Richmond voters rank schools top issue for next mayor; poll shows dissatisfaction on city finances, transparency

Transcription

1 September 1, 2016 Richmond voters rank schools top issue for next mayor; poll shows dissatisfaction on city finances, transparency Summary of Key Findings 1. Asked to name their top concern, 35% of voters say education is the top issue the next mayor should focus on, followed by city finance and budget issues at 19%. 2. Voters are pessimistic about whether city government listens to them and is working to improve their neighborhood, but views differ along racial lines. 3. Voters say honesty and transparency in decision-making are the leadership qualities they want their next mayor to bring to City Hall. 4. Black voters are much more concerned than white voters about reducing crime and improving public transportation. 5. Voters support financial incentives to attract new businesses and events; prefer to renovate The Diamond, or build a new stadium in the Boulevard area. For further information, contact: Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director qkidd@cnu.edu Office (757) Wason Center for Public Policy Mobile (757) Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, Assistant Director rachel.bitecofer@cnu.edu Office (757) Wason Center for Public Policy Mobile (541)

2 Analysis Richmond voters want their next mayor to focus on education and the quality of city schools above all other issues. In an open-ended question about the current mayoral election, by far the most voters volunteered education and schools as their most important issue, with city budget and finance issues next. Just over one-third (35%) of Richmonders named an education or school-related issue, while 19% named an issue regarding city finances, spending or budgets. Other responses included crime/police/violence (9%), roads/infrastructure/transportation (7%), economy/jobs/economic development (6%), and city services/human services (5%). A small but measurable number of voters offered comments related to wanting better government generally, with a wide range of other issues scattered in the remaining responses. These are the results of a survey of 600 registered Richmond city voters conducted August by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. The survey has an overall adjusted margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Q10: Thinking about all of the issues the next mayor of Richmond might have to deal with, what is the one issue you think is the most important issue [OPEN ENDED QUESTION] Education/schools 35 City finances/spending/budgets 19 Crime/police/violence 9 Roads/infrastructure/transportation 7 Economy/jobs/economic development 6 City services/human services 5 General better government comments 3 Other or no comment 16 When voters were asked to evaluate a list of specific issues facing the next mayor, working to improve the quality of Richmond schools was by far ranked the most important. Fully 81% said it is very important, followed by improving the working of city government (68%), improving the working relationship between the mayor, City Council and School Board (67%), and reducing crime (65%). Overall, voters are least concerned about improving regional cooperation with the counties (33%) or improving public transportation regionally out to the counties and nearby cities (37%). How some issues rated differed according to the race of voters surveyed. Black voters are more interested in seeing improvements in the Richmond schools (87% say it is a very important issue) than white voters (73% say it is a very important issue). Black voters are also far more interested in seeing the next mayor focus on reducing crime in the city (79% say it is a very important issue) than white voters (50% say it is a very important issue). Black voters are also far more interested in seeing the next mayor work on improving public transportation regionally (52% say it is a very important issue) than white voters (23% say it is a very important issue). 2

3 Richmond voters are clear on their priorities for their next mayor: education and a better working city government, said Dr. Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center. The candidates who can convince voters that they will make the schools better and make City Hall work should be able to gain ground in this crowded election. Q11 a-g: I m going to read some issues that people have said the next mayor will have to deal with. For each one tell me if you think it is very important, important, neither important or unimportant, unimportant, or very unimportant. [LISTED IN ORDER FROM HIGHEST TO LOWEST AMONG ALL VOTERS] % very important Working with the School Board to improve quality of Richmond schools Making Richmond city government work better Improving the working relationship between the Mayor, City Council, and the School Board Reducing crime in the city Bringing more businesses and job opportunities to Richmond Improving public transportation, including regionally out to the counties and nearby cities Improving regional cooperation with the counties Voter concern about these issues sits in the context of what appears to be a deep lack of trust and confidence in Richmond city government, and a strong desire for the next mayor to demonstrate honesty and transparency in how decisions are made. Only 40% of Richmond voters say they agree that Richmond city government is working to improve the entire city or their own neighborhoods, while half (49%) disagree. Only 41% of Richmond voters overall agree that their voice matters to Richmond city leaders, and black voters are nearly twice as likely to think their voice matters (51%) than white voters (29%). While voters are largely sour on City Hall and Richmond s elected leaders, they are more positive than negative about the Richmond police, with over half (57%) agreeing that the Richmond police department treats all citizens fairly. However, there is a clear racial division on views toward the police, with 68% of white voters saying the police treat everyone fairly and 43% of black voters saying the police treat everyone fairly, a 25-point difference. I m going to read a few statements, and for each one please tell me if you strongly agree, agree, neither agree or disagree, disagree, or disagree strongly. Q12: Richmond city government All is working to improve Black the entire city White

4 Q13: Richmond city government All is working to improve my Black neighborhood White Q14: My voice matters to All Richmond city leaders Black White Q15: The Richmond police All department treats all Black citizens fairly White This gap in trust and confidence in Richmond city government and its leadership is reflected in what kind of leadership qualities voters say they want to see the next mayor bring to City Hall. Just over a third of voters (34%) say the number one quality they want is honesty and transparency in decision-making. This is the top choice of both black and white voters, followed by a desire to see a mayor who is innovative and creative in problem-solving (21%), someone who is a consensus-builder (20%), and someone who is a strong leader who will take action even if everyone isn t on board (14%). Richmond voters are not concerned that the next mayor be someone with previous city government experience, ranking that as the least important leadership quality (7%). Q16: I m going to describe some leadership qualities that the next mayor might bring to City Hall. Please tell me which quality is the most important quality that you would like to see in the next mayor. [LISTED IN ORDER FROM HIGHEST TO LOWEST AMONG ALL VOTERS] Someone who is honest and transparent in how decisions are made Someone who is innovative and creative in solving Richmond s problems Someone who is a consensus-builder and brings everyone to the table Someone who is a strong leader who takes action even if everyone isn t on board Someone who has had previous city government experience Dk/ref (vol) As the issue most important to Richmond voters in the mayoral election, schools and education represent a major challenge. The vast majority of voters (73%) say city schools are underfunded. However, black voters are far more likely than white voters to feel this way, 87% to 58%. Nearly a third (30%) of white voters say Richmond 4

5 schools are adequately funded, while only 8% of black voters say Richmond schools are adequately funded. How to pay for school repairs and renovations divides Richmond voters, with just under half (46%) saying the city should borrow the money while just over a third (35%) say that taxes should be raised to pay for repairs and renovations. Black and white voters show no differences on those questions. Q17: When it comes to improving the quality of Richmond schools, some people say that the school system is adequately funded and needs to be more accountable for how it spends its budget, while others say the school system is underfunded and resources are stretched too thin. What is your view, is the school system adequately funded or underfunded? Adequately funded Both (vol) Underfunded Dk/ref (vol) Q18: Many of the schools in Richmond are old and need repairs and renovations, which will cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Some people have suggested borrowing the money to pay for these repairs and renovations, while others have suggested a tax increase to pay for them. Which would you prefer, borrowing or raising taxes? Borrow Neither (vol) Raise taxes Dk/ref (vol) Nearly half (48%) of Richmond voters say the current mayor and city council have done a poor or very poor job handling city finances, while only 17% say they have done a fair or very good job. A third (34%) say the mayor and council have done an average job. White voters are more critical of the current mayor and council, with 64% saying they have done a poor or very poor job of financial management. At the same time, half of voters (49%) support paying financial incentives to attract business and events to the city. Q19: How would you rate the overall financial management of the city of Richmond by the current mayor and council, would you say they have done a Net fair or very good An average job Net poor or very poor Dk/ref (vol) 1-2 5

6 Q20: Richmond offered financial incentives to attract Stone Brewery, the Washington Redskins training camp, what is your view, do you Net support or strongly support Neither support or oppose Net oppose or strongly oppose Dk/ref (vol) The future of the city s minor league baseball stadium has been an impassioned discussion in Richmond for a decade. Richmonders feel strongly (78%) that the current stadium, The Diamond, should be renovated rather than a new stadium built (15%). If a new stadium is built, voters by strong margins want it to remain in the Boulevard area (74%) rather than in another part of the city (17%). Q21: One issue the next mayor might have to deal with is what to do about the Diamond, the minor league baseball stadium. Some people think the current stadium should be renovated what is your view, do you Renovate The Diamond Build a new stadium Not sure either way Dk/ref (vol) Q22: If a new stadium is built at a different location, would you like to see it remain in the Boulevard area of the city or would you like to see it built in another part of the city? Remain in Boulevard area Build in other part of city Not sure either way Dk/ref (vol)

7 Demographic Toplines EDUC: High school or less 18 Some college 24 Vocational or technical training 2 College graduate 32 Graduate study or more 24 HISPANIC: Yes 2 No 98 RACE: White 44 Black or African American 49 Other 7 RELIG: Protestant 29 Christian (non-specific) (vol) 16 Catholic 10 Jewish 1 Other 25 None 17 Dk/ref (vol) 2 PARTYID: Republican 11 Democrat 56 Independent 29 No preference (vol) 1 Dk/ref (vol) 3 AGE: & older 41 INCOME: Under $25, $25-$49, $50-$74, $75-$99, $100,000-$149, Over $150, Dk/ref (vol) 13 SEX: [INTERVIEWER CODE] Male 45 Female 55 DISTRICT DISTRIBUTION: How the survey was conducted: The results of this poll are based on 600 live interviews of registered Richmond voters, including 415 on landline and 185 on cell phone, conducted August 18-24, Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding. The margin of error for the whole survey is +/- 4.9% at the 95% level of confidence. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey s design effect, which is 1.5 in this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey s deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Sub samples have a higher margin of error. In addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non-response, question wording, and interviewer error. The response rate (AAPOR RRI Standard Definition) for the survey was 23%. Five callbacks were employed in the fielding process. The data reported here are weighted using an iterative weighting process on sex, age, race and voting district to reflect as closely as possible the demographic composition of registered voters in Richmond. The survey was designed by Dr. Quentin Kidd of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. 7