THE ELECTIONS FINANCIAL MARKET IMPACT

Transcription

1 THE ELECTIONS FINANCIAL MARKET IMPACT EmergingWealth Investment Management, Inc Corporate Drive, Suite 360 Pittsburgh, PA Phone: (412) Legend Financial Advisors, Inc Corporate Drive, Suite 350 Pittsburgh, PA Phone: (412)

2 LOU STANASOLOVICH, CFP, CCO, CEO Lou is founder, CCO, CEO and President of Legend Financial Advisors, Inc. and EmergingWealth Investment Management, Inc. Legend s founder, Lou was selected by Financial Planning magazine as part of their inaugural Influencer Awards for the Wealth Creator Award recognizing the advisor who has made the most significant contributions to best practices for portfolio management. He is one of only four advisors nationwide to be selected 12 consecutive times by Worth magazine as one of The Top 100 Wealth Advisors in the country. Lou has also been selected 12 times by Medical Economics magazine as one of The 150 Best Financial Advisors for Doctors in America Lou has been selected five times by Dental Products Report as one of The Best Financial Advisors for Dentists in America. He has twice been named one of The 100 Great Financial Planners in America by Mutual Funds magazine. Lou has been named three times to Investment Advisor magazine s IA 25 list, ranking the 25 most influential people in and around the financial advisory profession. Lou was profiled in Financial Planning magazine as one of the country s Movers & Shakers recognizing the top individuals who have done the most to advance the financial advisory profession. Lou has also been selected three times by Pittsburgh Magazine as one of the Pittsburgh area s FIVE STAR Wealth Managers, a list that represents the most elite financial advisors in Pittsburgh. With over 30 years advising clients, he has shared his financial planning and investment management expertise through dozens of speeches, radio and television broadcasts, webcasts, and hundreds of times as an interviewee, writer and publisher.

3 ELECTION FACTS

4 GETTING BETTER WITH AGE Just 56.6% of Americans at least age 18 voted in the 2012 presidential election. For Americans aged 18-24, just 38.0% of them voted in the last presidential election. For older Americans who were at least age 65, 69.7% voted four years ago. Source: Census Bureau via Direxion, By The Numbers, October 10, 2016,

5 TAX PROPOSALS FROM PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES If Democratic President/Congress <<If President One Party/Congress The Other>>If Republican President/Congress Estate Tax 65.0% Lower Estate Tax Exemption Eliminate Step-Up In Basis At Death Eliminate Estate Tax 47.4% Tax Rate Dividends And LT Gains Taxed As Ordinary Income Limit Value Of Deductions To 28.0% Limit The Value Of Deductions Limit Deductions To $100,000 Per Person 33.0% Tax Rate Eliminate Like-Kind Exchanges Eliminate Carried Interest Size of Circle = Probability GREEN=Both Parties Have Proposals RED=Trump BLUE=Clinton PINK=Sanders As of: Fall, 2016 COPYRIGHT 2016 TWENTY-FIRST SECURITIES CORPORATION Source: Twenty-First Securities Corporation, Tailored Solutions, Volume XIX, Issue 3, Fall, 2016, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM TWENTY-FIRST SECURITIES CORPORATION

6 ALL THE SAME One political party has controlled the White House, the Senate and the House in 20 of the last 60 years, i.e., 1957 to E.g., Democrats controlled the White House (Obama), the Senate ( ) and the House ( ) in 2010, the last year that one political party controlled all three entities. Source: Direxion, By The Numbers, October 10, 2016,

7 OFFICES UP FOR ELECTION I. President (Four Year Term) II. Senate (Six Year Term) A Senatorial Class (Known As Class 3) 34 Seats 1. Current Situation (100 Elected Senators) a. Republicans 54 b. Democrats 44 c. Independent 2 2. Up For Election (34 Senators) a. Republicans 24 b. Democrats 10

8 OFFICES UP FOR ELECTION (Continued) III. House Of Representatives (Two Year Terms) A Congressional Districts Will Hold Elections 218 Seats Needed For Control 1. Locals a. All 50 States b. The District Of Columbia c. The Inhabited Territories (5) 2. Current Situation a. 246 Republicans Largest Majority Since 1928 b. 186 Democrats c. 0 Independent d. 3 Vacancies

9 OFFICES UP FOR ELECTION (Continued) IV. Other Election Facts A. Election Day Tuesday, November 8, 2016 B. Inauguration Day Friday, January 20, 2017

10 CONGRESSIONAL & PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATINGS % Change In Votes Required So That A New Party Takes Control **Swing required is defined as the percentage of total voters, on a uniform national basis, that would have to switch from voting Republican to Democrat or vice-versa, in order to achieve 270 Electoral College votes, 50 Senate seats or 218 House seats respectively. Calculations are relative to the 2010 Senate election, 2012 Presidential election and 2014 House election respectively. Estimates also count two independent senators currently caucusing with the Democrats as Democrats. As of: September 30, 2016 Source: U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, J.P. Morgan Asset Management COPYRIGHT 2016 J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION OF J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT

11 S&P 500 S (U.S. LARGE STOCK S) ANNUAL & PRESIDENTIAL CYCLES COMBINED: ANNUALIZED TOTAL RETURNS, 1926 TO DATE Post-Election Year Mid-Term Year Pre-Election Year Election Year 24.7% 12.9% 11.0% 9.4% 8.4% 8.7% 5.8% 1.1% Nov-Apr May-Oct Nov-Apr May-Oct Nov-Apr May-Oct Nov-Apr May-Oct We are here As of: October 7, 2016 COPYRIGHT 2016 THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC Source: The Leuthold Group, LLC, Perception Express, October 7,

12 SMALL U.S. STOCK S ANNUAL & PRESIDENTIAL CYCLES COMBINED: ANNUALIZED TOTAL RETURNS, 1926 TO DATE Post-Election Year Mid-Term Year Pre-Election Year Election Year 34.6% 27.1% 18.6% 9.0% 6.6% 9.4% 3.8% May-Oct -10.4% Nov-Apr May-Oct Nov-Apr Nov-Apr May-Oct Nov-Apr May-Oct We are here As of: October 7, 2016 COPYRIGHT 2016 THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC Source: The Leuthold Group, LLC, Perception Express, October 7,

13 Average Return 10.0% SELL IN MAY PHENOMENON BY PRESIDENTAL CYCLE: Dow Jones Industrial Average (1900 To 2015) November Through April 10.92% 8.0% May Through October Average May October return during Year 4 s = +4.52% 6.0% 4.72% 4.52% 4.0% 3.48% 2.60% 2.0% 0.0% 1.28% 0.50% 0.00% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Presidential Year Source: J. Lyons Fund Management, Inc./My401kPro.com

14 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CYCLE IN THE S&P TO DATE % 16.0 S&P 500 Annualized Total Return % % +6.1% Post-Election Year Mid-Term Year Pre-Election Year Election Year As of: September, 2010 COPYRIGHT 2010THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC Source: The Leuthold Group, LLC, Perception Express, September, 2010 REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC

15 S&P PERFORMANCE DURING ELECTION YEARS 12.0% 11.40% 10.0% 8.0% 7.00% 6.0% 4.0% 3.33% 2.0% 0.0% Election Year Average Democrat Win Republican Win

16 S&P 500 PERFORMANCE AVERAGES * IN ELECTION VERSUS NON-ELECTION YEARS 1944 To Date September October November December President Election Years 0.0% 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% Non President Election Years -0.8% 1.1% 1.4% 1.9% * Price-Only Returns As of: September, 2008 COPYRIGHT 2008 THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC Source: The Leuthold Group, LLC, Perception Express, September, 2008, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC

17 HISTORICAL POST-ELECTION STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE **The First 200 Days** As Of 2008 All Presidential Elections Stock Market Performance Following Election Day (Price Only Performance: DJIA; 1928 To Date S&P 500) Occurrences 10 Days 20 Days 50 Days 75 Days 100 Days 150 Days 200 Days Elections 1896 To Date % 0.9% 1.7% 1.5% 0.9% 3.5% 5.3% Republican Wins 1896 To Date % 2.8% 2.7% 3.0% 2.6% 5.1% 5.6% Democrat Wins 1869 To Date % -1.6% 0.4% -0.4% -1.1% 1.4% 4.9% Republican vs. Democrat Elections 1944 To Date (Post World War II) % 0.3% 1.7% 1.4% 0.7% 3.0% 3.7% Republican Wins 1944 To Date 9 0.1% 1.3% 1.1% -0.7% -1.5% 0.6% 0.2% Democrat Wins 1944 To Date 7-1.1% -0.8% 2.6% 4.0% 3.4% 6.1% 8.2% As of: September, 2008 COPYRIGHT 2008 THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC Source: The Leuthold Group, LLC, Perception Express, September, 2008, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC

18 STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE UNDER U.S. PRESIDENTS SINCE % % 14.9% 12.6% % 10.3% 8.9% 6.7% 6.0% 9.4% % -4.6% Truman Kennedy Nixon Bush (41) Bush (43) Eisenhower Johnson Ford Carter Reagan Clinton Obama Source: SCP Capital IQ

19 S&P 500 INDEX ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE BY PRESIDENT President Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Grant Hayes Garfield Cleveland Harrison Cleveland McKinley* Roosevelt, T Taft Wilson Harding* Coolidge Hoover Roosevelt, F Roosevelt, F.** Truman Eisenhower *Died or resigned while in office. If during first term, then S&P 500 returns applied to original president. If occurred during second term, then subsequent returns applied to new president s first term. **FDR s third term included in second term statistics as it is a non-first term. COPYRIGHT 2015 NED DAVIS RESEARCH, INC. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices via Ned Davis Research, 2015, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM NED DAVIS RESEARCH, INC.

20 S&P 500 INDEX ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE BY PRESIDENT (cont d) President Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Kennedy* Johnson Nixon Ford Carter Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama N/A N/A All Cases YEAR 7 UP, BUT < YEAR 3 Median % Positive Since 1953 (Term Limits): Median % Positive *Died or resigned while in office. If during first term, then S&P 500 returns applied to original president. If occurred during second term, then subsequent returns applied to new president s first term. **FDR s third term included in second term statistics as it is a non-first term. COPYRIGHT 2015 NED DAVIS RESEARCH, INC. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices via Ned Davis Research, 2015, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM NED DAVIS RESEARCH, INC.

21 POLITICAL PARTY DOMINANCE Democratic % Of Major Party Seats *In roll call votes where the majority in one party voted the opposite way to the majority in the other. Data compiled by Professors Keith T. Poole and Howard Rosenthal, available at Data on voting records are not yet available for the 114 th Congress. **Stock market returns are price returns and do not include dividends. Average annual returns are calculated using year-end to year-end numbers for the entire year because Democrats held the chamber for most of the year. As of: September 30, 2016 Source: U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, J.P. Morgan Asset Management COPYRIGHT 2016 J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION OF J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT

22 CONGRESSIONAL & PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATINGS *In roll call votes where the majority in one party voted the opposite way to the majority in the other. Data compiled by Professors Keith T. Poole and Howard Rosenthal, available at Data on voting records are not yet available for the 114 th Congress. **Stock market returns are price returns and do not include dividends. Average annual returns are calculated using year-end to year-end numbers for the entire year because Democrats held the chamber for most of the year. As of: September 30, 2016 Source: Gallup Inc., J.P. Morgan Asset Management COPYRIGHT 2016 J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION OF J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT

23 ANNUAL MARKET RETURNS BY POLITICAL PARTY CONTROL** *In roll call votes where the majority in one party voted the opposite way to the majority in the other. Data compiled by Professors Keith T. Poole and Howard Rosenthal, available at Data on voting records are not yet available for the 114 th Congress. **Stock market returns are price returns and do not include dividends. Average annual returns are calculated using year-end to year-end numbers for the entire year because Democrats held the chamber for most of the year. As of: June 30, 2016 Source: U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, Gallup Inc., FactSet, Standard & Poor s, BEA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management COPYRIGHT 2016 J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION OF J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT

24 DOW JONES FOUR-YEAR PRESIDENTIAL CYCLES Election Year First Presidential Year Second Presidential Year Third Presidential Year Presidential Election Pattern Based on Daily Data ( to ) Trend Is More Important Than Level As of: January 8, 2016 COPYRIGHT 2016 CMG CAPITAL MANAGEMENT GROUP, INC. Source: Ned Davis Research via CMG Capital Management Group, Inc. On My Radar, January 8, 2016, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM NED DAVIS RESEARCH AND CMG CAPITAL MANAGEMENT GROUP, INC.

25 ELECTION CYCLE IN THE STOCK MARKET: BEFORE AND AFTER THE KEYNESIAN REVOLUTION To To Date +16.8% 16.0 S&P 500* Annualized Price Appreciation % Favorable Pre-Election Phase Of Cycle (15 Months) *S&P 500 returns prior to 1871 estimated by Global Financial Data As of: September, 2010 COPYRIGHT 2010THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC +1.6% Unfavorable Phase Of Cycle (Next 33 Months) Favorable Pre-Election Phase Of Cycle (15 Months) +1.8% Unfavorable Phase Of Cycle (Next 33 Months) Source: The Leuthold Group, LLC, Perception Express, September, 2010 REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC

26 1.50 PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE PATTERNS nd Term Presidents 1 st Termer From New Party Election Nov. 1 st Year Nov. 2 nd Year Nov. 3 rd Year Election 2014, McClellan Financial Publications

27 25.0% DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (DJIA) RETURNS SPLIT BETWEEN FIRST AND SECOND TERMS 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% First Terms 5.0% Second Terms 0.0% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4-5.0% -10.0% Note: Data reflect the DJIA Since 1940 and fiscal years beginning October 1

28 THE LOWEST INTEREST RATES IN 5,000 YEARS 20.0% 18.0% Short-term rates Long-term rates 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 3000 BC Note: The intervals on the X-Axis change through time up to From 1700 onwards, they are annual intervals. Full methodology available upon request. As of: June 13, 2016 COPYRIGHT CAPITAL, LLC Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy, Bank of England, Global Financial Data, Homer and Sylla A History of Interest Rates via 361 Capital, LLC, Weekly Research Briefing, June 13, 2016, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM 361 CAPITAL, LLC

29 FIXED INCOME CHARACTERISTICS AND PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS Averages As of: September 30, 2016 Source: Barclays Capital, JP Morgan, BofA Merrill Lynch and Standard & Poor s via Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor, July, 2016, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION OF EATON VANCE DISTRIBUTORS, INC.

30 P/E SHILLER PRICE/EARNINGS RATIOS Long-Term Stock Market P/E Valuations Fell A Bit In December-Still In Highest Valuation Levels Note: Created by Robert J. Shiller, Professor at Yale University, this Price Earnings Ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years (Each year of earnings is inflated and quoted in current dollars), known as the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio, also known as the Shiller PE Ratio, or PE 10 Ratio. Because this factors in earnings from the previous ten years, it is less prone to wild swings in any one year. The bad news: Because of the current high P/E valuation of returns on the S&P 500 are likely to be in the very low single digits over the next ten years. Black Tuesday Black Monday As of: October 18, 2016 REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION OF LEGEND FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INC. Source: COPYRIGHT 2016 LEGEND FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INC.

31 U.S. STARTING VALUATIONS HAVE DEMONSTRATED A STRONG IMPACT ON FUTURE RETUNS Subsequent nominal returns (annualized)* Current level: * Median of the annualized subsequent returns calculated at each month end, using Shiller P/E and S&P 500 monthly returns from December 31, 1927 to November 21, 2014 As of: December 2015 Source: Robert Shiller Online Data; Via PIMCO

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33 CONTACT INFORMATION EmergingWealth Investment Management, Inc Corporate Drive, Suite 360 Pittsburgh, PA Phone: (412) Legend Financial Advisors, Inc Corporate Drive, Suite 350 Pittsburgh, PA Phone: (412)