Colorado s 6th District: Democrats Try to Crack the Coffman Code

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1 This issue brought to you by June 1, 2018 Volume 2, No. 11 Colorado s 6th District: Democrats Try to Crack the Coffman Code By Leah Askarinam A handful of Republican House incumbents represent districts that, on the surface, should be firmly in the Democratic column. But despite a series of factors that have created difficult bids for re-election including redistricting decisions that unfavorably altered the partisanship of the constituency, demographic change that has translated into more Democratic votes, and well-funded challengers with national support these incumbents have survived. Mike Coffman of Colorado is one of them. When discussing these weathered politicians who are consistently prepared for tough elections, consultants across the political spectrum point to Reps. Barbara Comstock of Virginia s 10th District, Will Hurd of Texas 23rd, Carlos Curbelo of Florida s 26th, and Coffman in the 6th. Given Democrats strengthening hold on the country s urban centers, it shouldn t be surprising that the Republican representatives who have won election in the DC suburbs or in Miami-Dade County are particularly skilled politicians. In Colorado, Coffman represents a 6th District that includes Aurora the third most populous city in The Centennial State and that has voted for Democrats in the last three presidential elections. Coffman s success is partly a testament to his work ethic. Some GOP House Members who haven t faced competitive races before are likely to be caught off guard by a wave this cycle. That won t be the case for Coffman, who will take his race seriously. But there are also factors beyond his control. In the past, Coffman has managed to distance himself from the national Republican party and maintain strong relationships with communities that typically vote Democratic, including nonwhite and immigrant voters and voters have been willing to split their tickets. But with a polarizing Republican president in the White House who s particularly detested in urban areas, it s possible that the party affiliation of these Republican incumbents will trump voters personal affinity for an individual candidate. If that happens, GOP House members who Continued on page House Ratings CA 39 (Open; Royce, R) Toss-Up (9R, 2D) MN 8 (Open; Nolan, DFL) CA 49 (Open; Issa, R) PA 17 (Rothfus, R/Lamb, D) IA 1 (Blum,R) TX 23 (Hurd, R) MI 11 (Open; Trott, R) VA 10 (Comstock, R) MN 1 (Open; Walz, DFL) WA 8 (Open; Reichert, R) MN 2 (Lewis, R) Tilt Democratic (3D, 4R) Tilt Republican (13R) AZ 1 (O Halleran, D) CA 10 (Denham, R) NY 19 (Faso, R) AZ 2 (Open; McSally, R) CA 25 (Knight, R) NY 22 (Tenney, R) NH 1 (Open; Shea-Porter, D) CA 48 (Rohrabacher, R) OH 12 (Vacant, R) NJ 2 (Open; LoBiondo, R) CO 6 (Coffman, R) PA 1 (Fitzpatrick, R) NJ 11 (Open; Frelinghuysen, R) FL 26 (Curbelo, R) TX 7 (Culberson, R) NV 3 (Open; Rosen, D) IL 6 (Roskam, R) PA 7 (Vacant; Dent, R) NE 2 (Bacon, R) NJ 7 (Lance, R) Lean Democratic (2D, 1R) Lean Republican (12R) FL 7 (Murphy, D) CA 45 (Walters, R) MI 8 (Bishop, R) FL 27 (Open; Ros-Lehtinen, R) IL 12 (Bost, R) MN 3 (Paulsen, R) NJ 5 (Gottheimer, D) KS 2 (Open; Jenkins, R) UT 4 (Love, R) KS 3 (Yoder, R) VA 7 (Brat, R) KY 6 (Barr, R) WI 1 (Open; Ryan, R) ME 2 (Poliquin, R) NM 2 (Open; Pearce, R) Likely Democratic (3D, 2R) Likely Republican (27R) MN 7 (Peterson, DFL) AR 2 (Hill, R) NC 13 (Budd, R) NV 4 (Open; Kihuen, D) AZ 8 (Lesko, R) NJ 3 (MacArthur, R) PA 5 (Vacant; Meehan, R) CA 4 (McClintock, R) NY 11 Donovan, R) PA 6 (Open; Costello, R) CA 21 (Valadao, R) NY 24 (Katko, R) PA 8 (Cartwright, D) CA 50 (Hunter, R) OH 1 (Chabot, R) GA 6 (Handel, R) OH 14 (Smith, R) GA 7 (Woodall, R) PA 10 (Perry, R) IL 13 (Davis, R) TX 21 (Smith, R) IN 2 (Walorski, R) TX 32 (Sessions, R) IA 3 (Young, R) VA 2 (Taylor, R) MI 6 (Upton, R) VA 5 (Open; MI 7 (Walberg,R) Garrett, R) MT A-L (Gianforte, R) WV 3 (Open; NC 9 (Open; Jenkins, R) Pittenger, R) WA 5 (McMorris Rodgers, R) GOP DEM 115th Congress Currently Solid Competitive Needed for majority 218 # moved benefiting Democrats, * moved benefiting Republicans Takeovers in Italics

2 Eight States That Will Decide the Senate Majority By Nathan L. Gonzales There are at least 14 competitive Senate races around the country, but knowing the outcome in just eight of the hottest contests will be all the evidence you need in figuring out whether Democrats will retake the majority this fall. On paper, a majority might look firmly in reach for Democrats because they need to gain just two seats. But many of the mostcompetitive races are being hosted by Republican-leaning states, and Democrats need to come close to running the table in order to make Sen. Chuck Schumer the next majority leader. Each party has a slate of second- and third-tier opportunities including Montana, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania for Republicans, and Texas, Mississippi and Nebraska for Democrats. But much of the time, money and energy are likely to be spent on eight top-tier races. And based on their partisan breakdown, Democrats likely need to win seven of those eight for a majority. That s why Democrats have a chance at the majority, but it s not the most likely scenario at this point. Arizona. GOP Sen. Jeff Flake s open seat is one of Democrats best takeover opportunities. The likely Democratic nominee is Rep. Kyrsten Sinema while Rep. Martha McSally, former state Sen. Kelli Ward, and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio are facing off in the Aug. 28 Republican primary. Rating: Toss-up. Florida. President Donald Trump carried the Sunshine State by a little more than 1 percentage point, but GOP Gov. Rick Scott s name I.D. and personal money are putting plenty of pressure on Sen. Bill Nelson and the Democrats. The senator simply won t be able to raise enough money to keep pace with Scott s checkbook, so national Democrats are going to have to decide how much to sink into one expensive race. Rating: Toss-up. Indiana. The stage is set between Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly and former state Rep. Mike Braun in a state Trump carried by 19 points. Braun won a competitive GOP primary with clever advertising and an outsider message against two politicians. This race will likely be decided by whether Braun can do the same against Donnelly and whether the senator can cultivate his independent image. Rating: Toss-Up. Missouri. Republicans in the Show Me State are in disarray because of GOP Gov. Eric Greitens various scandals and resignation, and some Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call Republicans don t believe state Attorney General Josh Hawley is running a great campaign against Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill. But despite all the GOP craziness, the senator hasn t moderated her voting record, hasn t pulled away in the race and is still vulnerable. Rating: Toss-up. Nevada. Sen. Dean Heller represents a state Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 and is the most vulnerable Republican senator in the country. He s also likely to face Democratic Rep. Jackie Rosen, who has a limited voting record for Republicans to attack since she s only in her first term. Rating: Toss-up. North Dakota. Republicans are bullish on their chances against Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, even though she s bound to run a great campaign free of major mistakes. Rep. Kevin Cramer is the likely nominee and has won statewide multiple times, but defeating Heitkamp is an entirely different and more difficult task. Rating: Toss-up. Tennessee. Trump won The Volunteer State by 26 points, but former Gov. Phil Bredesen gives Democrats a quality nominee who has won statewide twice. Plus, retiring GOP Sen. Bob Corker appears determined to make sure Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn doesn t win his open seat. The state has shifted to the right since Bredesen was elected to state office Marsha Blackburn and the President appears to be engaged in the race, but this will take some work by Republicans. Rating: Lean Republican. West Virginia. State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey won a competitive Republican primary, giving the GOP a more credible challenger to Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin than they had six years ago. Republicans have to convince more GOP voters that Manchin doesn t deserve re-election or this race is over before it started. But even recent Democratic polls show Manchin has a low ceiling. Rating: Toss-up. Stuart Rothenberg Senior Editor facebook.com/insideelections Nathan L. Gonzales Editor & Publisher Leah Askarinam Reporter & Analyst Nathaniel Rakich Contributing Analyst nathaniel@insideelections.com Robert Yoon Contributing Reporter & Analyst robert@insideelections.com Will Taylor Production Artist will@insideelections.com 840 First Street NE, 3rd Floor Washington, DC 20002, Copyright 2018, Inside Elections LLC. All rights reserved. Annual subscription (24 issues/year): Individual - $249 + sales tax Silver License - $2,500 (tax included) Gold License - $5,000 (tax included) 2 June 1, 2018 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research

3 New Mexico s 2nd District Election Results Open; Steve Pearce, R, running for governor. June 5 primaries. Rating: Lean Republican Justice of the Supreme Court = SOS; Judge of the Court of Appeals = JCA; Commissioner of Public Lands = CPL Candidate Conversations Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D) Illinois 13th District Rating: Likely Republican Interview Date: May 11, 2018 Date of Birth: June 21, 1971; Springfield, Illinois Education: Univ. of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (1993) Elected Office: None; First run for office Current Outlook: Londrigan, former director of alumni affairs at Univ. of Illinois-Springfield, small business woman and a former fundraiser for Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin, won the Democratic nomination with some help from the senator and EMILY s List. Trump won the central Illinois district with nearly 50 percent in 2016, and GOP Rep. Rodney Davis is considered a hard-working incumbent. But the race could get more competitive and the district is covered by cheap media markets. Evaluation: Londrigan has a history of being politically active, volunteering for candidates and fundraising for her husband s state senate campaign and Durbin, but she said her tipping point for becoming a candidate was Davis s vote for the American Health Care Act. Londrigan believes that health care is the top issue for voters in her district, and while she believes that the Democratic Party left Trump voters behind, she also says she ll stand up to the President s racist and misogynistic comments. Londrigan is a first-time candidate but has been around politics enough to know the drill. She laid out a county-by-county path to victory while also telling a compelling personal story about her son s battle with a tick-borne illness that nearly killed him, highlighting the importance of affordable health care. Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call Gretchen Driskell (D) Michigan s 7th District Rating: Likely Republican Interview Date: May 10, 2018 Date of Birth: Oct. 1, 1958; New York, N.Y. Education: Lynchburg College (1980); George Washington University (MBA 1987) Elected Office: Saline City Council (former, ); Saline Mayor (former, ); state House (former, ); th District nominee Current Outlook: GOP Rep. Tim Walberg is a perennial Democratic target but consistently wins. Driskell (who lost to Walberg by 15 points in 2016) is running again and could have the wind at her back, although President Donald Trump won the district by 17 points. Evaluation: Driskell feels that there s more on-the-ground activism now than when she ran for Congress last cycle, though she doesn t personally consider herself part of The Resistance. She sympathized with Trump supporters in her district who voted for change last cycle, pointing to their defensible frustration with Washington DC, and supports the Trump s steel tariffs. But Driskell also believes that the President has failed to fix health care, the economy, and the national deficit. Driskell also believes that she ll have an easier time deflecting attacks about being tied to Nancy Pelosi and Hillary Clinton this time around given that she s no longer serving in the state House and has more time to be on the campaign trail. She s personally meeting with independents and moderates to deliver her message of political independence. Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call June 1,

4 Continued from page 1 represent the country s largest urban centers could be wiped off the map in November. If that doesn t happen, Democrats have likely missed their shot at the majority. The Lay Of The Land Republicans know that without Coffman, their hold on the 6th District is tenuous. Hillary Clinton carried the district percent in 2016, and Barack Obama carried the district twice, according to Daily Kos Elections. The 6th District has become increasingly Democratic since Obama first carried it in After the 2010 Census, the state Supreme Court agreed with Democrats to place all of Aurora which now has a population of 365,000 in a single congressional district. Before 2012, the city had consistently been divided among multiple districts. While once relatively conservative, Aurora has become more racially diverse and more Democratic. In July 2017, the city s non-hispanic white population was just 46 percent, and 20 percent of Aurora is foreign-born, according to the Census American Community survey. As Colorado s Hispanic population has increased, so has Aurora s, and the city also includes Taiwanese, Liberian, Indian, and Chinese communities. Buckley Air Force base is the biggest employer in the district. The southern part of the district, Douglas County, is solidly Republican, the heart of the pre-2012 district. Douglas County includes Highlands Ranch, often referred to as a bubble of the Denver suburbs. But the bulk of the district s population is in Arapahoe County. Within the district, Trump carried Douglas County percent, while Clinton carried Arapahoe percent, according to Daily Kos Elections. The Democrats Jason Crow is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. He, like Coffman, is a veteran, having served in the Army s 82nd Airborne Division and earned a Bronze Star for his service in the invasion of Iraq. Crow, who graduated from Univ. of Wisconsin, left the service in 2006, after serving in Iraq and Afghanistan, to attend law school at Univ. of Colorado. Crow is a partner at a Denver law firm and has political experience, including working with Democratic Sen. Mark Udall on veterans affairs, advising Obama s 2012 campaign, and delivering a speech at the 2012 Democratic National Convention supporting the repeal of Don t Ask, Don t Tell. Crow s campaign team includes Dixon Davis for media, Global Strategy Group for polling, and direct mail consultant Ed Peavy of Mission Control. Levi Tillemann, an author and former advisor for President Obama s Energy Department, is also running in the Democratic primary. Tillemann is the grandson of former California Rep. Tom Lantos and former Colorado Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dick. The Democratic Primary Democratic strategists say they d be shocked if Tillemann ends up winning the nomination on June 26. Tillemann, who had $92,000 cash on hand on March 31, trails Crow ($884,000) in fundraising. Plus, Crow has raked in high-profile endorsements, including Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton, VoteVets, former Arizona Rep. Gabby Giffords, and NARAL Colorado s 6th Congressional District Pro-Choice America. In April, Tillemann released a secretly-recorded conversation with Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer to The Intercept, an online news outlet, in an effort to prove that D.C. Democrats aimed to push progressives out of the party. In the recording, the No. 2 House Democrat pressured Tillemann to leave the race, explaining that he and the DCCC supported Crow. One Democratic source, who had expressed concern about the party intervening in primaries as a general practice, didn t find Tillemann s effort convincing or effective. Plus, taking on Democratic leadership by leaking phone calls might be a good primary message but a risky longterm move going into a general election, potentially isolating national donors and influencers. In May, Tillemann said he d drop out of the race if a Public Policy Polling survey his campaign conducted showed Crow to be the only candidate in this race who could defeat Coffman. When the results came out, Tillemann decided to stay in the race, explaining he had a 5-point lead over Coffman but refused to release the specific results and details of the poll. One Democrat said that most people think Tillemann s chances are over, and another, who agreed, believes he s getting more press attention than grassroots support. Kara Eastman s narrow victory over former Rep. Brad Ashford in the recent Democratic primary in Nebraska s 2nd District is a good reminder to never dismiss a specific outcome. But Eastman gained traction through a television ad, according to one Democrat. Crow is currently on television with a campaign ad while Tillemann is not. This year, every voter in the district will receive a mail-in ballot, including unaffiliated voters. Registered Democrats and Republicans will receive their respective party ballot, while unaffiliated voters will receive both party ballots (unless they request one particular party s ballot ahead of time). The ease of voting could boost turnout but also creates the possibility that voters will mistakenly fill out both, which would invalidate their ballot entirely. The GOP Incumbent Despite endeavors in politics and in the private sector, Coffman has repeatedly returned to military service. Coffman grew up in the district, Continued on page 5 4 June 1, 2018 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research

5 Continued from page 4 attending Aurora Central High School until his junior year, when he enlisted in the Army. He attended the Univ. of Colorado on the GI Bill, and transferred to the Marines after graduating in He then returned to Colorado to start a property management company in Aurora and won election to the state House twice, but returned to active duty during the Gulf War. In 1994, he retired from active duty and was elected to the state Senate. In 1998, he was elected state treasurer but resigned in 2005 to serve in Iraq for an assignment with the Marine Corps. Upon returning to Colorado, Coffman was re-appointed to his position as state treasurer and ran successfully for secretary of state in He won election to the U.S. House in Democrats and Republicans agree that Coffman is a hard worker who won t sleep through this race. A Republican pointed to a 15-second ad from his 2016 campaign about the congressman s 500 daily pushups, along with growing up in a military family that valued hard work. Coffman is also known for maintaining strong connections with the district s Hispanic community. Although not a native speaker, Coffman has participated in Spanish-language debates in previous races. In Congress, Coffman sits on the Veterans Affairs and Armed Services committees. His campaign team includes pollster Dave Sackett of Tarrance Group, general consultant Tyler Sandberg of EIS Solutions, Majority Strategies for direct mail, and Ascent Media (including former NRCC Executive Director Liesl Hickey) for media. The General Election Republicans are hoping that the Democratic primary will set the eventual nominee back, both in spending and by forcing Crow to the left. Either way, however, Republicans will attack Crow for his law career. Crow has also faced attacks involving his firm s lobbying wing, though Democrats maintain that Crow was never a lobbyist, and he was never involved in Holland & Hart s lobbying work. Tillemann s primary narrative plays into attacks that Crow will face for connections with the national party and Hillary Clinton. Republicans will also dig up opposition research, including past companies his firm has represented. Democrats are excited to have a veteran in the race, given Coffman s record of service. But Republicans are doubtful that Crow s service will inoculate him from attacks of being an establishment politician. They ll compare Crow s career in the private sector to Coffman s record of working in public office to help veterans, working on the Veterans Affairs Committee and on the Aurora VA. Democrats, meanwhile, can point to Crow s work on the Colorado Board of Veterans Affairs and his role in bringing the Denver Veterans Medical Center to Aurora. Coffman will likely have to highlight where he s parted from the GOP and President Trump in order to win unaffiliated voters. The congressman aired a TV ad last cycle about standing up to the winner of the presidential race. He has since called for the resignation of several White House officials, including former Communications Director Sean Spicer and former Veterans Affairs Secretary David Shulkin. But one Democratic source believes that Coffman s voting record doesn t match his campaign promise, something that will be brought up during the campaign. While Coffman voted against the final version of the House health care bill, for example, he supported the initial version. Democrats will highlight the congressman s 95 percent voting record with the President, using FiveThirtyEight.com s scoring, arguing that it doesn t indicate independence from the White House. While Coffman voted in favor of the GOP tax bill, he voted against the omnibus bill, and Republicans believe he s separated himself from the party in support for immigrants, internet regulations, and LGBTQ rights. One Republican noted that Colorado has a libertarian streak, and Coffman s rejection of tax increases fits that profile. In an example of all politics is local, Coffman also helped pass a resolution to investigate human rights violations by Ethiopia s government, which later released political prisoners and closed down prison camps. Coffman s efforts gained him support from the district s Ethiopian communities. Coffman was also the first House Republican to bring up a discharge petition to bring four immigration bills to the floor. Even so, one Democrat noted that no matter how he s positioned himself, Coffman will have to actively run against the President, noting that he was booed at a town hall after the mass shooting at Continued on page Senate Ratings Toss-Up Donnelly (D-Ind.) McCaskill (D-Mo.) Heitkamp (D-N.D.) Nelson (D-Fla.) Heller (R-Nev.) AZ Open (Flake, R) Manchin (D-W.Va.) Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican Baldwin (D-Wis.) Tester (D-Mont.) Lean Democratic Lean Republican Brown (D-Ohio) TN Open (Corker, R) Likely Democratic Likely Republican Casey (D-Pa.) Cruz (R-Texas) Smith (D-Minn.) Solid Democratic Solid Republican Cantwell (D-Wash.) Barrasso (R-Wyo.) Cardin (D-Md.) Fischer (R-Neb.) Carper (D-Del.) Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) Feinstein (D-Calif.) Wicker (R-Miss.) Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) UT Open (Hatch, R) Heinrich (D-N.M.) Hirono (D-Hawaii) Kaine (D-Va.) King (I-Maine) Klobuchar (D-Minn.) Menendez (D-N.J.) Murphy (D-Conn.) GOP DEM Sanders (I-Vt.) 115th Congress Stabenow (D-Mich.) Not up this cycle Warren (D-Mass.) Currently Solid 5 15 Whitehouse (D-R.I.) Competitive 4 11 Takeovers in Italics, # moved benefiting Democrats, * moved benefiting Republicans June 1,

6 Continued from page 5 Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School as an example of the national environment hurting Coffman. Crow, meanwhile, has focused on gun violence prevention, with endorsements from Giffords and Moms Demand Action. Democrats will also attack Coffman s record on abortion and women s reproductive rights. And, if health care premiums further increase, Coffman could suffer if voters decide a Democratic majority would more effectively solve the problem. Democrats believe that a combination of the national environment and a star candidate is a winning formula to take this district from Candidate Conversation Kathy Manning (D) North Carolina s 13th District Rating: Likely R Interview Date: March 14, 2018 Date of Birth: Dec. 3, 1956; Detroit, Mi. Education: Harvard (1978); Univ. of Michigan Law School (1981) Elected Office: None; first run for office Current Outlook: President Donald Trump received 53 percent in this North Carolina district, which stretches from northern Charlotte suburbs to southern Winston Salem-Greensboro suburbs. GOP Rep. Ted Budd was re-elected with 56 percent in a 2016 race that didn t receive national attention. This race will be more competitive. Manning is the likely Democratic nominee and has proven to be a strong fundraiser. She had $1 million in her campaign account on April 18 compared to $535,000 for the congressman. Manning has been a major donor to the Democratic Party and Democratic candidates, and will need to establish her own identity outside the national party, but she will run a credible campaign and could take advantage of any voter backlash against the President. Evaluation: Manning believes that she ll have success running as a moderate, pro-business Democrat who grew up in a house with a gun but also believes in universal background checks. In 2002, she started a law practice focused on immigration issues after moving to Greensboro with her husband, and got involved with United Way s Thriving at Three program to help prepare children for kindergarten. She noticed that manufacturing jobs at Levi s and Highpoint Furniture were moving to Asia, and she decided to start working with organizations to help with job training and mortgage support. She also noticed that people were flocking to Charlotte for jobs instead of Greensboro, so she helped build a new performing arts center to spur economic development. Manning s concerned about the House GOP s attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, considering the challenges she faced when her daughter s insurance company refused to pay for her daughter s prescriptions for a chronic illness. Like most Democratic candidates, Manning didn t say whether she would support Nancy Pelosi as leader of the Democratic Party next year, and could face criticism for her family s involvement in a controversial construction of a parking deck in downtown Greensboro. This race is quite a contrast between the wealthy Democratic candidate and the gun-store-owning Republican. Coffman. In the last three cycles, Coffman has benefitted from being the only veteran in the race. That won t happen this time if Crow is the candidate. (Coffman ran against a veteran in 2010, but the district has since been redrawn.) Republicans will attack Crow for only recently moving into the district, but he s lived near the district for years he moved about four blocks recently to officially move his residence into the 6th Congressional District. Coffman has overcome Democratic popularity before. He carried the district by almost the same margin as Hillary Clinton. One Republican noted that he overperforms across the district, with voters consistently seeing him in the community. A plurality of voters in the district are unaffiliated not Democratic which is where Coffman consistently wins. But this year, Democrats are seeing a swell in national and grassroots support, including local Indivisible groups. And Democrats believe that even if Coffman has personally cultivated strong relationships with minority groups in the district, his affiliation with a national party that is viewed as hostile to nonwhite voters and immigrants negates any personal affinity. If Trump weren t president, Coffman s path would be much easier. Crow has been working to make inroads with immigrant communities, with whom Coffman has been popular, but one Democrat said it s unclear if that support has sunk in. Crow will need some of their support to win, along with votes from unaffiliated voters who want to send a message to President Trump. He also has to rely on a good Democratic year and terrific turnout to make up the 8 points that Democrats lost the district by last cycle. Crow has run a stronger campaign than any previous Democratic candidate in the 6th District, according to one Democrat. While Morgan Carroll in 2016 was well known and experienced, her campaign didn t have the same broad organization as Crow s. Meanwhile, the 2014 candidate, Andrew Romanoff, largely ran on personality. One Democrat noted that John Flouridge, the only other veteran to face Coffman, had no chance of winning in 2010 given the lines of the district. But Crow, a veteran running after redistricting, has a much better chance. In 2012, after redistricting made the district more difficult for Republicans, Coffman won re-election by just 2 points. Since then, facing credible and well-funded candidates, he won re-election by 9 points in 2014 and 8 points in There are some specific areas and demographics to watch in this year s race. Crow will need to win some military retirees in central and south Aurora. Though he won t win Douglas County, the Democratic nominee needs to make a dent in the college-educated, white voters there. Carroll received only a third of Douglas County s votes in Crow will receive help from the national party since this seat is key to a Democratic majority. House Majority PAC, the go-to Democratic outside group for House races, reserved nearly $1.8 million in television ads in the Denver media market for the last three weeks of the campaign. But the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund reserved $4 million over the last two months of the race, so it will be an expensive fight. The Big Picture One of the items that will be tested in Coffman s race is whether personal connections with nonwhite voters, established over years, is enough to overcome the perception of the national party as hostile to immigrants. Comstock, for example, has strong connections with Korean- Continued on page 7 6 June 1, 2018 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research

7 Continued from page 6 American and Indian-American groups in her district. Curbelo represents a district that s only 17 percent non-hispanic white and Hurd s district is only one-quarter non-hispanic white. Republicans are banking on the idea that they ll be successful with religious voters and entrepreneurial voters of all nationalities and ethnicities. Republicans maintain that these incumbents have been resilient because they ve found ways to separate themselves from the national party, insulating them from future attacks from Democrats. And some strategists are less worried about the Coffmans of the world who represent marginal to Democratic-leaning districts and more worried about incumbents who won by 10 points last cycle but aren t raising money or running top-tier campaigns. Coffman ran digital ads in different languages in 2016, including Korean and Spanish, along with a 60-second TV ad that showcased the district s racial diversity. One Republican believes that if this district is a bellwether, Republicans are having a good year. Democrats have been bullish about their chances in the district for months. But without much public polling, it won t be clear until later in the race. For Democrats, the district could be a bellwether because Coffman has defeated credible opponents the last two cycles. If that changes in Colorado, it could change elsewhere, and be a sign that voters are making decisions based on the national mood rather than the individual GOP Member. But the issue of gun violence could separate the district from other suburbs, given the 2012 Aurora movie theater shooting and the shooting at Columbine High School in 1999 (which was located in the old 6th District). It s already been a PR issue for Coffman with an Aurora billboard criticizing him for accepting campaign contributions from the National Rifle Association. Another Republican believes that Democrats faith that running veterans is a winning strategy is, at a minimum, an oversimplification. While there s evidence that veterans have performed well in Democratic primaries Gina Ortiz Jones in Texas 23rd and Amy McGrath in Kentucky s 6th, for example it s yet to be seen if it s as effective in a general election. And each cycle, Democrats claim to have the perfect challenger to defeat Coffman, only to admit after the election that it wasn t the right candidate. That doesn t mean either party is expecting to win in a landslide. The district could get more difficult for Republicans every cycle, according to one GOP strategist, due to demographic change in the district. So even if Coffman does win again, it will be by less than his most recent margin of 9 points. The Bottom Line Democrats note that this cycle will be the first time Coffman runs for re-election while a Republican occupies the White House. Republicans note that Democrats always believe this district will be competitive but that Coffman consistently wins. Coffman ($1.2 million) is likely to face his toughest challenger to date in Crow, a fellow veteran with $884,000 in the bank at the end of March, assuming he wins the primary. But Coffman s facing more than a single candidate; rather, he s facing an entire national political environment. Even some Republicans believe that when Coffman leaves, the GOP won t get this district back anytime soon. But with Coffman running, Republicans are confident that he will pull a repeat of past cycles, even if it s closer than usual. This race will also get more national attention than in previous cycles. Gold Star father Khizr Khan has already endorsed Crow, signaling national efforts to elevate him. Democrats believe that this race should be one of the first to go to Democrats in a wave, proving that nonwhite voters, immigrants, and suburban voters have prioritized placing a check on the President s party. But as strategists from multiple states have noted, there are always a few survivors in a political wave. Candidate Conversation Mike Kennedy (R) Utah Senate Rating: Solid Republican Interview Date: May 2, 2018 Date of Birth: Feb. 2, 1969; Lansing, Mich. Education: BYU (1994); Michigan State medical school (1998); BYU Law School (2007) Elected Office: State Rep. (2012-present) Current Outlook: It s going to be difficult for anyone other than Mitt Romney to win a statewide race to succeed retiring Sen. Orrin Hatch, given the name ID of the former Massachusetts governor and 2012 GOP presidential nominee. But Kennedy, a state representative, managed to win more support at the Utah Republican Convention (51-49 percent), allowing both candidates to compete in the June 26 primary. Either candidate would be favored in a general election against Democrat Jenny Wilson. Evaluation: Kennedy a doctor who graduated from both law school and medical school ran for an open seat in the state House in 2012, though he originally planned to run against the Republican incumbent. In this Senate race, Kennedy maintains that he is not running in order to oppose Romney, and would have run against Hatch if he decided to run for re-election. Rather, he believes this is the right time for him in terms of his age, career, and government experience to best serve Utah. But that didn t stop him from comparing himself to his GOP primary opponent. Kennedy explained that, unlike Romney, he grew up in poverty and worked his way up to a successful private practice. But Kennedy needs to work on effectively delivering that message for it have a chance to resonate with voters. He also pointed to his fight against Obamacare while the former Massachusetts governor created Romneycare. In 2016, Kennedy originally supported Ted Cruz and wrote in Cruz s name on the 2016 general election ballot but he s been happy with Trump, and couldn t point to any policy areas where they have differences of opinion. When asked about some of Trump s positions and behaviors like the Access Hollywood Tape, the border wall, and the transgender military Tweets Kennedy pointed to Utah s and the LDS church s opposition to discrimination and support of humanitarian work, but agreed that the border wall should be built and that there could be some limitations to what transgender people do in the military to see where expensive procedures could be avoided. Kennedy points to his performance at the Republican nominating convention as evidence that, once he gets his name out, voters will find that they favor the candidate who lives in Utah, raised a family in state, and has worked hard to establish a successful practice. In 2016, Gov. Gary Herbert lost the GOP endorsement at the convention and won the Republican primary percent. Thomas McKinless/CQ Roll Call June 1,

8 Iowa s 1st District Election Results Rod Blum, R, seeking re-election. June 5 Democratic primary. Rating: Toss-up Candidate Conversations Aftab Pureval (D) Ohio s 1st District Rating: Likely Republican Interview Date: May 9, 2018 Date of Birth: Sept. 9, 1982; Beaver Creek, Ohio Education: Ohio State Univ. (2005); Univ. of Cincinnati law school (2008) Elected Office: Hamilton County Clerk of Courts (2016) Current Outlook: Democrats believe Hamilton County Clerk of Courts Pureval is a game-changer. He s already proved he can raise money ($680,000 cash on hand on April 18), ousted a GOP incumbent to get his current job, and said he s already crossed the $1 million raised threshold for this race since the last filing deadline. Meanwhile, GOP Rep. Steve Chabot was sitting on $1.3 million in mid-april and represents a district that President Donald Trump won by 6 points. At a minimum, Pureval will force Republicans to pay attention to this race. Evaluation: An attorney who used to work at Procter & Gamble (which has its headquarters in the district in Cincinnati), Pureval used a slew of talking points that Trump supporters would theoretically approve of: He supports draining the swamp, shrinking government, and bringing business experience to Congress. Pointing to homes that displayed yard signs for his own candidacy for Hamilton County Clerk of Courts and Trump for president in 2016, Pureval believes he can appeal to moderate Republicans and Independents, even though he opposes Chabot s vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act and vote in favor of the GOP tax bill. In terms of actual policy, he says he and the President agree on fixing the Western Hills Viaduct. Pureval exudes confidence, and it s not surprising that he was student body president at Ohio State. He points to his past success in ousting a Republican in a Republican seat for Hamilton County Clerk of Courts and his recordbreaking fundraising for that race as evidence that he can take down Chabot. On a debate stage, Pureval will be a stark contrast to Chabot, but this race will test whether the young Democrat comes across as genuine enough and whether the district is ready to elect a Democrat to the House. Tom Malinowski (D) New Jersey s 7th District Rating: Tilt Republican Interview Date: May 9, 2018 Date of Birth: Sept. 23,1965; Poland Education: UC-Berkeley (1988); Oxford Univ. (Rhodes Scholar, Master s 1991) Elected Office: None; First run for office Current Outlook: GOP Rep. Leonard Lance ($850,000 in the bank on March 31) is a throwback in style to the old Northeast Republicans, but Democrats are hoping he gets lumped in with a national party that is more conservative. Malinowski ($740,000), who was assistant secretary of state under President Barack Obama, is the likely Democratic nominee in a district Hillary Clinton won percent. But Lance is an affable incumbent who has consistently held town hall meetings, unlike some of his colleagues. Evaluation: Malinowski, who was born in Poland but grew up in Princeton, New Jersey, has worked for both the Clinton and Obama administrations and was Washington director of Human Rights Watch. That means he d lived in Washington, DC until 2017, but he said New Jersey has been the center of his family life, and his mom hosted holidays at her home there. He believes the GOP has left Lance, and the congressman is trying to moderate his record to appease constituents who are upset with Trump but also trying to appease GOP House leadership. While he notes that Lance voted against the tax bill, Malinowski explained that it passed anyway, and that it would have only required 23 no-votes to stop that bill. The Democrat believes the tax bill is the number one issue in this race, followed by infrastructure. Rather than targeting President Donald Trump, Malinowski will try to paint Lance as ineffective and focus on harmful legislation passed by Republicans in Congress. Malinowski is understated with a dry sense of humor, which makes for engaging conversation, though it s unclear how that will translate to the campaign trail. Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call 8 June 1, 2018 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research