RUTGERS CONTACT: CLIFF ZUKIN or

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1 With about five weeks remaining before the election Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter run almost evenly among registered voters in New Jersey. However, among those most likely to vote in the election, Reagan holds a 5 percentage point lead over Carter, according to an Eagleton Institute The Rutgers-based Poll, conducted during the last half of September with 967 registered voters, found 33 percent saying they would vote for Reagan, 32 percent for Carter and 22 percent for Independent candidate John Anderson. Eleven percent said they were undecided. Reagan led Carter by 36 to 31 percent, with Anderson getting 21 percent, among the 654 people Eagleton determined were most likely to vote in the election. New Jersey s registered voters saw different strengths and weak nesses in the candidates characters. Reagan was viewed as a stronger Reagan, 24 percent Carter and 17 percent Anderson. Reagan was seen as decisive by 40 percent, compared to 29 percent who described Carter in this way and 21 percent who said Anderson was the most decisive. Carter held a clear advantage in experience, with 61 percent saying he is the most experienced candidate, dompared to 24 percent for Reagan and only eight percent for Anderson. More also felt that Carter was more- Attention Radio Stations: Audio is available on 10/1/80, 12 noon from (201) (Rutgers Feature Phone). leader and more decisive than the other candidates, while Carter was given higher marks for experience, honesty and intelligence. Reagan FOR RELEASE: WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 1, 1980, RUTGERS CONTACT: CLIFF ZUKIN or THE STATE UNIVERSITY JANICE BALLOU RELEASE: 41-1 THE EAGLETON INSTITUTE OF POLITICS WOOD LAWN.NEI LSON CAMPUS.NEW EIRUNSWICK.NEW JERSEY / THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: REAGAN HOLDS NARROW LEAD survey released today. and Carter were rated evenly in terms of ability. When asked which candidate was a stronger leader 45 percent chose

2 EP41 1 Page 2 best described by the trait honesty (44 percent) than either Reagan (25 percent) or Anderson (15 pezcent). The candidates were rated more evenly on intelligence, with 35 percent feeling Carter the most in telligent compared to 26 percent for both Reagan and Anderson. The phrase a man of ability was found by 36 percent to best fit Reagan, by 33 percent to best fit Carter, and by 20 percent to best describe Anderson. Contrary to popular belief, the Eagleton survey found John Anderson s candidacy drawing slightly more support from Reagan than Carter among New Jerseyans. Forty-two percent of Anderson s supporters said they would vote for Reagan and 35 percent for Carter if the election were only between the two major party candidates. The remainder did not express a preference. The survey also showed Anderson s support to be softer than either Carter s or Reagan s. Fully half of those supporting Anderson said they might change their mind before election day, compared to 30 percent of Carter and Reagan supporters. Cliff Zukin, Director of the Poll, commented, New Jersey s 17 electoral votes are still a prize to be won. If Anderson s supporters feel he can t win we will see them moving to Carter or Reagan in the last few weeks of the campaign. With almost half of the registered voters in the state either undecided or saying they might change their minds before election day, we can expect to see all three candidates targeting New Jersey and making major efforts in the state. The President s refusal to join Ronald Reagan and John Anderson in the Septenther 21 debate appears to have hurt him slightly. Carter more

3 EP41 l Page 3 held a slight lead among registered voters interviewed between September 11 and receiving 34 percent to 32 percent for Reagan and 20 percent for Anderson. Interviews with an equal number of registered voters after the debate, between September 22 and 27, found Reagan leading with 34 percent to 30 percent for Carter and 25 percent for Anderson. Anderson clearly helped his cause by his showing in the debate, but less than half of New Jersey s registered voters --42 percent--said they had watched the debate, and only half said they had read anything in newspapers about the debate afterwards. One-quarter of those inter viewed after the debate said their impression of Anderson had become more favorable based on what they saw or read about the debate, while only seven percent said they had become less favorable. One-third said their views of Anderson did not change, while the remaining third said they had neither seen nor read anything about the debate and were not asked the question. Reagan s performance drew mixed reviews. Most 44 percent--said the debate did not change their impression of him, while 10 percent viewed Reagan more favorably and 13 percent less favor ably after the debate. About a third-- 35 percent--said they felt less favorable toward Carter as a result of his refusal to debate, while only five percent said they felt more favorable towards him. Twenty-eight percent said his unwillingness to debate had not changed their views of Carter, while the 32 percent who had seen or read nothing about the debate were not asked the question. While the debate helped Anderson, said Zukin, it did not give ( his campaign t1e breakthrough he was hoping more for. Too many of the people

4 collar workers, with Anderson receiving 18 percent. Reagan led among white collar workers with 33 percent to Carter s 30 percent and Anderson s 27 percent. Self employed persons were divided 49 percent for Reagan, 22 percent for Anderson and 19 percent for Carter. -more EP41 1 Page 4 he needed to reach chose not to watch. While Carter was slightly hurt, it appears that his strategy of boycotting the debate to deny Anderson visability and legitimacy was largely successful. The Eagleton survey showed Reagan doing a better job of keeping Republicans than Carter was doing of keeping Democrats. Carter also showed poorly among the state s independent voters. Three quarters of registered Republicans said they planned to vote for Reagan, while 11 percent preferred Anderson and 8 percent Carter. The remaining 6 per cent were undecided. Democrats were divided 60 percent for Carter, 17 percent for Anderson and 14 percent for Reagan, with 8 percent undecided. Anderson led among independent voters, with 34 percent. He was followed by Reagan with 30 percent; while Carter trailed badly at 19 percent. Sixteen percent of the independents said they were undecided. Many New Jersey voters were found to be casting a negative vote - C concerned about keeping one of the candidates out of the oval office. Fifty-eight percent of Carter supporters said they were voting more for Carter, but 41 percent said they were voting more against the other candidates. Barely half--52 percent--of Reagan s supporters said they were casting a positive vote for him, while 40 percent said they were voting negatively against the other candidates. Anderson s support is made up chiefly of those disenchanted with Reagan and Carter. Only one third of Anderson supporters said they were voting more for him, while 60 percent said they were voting more against the others. The Eagleton survey also found: workers. Carter led Reagan by.44 to 24 percent among blue - Reagan has not yet made dramatic inroads with blue collar

5 EP41 l Page 5 - Reagan led among whites by a margin of 37 percent to Carter s 26 percent and Anderson s 24 percent. Three quarters of non whites supported Carter, 11 percent Anderson and 6 percent Reagan. -- Half--51 percent--of the self-identified conservatives interviewed backed Reagan while 24 percent supported Carter and 17 percent Anderson. Liberals favored Carter by a margin of 47 percent to Anderson s 28 percent and Reagan s 17 percent. Moderates were evenly split with 32 percent favoring Reagan, 30 percent Carter and 23 percent Anderson. The data presented in this release are based on two independent samples of New Jerseyans 18 years and older. All interviewing was done by telephone. One group was interviewed in the week immediately before the Anderson--Reagan debate; the other in the week immediately following the debate. The first sample of 600 was interviewed between September 11 and 18, and included 487 people who reported being registered to vote. The second wave of interviewing was done between September 22 and 27. to vote. This included 600 people, 479 of whom said they were registered Only the responses of registered voters are reported in this release. In theory one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results based on the both samples differ by no more than 4 percentage points in either direction from what would have been obtained had all registered voters in the state been interviewed. the independent samples is ±6 percent. The sampling error for each of The error for smaller sub groups is larger, depending on the number of respondents in the sub group. The theoretical margin of error does not take into account additional error resulting from various practical difficulties involved in taking any survey of public opinion.

6 % (857) %(99) -- White -- Non-white PRIOR SUPPORT % (374) - Prior Carter % (441) - Prior Reagan % (152) Prior Other MAY, % (834) 0 RUTGERS THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW JERSEY THE EAGLETON INSTITUTE OF POLITICS WOOD LAWN NEt LSON CAMPUS. NEW BRUNSWICI(.NEW JERSEY / BACKGROUND MEMO--RELEASE 41-1, WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1, 1980 The questions and figures referred to in this release follow. The numbers in parentheses are the number of respondents answering each question. The figures presented in this release refer to only those saying they are registered to vote in New Jersey. Who would you vote for if the election was a three way contest between Jimmy Carter, the Democrat; Ronald Reagan, the Republican and John Anderson running as an Independent? Undecided! Will Carter Anderson Other Not Vote Total (n) LIKELY VOTERS % (967) % (654) % (487) % (479) - Sept % (247) DEBATE VIEWERS % % Democrats Independents % Republicans EDUCATION % (137) -- Less than H.S % (321) % (507) -- High School Grad More than H.S. 26 IDEOLOGY % (187) % (493) -- Liberal -- Moderate % (226) -- Conservative OCCUPATION % (213) -- Blue Collar % (439) % (131) - White Collar -- Self Employed % (130) -- Retired RACE

7 % (486) Sept. lli % (480) Sept % -- Democrats % -- Independents % Republicans EP4I l 2 The 236 registered voters who said they would vote for Anderson in a 3-way election said they would vote as follows if the election was only between Carter and Reagan: Would Carter Rea Other Not Vote Undecided Total % (236) Would you say you are voting more for (respondent s choice of Carter/ Reagan/Anderson), or more against the others? Both for Don t For Against & Against Know Total % (287) Carter Supporters % (325) % (236) Reagan Supporters Anderson Supporters Are you very firm about your choice, or do you think you might change your mind before election day? Firm Ni Change Undecided Total j % (967) Carter Supporters loo (27) 100% (325) 100% (236) Reagan Supporters Anderson Supporters There are a number of features some people feel are important for a President to have. Regardless of which candidate you favor, please tell me which one -Carter, Reagan or Anderson is best described by each word I read. Don t Know Total (il Intelligent 3 100% (967) Sept None All Anderson Carter Reagan % (486) % (480) pemocrats % Independents -- Republicans Honest % % % (967)

8 EP Decisive None All Reagan Anderson Carter A Strong Leader Sept Independents Democrats Republicans Sept. ldib Democrats Independents Republicans 7 DOD ft Know Total 2 100% Don t C ) Know tlal (n) % (967) % (486) % (480) % % % % (967) % (486) % (480) % % % Experienced Carter Reagan Anderson All None - pt Democrats Independents -- Republicans A Man of Abi1iZ Sept Democrats Independents % (486) % (480) % % % % % (967) % (486) % (480) , % % -- Republicans

9 EP41 l 4 Registered voters interviewed following the debate were asked the ollowing questions. Did you watch the recent Presidential debate on TV or listen to it on the radio? Yes No Total (n) % (481) Did you see any newspaper stories on the debate after it was held? Yes No Total (n) % (480) Those who had not seen, heard or read anything about the debate were not asked the following four questions. Who did you think got the best of the debate? Carter Reagan Anderson Nobo4y Don t Know Not Asked Total (n) % (480) Based on what you saw (or read) in the debate, did your overall impression of John Anderson become more favorable, less favorable; or didn t your view of Anderson change much? More Less No Don t Not Favorable Favorable Change Know Asked Total (rl % (480) How about your impression of Ronald Reagan -did this become more favorable, less favorable or not really change? More Less No Don t Not Favorable Favorable Change Know Asked Total (n) % (480) Did Jimmy Carter s refusal to take part in the debate make you feel more favorable toward him, less favorable, or didn t your view of Carter really change? More Less No Don t Not Favorable Favorable Change Know Asked Total % (480) This group of (654) (54% of the total sample) are those most likely to vote in the election. Likely voters were determined by responses Co eight questions. These in cluded interest, perceived closeness of the race, perceived importance of the election outcome, registration status, reported voting intention and questions about past voting behavior. 2These are people who said they either watched the Sept. 21 debate between Reagan and Anderson on TV, or listened to it on the radio. 3Eefore being asked which of the three candidates they favored, respondents were asked to choose only between Reagan and Carter. Prior Reagan includes those who said they would vote for Reagan in a two person election, Prior Carter includes those who said they would vote for Carter. Prior Other includes those who said they were undecided, would vote for another candidate or would not vote. ( 4The figures presented here differ slightly from those reported in release 40 1 of May 22. \ At that time Eagleton reported figures for the entire sample. Those figures have been adjusted in this release to include only those saying they were registered to vote in New Jersey. This makes direct comparison over time (with Poll 40) meaningful. (The total sample figures, as reported in May, were Carter, 29%; Reagan, 29%, Anderson, 21%).