ELECTION 2018: Is There a Big Blue Wave Coming? Michael W. Traugott Center for Political Studies University of Michigan

Transcription

1 ELECTION 2018: Is There a Big Blue Wave Coming? Michael W. Traugott Center for Political Studies University of Michigan Wolverine Caucus September 25, 2018

2 General Outline of the Contest In the last few elections, party identification has come to play a bigger role in voting behavior. In both the United States and in Michigan, there are more self-described Democrats than Republicans. Broad contrasting themes of DRAIN THE SWAMP versus RESTORE NORMAL ORDER AND THE MIDDLE CLASS Important role of gender in the primaries, the general election, and partisanship Very likely Democrats capture the House; what happens in the Senate?

3 Historical Pattern of Midterm House Seat Losses

4 House: The Generic Ballot Question

5 House: The Generic Ballot Question

6 The Impact of Polarization

7 The Impact of Polarization

8 House: The Impact of Gerrymandering

9 What Else Affects Midterm Elections? All models are wrong, but some models are useful. George Box Presidential approval Retrospective evaluations of the economy Structural factors: whose seats are at stake In a midterm election, the President s party ordinarily loses seats

10 Models Explaining Midterm Elections: Presidential Approval

11 Models Explaining Midterm Elections: Presidential Approval 41.4%

12 Factors Affecting Midterm Elections: Retirements

13 Factors Affecting Midterm Elections: A House Forecast

14 Factors Affecting Midterm Elections: The Economy 10 th Percentile 90 th Percentile 50 th Percentile Michigan Percentiles of the Population

15 Factors Affecting Midterm Elections: The Economy Michigan Monthly Change in Personal Disposable Income in the Last Year Monthly Change in Personal Disposable Income in July by State

16 The Baseline for Elections

17 Another Measure of Dissatisfaction: Presidential Approval in the First Term

18 Enthusiasm Gap in 2018 Campaign

19 Modeling Electoral Turnover August APSA panel of statistical modelers

20 Factors Affecting Midterm Elections: The Senate Tossup Seats At stake: 29 Democratic, 9 Republican Democratic Held FL-Nelson TN-Open MO-McCaskill ND-Heitkamp Republican Held AZ-Open NV-Heller TX-Cruz IN-Donnelly

21 What Lies Ahead? More deeply divided government than now, in a different way Congress: Lame duck session another Supreme Court nominee? New Congress: A lot of investigations in the Democratic House, maybe impeachment

22 What Does the Future Hold for the Parties?

23 What Does the Future Hold for the Parties?

24 What Does the Future Hold for the Parties?

25 The Michigan Gubernatorial Race

26 The Michigan Senatorial Race