A New America A New Majority A New Challenge

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Lesley Owens
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1 A New America A New Majority A New Challenge

2 Women's Voices. (WVWV) WVWV is a 501(c)3 nonprofit, nonpartisan organization and does not endorse candidates. WVWV is dedicated to increasing the share of unmarried women and other historically under-represented groups in the electorate.

3 The New America The Rising American Electorate (RAE) -- Unmarried Women, Youths (ages 18-29), African Americans, Latinos, and all other non-white races now accounts for more than half of the voting-eligible population in America (52%). While RAE turnout has increased in recent elections, they still do not vote in proportion to their share of the population.

4 Demographic Composition of the Rising American Electorate (RAE) Unmarried Women Year Olds Rest of Electorate 48% Rising American Electorate 52% 24.7% 24.7% 21.3% African Americans Latinos Other Race 11.8% 9.5% 21.3% 5.3% 11.8% 9.5% 5.3% Voting-Eligible Population Source: Census Bureau, November 2008 CPS

5 Overlap among the groups that comprise the RAE 107 million eligible voters (52% of all eligible voters) are in the RAE Latino 20 million 5.3m Latino unmarried women Unmarried Women 51 million 16.5 m young unmarried women Youth 44 million Other 11m 9.4 m AA unmarried women African American 24 million *Source: Unmarried America, 2009

6 Rising American Electorate Turnout Compared to Share of the Population 40 Proportion of 2008 Electorate Proportion of Voting-Eligible Population Unmarried Women Youth African American Latino Source: 2008 Census CPS Voter Registration Supplement

7 The Question for 2010: WHO TURNS OUT?

8 Drop-Off Voting in Mid-Term Elections Drop-off voting happens when people who voted in a presidential election do not vote in the following midterm election. Voters from historically under-represented groups are most likely to be drop-off voters. Drop-off voting among the RAE has increased in recent midterm elections.

9 Understanding potential drop-off among the RAE WVWV commissioned survey soliciting self-reporting of likelihood to vote. WVWV developed drop-off projections based on average turnout percentages in the past 4 midterm elections.

10 Self-reporting of likelihood to vote shows RAE at greater risk of dropping off Percentage of who did Total not answer 10 on a likelihood of voting scale RAE (1-10) NonRAE Year Olds 83 Unmarried women 64 Latinos 49 African Americans Source: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey commissioned by Democracy Corps, Women s Voices., and Women s Voices. Action Fund.

11 Projected Electorate in % 21.3% Rest of Electorate 53.39% Rising American Electorate 46.61% Rest of Electorate 59.08% Rising American Electorate 40.92% 11.8% 9.5% Source: Census Bureau, November 2008 CPS

12 2010: Projected RAE Drop-Off Drop-off rate for RAE voters could be DOUBLE the rate for Non-RAE voters: 37% vs. 18.5%* 22 million fewer RAE voters than in 2008 RAE drop-off dramatically changes face of electorate Source: WVWV projections based on average turnout percentages in the past 4 midterm elections

13 Reading the next 4 slides The next 4 slides are maps of the United Sates that show non-rae and RAE voter turnout in 2008 and The lightening effect shows the extent of drop-off voting in the 2010 midterm elections.

14 Voter Turnout among Non-RAE Voters 2008 Turnout

15 Voter Turnout among Non-RAE Voters Turnout

16 Voter Turnout among the RAE 2008 Turnout

17 Voter Turnout among the RAE Turnout

RAE drop-off particularly dramatic in some states.

18 RAE drop-off particularly dramatic in some states. In Missouri, RAE voters drop off at 34.4%. An estimated 406,000 votes. Non-RAE voters drop off at 11.7%. An estimated 194,000 votes. Voter Turnout in MO 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 0 RAE NonRAE

19 RAE Drop-off: State examples RAE Drop-off Non-RAE Drop-off California 31.2% (2.6 million votes) Florida 38.8% (1.6 million votes) Nevada 46.3% (241,000 votes) 12.5% (690,000 votes) 17.9% (704,000 votes) 18.8% (95,000 votes)

20 2010 Participation Democracy doesn t take off years. Voting is as important in midterms as in presidential elections. In 2010, we could see a continued expansion of democratic participation or voter turnout could revert to levels that lead to an unrepresentative political system. How We Target and Talk to RAE Voters is Key to Keeping America s New Majority Engaged.

21 Look for Updates on WVWV s Research on Drop-Off Voters WVWV is committed to keeping the RAE engaged in the democratic process and is at the forefront of analyzing who will turn out to vote in the 2010 midterm elections. Look for updates to our work on drop-off voters and the composition of the 2010 electorate at Please contact us in any of the following ways: 1707 L Street NW page@wvwv.org Suite 750 Office: Washington, DC Fax:

The Rising American Electorate

The Rising American Electorate Their Growing Numbers and Political Potential Celinda Lake and Joshua Ulibarri Lake Research Partners Washington, DC Berkeley, CA New York, NY LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066