1Z.IJ TJER.S Logleton Institute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey / ([he,t&-icbgcr/eagleton POLL

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1 to property attribute this copyrighted information to the Star-Ledger/Eagleton P0ILK editions. Electronic media may release after 5:00 p.m. Monday, November 7. We ask users A story based ott the survey findings presented in this release and background memo will appear RELEASE INFORMATION RELEASE: SI/EP 22-1 (EP 72-1) OR BOB CARTER in Tuesda9s Star-Ledger. Other newspapers may also use this information in their Tuesday FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, 8, 1988 CONTACT: CUFF ZUKIN C 1Z.IJ TJER.S Logleton Institute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey / THE STATE UNrEPSLD, OF NEW JB ATTENTION RADIO STATIONS: Audio is available after 5:00 p.m. on Monday, November 7 from (201) (Rutgers Feature Phone). -more with positive impressions outnumbering negative ones by a margin of 55 to 36 percent, ratings of both men over the last two weeks. While Bush remains a fairly popular figure, have caught up with the candidates images--there has been a decline in the favorability The recent sharpening of Dukakis response to Bush s continuing attacks seems to larger than it was at the end of October. with other prominent Republicans such as President Reagan. His lead is now about 5 points Bush appears to have benefitted from his recent visits to the Garden State, along New Jerseyans--including 963 classified as likely voters --were interviewed by telephone. The survey was conducted between last Thursday and Sunday, when 1,200 registered candidate. 39 percent, with 10 percent of likely voters undecided and not even leaning towards either In the Senate race Lautenberg leads his Republican opponent Pete Dawkins by SI. to remaining 6 percent undecided. challenger Michael Dukakis by a margin of 56 to 37 percent among likely voters, with the A new survey by the Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll finds Bush leading Democratic Republican tide and also appears headed for victory at the poiis today. George Bush appears to be riding a cresting wave to victory here in New Jersey, while Democratic incumbent Senator Frank Lautenberg has so far been able to stem an increasingly NEW JERSEY FOR BUSH, L4LUTENEERG ([he,t&-icbgcr/eagleton POLL

2 Cliff Zukin, director of the Poll commented, Coming out of the convention Bush set of positive ones by a margin of 50 to 41 percent. favorable evaluations of his Democratic rival. Negative impressions of Dukakis now run ahead the current survey finds that for the first time more New Jerseyans offer unfavorable than ( -more- Zukin said, Lautenberg s switch away from attacking Dawkins to talking about his first term record has allowed him to reap the fuller benefits of incumbency. With a healthy unfavorable views was 29 to 22 percent in October. general now outnumber negative ones by 44 to 35 percent. The margin of favorable to an almost equal rise in both negative and positive opinions. Positive impressions of the retired The percentage not expressing an opinion of Dawkins also declined dramatically over the past two weeks--from 50 to 22 percent. Unlike with his opponent, however, there has been Senator dropped from 44 to 18 percent The new survey may reflect the impact of Lautenberg s more positive focus in his the October figures of 38 to 17 percent. The percentage without an opinion of the one-term recent TV ads. Favorable impressions of him run ahead of negative ones by better than a twoto-one margin. The split of 57 percent positive to 26 percent negative is a major change from Dawkins. there appears to have been a great deal of movement back and forth in that race, with a large In the Senate contest, while Lautenberg s 12 point lead is the same as in late October, number of people having formed opinions of the candidates over the last two weeks. New has simply run a much better campaign than Dukakis. middle class and is now making inroads into the traditionally Democratic working class. He a clear message about why there should be a change of government. Bush first captured the to define Dukakis negatively, keep him on the defensive and prevent him from communicating the themes of the campaign and achieved the status of a quasi-incumbent. He has managed Jerseyans now express a highly positive view of Lautenberg and offer a mixed assessment of EP72-1 (SL/EP22-1) Page 2

3 necessary. The basic dynamic behind both the presidential and Senate races is Things are Poll figures show the keys to both the Bush and Lautenberg leads can be found in the going well. Why change? economy the challenger always has a difficult task to convince the electorate that change is Copyright: November 8, 1988, The Eagleton Institute and Newark Star-Ledger the mood of voters having become slightly more Republican over the course of the campaign. remaining third saying they were undecided. The Democratic advantage narrowed to 31 to 33 intending to vote for Democrats by a 39 to 37 percent margin, with one-quarter still saying they are undecided. plurality. Those intending to vote for Republican House candidates outnumbered those candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in their district 36 to 30 percent, with the percent in October, and the new November figures show for the first time a slight Republican In September slightly more said they planned to vote for the Democratic rather than Republican There has been a shift in what poii officials call the climate of the electorate, with of self-identified Republicans. Republicans, a drop from 72 percent, with Lautenberg claiming the votes of just over a quarter 10 points from October. Dawkins, however, now gets the endorsement of only 65 percent of Lautenberg now receives the support of 73 percent of those calling themselves Democrats, down as the candidates have become better known, voters preferences have become less party-based. two weeks, and Lautenberg benefits from a 54 to 46 division among these late deciders. Also, Fully 40 percent report deciding who to vote for in the Senate contest within the last this segment of the electorate. strong 15 point advantage (50 to 35 percent) over Dawkins among the 40 percent who make up nearly 2 to 1 (60 to 32 percent) among this critical group. Lautenberg holds a smaller, but still split among the state s Independent voters. In the presidential race, Bush commands a lead of EP72-1 (SL/EP22-1) Page 3

4 Figures are also presented for likely voters based on a projected turnout of between 75 and 80 percent of The latest Sta.r-Ledger/Eagleton Poll was conducted between November 3 and 6, 1988, with a statewide sample of 1,200 New Jersey adults who reported being registered to vote and saying they would definitely or probably BACKGROUND MEMO-RELEASE SL/Efl2-1 (EP72-i). TUESDAY vote in the November 8 election. The sampling error associated with this sample size is ±2.9 percent. ( I.LJ1tiEF.S Eagleton Institute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey / THE STATE UNTvS?SffY CF NEW JEPSY September (1019) October (1202) September (971) (800) Novembcr % 29% 15% 1% 101% (1200) L21 Some Little/None No Opinion IQI21 In) How much interest do you have in this Presidential election--a lot, some, a little or none at all? of error inherent in any study of public opinion. The questions and figures referred to in this release are as follows: scientific sample taken from that population. Sampling error does not take into account other possible sources Sampling error is the probable difference in results between interviewing everyone in the population versus a registered voters. The sample size of this group is 963; the with a sampling error of ±3-3 percent. Cflic tar-jlcbgcr/eagleton POLL

5 TOTAL (1189) 19 LIKELY VOTERS 35% 2% 6% 2% 54% 99% (952) 19 INITIALLY UNDECIDED Chooses Leans to Pur& Leans Chooses Nov Oct Sept had to choose only between Dulcakis and Bush who would you vote for? ) Dukalds Dukakis Undecided to Bush Bush I91 {j) jff Diff Diff George Bush, the Republican; who would you vote for? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS OTHER, PROBE: But if you II the election for President were held today and you had to choose between Michael Dukakis, the Democrat; and DIVISION OF THE VOTh AMONG LIKELY VOTERS WAS: BUSH 59; DUKAKIS 41. AS OF SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH UNDECIDED VOTERS ALLOCATED, THE TWO PARTY surveys are included in these composite figures. Bush column. Negative numbers indicate Dukakis advantage. Both waves of the September and October Differences are the percentages in chooses Dulcalcis column subtracted from the percentage in the chooses --Total (790) 14 --Total (998) Independent (283) September Republican (236) 92 --Democrat (241) non-white (174) October by Panv --Likely 39 1 S (631) 13 --white (997) (187) (513) (268) r (197) earlier/knew all along (475) withinlastnionthor (350) withinlastweelcor (203) 8 33 By Decision Time --male (586) female (603) Sex --Republican (382) Democrat (352) Independent (410) Pp EP72-1 (SL/EP22-1) - 2 -

6 --Total ) (1200) --Likely Voter 27% 30% 14% 21% 8% 100% (963) GEORGE BUSH 3&x Somewhat Somewhat iy Opinion I11 Oil FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE No Is your general impression of (Bush/Dukakis) favorable or unfavorable. [F FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE, PROBE: Is that very (favorable/unfavorable) or only somewhat (favorable/unfavorable)? Next, how about... ( --Total (1200) --Total (800) --Total (1019) --Democrat (355) --Independent (415) September Likely Voters (638) Republican (383) Total by Pany --Likely Voter (963) MICHAEL DUKAKIS --Total (1019) --Likely Voter (637) --Republican (383) --Total (799) --Independent (415) --Democrat ) September 1988 Tot p1 by Pqjtp EP72-1 (SL/EP22-1) - 3 -

7 LIKELY VOTERS 6% 12% 34% 46% 2% 100% (852) NOVEMSER Last Last Week Last Month Knew Don t Few Dan or Two or Two All Along Know Thi1 Qil When did you decide who you would vote for in the last few days, in the last couple of weeks, in the last month or two, or did you know all along? (800) % 35% 16% 10% 2% 100% (1200) A Let Some Know flgj A Don t election--a lot, some, a little, or none at all? There is also an election for the U.S. Senate in New Jersey next month. How much interest do you have in this (718) --Republican (368) Total liv PoAv --Dukakis (412) Total 1w Vote Choice --Bush (640) TOTAL (1052) --Democrat (308) --Independent (358) EP72-1 (SL/EP22-1) - 4 -

8 1988 Lputenj erv Lautenbera Undecided to Daw1dn Dawidni IQl1 Lu) ciooses Leans to Purr Leans Chooses INITIALLY UNDECIDED Lautenberg? UNDECIDED VOTERS WERE ThEN ASKETh Do you lean more towards Dawkins, or more towards Democrat? ( If the election was today, would you vote for Pete Dawkins, the Republican; or Frank Lautenberg, the DIVISION OF THE VOTE AMONG LIKELY VOTERS WAS: LAUTENBERG 56; DAWKINS 44 AS OF SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH UNDECIDED VOTERS ALLOCATED, THE TWO PARTY MAY (556) FEBRUARY (575) SEPTEMBER (765) October by Party October by lime of Decision --knew all along (211) --last month or two (137) --lastweekortwo (234) --Democrat (234) --October (389) --Independent (279) --October (385) Survey Wave --Republican (231) --Likely Voters (627) --TotalRegistered (774) OCTOBER1988 knew all along (302) --last month or two (241) --lastweekortwo (385) Total 1w lime of Decision --Republican (379) --Democrat (350) Total by Party TOTAL (1183) --Independent (408) LIKELY VOTERS 48% 3% 10% 3% 36% 100% (954) EP72-1 (SL/EP22-1) - 5 -

9 LIKELY VOTERS 23% 38% 17% 9% 13% 100% (963) YI3 Somewhat Somewhat y Opinion IQthI (U) FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE No UNFAVORABLE, PROBE: Is that very (favorable/unfavorable) or somewhat (favorable/tmfavorabte)r is your general impression of (Lautenberg/Dawkins) favorable or unfavorable? (IF FAVORABLE OR LAUTENBERG favorable or unfavorable, or don t you have an opinion about him? * In September and October the following question was asked: Is your general impression of (Lautenberg/Dawkins) Februaryl (586) May (611) TOTAL (1200) --Democrat (355) --Democrat (242) --Independent (289) September (789) --Total Registered (799) --Republican (237) October Lw Pwt i Total by Party --Likely Voters (638) LIKELY VOTERS (963) --Republican (383) --Independent (415) DAWKINS Februaryl98s (587) --Democrat (242) September (789) --Likely Voters (638) --Total Registered (798) --Republican (383) --Republican (236) Total by Party October hi Pasty TOTAL (1200) --Democrat (355) --Independent (415) --Independent (289) May (611) EP72-1 (SL/EP22-1) - 6 -

10 TOTAL (961) Few Days or Two or Two All Mona Know jgj Last Last Week Last Month Knew Don t two, or did you know all along? When did you decide who you would vote for--in the last few days, in the last couple of weeks, in the last month or ( LIKELY VOTERS 12% 28% 25% 32% 3% 100% (802) --Democrat (355) --Republican (383) --Democrat (241) --Republican (237) September Total (990) TOTAL (1200) --Independent (415) --Independent (290) October liv Party LIKELY VOTERS 37% 39% 24% 100% (963) --Total (800) --Likely Voters (623) Total liv Part, Democrat Republican No Opinion IQlill Lr) Undecided/ And do you plan to vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate for the US. House of Representatives in your district?* --Likely Voters (519) --Total Registered (623) --Republican (328) --Independent (312) OCTOBER Lautenberg (547) --Democrat (297) --Dawkins (414) Total hi Party Total hi Vote Choice EP72-1 (SL/EP22-1) - 7 -