The Asian American Electorate in California. Why pay attention?

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1 The American Electorate in California Karthick Ramakrishnan Professor and Associate Dean, School of Public Policy Director, NAASURVEY and AAPIDATA Why pay attention? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% American Hispanic NHPI 40% 43% 46% American Indian/Alaskan Native 27% African American Total Population 10% 15%

2 Recent Migration Trends Africa Asia Europe Mexico & Central Am South America Caribbean Other Prior to to or later Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2011 Religious Diversity American All Americans Protestant 22% 50% Catholic 19% 23% Buddhist 14% Hindu 10% Muslim 4% Sikh Other religion 3% Unaffiliated 19% 26% Source: Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life 2012

3 Appear Highly Educated U.S. Population alone AOIC Less than High School High School Some College or Associate Bachelor's Degree or Higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 American Community Survey But when you disaggregate Percent without a 2- or 4-year college degree Cambodian Laotian Hmong 66% 66% 63% Vietnamese 5 Chinese 35% Filipino Indian 20% 24% Tongan Samoan Guamanian Native Hawaiian 58% 57% 53% 49% Source: CARE 2011

4 AAPIs in Califonia 34% growth Fastest in the state Source: Advancing Justice 2012 report Comparison of size and growth in top states 2010 population Growth California) 5,556,592) 34%) New)York) 1,579,494) 35%) Texas& 1,110,666& 72%& New)Jersey) 795,163) 52%) Hawaii) 780,968) 1) Illinois& 668,694& 4& Washington) 604,251) 53%) Florida& 573,083& 72%& Virginia& 522,199& 7& Pennsylvania& 402,587& 62%& Bold = 5% or more of total population

5 Ethnic Profile of Ams in CA vs National Filipino Chinese Vietnamese Indian Korean Japanese Hmong Laotian Thai Pakistani 2% 2% 8% 7% 12% 10% 1 9% 10% 18% 19% 2 24% 27% California National Questions 1. What is the immigrant vote? 2. How does the California ethnic electorate change between Presidential and Midterm elections? 3. Why high proportion of undecided Americans? 4. With growing diversity, areas of convergence? 5. Areas of divergence?

6 What Is the Immigrant Vote? National 2% California 2% 28% 1 25% 38% 19% 34% All other 40% Share of Registered Voters What Is the Immigrant Vote? National California 2% 6% 26% 29% 66% 65% 6% 3% 7% 17% Immigrant Share of Registered Voters

7 Questions 1. What is the immigrant vote? 2. How does the California ethnic electorate change between Presidential and Midterm elections? 3. Why high proportion of undecided Americans? 4. With growing diversity, areas of convergence? 5. Areas of divergence? Presidential vs. Midterm in CA (Share of Voters) % 3% 7% 10% 9% 6% 23% 57% All other 19% 63% Share of Voters in California

8 Presidential vs. Midterm Nationally (Share of Voters) % 2% 3% 13% 9% 3% 12% 7% 73% All other 77% Share of Voters in California Voting Rates Among Adult Citizens (Presidential vs. Midterm in CA) % 56% 49% 35% 48% 34% 62% 44% 57% 47%

9 Registration Rates Among Adult Citizens (Presidential vs. Midterm in CA) % 68% 57% 52% 57% 50% 68% 55% 66% 6 Turnout Rates Among Registered Voters (Presidential vs. Midterm in CA) % 82% 86% 68% 83% 68% 9 80% 88% 77%

10 Questions 1. What is the immigrant vote? 2. How does the California ethnic electorate change between Presidential and Midterm elections? 3. Why high proportion of undecided Americans? 4. With growing diversity, areas of convergence? 5. Areas of divergence? High Proportion of Immigrant Voters National California 2% 6% 26% 29% 66% 65% 6% 3% 7% 17% Immigrant Share of Registered Voters

11 Questions 1. What is the immigrant vote? 2. How does the California ethnic electorate change between Presidential and Midterm elections? 3. Why high proportion of undecided Americans? 4. With growing diversity, areas of convergence? 5. Areas of divergence? Many Areas of Convergence o Presidential voting (exit polls) o Universal health care (NAAS 2008, 2012) o Preserving social safety net (Pew, NAAS 2012) o Support higher taxation (NAAS 2012) o Support pathway to citizenship (NAAS 2012*) o Support affirmative action (NAAS12, Field14, APIAVote/AAJC14)

12 Questions 1. What is the immigrant vote? 2. How does the California ethnic electorate change between Presidential and Midterm elections? 3. Why high proportion of undecided Americans? 4. With growing diversity, areas of convergence? 5. Areas of divergence? Areas of Divergence o Feelings of commonality o Residential segregation o Electing candidates (can be zero-sum) o Activism on affirmative action

13 Lessons from 2014 o Bright spots o Record Number of APIs in Congress, thanks to California o Bera hangs on, Lieu wins o San Diego Council District 4 o 42% turnout among RV o Statewide o 43% of RV (Political Data) o 38% for Am Lessons from 2014 o Mediocre News o Share of electorate remains steady (Political Data) o Lots of spending in CD-17, but no difference from statewide turnout o Marginal change from 2010 in terms of vote share o New dynamics o GOP wins in Orange County

14 Looking Ahead o What will it take to increase turnout? o API elected picture will continue to improve o Mostly winning in non-api districts o Language access remains important o 2020 and redistricting Thank You! karthick@ucr.edu