SONNY RAMASWAMY FOOD WASTE/LOSS FARMING SYSTEMS PATH FORWARD POLICIES

Transcription

1 SONNY RAMASWAMY BIOTIC ABIOTIC FOOD WASTE/LOSS FARMING SYSTEMS POLICIES PATH FORWARD

2 Interstellar, The Movie Kepler Habitable Zone Mission "The world doesn t need any more engineers. We didn t run out of planes and television sets we ran out of food. Starring: Ma/hew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway

3 Societal Challenges aka Wicked Problems Popula?on Population Food Water Environment Climate Change Energy Health Poverty

4 21 st Century Agricultural System Challenges Agricultural Compe??veness Ø Improve crop and animal agriculture; enhance farm produc?vity and income; policies; supply chain; storage; transporta?on Ecological Footprint Ø Water/land use, natural resource and environmental stewardship, greenhouse gas, global climate change, depleted soils Bioeconomy Ø Replacements for petroleum- based products and enhance community economic well being Health Ø Food safety, nutri?on, obesity, type II diabetes, cardiovascular disease, demen?a, cancer Youth, Family, and Communi?es Ø Literacy, hunger, poverty, families/children, youth development, pipeline, jobs and economic security

5 Feed, Shelter, Clothe, Fuel > 9 billion Climate change Land and water constraints Increasing urbaniza?on Environmental degrada?on Minimal ecological footprint Changing income and diets Posi?ve health outcomes

6 The Nexus

7 Bio?c Constraints Diversity of species Ø 50,000 edible; used Traits Ø Yield/produc?vity Ø Taste, quality, appearance Ø Phytonutrients Ø Yield stabiliza?on: GxExM Ø Pest/disease resistance Ø Nitrogen fixa?on Ø Genomic selec?on Ø Flood, salt tolerance Phenomics Systems/Synthe?c Biology Efficiencies Ø Feed- to- yield ra?o Ø Heat tolerance Ø Photosynthesis: C3 to C4 Ø Cisgenics vs Transgenics Innate Potato Ø Water- use: Crop per Drop Ø Nitrogen-, phosphorus- use Pre- and post- harvest losses

8 Soil deple?on Abio?c Constraints GHGs and Climate Change

9 Portrait of Global Aerosols Portrait of global aerosols produced by a GEOS-5 simulation. Dust (red) is lifted from the surface, sea salt (blue) swirls inside cyclones, smoke (green) rises from fires, and sulfate particles (white) stream from volcanoes and fossil fuel emissions. Image credit: William Putman, NASA/Goddard

10 Soil deple?on Abio?c Constraints GHGs and Climate Change Correla?on between yield and temperature Ø 4 o C increase: crop failures, malnutri?on Ø Livestock/aqua?cs responses

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12 Soil deple?on Abio?c Constraints GHGs and Climate Change Correla?on between yield and temperature Ø 4 o C increase: crop failures, malnutri?on Ø Livestock/aqua?cs responses Water quan?ty and quality Ø Droughts and impacts on yield Ø ~80% of water supply used for food produc?on Ø Ogallala Aquifer; Klamath Basin Salinity

13 Water Stress

14 Groundwater Deple?on: NASA GRACE Satellite Imagery h/p://

15 Water Conflicts Aaron Wolf, Oregon State University

16 Abio?c Constraints Soil deple?on GHGs and Climate Change Correla?on between yield and temperature Ø 4 o C increase: crop failures, malnutri?on Water quan?ty and quality Ø Droughts and impacts on yield Ø 80% of water supply used for food produc?on Ø Ogallala Aquifer; Klamath Basin Salinity Nutrient management Ø Nitrogen, phosphorous Ozone, Eutrophica?on

17 Nitrogen Loss Indicator

18 h/p:// science/2014/11/10/e7abd07c- 65f1-11e4-9fdc- d43b053ecb4d_story.html

19 Abio?c Constraints Soil deple?on GHGs and Climate Change Correla?on between yield and temperature Ø 4 o C increase: crop failures, malnutri?on Water quan?ty and quality Ø Droughts and impacts on yield Ø 80% of water supply used for food produc?on Ø Ogallala Aquifer; Klamath Basin Salinity Nutrient management Ø Nitrogen, phosphorous Ozone, Eutrophica?on Lifecycle Analysis

20 Most Significant/Immediate Abio?c Constraints Arable land Water Salinity Labor Climate Capital Logis?cs Mechaniza?on

21 Food Waste and Food Loss Ø Double food produc?on in 40 years Ø Cut loss/waste by half? Ø Impact climate change Adapted from Bonn2011 Nexus Conference: 255/understanding-the-nexus.html

22 Science 303:47-48 (2 January 2004) Path Forward: New Paradigms

23 Policies/Regula?on/Marke?ng Governance Socially beneficial policies, programs Poverty reduc?on Educa?on Trade glocaliza?on Jobs Environmental degrada?on/conserva?on

24 Path Forward: Farming systems Improved technologies Ø Produc?vity Gap (Growth Rate/Year): 1.5è 2% Coopera?ves Kibbutz? Closed loop systems Integrated/diversified Soil fer?lity Ø Nitrogen, Phosphorus Sustainable intensifica?on Ø Policies & consequences Ver?cal farming Hydroponics Aquaponics Smart Farming Internet of Agricultural Things Ø Robo?cs, sensors, sen?nels Ø UAVs Ø Prescrip?ve Farming

25 h/p://?nyurl.com/9otsnqq h/p://?nyurl.com/nmcub2m 21 st Century Farm

26 Path Forward: Discoveries Virtual water and nitrogen Transforma?ve approaches Ø FasTrack/DH Breeding Ø Perennial/mul? cropping Ø Conversion of deserts? Ø Algae in oceans? Ø Bio- /nano- technology Ø Modern Meadow, Inc. o 3- D prin?ng Ø Army s Na?ck Center Ø Lauren Oleksyk Logis?cs & mechaniza?on Pest management Big data Policy research Partnerships Ø Governments Ø NGOs Ø Private Ø Academic Research investments

27 Agricultural TFP growth by country, Former Soviet Union: 0.6% USA: 1.6% China: 2.5% Sub-Saharan Africa 0.5% Malaysia: 3.1% Average annual TFP growth > 2% 1-2% < 1% Chile: 2.3% Brazil: 2.4% High growth countries Low growth regions South Africa: 2.2% Source: Based on Fuglie (2010), ERS.

28 Humans Ma/er Consumers, businesses, groups, communi?es, towns, states and countries make decisions Ø Informa?on- dependent: Haves and Havenots Acceptance of technologies People impacts Ø Technical, Policy, Regulatory, and Social Change Social Sciences Ø Behavior, Choices, Avtudes Ø Risk and Change Nexus of Bio- Physical and Social Sciences Ø Advance science and integrate into society

29 SETTING THE TABLE FOR A HOTTER FLATTER MORE CROWDED EARTH BIOTIC ABIOTIC FOOD WASTE/LOSS FARMING SYSTEMS POLICIES PATH FORWARD

30 We ve seen how spikes in food prices can plunge millions into poverty, which in turn can cause riots that cost lives and can lead to instability. And this danger will only grow if a surging global popula?on isn t matched by surging food produc?on. So reducing malnutri?on and hunger around the world advances interna?onal peace and security. President Barack Obama, May 18, 2012 Lagi et al. 2011:

31 Current World Population 7,206,468,