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1 Chapter 2: Congressional Elections Table of Contents Number Title Page 2-1 Turnout in Presidential and House Elections, (percentage of voting age population) 2-2 Popular Vote and House Seats Won by Party, Net Party Gains in House and Senate Seats, General and Special Elections, Losses by the President's Party in Midterm Elections, House Seats That Changed Party, Senate Seats That Changed Party, House Incumbents Retired, Defeated, or Reelected, Senate Incumbents Retired, Defeated, or Reelected, House and Senate Retirements by Party, Defeated House Incumbents, Defeated Senate Incumbents, House Elections Won with 60 Percent of Major Party Vote, Senate Elections Won with 60 Percent of Major Party Vote, Marginal Races Among Members of the 114th Congress, a Conditions of Initial Election for Members of the 113th Congress, b Conditions of Initial Election for Members of the 114th Congress, Ticket Splitting between Presidential and House Candidates, District Voting for President and Representative, Shifts in Democratic Major Party Vote in Congressional Districts, Party-Line Voting in Presidential and Congressional Elections, (as a percentage of all voters) 42

2 Table 2-1 Turnout in Presidential and House Elections, (percentage of voting age population) Year Presidential elections House elections Year Presidential elections House elections

3 Note: For all presidential elections and House elections , turnout is computed using the number of citizens eligible to vote in the United States. For House elections before 1962, it is computed using the voting age population (including non-citizens). For the 2006 elections and future editions of Vital Statistics on Congress, turnout is of voting-eligible population (VEP.) The voting-eligible population is the population that is eligible to vote. Counted among the voting-age population are persons who are ineligible to vote, such as non-citizens, felons (depending on state law), and mentally incapacitated persons. Not counted are persons in the military or civilians living overseas. Some data from earlier years/previous versions of Vital Statistics have been updated. See errata for more detail. Source: For House elections , U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office). For presidential elections and House elections , numbers were provided by Curtis Gans of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate at American University. From 2006 to 2014, the VEP was calculated by Michael McDonald found at and calculated against the Federal Election Commission voting data found at 2

4 Table 2-2 Popular Vote and House Seats Won by Party, Democratic candidates Republican candidates Change from last election a Difference between Percentage of Democratic Year Percentage of all votes b Percentage of seats won c Percentage of all votes b Percentage of seats won c major party votes Percentage of seats won c percentage of seats and votes won R 12.8R D 17.3D R 6.6R R 4.9R D 4.2D R 0.5D D 11.1D R 4.9R R 0.6R D 8.4D R 10.8R R 1.1R D 2.7D R 2.8R D 11.1D R 0.2D R 3.4R R 7.8R D 5.9D R 3.6R D 1.1D R 0.5D D 1.6D R 2.1R R 12.4R D 0.7D R 0.9D D 0.2D R 2.0R D 0.6R D 7.2D D 5.5D R 14.7R D 1.8D R 3.0R

5 Note: Some data from earlier years/previous versions of Vital Statistics have been updated. See errata for more detail. a. The data show the percentage-point increase over previous election in votes or seats won by Republicans (R) or Democrats (D). b. Republican and Democratic percentages of all votes excludes districts in which candidates ran unopposed and no vote was recorded. c. Total percentage of seats won does not equal 100% due to the election of independents and/or rounding. Source: Biographical Directory of the United States Congress (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1989); Congressional Quarterly Almanac (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, various years); National Journal, various issues; The Almanac of American Politics (Washington, D.C.: National Journal Group, various years) Most recent update source: Tabulations of data from Federal Election Commission, 4

6 Table 2-3 Net Party Gains in House and Senate Seats, General and Special Elections, General elections a Special elections b General elections a Special elections b Year House Senate House Senate Year House Senate House Senate 2R (13) 3R (8) 1D (8) 0 (0) R 13R D 1R 0 (16) 0 (3) 1R (7) 1R (1) D 9D R 2D 0 (10) 2R (6) 0 (4) 1D (1) R 5R D 8D 3R (13) 2R (4) 1R (6) 0 (0) R 1R D 0 2D (8) 0 (9) 1D (11) 0 (1) D 2D D 1D 0 (2) 2R (3) 1D (6) 2D (3) c D 1D R 0 0 (10) 1D (4) 2R (7) 1R (2) D 15D R 8R d 1R (7) 1D (3) 1R (5) 1D (1) R 2R D e 2R 0 (12) 0 (6) 0 (8) R 3D D 0 2R (9) 0 (2) 0 (3) D 1D D 4D 0 (8) 1R (3) 1R (9) f R 4R R 1R 1R (5) 0 (0) 1D (3) g R 6R R 4R 3D (9) 0 (2) 0 (3) D 2R D 6D 0 (9) 0 (2) 3D (13) h 0 (0) R 2D D 8D 4D (10) 0 (0) 1R (9) 1R (1) D 4D R 6R 0 (6) 1D (1) 0 (6) 0 (0) D D 2D 4R (6) 1R (2) 0 (8) 0(2) R 3R R 9R 1R (6) 0 (0) 0 (4) 0 (0) R 12R 5

7 Note: D indicates Democrats; R indicates Republicans. a. The general election figure is the difference between the number of seats won by the party gaining seats in that election and the number of seats won by that party in the preceding general election. b. The special election figure is the net shift in seats held by the major parties as a result of special elections held between the two general elections. The figure does not include special elections held on the day of the general election. The number of special elections appears in parentheses. c. The total number of special elections (3) includes the special election of Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) to fill the seat to which John Seymour was temporarily appointed. The special election was held at the same time as the general election (November 3, 1992). d. Sen. Richard Shelby (AL) switched from the Democratic to the Republican Party the day after the election and brought the total Republican gain to nine. e. Between the two elections, six Representatives switched parties. When we consider those switches and special election Republican gains, the total 1996 Democratic gain was nine seats. f. Includes Ed Case (D-HI) who was elected November 30, 2002 after sine die adjournment of the House of Representatives, to fill Patsy Mink's chair (D-HI) in the 107th Congress. g. Includes Ed Case (D-HI) who was elected in a special election on January 4, 2003 to fill Patsy Mink's (D-HI) chair for the 108th Congress. h. Includes Marcia L. Fudge (D-OH) who was elected in a special election on November 18, 2008, to fill the remainder during the 110th Congress of the term of Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-OH) who died in office. Fudge was also elected in the general election on November 4, 2008, to serve in the 111th Congress. Source: Congressional Quarterly Almanac (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, various years); Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, various issues; National Journal, various issues, Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, Clerk of the U.S. Senate, 6

8 Table 2-4 Losses by the President's Party in Midterm Elections, President's party gain/loss of seats in House President's party gain/loss of seats in Senate President's party gain/loss of seats in House President's party gain/loss of seats in Senate Year Party holding presidency Year Party holding presidency 1862 R D R D R D R R R R R D D D R R D R R D R 9 a R R R R R D D b 1918 D D R R R R R D D D D

9 Note: D indicates Democrats; R indicates Republicans. Each entry is the difference between the number of seats won by the president's party in that midterm election and the number of seats won by that party in the preceding general election. Because of changes in the overall number of seats in the Senate and House, in the number of seats won by third parties, and in the number of vacancies, a Republican loss is not always matched precisely by a Democratic gain, or vice versa. Data reflects immediate election results. a. Although the Republicans gained nine seats in the 1902 elections, they actually lost ground to the Democrats, who gained twenty-five seats after the increase in the overall number of Representatives after the 1900 census. b. Sen. Richard Shelby (AL) switched from the Democratic to the Republican Party the day following the election, so that the total loss was nine seats. Source: Biographical Directory of the United States Congress (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1989); Congressional Quarterly Almanac (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, various years); National Journal, various issues; The Almanac of American Politics (Washington, D.C.: National Journal Group, various years), Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, Clerk of the U.S. Senate, 8

10 Table 2-5 House Seats That Changed Party, Incumbent defeated Open seat Year Total changes D R R D D R R D

11 Note: This table reflects shifts in party control of seats from immediately before to immediately after the November elections. It does not include party gains resulting from the creation of new districts and does not account for situations in which two districts were reduced to one, thus forcing incumbents to run against each other. Party gains that resulted from an incumbent being defeated in either a primary or general election are classified as incumbent defeats. In situations where the incumbent declined to run again, ran for another political office, or died or resigned before the end of the term are classified as open seats. Source: Biographical Directory of the United States Congress (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1989); Congressional Quarterly Almanac (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, various years); National Journal, various issues; The Almanac of American Politics (Washington, D.C.: National Journal Group, various years); Election 2012 Data: The Impact on the House (The Brookings Institution)., The Green Papers,

12 Table 2-6 Senate Seats That Changed Party, Incumbent defeated Open seat Year Total changes D R R D D R R D a b c d e 2 f g

13 Note: D indicates Democrat; R indicates Republican. This table reflects shifts in party control of seats from immediately before to immediately after the November election. Party gains that resulted from an incumbent being defeated in either a primary or general election are classified as incumbent defeats. In situations where the incumbent declined to run again, ran for another political office, or died or resigned before the end of the term are classified as open seats. a. Includes John Durkin (D-NH). After a contested election in which incumbent Sen. Norris Cotton did not run, the Senate declared the seat vacant as of August 8, Sen. Durkin was then elected by special election, September 16, 1975, to fill the vacancy. b. Sen. Richard Shelby (AL) switched from the Democratic to the Republican Party the day after the election and brought the total change to nine. c. Includes Norm Coleman (R-MN) who beat Walter Mondale (D-MN) after the death of Sen. Paul Wellstone (D- MN). d. Does not include Al Franken (D-MN), who was declared on 30 June 2009 to have won the US Senate contest defeating Incumbent Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN). This brings the R D Incumbent Defeat up to 5, and the Total Changes up to 8. e. Does not include Incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski (R- AK), who lost her primary to Joe Miller (R-AK) but won the general election as a Republican write-in candidate. f. Includes Pat Toomey (R-PA), who defeated Senator Arlen Specter (D-PA). Specter had changed his affiliation from Republican to Democrat in office on April 30, g. Includes Montana Senate race, in which incumbent John Walsh withdrew from race after winning Democratic primary and was replaced at party convention. Source: Congressional Quarterly Almanac (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, various years); Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, various issues; National Journal, various issues, The Green Papers,

14 Table 2-7 House Incumbents Retired, Defeated, or Reelected, Total seeking reelection Defeated in general election Percentage of those seeking reelection Reelected as percentage of House membership Defeated in Total Year Retired a primaries reelected b c d

15 Note: Some data from previous versions of Vital Statistics have been updated. See errata for more detail. a. This entry does not include persons who died or resigned before the election. b. Includes Jim Traficant (D- OH), who ran as an Independent in the election despite being expelled from the House of Representatives in July c. Includes Patsy Mink (D-HI) who died shortly before the election yet remained on the ballot. d. Includes Albert R. Wynn (D-MD) who lost his primary on February 13, 2008, and promptly resigned his seat effective May 31, Donna Edwards (D-MD) who won the primary and then won the special election to fill Wynn's seat for the remainder of the term is not counted as an incumbent in this table. Source: Biographical Directory of the United States Congress (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1989); Congressional Quarterly Almanac (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, various years); National Journal, various issues; The Almanac of American Politics (Washington, D.C.: National Journal Group, various years), Center for Responsive Politics, Most recent update source: Tabulations of data from Federal Election Commission,

16 Table 2-8 Senate Incumbents Retired, Defeated, or Reelected, Total seeking reelection a Defeated in general election Reelected as percentage of those seeking reelection Year Not seeking reelection Defeated in primaries Total reelected b c d e f g

17 Note: Table includes all Senate contests in a given year, whether for full or partial terms. a. This entry includes Senators who died or resigned before the election and those retiring at the end of their terms. b. Sheila Frahm, appointed to fill Robert Dole's term, is counted as an incumbent in Kansas's "B" seat. c. Sen. Joe Lieberman (CT) lost in the Democratic primary, but ran in the general election as an independent and won reelection. d. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) lost her primary to Joe Miller (R-AK), but ran in the general election as a Republican write-in candidate and won reelection. e. Total includes Dean Heller (R-NV), who was appointed on May 9, 2011 and won reelection. f. Includes the resignation of Tom Coburn (R-OK) and the resulting special election to finish his term. g. John Walsh (D-MT) withdrew from race after primary and was replaced on the ballot at a party convention. Source: Congressional Quarterly Almanac (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, various years); Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, various issues; National Journal, various issues, Center for Responsive Politics, Most recent update source: Tabulations of data from Federal Election Commission,

18 Table 2-9 House and Senate Retirements by Party, House Senate House Senate Year D R D R Year D R D R a b

19 Note: D indicates Democrat; R indicates Republican. These figures include members who did not run again for the office they held and members who sought other offices; the figures do not include members who died or resigned before the end of the particular Congress. a. Includes Frank Murkowski (R-AK) who ran for governor, won and appointed Lisa Murkoswki to finish the last two years of his term. b. This total includes Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), who caucused with Democrats. Source: Mildred L. Amer, Information on the Number of House Retirees, , (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, Staff Report, May 19, 1992); Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, various issues; National Journal, various issues; Roll Call, Casualty List: 112th Congress., Center for Responsive Politics,

20 Table 2-10 Defeated House Incumbents, Consecutive terms served Election Party Incumbents lost Average terms Democrat Republican Total Democrat a Republican Total Democrat b Republican Total Democrat Republican Total Democrat Republican Total Democrat Republican Total Democrat Republican Total Democrat Republican c Total Democrat Republican Total Democrat Republican Total

21 Table 2-10 Defeated House Incumbents, Consecutive terms served Election Party Incumbents lost Average terms Democrat Republican Total Democrat Republican d Total Democrat Republican Total Democrat Republican Total Democrat e Republican Total Democrat Republican Total Democrat Republican Total Democrat f Republican Total Democrat g Republican Total

22 Table 2-10 Defeated House Incumbents, Consecutive terms served Election Party Incumbents lost Average terms Democrat Republican Total Democrat h Republican Total Democrat Republican i Total Democrat Republican Total Democrat Republican Total 18 j

23 Note: The 1966 and 1982 numbers do not include races where incumbents ran against incumbents due to redistricting. We counted incumbents who lost in the primary as their party's incumbent but then ran in the general election as a write-in or third-party candidate as an incumbent loss. a. This includes Leo Isacson (NY), who was a member of the American Labor Party. b. This includes Vincent Dellay (NJ), who was elected as a Republican but switched to a Democrat. He ran for reelection as an Independent. c. This includes Eugene Atkinson (PA), who began his House service January 3, 1979, as a Democrat. He became a Republican on October 14, d. This includes Donald Lukens (OH) who was defeated in the primary and then resigned on October 24, 1990 and Bill Grant (Fla.) who began his House service January 6, 1987, as a Democrat, but later switched parties. The Republican Conference let his seniority count from e. One Democratic incumbent, who served more than ten terms in office, was defeated. f. Includes Jim Traficant (OH) who ran as an Independent after being expelled from the House. g. Excludes two 13-term representatives, Charles Stenholm (TX) and Martin Frost (TX), that ran against incumbents as a result of redistricting. h. Includes Albert R. Wynn (D-MD) who lost his primary on February 13, 2008, and promptly resigned his seat effective May 31, i. Includes Parker Griffith (AL) who began his House service January 3, 2009, as a Democrat but switched to a Republican on December 22, j. Excludes the defeat of Eni Faleomavaega (D-Samoa) seeking 14th term as a non-voting delegate. Source: Biographical Directory of the United States Congress , Congressional Quarterly Almanac (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, various years); National Journal, various issues; The Almanac of American Politics (Washington, D.C.: National Journal Group, various years); Roll Call, Casualty List: 112th Congress, Center for Responsive Politics,

24 Table 2-11 Defeated Senate Incumbents, Consecutive terms served Election Party Incumbents lost Average terms Democrat Republican Total Democrat Republican Total Republican Total Democrat Total Democrat Republican Total Democrat Republican Total Democrat Republican Total Democrat Republican Total Democrat Republican Total Republican a Total Democrat Republican Total Republican Total

25 Table 2-11 Defeated Senate Incumbents, Consecutive terms served Election Party Incumbents lost Average terms Democrat Republican Total Democrat Total Republican c Total Democrat Repbulican Total Democrat Republican Total Democrat d Republican Total Democrat Republican Total Republican Total Republican Total Democrat Republican Total Republican Total Democrat e Republican Total

26 Note: Some data from previous versions of Vital Statistics have been updated. See errata for more detail. a. This includes James Broyhill (R-NC) who was appointed on July 14, 1986, until November 14, He lost to Terry Sanford (D-NC) who took over the seat on November 5, b. Includes John Seymour (R-CA) who was appointed on January 7, 1991, until November 3, c. Includes Sheila Frahm (R-KS) who was appointed on June 11, 1996 until November 7, d. Includes Jean Carnahan (D-MO) who was appointed to fill her husband's seat in e. Does not include John Walsh (D-MT) who withdrew from the race after the primary and was replaced on the ballot. Source: Biographical Directory of the United States Congress (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1989); Congressional Quarterly Almanac (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, various years); National Journal, various issues; The Almanac of American Politics (Washington, D.C.: National Journal Group, various years). Most recent update source: Tabulations of data from Federal Election Commission,

27 Table 2-12 House Elections Won with 60 Percent of Major Party Vote, Number of incumbents running in general election Percentage of incumbents reelected with at least 60 percent of the major party vote Year a

28 a. Includes Jim Traficant (D-OH) who ran as an Independent after being expelled from the House of Representatives. Source: Biographical Directory of the United States Congress (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1989); Congressional Quarterly Almanac (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, various years); National Journal, various issues; The Almanac of American Politics (Washington, D.C.: National Journal Group, various years); Election 2012 Data: The Impact on the House (The Brookings Institution). Most recent update source: Tabulations of data from Federal Election Commission,

29 Table 2-13 Senate Elections Won with 60 Percent of Major Party Vote, Percentage of incumbents reelected with at least 60 percent of the major party vote a Number of incumbents running in Election Period general election South North Total U.S b

30 a. For the purposes of this table, Senators appointed to the Senate are not considered incumbents in the elections just after appointment. Southern senators are from AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, and VA; all other senators are counted under northern. b. Includes two Democratic incumbents from Louisiana, who by winning more than 50 percent of the vote in that state's all-party primary, avoided a general election contest. In 1980, Russell Long won 59.8 percent of the vote, and in 1984, J. Bennett Johnston won 86 percent of the vote. Source: Biographical Directory of the United States Congress (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1989); Congressional Quarterly Almanac (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, various years); National Journal, various issues; The Almanac of American Politics (Washington, D.C.: National Journal Group, various years). Most recent update source: Tabulations of data from Federal Election Commission,

31 Table 2-14 Marginal Races Among Members of the 114th Congress, 2014 Members who won the congressional election by 60 percent or less Members who won the congressional election by 55 percent or less Chamber Number Percentage a Number Percentage House Senate

32 Note: Members winning with fewer than 55% are included among those winning with fewer than 60%. Vote shares used in calculations are of two-party vote. a. Includes all campaigns (including special elections after resignations). Excludes appointments without election. Thus, numbers do not total to 100 and 435, respectively. Source: Biographical Directory of the United States Congress (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1989); Congressional Quarterly Almanac (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, various years); National Journal, various issues; The Almanac of American Politics (Washington, D.C.: National Journal Group, various years); Election 2012 Data: The Impact on the House (The Brookings Institution); Federal Election Commission. Most recent update source: Tabulations of data from Federal Election Commission,

33 Table 2-15a Conditions of Initial Election for Members of the 113th Congress, 2013 Condition Democrats Republicans Total Percentage of entire House Democrats Republicans Total Defeated incumbent In primary In general election Succeeded retiring incumbent House Senate Of same party a Of other party b Succeeded deceased incumbent Of same party Of other party New districts Total

34 Note: Retirements include incumbents seeking other office. a. Total includes Christopher Murphy (D-CT). Murphy succeeded Independent Joseph Lieberman, who caucused with Democrats. b. Total includes Angus King (I-ME), who is expected to caucus with Democrats. King succeeded Republican Olympia Snowe. Source: Biographical Directory of the United States Congress (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1989); Congressional Quarterly Almanac (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, various years); National Journal, various issues; The Almanac of American Politics (Washington, D.C.: National Journal Group, various years). 33

35 Table 2-15b Conditions of Initial Election for Members of the 114th Congress, 2015 House Senate Condition Democrats Republicans Total Percentage of entire House Democrats Republicans Total Defeated incumbent In primary In general election Succeeded retiring incumbent Of same party Of other party Succeeded deceased incumbent Of same party Of other party New districts Total

36 Note: Percentage of seats won do not equal 100% due to 2010 totals. Source: Biographical Directory of the United States Congress (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1989); Congressional Quarterly Almanac (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, various years); National Journal, various issues; The Almanac of American Politics (Washington, D.C.: National Journal Group, various years). 35

37 Table 2-16 Ticket Splitting between Presidential and House Candidates, Districts with split results a Year Districts b Number Percentage

38 a. These are congressional districts carried by a presidential candidate of one party and a House candidate of another party. b. Before 1952 complete data are not available on every congressional district. Source: Congressional Quarterly Almanac and CQ Voting and Elections Collection (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, various years); National Journal, various issues; The Almanac of American Politics (Washington, D.C.: National Journal Group, various years). For 2000, Gregory Giroux, Congressional Quarterly; Presidential Results by Congressional Districts (Daily Kos Elections); Election 2012 Data: The Impact on the House (The Brookings Institution). Most recent update source: Presidential Results by Congressional Districts (Daily Kos Elections) 37

39 Table 2-17 District Voting for President and Representative, President's vote compared with vote for his party's successful House candidates Number of districts President ran President ran Year carried by president a ahead behind n.a. n.a b 158 b c 150 c d 253 d e 162 e b 207 b

40 Note: Some data from earlier years/previous versions of Vital Statistics have been updated. See errata for more detail. a. This refers to the winning presidential candidate. "President ran ahead" and "president ran behind" include districts where the congressional candidate of the presidents' party wins and the president loses the district. b. This does not include districts where the percentage of the total district vote won by House members equaled the percentage of the total district vote won by the president. c. We computed this on the basis of the actual presidential vote with John Anderson and others included. If it is recomputed on the basis of President Reagan's percentage of the major party vote, the president ran ahead in 59 districts and behind in 129 districts. d. We computed this on the basis of the actual presidential vote with Ross Perot included. If we recomputed this on the basis of President Clinton's percentage of the major party vote, the president ran ahead in 61 districts and behind in 197 districts. e. We computed this on the basis of the actual presidential vote with Ross Perot included. If we recomputed this on the basis of President Clinton's percentage of the major party vote, the president ran ahead in 102 districts and behind in 105 districts. Source: Congressional Quarterly Almanac and CQ Voting and Elections Collection (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, various years); National Journal, various issues; The Almanac of American Politics (Washington, D.C.: National Journal Group, various years). For 2000, Gregory Giroux, Congressional Quarterly; Presidential Results by Congressional Districts (Daily Kos Elections); Election 2012 Data: The Impact on the House (The Brookings Institution). Most recent update source: Presidential Results by Congressional Districts (Daily Kos Elections) 39

41 Table 2-18 Shifts in Democratic Major Party Vote in Congressional Districts, Change in Democratic percentage in congressional districts Period Change in democratic percentage nationally Greatest loss Greatest gain Variance a

42 Note: Includes only those districts in which two major party candidates competed in both elections and in which the boundaries remained unchanged for both elections. Because of massive redrawing of district lines after each decennial census, no figures are computed for , , , and Some data from earlier years/previous versions of Vital Statistics have been updated. See errata for more detail. a. Variance, the square of the standard deviation, measures the extent to which the changes in local returns differ from the change in national returns. Source: For , computed by Gary Jacobson, University of California, San Diego. Other data from Gregory Giroux, Congressional Quarterly. Most recent update source: CQ Voting and Elections Collection and the Federal Election Commission,

43 Table 2-19 Party-Line Voting in Presidential and Congressional Elections, (as a percentage of all voters) Presidential election Senate elections House elections Year Party-line voters a Defectors b Pure independents c Party-line voters a Defectors b Pure independents c Party-line voters a Defectors b Pure independents c n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a

44 Note: Percentages may not add to 100 because of rounding. a. These are party identifiers who voted for the candidate of their party. b. These are party identifiers who vote for the candidate of the other party. c. The SRC/CPS National Election Surveys use a seven-point scale to define party identification, including three categories of Independents--those who "lean" to one or the other party and those who are "pure" Independents. The "leaners" are included here among the party-line voters. Party identification here means self-identification as determined by surveys. Source: For , Gary Jacobson, University of California, San Diego. Data from Gregory Giroux, Congressional Quarterly. Data for 2006, 2010 and 2014 were compiled from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, while the remainder of the data come from the American National Election Studies. Most recent update source: American National Election Study (for 2016) and Cooperative Congressional Election Study (for 2014) 43

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