Health Care and 2008 Elections

Transcription

1 Health Care and 2008 Elections Alliance for Health Reform y 10, 2007 Drew Altman, Ph.D. President and Chief Executive Officer Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation

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3 Chart 1 Health Care Worries in Context with Other Worries Percent saying they are very worried about each of the following Your income not keeping up with rising prices 45% Having to pay more for health care or insurance 41% Not being able to pay your rent or mortgage 25% Being the victim of a terrorist attack 25% Losing your job (among employed) 19% Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Kaiser Health Tracking Poll: Election 2008 (conducted May 31-June 5, 2007)

4 Chart 2 Most Important Issue to Vote: 2004 Exit Polls National Election Pool LA Times (up to 2 responses) Moral values 22% Moral/Ethical values 40% Economy/Jobs 20% Jobs/Economy 33% Terrorism 19% Terrorism/ Homeland security 29% Iraq 15% Situation in Iraq 16% Health care 8% Education 15% Taxes 5% Social issues like abortion, gay marriage 15% Education 4% Taxes 9% Health care 9% Foreign affairs 5% Social Security 5% Medicare/Rx drugs 3% Source: 2004 Presidential election exit polls by Edison/Mitofsky for the National Election Pool; and Los Angeles Times

5 Chart 3 List of Issues on November 2006 Exit Polls Iraq Terrorism Economy Immigration reform Traditional values Corruption/Ethics Saddam Hussein verdict

6 Chart 4 Priorities for the Government and Presidential Candidates Today Thinking about the campaign for the presidential election in 2008, what two issues would you most like to hear the presidential candidates talk about? (open-ended) What do you think is the most important problem for the government to address? Is there another problem you think is almost as important? (open-ended) Iraq 43% 43% Health care 21% 28% Immigration 18% 12% Economy 13% 11% Gas prices/ Energy 12% 14% Terrorism/ Nat l security 7% 9% Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Kaiser Health Tracking Poll: Election 2008 (conducted May 31-June 5, 2007)

7 Chart 5 Ranking of Health Care as an Issue in National Polls April through June 2007 Dates 6/8-11 5/31-6/5 5/ / / / / / /9-12 3/29-4/1 Org. #1 Issue Health care rank NBC/ WSJ KFF CBS/ NYT NPR Gallup Harris NBC/ WSJ Gallup/ USA Today CBS News Diageo/ Hotline Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Note: includes open-ended and list-style questions about priorities for government to address, issues for candidates to discuss, most important problem facing the nation, and most important issue to your vote

8 Chart 6 Priorities for the Presidential Candidates by Party Thinking about the campaign for the presidential election in 2008, what two issues would you most like to hear the presidential candidates talk about? (open-ended) Republicans Democrats Independents Iraq 43% 52% 37% Health care 18% 21% 24% Immigration 20% 14% 20% Economy 12% 18% 10% Gas prices/ Energy 12% 11% 13% Terrorism/ Nat l security 16% 2% 6% Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Kaiser Health Tracking Poll: Election 2008 (conducted May 31-June 5, 2007)

9 Chart 7 Factors Moving Health up the National Agenda The pacesetting states (esp. MA and CA) Strange bedfellows with serious proposals President Bush s State of the Union proposal Health care issues in the Congress Presidential candidates talking about health

10 Chart 8 Kaiser Poll of Massachusetts Residents June 2007 SUPPORT FOR THE NEW LAW (among those who have heard about the law) SUPPORT FOR INDIVIDUAL MANDATE (among total) Support 67% Oppose 16% Support 57% Oppose 36% 16% No opinion 7% No opinion Source: Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard School of Public Health/BCBS of Mass. Foundation Massachusetts Health Reform Tracking Survey (conducted May 29-June 10, 2007)

11 Chart 9 To Have a Chance in 2009 Reform efforts in key states cannot fail Businesses must be for real this time There must be a big debate about health in the presidential campaign: a mandate for reform A compromise on a centrist plan

12 Chart 10 What to Look For: Take One Percent naming health care one of two most important issues for government to address 60% 50% 55% Clinton Health Care Reform Debate 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Note: "Don't know" responses were included in the base when percentages were calculated. Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal; Harris Polls

13 Chart 11 What to Look For: Take Two Issues that Mattered Most to Voters in the 1991 Pennsylvania Senate Race National health insurance 39% 64% Taxes 29% 27% Wofford-D Recession/ loss of job 15% 27% Thornburgh-R Candidate s record/ reputation 7% 24% Note: Top four answers listed; total exceeds 100% because more than one answer was given. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard Pennsylvania Senate Race, November 5-6, 1991