED 1 * 1 * * Q7. How would you describe the nation s economy these days? Would you say Very good Somewhat good Neither good nor poor Somewhat poor Very poor Not sure SKIP/REFUSED 1 * * * * Q8. These days, do you feel optimistic that of different political views can still come together and work out their differences, or are you pessimistic that can do that now? Optimistic Pessimistic DON T KNOW * * SKIP/REFUSED 2 *
6 Q9. Do you think the country has become more united, more divided, or not really changed since President Trump took office? More united More divided Hasn t really changed DON T KNOW SKIP/REFUSED 1 * Q11. Generally speaking, how optimistic are you about your personal future think about things like finding and keeping a good job, paying off your student loan debt, and being able to afford the lifestyle you want? Very optimistic Somewhat optimistic Neither optimistic nor pessimistic Somewhat pessimistic Very pessimistic DON T KNOW * * SKIP/REFUSED 1 * 1 * 1 Q12. Next we would like for you to think about the upcoming congressional elections that will be held in In the congressional elections in 2018, do you plan to vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate? Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Neither/Not Sure SKIP/REFUSED 1 *
7 If Neither/Not Sure Q12A. Do you lean more towards planning to vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? African Asian Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Neither SKIP/REFUSED 3 * N= Q7A. What do you think are the three most important problems facing this country today? Please select which three of these are the most important. [ITEMS RANDOMIZED] Abortion 2 * National debt Environment and climate change Gay rights Gun control Health care Immigration Poverty Income inequality Unemployment Economic growth Military strength Morality and religion in society Racism Social Security Taxes Women s rights Crime Foreign policy Education Terrorism and homeland security Police brutality DON T KNOW * SKIP/REFUSED 1 1 * * * 7
8 Q7B. Please rank these three problems facing this country today in order of their importance to you. [SHOW ITEMS SELECTED IN Q7A] African American adults Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion 1 1 * National debt Environment and climate change Gay rights Gun control Health care Immigration Poverty Income inequality Unemployment Economic growth Military strength 1 1 * Morality and religion in society 2 * 2 Racism Social Security Taxes Women s rights * 1 3 Crime Foreign policy Education Terrorism and homeland security Police brutality N=
9 Asian American adults Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion - * - National debt Environment and climate change Gay rights 1 1 * Gun control Health care Immigration Poverty 4 * 5 Income inequality Unemployment Economic growth Military strength Morality and religion in society Racism Social Security Taxes Women s rights * 1 2 Crime Foreign policy Education Terrorism and homeland security Police brutality * 3 2 N=
10 Latinx adults Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion 2 * 1 National debt Environment and climate change Gay rights * 2 1 Gun control Health care Immigration Poverty Income inequality Unemployment Economic growth Military strength * * 1 Morality and religion in society 3 * 2 Racism Social Security * 2 3 Taxes Women s rights Crime Foreign policy Education Terrorism and homeland security Police brutality N=
11 White adults Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion National debt Environment and climate change Gay rights * 1 2 Gun control Health care Immigration Poverty Income inequality Unemployment Economic growth Military strength Morality and religion in society Racism Social security Taxes Women s rights Crime Foreign policy Education Terrorism and homeland security Police brutality N=
12 All adults Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion National debt Environment and climate change Gay rights * 1 2 Gun control Health care Immigration Poverty Income inequality Unemployment Economic growth Military strength Morality and religion in society Racism Social Security Taxes Women s rights Crime Foreign policy Education Terrorism and homeland security Police brutality N= 1,816 1,816 1,816 Q38A. Since the November presidential election, have you attended a political event, rally or organized protest, or have you not attended any of these types of events since then? Yes No DON T KNOW SKIP/REFUSED
13 If yes to Q38A. Q38B. And would you say the protest you attended since the 2016 election has been in support of Donald Trump or his policies, in opposition to Donald Trump or his policies, or not related to Donald Trump or his policies? African Asian In support of Donald Trump or his policies In opposition of Donald Trump or his policies Not related to Donald Trump or his policies DON T KNOW SKIP/REFUSED - - * - * N= Q56. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement: All groups should be entitled to hold parades and demonstrations, even if they represent causes most oppose, such as communism, Nazis, or white supremacy. Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree DON T KNOW * SKIP/REFUSED Q48. Do you personally see the Confederate flag more as a symbol of Southern pride or more as a symbol of racism? Southern pride Racism DON T KNOW * 1 SKIP/REFUSED
14 Q55. Do you support or oppose efforts to remove Confederate statues and symbols from public places such as government buildings and parks? Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose DON T KNOW * 1 SKIP/REFUSED Q51. Which do you think is more important for college campuses to focus on? African Asian Allowing people to speak their minds freely even if someone gets offended Ensuring that people feel welcome and safe on campus or in college classrooms DON T KNOW - - * * * SKIP/REFUSED
15 DEMOGRAPHICS PID1. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or what? Democrat Republican Independent Something Else DON'T KNOW * * SKIP/REFUSED If independent, something else, or DK/REF in PID1 PIDI. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party? Closer to the Republican Party Closer to the Democratic Party Neither DON T KNOW * SKIP/REFUSED N= If Democrat in PID1 PIDA. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat? Strong Democrat Not very strong Democrat DON T KNOW SKIP/REFUSED - * * - * N=
16 If Republican in PID1 PIDB. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a not very strong Republican? Strong Republican Not very strong Republican DON T KNOW SKIP/REFUSED N= PARTY ID. Combines PID1, PIDI, PIDA, and PIDB. Democrat (NET) Strong Democrat Not very strong Democrat Closer to the Democratic Party Independent/None Don t lean Republican (NET) Closer to the Republican Party Not very strong Republican Strong Republican N= AGE
17 GENDER Male Female RACE/ETHNICITY 1 All adults African American 15 Asian American 7 Latinx 21 White 56 Other 1 N= 1816 MARITAL STATUS Married Widowed * * Divorced Separated 1 * Never married Living with partner EMPLOYMENT STATUS Employed Not employed All of the African American, Asian American, White, and Other respondents do not identify as Latinx. 17
18 EDUCATION African Asian Less than a high school diploma High school graduate or equivalent Some college College graduate or above INCOME Under $10, $10,000 to under $20, $20,000 to under $30, $30,000 to under $40, $40,000 to under $50, $50,000 to under $75, $75,000 to under $100, $100,000 to under $150, $150,000 or more N=
19 UNWEIGHTED DEMOGRAPHICS UNWEIGHTED PARTY ID. Combines PID1, PIDI, PIDA, and PIDB. Democrat (NET) Strong Democrat Not very strong Democrat Closer to the Democratic Party Independent/None Don t lean Republican (NET) Closer to the Republican Party Not very strong Republican Strong Republican N= UNWEIGHTED AGE UNWEIGHTED GENDER African Asian Male Female
20 UNWEIGHTED RACE/ETHNICITY All adults African American 28 Asian American 14 Latinx 28 White 28 Other 2 N= 1816 UNWEIGHTED MARITAL STATUS Married Widowed * * Divorced Separated 1 * Never married Living with partner UNWEIGHTED EMPLOYMENT STATUS Employed Not employed UNWEIGHTED EDUCATION African Asian Less than a high school diploma High school graduate or equivalent Some college College graduate or above
21 UNWEIGHTED INCOME Under $10, $10,000 to under $20, $20,000 to under $30, $30,000 to under $40, $40,000 to under $50, $50,000 to under $75, $75,000 to under $100, $100,000 to under $150, $150,000 or more N=
22 METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW The NBC News/GenForward Survey is a collaborative project between NBC News and GenForward, a project at the University of Chicago, led by Professor Cathy J. Cohen. Interviews were conducted with a representative sample from GenForward SM, a nationally representative survey panel of adults ages recruited and administered by NORC at the University of Chicago. A total of 1,816 interviews were conducted between August 31 and September 16, 2017 with adults ages representing the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including completed interviews with 503 African American young adults, 258 Asian American young adults, 505 Latinx young adults, 510 white young adults, and 40 young adults with other racial and ethnic backgrounds. The survey was offered in English and Spanish and via telephone and web modes. The NBC News/GenForward survey was built from two sample sources: Sixty-five percent of the completed interviews are sourced from NORC s AmeriSpeak Panel. AmeriSpeak is a probability based panel that also uses address-based sample but sourced from the NORC National Frame with enhanced sample coverage. During the initial recruitment phase of the AmeriSpeak panel, randomly selected U.S. households were sampled with a known, non-zero probability of selection and then contacted by U.S. mail, , telephone, and field interviewers (face-to-face). Thirty-five percent of the completed interviews are sourced from the Black Youth Project (BYP) panel of young adults recruited by NORC. The BYP sample is from a probability-based household panel that uses an address-based sample from a registered voter database of the entire U.S. Households were selected using stratified random sampling to support oversampling of households with African, Latinxs, and Asian ages NORC contacted sampled households by U.S. mail and by telephone, inviting them to register and participate in public opinion surveys twice a month. Panelists on both the BYP and AmeriSpeak panels are invited to register for the panel via the web or by telephone to participate in public opinion surveys. Of the 1,816 completed interviews in the GenForward September survey, 94 percent were completed by web and 6 percent by telephone. The survey completion rate is 26.7 percent. The weighted AAPOR RR3 panel recruitment rate is 22.1 percent and the weighted household panel retention rate is 89.5 percent, for a cumulative AAPOR Response Rate 3 of 5.3 percent. The overall margin of sampling error is +/- 3.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level, including the design effect. Among racial subgroups, the margin of sampling error at the 95 percent confidence level is +/- 5.5 percentage points for African, +/- 8.8 percentage points for Asian, +/- 7.0 percentage points for Latinxs, and +/- 5.8 percentage points for whites. Among partisan subgroups, the margin of sampling error at the 95 percent confidence level is +/- for Democrats, +/ for 6.92 Republicans, and +/ for 22
23 Independents. Among gender categories, the margin of sampling error at the 95 percent confidence level for is +/ for male and +/ for female. To encourage cooperation, respondents were offered incentives for completing the survey that ranged from the cash-equivalent of $3 to the cash-equivalent of $10. The interviews from the two probability-based sample sources were combined for statistical weighting and analysis. The combined panel samples provide sample coverage of approximately 97% of the U.S. household population. Those excluded from the sample include people with P.O. Box only addresses, some addresses not listed in the USPS Delivery Sequence File, and some newly constructed dwellings. The statistical weights incorporate the appropriate probability of selection for the BYP and AmeriSpeak samples, nonresponse adjustments, and also, raking ratio adjustments to population benchmarks for year old adults. A poststratification process is used to adjust for any survey nonresponse as well as any noncoverage or under- and over-sampling resulting from the study-specific sample design. The poststratification process was done separately for each racial/ethnic group and involved the following variables: age, gender, education, and census region. The weighted data, which reflect the U.S. population of adults ages 18-34, and the year-old populations for African, Latinxs, Asian, and non-latinx whites, were used for all analyses. 23
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