Hispanics, Immigration and the Nation s Changing Demographics

Transcription

1 Hispanics, Immigration and the Nation s Changing Demographics Ana Gonzalez-Barrera Senior Researcher

2 Immigration and Demographics

3 U.S. Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 2015; Projected to be 78.2 Million in 2065 Source: Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for ; Pew Research Center estimates for based on adjusted census data; Pew Research Center projections for

4 U.S. Foreign-Born Share Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065 Source: Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for ; Pew Research Center estimates for based on adjusted census data; Pew Research Center projections for

5 % Latin American, Asian Immigrants Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration Source: For , Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data; for , Office of Immigration Statistics, Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, 2008, Table 2

6 Largest Immigrant Group in Each State Source: Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census. Total population and foreign-born population estimates come from the U.S. Census Bureau, Statistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States:

7 Largest Immigrant Group in Each State Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS)

8 Percent of Total U.S. Population Historically, US has been a White and Black Nation Through the 1960s almost all Americans were either White or Black % 12% 1% % 10% 3% % 11% 4% White* Black* Hispanic Asian* Source: Pew Research Center population estimates (2015). *Not Hispanic. Other races not shown

9 Percent of Total U.S. Population Historically, US has been a White and Black Nation Through the 1960s almost all Americans were either White or Black % 12% 1% % 10% 3% % 11% 4% White* Black* Hispanic Asian* This began to change with the passage of immigration legislation in 1965 that opened up the U.S to new immigration streams from Latin America and Asia % And, within a generation, dramatic changes occurred 74% 12% 10% 3% Source: Pew Research Center population estimates (2015). *Not Hispanic. Other races not shown

10 Percent of Total U.S. Population Historically, US has been a White and Black Nation Through the 1960s almost all Americans were either White or Black % 12% 1% % 10% 3% % 11% 4% White* Black* Hispanic Asian* This began to change with the passage of immigration legislation in 1965 that opened up the U.S to new immigration streams from Latin America and Asia 2000 And, within a generation, dramatic changes occurred 74% 12% 10% 3% % Today, Hispanics are the largest minority with Asians a growing presence 62% 12% 18% 6% Source: Pew Research Center population estimates (2015). *Not Hispanic. Other races not shown

11 The Change Continues as Hispanic Share Rises to 24% by 2065 Percent of Total Population 84% 81% 77% 72% 66% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 6% 8% 11% 15% White* Black* Hispanic Asian* 4% 5% % 12% 18% 6% % 13% 19% 7% % 13% 21% 9% % 13% 22% 10% % 13% 23% 12% % 13% 24% 14% Source: Pew Research Center population estimates and projections (2015). *Not Hispanic. Other races not shown

12 The Number of Immigrants Coming to the U.S. Peaked in 2005 Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of U.S. decennial census data, , and American Community Survey (IPUMS).

13 Asia Is Largest Source of Recent Arrivals Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the American Community Survey (IPUMS).

14 In millions Unauthorized immigrant population in the U.S. rises, falls, then stabilizes Note: Shading surrounding line indicates high and low points of the estimated 90% confidence interval. Data labels are for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013 and Source: Pew Research Center estimates for based on augmented American Community Survey data from Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS); for based on augmented March supplements to Current Population Survey. Estimates for 1990 from Warren and Warren (2013).

15 Six-in-Ten Unauthorized Immigrants Have Been in the U.S. at Least Ten Years Note: Data labels are for 1995, 2003, 2005, and Source: Pew Research Center estimates for based on augmented American Community Survey data from Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS); for 1995, 1998, 2000 and 2003 based on augmented March supplements to Current Population Survey.

16 More Mexican Immigrants Leaving than Coming to the U.S.

17 Net Flow from Mexico to the U.S. Negative Since Recession In thousands U.S. to Mexico Mexico to U.S. 2, ,390 1,370 1, to to to 2014 Source: Pew Research Center estimates, 2015

18 Mexican Immigrant Population in the U.S. is in Decline Since 2007 In millions Source: Pew Research Center estimates, 2015

19 Much of Mexican Immigrant Decline Driven by Fall in Mexican Unauthorized Immigrant Population In millions Note: Shading surrounding line indicates high and low points of the estimated 90% confidence interval. Data labels are for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013 and Source: Pew Research Center estimates for based on augmented American Community Survey data from Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS); for based on augmented March supplements to Current Population Survey. Estimates for 1990 from Warren and Warren (2013).

20 Demographic Changes and Voting

21 Youth, Naturalizations Main Sources of Hispanic Eligible Voter Growth since 2012

22 The Latino Electorate, En Millones Unauthorized immigrant children Source: Pew Research Center, 2012

23 Voter Turnout Rates in Presidential Elections Percent who reported voting among U.S. citizens ages 18 and older Black, non-hispanics White, non-hispanics Latinos Asian, non-hispanics Source: Pew Research Center tabulations from CPS November Supplements, various years

24 Millennials Larger Share Among Latino Eligible Voters than Other Groups in 2016

25 Geographic Dispersion of the U.S. Hispanic Population

26 Ethnic Composition of Latinos, 2013 [Listed in millions and percent of total] Mexican % Puerto Rican Cuban Salvadoran Dominican Guatemalan Colombian Spanish Other 9.5% 3.7% 3.7% 3.3% 2.4% 2.0% 1.4% 9.9% Source: Pew Research Center Analysis of the 2013 American Community Survey

27 Hispanic Origin Composition, 2010 Salvadoran Mexican Puerto Rican Cuban Dominican Other U.S. 65% 9% 16% Miami 6% 54% 33% Washington 34% 16% 6% 39% New York 13% 27% 3% 21% 31% Los Angeles 7% 78% 12% Atlanta 4% 62% 7% 21% Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations from the 2010 American Community Survey.

28 Nearly Half of U.S. Hispanics Live in the 10 Largest Metro Areas by Hispanic Population Number of Hispanics in millions Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS). U.S. Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recession

29 Nearly all U.S. Hispanics Lived in Half of Nation s 3,000+ Counties in 2014 The number of Hispanics residing in counties with at least 1,000 Latinos Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau population estimates. U.S. Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recession

30 Counties with Fast-Growing, Slow-Growing or Declining Latino Populations, Source: Pew Research Center

31 Counties Where U.S.-Born Hispanics Are the Majority among Hispanics, Source: Pew Research Center

32 Counties Where Immigrant Hispanics Are the Majority among Hispanics, Source: Pew Research Center

33 About the Hispanic Trends Project Pew Hispanic Center began 2001; rebranded in 2013 Funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts A part of the Pew Research Center Purpose is to improve understanding of the diverse Hispanic population in the U.S. and to chronicle the growing impact of this population in the U.S. Fact tank not a think tank

34 Contact Information Ana Gonzalez-Barrera Senior