The 2016 Republican Primary Race: Trump Still Leads October 4-8, 2015

Transcription

1 The 2016 Republican Primary Race: Trump Still Leads October 4-8, 2015 CBS NEWS POLL For release: Sunday October 11, :30 am EDT Donald Trump (27%) remains in the lead in the race for the Republican nomination, with Ben Carson (21%) in second place. Carson and Trump have the highest favorable ratings among Republican primary voters, but Trump along with Jeb Bush -- also has the highest unfavorable rating. Jeb Bush s favorable rating has dropped 11 points since August. Among registered voters overall, Trump is viewed more negatively; 53% are unfavorable. Carson receives strong assessments from Republican primary voters on being honest and caring, while Trump continues to be seen as the strongest leader. The Race for the Nomination Donald Trump continues to lead the field nationally in the race to become the Republican nominee for president. 27% of Republican primary voters support Trump, giving him a six point lead over his closest competitor, neurosurgeon Ben Carson (21%). The rest of the Republican field is in single digits, with Texas Senator Ted Cruz inching up into third place with 9%, followed by Florida Senator Marco Rubio with 8%. Businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush follow at 6% each. Former Governor Mike Huckabee has also slipped considerably since the summer, from 8% in August to just 2% today Republican Nomination for President (Among Republican primary voters) Now 9/2015 8/2015 Donald Trump 27% 27% 24% Ben Carson Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Jeb Bush Carly Fiorina 6 4 * Rand Paul Chris Christie Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rick Santorum Bobby Jindal * * 2 George Pataki * * 1 Lindsey Graham -- * * Jim Gilmore Don t know *Less than 0.5% 1

2 When Republican voters are asked who would be their second choice for the nomination, Ben Carson (20%) and Marco Rubio (18%) are the most mentioned candidates. Among Trump supporters, Carson is the top second choice, far ahead of any other candidate. Seven in ten Republican primary voters would support Trump if he became the party s eventual nominee, though many would have reservations. 29% would support Trump enthusiastically, while 42% would support him with reservations, and another 8% would only support him because he is the party s nominee. One in five Republican primary voters would not support Trump if he became the nominee. If Trump is Republican Nominee, Would You (among Republican primary voters) Total Trump Support Other Voters Supporters Candidate Support him enthusiastically 29% 67% 18% Support him with reservations Support because he s the nominee Would not support him 19 * 25 *Less than 0.5% Trump continues to be viewed as the most electable candidate in a general election. 35% say Trump has the best chance of winning in November 2016, followed by Ben Carson (18%). Views of the Candidates Best Chance of Winning in November 2016 (among Republican primary voters) Now 9/2015 8/2015 Donald Trump 35% 39% 26% Ben Carson Marco Rubio Jeb Bush Carly Fiorina 7 * -- Ted Cruz (Table has been truncated. Not all candidates are listed) Carson, Trump, Rubio, and Fiorina are all viewed more favorably than unfavorably among Republican primary voters. At 62%, favorable views of Ben Carson are the highest of this group, only 7% are unfavorable. 53% have a favorable view of Donald Trump, and 50% have a positive assessment of Marco Rubio. While Trump s unfavorable rating is more than twice that of either Rubio or Fiorina, many don t have an opinion of the latter two candidates. Former Governor Jeb Bush is now viewed more unfavorably (38%) than favorably (32%) by Republican primary voters. 2

3 Views of the Republican Candidates (Among Republican Primary Voters) Favorable Not Favorable Undecided/haven t heard Ben Carson 62% 7 30 Donald Trump 53% Marco Rubio 50% Carly Fiorina 45% Jeb Bush 32% While the favorable ratings of both Donald Trump and Marco Rubio have risen slightly since August among Republican primary voters, Bush s favorable rating has dropped 11 points. Favorable Views of the Republican Candidates (Among Republican Primary Voters) Now 8/2015 Donald Trump 53% 47% Marco Rubio 50% 46% Jeb Bush 32% 43% These Republican candidates are viewed less positively among all registered voters nationwide. Carson has the highest favorable rating among this broader group of voters, and Fiorina is viewed more favorably than not. Voters divide in their views of Rubio. Many voters overall don t have an opinion of these three contenders. 53% of registered voters overall have an unfavorable opinion of Trump the highest of the Republicans asked about. Bush is also viewed negatively. Views of Republican Candidates (among registered voters) Favorable Not favorable Undecided/Haven t heard Ben Carson 34% Donald Trump 28% Marco Rubio 27% Carly Fiorina 26% Jeb Bush 20% Assessing the Outsiders on the Issues More Republican primary voters are very confident in Trump than in Carson or Fiorina to handle the economy and immigration. Few Republican primary voters are very confident in the ability of any of the three to handle an international crisis. Still, most Republican primary voters have at least some confidence in the abilities of all three candidates to handle these issues. 3

4 Confident in These Candidates on the Issues (Among Republican Primary Voters) Trump Carson Fiorina Economic decisions Very 50% 31% 27% Somewhat Not too/not at all Don t know Decisions on illegal immigration Very 44% 33% 15% Somewhat Not too/not at all Don t know * Dealing with an international crisis Very 23% 23% 16% Somewhat Not too/not at all Don t know Candidate Qualities Republican primary voters choose honesty (39%) as the most important quality in their choice of a candidate, though nearly as many pick being a strong leader (36%). Far fewer choose caring about people like them (13%), having the right experience (8%), or being able to win the general election in November (2%) as most important. Most Important Candidate Quality in Deciding Vote for Nomination (Among Republican Primary Voters) Is honest and trustworthy 39% Is a strong leader 36 Cares about people like me 13 Has the right experience 8 Can win a general election 2 Ben Carson is the top choice of Republican primary voters who most value honesty, while Donald Trump is the top choice of those who value strong leadership. Most Republican primary voters give Trump, Carson, and Fiorina high marks on many of these candidate qualities, but Ben Carson is perceived as the most honest: 81% think he is honest and trustworthy, compared to 60% for Fiorina and 53% for Trump. 39% do not think Trump is honest and trustworthy, far more than either Carson or Fiorina. Candidate Qualities: Honest and Trustworthy (Among Republican primary voters) Trump Carson Fiorina Yes 53% 81% 60% No Don t know

5 Ben Carson is also seen as the candidate who most cares about people like them. 56% think he cares a lot, more than twice as many as say the same for Trump or Fiorina. Candidate Qualities: Cares about People Like You (Among Republican primary voters) Trump Carson Fiorina A lot 26% 56% 24% Some Not much/not at all Don t know But Donald Trump is seen as the strongest leader: 84% think Trump has strong qualities of leadership, compared to 72% for Carson and 60% for Fiorina. Candidate Qualities: Strong Leadership (Among Republican primary voters) Trump Carson Fiorina Yes 84% 72% 60% No Don t know Most think both Trump (59%) and Carson (53%) have the right kind of experience to be president, though they are less sure of Fiorina (43%). Candidate Qualities: Experience (Among Republican primary voters) Trump Carson Fiorina Yes 59% 53% 43% No Don t know As for what the right kind of experience is, most Republican primary voters think it s more important for the next President to have experience in the private sector (55%) than in politics or government (10%), though 34% say it doesn t matter. Type of Experience for Next President (Among Republican primary voters) Business and the private sector 55% Politics and government 10 Doesn t matter 34 5

6 More Voters are Tuning In Voters are increasingly turning their attention to the presidential campaign. 42% now say they are paying a lot of attention, up from 36% last month. More are paying a lot of attention now, compared to this point in time in the last two presidential election cycles. Paying Attention to the 2016 Presidential Campaign (among registered voters) Now 9/ / /2007 A lot 42% 36% 31% 24% Some Not much None at all In addition, most voters find this campaign interesting. Seven in 10 say they do, including majorities of Republicans, Democrats and independents. According to an October 2011 Pew Poll, just 40% of voters described the presidential campaign as interesting. How Would You Describe the 2016 Presidential Campaign? (among registered voters) Now 10/2011* Interesting 71% 40% Dull *Pew Research Poll When voters are asked in an open-ended question, which one issue they would like to hear the presidential candidates discuss, the economy and jobs (24%) is the top answer, followed by immigration (11%), and foreign policy (10%). Health care and guns are also mentioned. The economy and jobs are the top priority for voters across party lines. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to want the candidates to talk about immigration. Issue You Most Want to Hear the Candidates Discuss (among registered voters) Total Reps Dems Inds Economy and jobs 24% 26% 25% 21% Immigration Foreign policy Health care Guns/laws/2 nd amendment This poll was conducted by telephone October 4-8, 2015 among a random sample of 1,251 adults nationwide, including 1,038 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. 6

7 The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. The margin of error for the sample of 419 Republican primary voters is 5 percentage points. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. 7

8 CBS NEWS POLL Republican Race: Trump Still Leads October 4-8, 2015 Q12. How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** Total Rep Dem Ind Sep15a1 % % % % % A lot Some Not much No attention so far Don't know/no answer * * * 1 1 Q12a. How would you describe the 2016 presidential election campaign so far--is it interesting to you, or would you say it is dull? Interesting Dull Neither (Vol.) Don't know/no answer Q13. Which ONE issue would you most like to hear the candidates for president discuss during the 2016 presidential campaign? Economy & jobs Immigration/illegal immigrants Foreign policy/misc. foreign affairs Health care Guns/2nd amendment/ gun laws Defense/military/national security Poverty/ government programs for 2 * 2 2 Environment/global warming Miscellaneous social issues Education/school loans Foreign aid/ isolationist attitudes Miscellaneous government issues Budget/deficit 2 2 * 5 Taxes/IRS/cut/raise taxes Income gap 2 * 2 2 Other Don't know/no answer *Less than 0.5% 8

9 Q14. Next year, are you more likely to vote in a Republican presidential primary or caucus, or a Democratic presidential primary or caucus or aren't you likely to vote in a primary or caucus at all? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** Total Rep Dem Ind Sep15a1 % % % % % Republican primary Democratic primary Not likely to vote Never vote (Vol.) * * Don't know/no answer Q15. Which one of these candidates would you like to see the Republican Party nominate for President in 2016? REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Sep15a1 % % Donald Trump Ben Carson Ted Cruz 9 5 Marco Rubio 8 6 Jeb Bush 6 6 Carly Fiorina 6 4 Rand Paul 4 3 Chris Christie 3 1 Mike Huckabee 2 6 John Kasich 2 3 Rick Santorum 1 1 Bobby Jindal * * George Pataki * * Lindsey Graham - * Jim Gilmore - - Someone else (vol.) - 3 None of them (vol.) 2 4 Don't know/no answer 11 9 *Less than 0.5% 9

10 Q16. Who would be your second choice for the Republican nomination for president? REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS WITH A CHOICE IN q15 Sep15a1 % % Ben Carson Marco Rubio 18 7 Carly Fiorina 13 6 Donald Trump Jeb Bush 7 9 Ted Cruz 6 12 Mike Huckabee 6 4 Chris Christie 5 4 Rand Paul 2 3 Lindsey Graham 1 * John Kasich 1 2 Bobby Jindal * 1 George Pataki * * Rick Santorum 1 - Jim Gilmore - 1 Someone else (vol.) * 7 None of them (vol.) 4 5 Don't know/no answer 4 8 Q17. Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2016, which one of these Republican presidential candidates do you think has the best chance of winning the general election in November 2016? REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Sep15a1 Donald Trump Ben Carson Marco Rubio 11 5 Jeb Bush Carly Fiorina 7 * Ted Cruz 5 4 Chris Christie 2 2 Rand Paul 2 1 John Kasich 1 2 Lindsey Graham * * Mike Huckabee * 1 George Pataki * * Rick Santorum * * Jim Gilmore * - Bobby Jindal - - Someone else (vol.) - 3 None of them (vol.) 1 * Don't know/no answer

11 Q18. If Donald Trump became the 2016 Republican nominee for President, would you enthusiastically support him, support him but with reservations, support him only because he is the Republican Party nominee, or not support him? REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Sep15a1 % % Enthusiastically support Support with reservations Support only because nominee 8 12 No support Don't know/no answer 1 2 Q27. We'd like to get your opinion of some public figures. For each of the following people, please say whether your opinion is favorable, not favorable, undecided, or whether you haven't heard enough about him or her yet to have an opinion. a. Jeb Bush ************ REGISTERED VOTERS ************ Total Rep Dem Ind Rep. Primary Voters Jul15e % % % % % % Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Don't know/no answer 1 * 1 2 * 1 b. Marco Rubio Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Don't know/no answer * 3 c. Donald Trump Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Don't know/no answer * 1 11

12 d. Ben Carson ************ REGISTERED VOTERS ************ Total Rep Dem Ind Rep. Primary Voters % % % % % Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Don't know/no answer e. Carly Fiorina Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Don't know/no answer Q27aa. Which one of these candidate qualities is most important to you in deciding who to support for the Democratic/Republican nomination for president in 2016? Is honest and trustworthy 39 Is a strong leader 36 Cares about people like me 13 Has the right experience 8 Can win a general election 2 Don't know/no answer 1 Q21. Would you prefer the next president to be someone whose experience has been mostly in politics and government, or someone whose experience has been mostly in the business or private sector, or doesn't it matter to you? Mostly business or private sector Mostly politics & government Doesn't matter Don't know/no answer

13 Q34. How confident are you in Donald Trump s ability to make the right decisions about the economy--are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Jul15e % % Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident 8 9 Not at all confident 8 19 Don't know/no answer 1 1 Q35. How confident are you in Donald Trump s ability to handle an international crisis-are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident 23 Somewhat confident 39 Not too confident 18 Not at all confident 20 Don't know/no answer 1 Q35a. How confident are you in Donald Trump s ability to make the right decisions about illegal immigration--are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident 13 9 Not at all confident Don't know/no answer * 2 Q36. How confident are you in Ben Carson s ability to make the right decisions about the economy--are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident 31 Somewhat confident 40 Not too confident 14 Not at all confident 7 Don't know/no answer 9 13

14 Q37. How confident are you in Ben Carson s ability to handle an international crisis-are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS % Very confident 23 Somewhat confident 42 Not too confident 16 Not at all confident 9 Don't know/no answer 11 Q37a. How confident are you in Ben Carson s ability to make the right decisions about illegal immigration--are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident 33 Somewhat confident 34 Not too confident 17 Not at all confident 5 Don't know/no answer 11 Q38. How confident are you in Carly Fiorina s ability to make the right decisions about the economy--are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident 27 Somewhat confident 30 Not too confident 18 Not at all confident 11 Don't know/no answer 14 Q39. How confident are you in Carly Fiorina s ability to handle an international crisis-are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident 16 Somewhat confident 36 Not too confident 19 Not at all confident 14 Don't know/no answer 14 Q39a. How confident are you in Carly Fiorina s ability to make the right decisions about illegal immigration--are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? Very confident 15 Somewhat confident 38 Not too confident 18 Not at all confident 12 Don't know/no answer 16 14

15 Q40. Do you think Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy, or not? ************ REGISTERED VOTERS ************ Total Rep Dem Ind Rep. Primary Voters Sep15a1 % % % % % % Honest and trustworthy Not honest and trustworthy Don't know/no answer Q41. How much do you think Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like yourself--a lot, some, not much, or not at all? A lot Some Not much Not at all Don't know/no answer Q42. Do you think Donald Trump has the right kind of experience to be a good president, or not? Yes No Don't know/no answer Q43. Do you think Donald Trump has strong qualities of leadership, or not? Yes, has No, does not have Don't know/no answer Q44. Do you think Ben Carson is honest and trustworthy, or not? Honest and trustworthy Not honest and trustworthy Don't know/no answer Q45. How much do you think Ben Carson cares about the needs and problems of people like yourself--a lot, some, not much, or not at all? A lot Some Not much Not at all Don't know/no answer

16 Q46. Do you think Ben Carson has the right kind of experience to be a good president, or not? ************ REGISTERED VOTERS ************ Total Rep Dem Ind Rep. Primary Voters % % % % % Yes No Don't know/no answer Q47. Do you think Ben Carson has strong qualities of leadership, or not? Sep15a1 % Yes, has No, does not have Don't know/no answer Q48. Do you think Carly Fiorina is honest and trustworthy, or not? Honest and trustworthy Not honest and trustworthy Don't know/no answer Q49. How much do you think Carly Fiorina cares about the needs and problems of people like yourself--a lot, some, not much, or not at all? A lot Some Not much Not at all Don't know/no answer Q50. Do you think Carly Fiorina has the right kind of experience to be a good president, or not? Yes No Don't know/no answer Q52. Do you think Carly Fiorina has strong qualities of leadership, or not? Yes, has No, does not have Don't know/no answer

17 Unweighted Total Respondents 1,251 Weighted Total Registered Voters 1, Registered Voters - Republicans Registered Voters - Democrats Registered Voters - independents Republican Primary voters