ante tar-1cbger/eagleton POLL

Transcription

1 ground memo will appear in Sunday s StarLedger. Other newspapers may also A story based on the survey findings presented in this release and back RELEASE INFORMATION RELEASE: SL/EP192 EP692) BOB CARTER FOR RELEASE: SUNDAY, JIJNE 12, 1988 CONTACT: CLIFF ZUKIN OR RIJ1t3EWE?.S Eagleton Institute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey / r, 4c S ATi srvws1v OF NEV JERV more 1988 from: 201) Rutgers Feature Phone) Audio is available after 5:00 p.m. on Saturday, June 11, ATTENTION RADIO STATIONS: President Bush are decidedly mixed. impressions of Governor Dukakis are highly favorable while views of Vice yet feel strongly about either presidential candidate. However, initial registered voters between May 18 and 26, shows that most New Jerseyans do not The survey, conducted by telephone with a statewide sample of 611 Jackson were added to the Democratic ticket. primary, also finds the race would become a virtual dead heat if Jesse The latest StarLedger/Eagleton Poll, conducted before last Tuesday s a presidential election since the summer s nominating conventions. New Jersey has not voted Democratic in opponent George Bush among Garden State voters as the candidates point toward Democrat Michael Dukakis holds a 14 point lead over his Republican JACKSON HURTS TICKET IN JERSEY IMIKAXIS BEGINS 88 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN WITh 14 POINT LEAD; Electronic media may release after 5:00 p.m. Sunday, June 12. newspapers may also use this information in their Monday editions. Dawkins Senate racewill appear in Monday s StarLedger June 13). Other on Friday June 10. A story based on the second releasethe Lautenberg NOTE; This is one of fl StarLedger/Eagleton Poll releases being distributed copyrighted information to the StarLedger/Eagleton Poll. after 5:00 p.m. Saturday, June 11. We ask users to properly attribute this use this information in their Sunday editions. Electronic media may release ante tar1cbger/eagleton POLL

2 are likely to vote in November s election, with 14 percent undecided. The support from 44 percent of voters. against Bush and mainstream Republican Robert Dole, with each ticket receiving Democratic edge completely disappears when a DukakisJackson ticket is paired Dukakis holds a 50 to 36 percent advantage over Bush among those saying they EP692 SL/EPI92) Page 2 j more surprising margin among those in the 30 to 49 year old age bracket. seen in 1984, a return of blue collar voters to the Democratic camp, and Dukakis behavior of the state s independent voters, an even larger gender gap than was Poll figures identify four keys to Dukakis current 14 point lead: the time. candidates are held by only onequarter to onethird of the electorate at this easily as we move to the parties conventions this summer. Firm opinions of the both candidates. This means they are quite soft, and can change quickly and somewhat favorable outnumber those of very favorable by about two to one for voters images of both candidates are not well defined. Assessments of It is also important to note that it is very edrly in the process and that administration while carrying some of the baggage for its failures. appears to be getting none of the credit for accomplishments of the Reagan Bush, uncontested most of the way, emerged with substantial negatives. Bush that Dukakis came through the nomination battle virtually unscathed while George Cliff Zukin, director of the poll, commented, It is somewhat surprising opinion. with onequarter offering no opinion. More held an unfavorable than favorable Bush run ahead of negative ones by a much smaller margin of 42 to 32 percent, have formed no impression of the Massachusetts Democrat. Positive assessments of view of Jesse Jackson by 43 to 33 percent, with 25 percent again expressing no lopsided margin of 58 to 14 percent, with the remaining 28 percent saying they Statewide, favorable impressions of Dukakis outnumber unfavorable ones by a

3 Hen now split their vote down the middle 45 percent Bush to 43 percent receives the support of only 77 percent of Republicans. while Dukakis is the choice of 83 percent of the Democrats interviewed, Bush this same group favoring Dukakis by a margin of 49 to 36 percent. Additionally, Ronald Reagan over Walter Mondale in August of The current survey finds Independents divided their preferences by a margin of 63 to 25 percent for more Michael Dukakis than George Bush at the outset of the campaign. automatic continuation, and that they are a little bit more comfortable with record of the Republicans over the last eight years as sufficient to warrant not transferable to Vice President Bush, that New.Jerseyans do not view the But at this point it is clear that Ronald Reagan s popularity and appeal is candidates and react to their visions of the country s future. candidates are selected and people come to form more concrete images of the The conventions will be more important than usual, as Vice Presidential not yet sharpened, we should expect a number of changes as the campaign unfolds. With voters knowing so little about either man, and with the issues of debate relative positions of the candidates as they begin the presidential campaign. Zukin said that the poll figures are best viewed simply as a reading of the survey shows a commanding 62 to 31 percent lead for Dukakis among this age group. turnout is generally highest, besting Mondale by 59 to 31 percent. The current 1984, his strength was particularly apparent in the 30 to 49 year cohort, where While Reagan ran ahead of Mondale among all age groupings in the summer of group at the start of the 1988 campaign. coalition Michael Dukakis holds a 36 point advantage over George Bush among this among blue collar workers traditionally a cornerstone of the Democratic Whereas in August 1984 Ronald Reagan enjoyed a 13 percentage point plurality points57 to 27 percent, with the remainder undecided. Dukakis. Women, however, give the Democrat a whopping plurality of 30 percentage EP692 SL/EP192) Page 3

4 hopelessly crosspressured. margin over Bush 49 to 36 percent, with the remainder either undecided or on the tickets evidently cancelled each other out: Dukakis retained his same Kean for the Republicans. The presence of these popular Garden State politicians Dukakis and Senator Bill Bradley for the Democrats versus Bush and Governor Torn Copyright: June 12, 1988, The Eagleton Institute and Newark StarLedger The survey also asked voters to choose between two home state tickets 30 EP692 SL/EP192) Page 4

5 sampling error of ± percent. Sampling error is the probable difference in definitely or probably vote in November s election, and are subject to a respondents who reported being registered to vote and saying they would interviewed by telephone. Figures in this release are based on the 611 when a random sample of 800 New Jerseyafls ages 18 years and older was The latest StarLedaerJEagleton poll was conducted between May 18 and 26, 1988, BACKGROUND MEMORELEASE SL/EPI92 EP692). SUNDAY. JUNE RUTGERS Eogleton Institute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey / TAIt U4 SN OF NEW RV Walter George Bush ) Mondale Ronald Reagan ) ) Auaust Republican Democrat Independent ) ) ) TOTAL ) JESSE JACKSON Democrat Independent Republican ) ) ) TOTAL ) 7 MICHAEL DUKAKIS Republican ) Democrat Independent ) ) TOTAL 15% 27% 14% 18% 26% 100% 611) GEORGE BUSH Very Somewhat Somewhat Very Opinion Total.Lnl FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE No if you have no opinion about him. FOR EACH FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE, PROBE: read, please tell me if your general impression is favorable, unfavorable, or I m going to read you the names of some of the candidates. For each name I other possible sources of error inherent in any study of public opinion. The questions and figures referred to in this release are as follows: Is that very or somewhat favorable/unfavorable?) sample taken from that population. Sampling error does not take into account results between interviewing everyone in the population versus a scientific The 1arTLCbgCr/EAGLETON POLL

6 TOTAL 50% 4% 6% 4% 36% 100% 570)* Chooses Leans to Pure Leans Chooses INITIALLY UNDECIDED toward Bush?) UNDECIDED/DEPENDS/DON T KNow, PROBE: Do you lean more toward Dukakis or presidential candidates are, would you vote for Dukakis or Bush? IF Democrats and George Bush for the Republicans. Without knowing who the vice Dukakis Dukakis Undecided to Bush Bush Total j Suppose the presidential election is between Michael Dukakis, for the EP692 SL/EP192) 2 Democrat Independent Republican ) ) ) TOTAL 50% 36% 14% 100% 57O)* MAY 1988 Dukakis Bush Undecided Total jj Independent Republican ) ) Democrat ) TOTAL 32% 55% 13% 100% 619) AUGUST 198 CONPARISONS: Mondale Reagan Undecided Total LaX blue white retired ) not employed ) self employed ) collar ) collar; Occupation Respondent female ) male ) Sex ) white nonwhite ) Race ) ) ) ) Democrat ) Independent ) Republican )

7 34 TOTAL 44% 4% 7% 2% 44% 101% 571)* Jackson Jackson Undecided Dole Dole Total jj Dukakis/ Dukakis/ Pure Bush/ Bush/ or more toward Bush?) Dole? IF UNDECIDED/DEPENDS/DON T KNOW, PROBE: Do you lean more toward Dukakis vice presidential nominees. Would you vote for Dukakis and Jackson Bush and and George Bush for the Republicans, with Jesse Jackson and Robert Dole as the Suppose the presidential election is between Michael Dukakis for the Democrats Chooses Leans to Leans Chooses Independent ) Republican ) Democrat ) TOTAL 12% 42% 33% 11% 3% 101% 800) Excellent Good Only Fair Poor Opinion Total In! No good, only fair or poor? How would you rate the job Ronald Reagan is doing as President excellent, plan to vote for some other candidate. * Excludes those saying they will not vote in the presidential election or Democrat Republican ) Independent ) ) TOTAL 49% 4% 7% 5% 36% 101% 570)* Dukakis/ Dukakis/ Pure Bush/ Bush/ Bradley Bradley Undecided Kean Mean Total 121 Chooses Leans to Leans Chooses more toward Bush?) IF UtDECIDED/DEPENDS/D0N T KNOW, PROBE: Do you lean more toward Dukakis or Dukakis and Bill Bradley against a Republican slate of George Bush and Tom Mean? Finally, how about if you had to choose between a Democratic ticket of Michael Republican Independent ) ) Democrat ) EP6O2 SL/EPI92) 3

8 subtracting the percentage of each group planning to vote for the Democratic signifying a Democratic gain The Dukakis 50 to 36 advantage this May yields a 14 score. The third column indicates the total change within each group, with a negative number 1984 figures of Reagan s 55 to 32 percent lead over Mondale yields a figure of for the Republican candidates. Undecided voters are omitted. Thus the August candidate Mondale in 84, Dukakis in 88) from the percentage planning to vote The vote intention entries in August, 1984 and May, 1988 are made by among various groups in the electorate at comparable times in 1984 and The table below shows changes in the voting intentions and candidate evaluations Democrat Independent Republican Moderate Conservative blue collar white male female over $30, white nonwhite I Sex Race Liberal Mg collar Education H.S. graduate $15$30,000 under $15,000 Income more than H.S. less than H.S. Ideology Occupation TOTAL & l ff ff ff. Vote Intention ) Cand. Eval. Rep. Cand. Eval, Oem. the Democratic/Republican candidates in 1988 than in more favorable evaluation; negative numbers indicate a less favorable image for column represents the change between 1984 and 198&. Positive numbers ±ndicate a favorable comments about a candidate by the specific group. The difference percentage of favorable ones. Negative numbers indicate more unfavorable than columns show the percentage of unfavorable impressions subtracted from the The candidate evaluation entries are similar. The August, 1984 and May, 1988 EP692 SL/EP192) 4