Arab American Voters in 2010: Their Identity and Political Concerns

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Harold Mosley
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1 ZOGBY INTERNATIONAL Arab American Voters in 2010: Their Identity and Political Concerns September, Zogby International 1

2 Methodology Sample Size Dates MOE (%) Arab Americans 404 9/27/10 9/29/10 +/- 5.0% The Arab American Institute commissioned Zogby International to conduct a telephone poll of 404 Arab Americans nationwide. Samples were randomly drawn over national cds using Zogby International's list of Arab surnames. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR s approved methodologies 1 and are comparable to other professional publicopinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies. 2 Weighting by country of origin, religion, born in US, age, party, gender is used to adjust for non-response. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups. 1 See COOP4 (p.38) in Standard Definitions: Final Dispositions of Case Codes and Outcome Rates of Surveys. The American Association for Public Opinion Research, (2000). 2 Cooperation Tracking Study: April 2003 Update, Jane M. Sheppard and Shelly Haas. The Council for Marketing & Opinion Research (CMOR). Cincinnati, Ohio (2003). 2

3 Executive Summary I.) Identity, Pride, and Discrimination. There was an increase in the number of respondents who identify as "Arab American". The 62% who so identify in 2010 shows a continuation of an upward trend that began in the mid- 1990's when only 51% described themselves as Arab Americans. This number has edged upward ever since. Over 90% say that they are "proud of their ethnicity", this despite the fact that more than two in five report having "experienced discrimination because of their ethnic background". It is important to note that among Arab Americans who are Muslim, the percentage who report having been discriminated against because of their ethnicity is a much higher 62%, while among Arab Americans who are Christian the percentage is a somewhat lower, but still high 35%. Finally, continuing a trend that began in 2002, significantly more Arab Americans identify as Democrats (50%) than those who identify as Republican (25%) Democratic Republican Independent

4 II.) The 2010 Political Landscape. Arab Americans are somewhat more optimistic about the direction of the country, than voters at large; with 36% saying the country is on the "right track" as opposed to 48% who say it is on the "wrong track" (some polls show that among the electorate at large less than 20% say the U.S. is on the "right track"). But like the rest of American voters, Arab Americans give Congress a very low 18% approval rating. They also give both parties in Congress poor performance ratings, with Democrats scoring a low 24% approval and the GOP an even lower 13%. What are the key issues on the minds of Arab American voters? By far and away, it's "jobs and the economy" for 70%, followed by "the war in Iraq, Middle East peace and other foreign policy concerns" at 30%, and health care which scores high for 24% of Arab American voters (these issues and the scores they receive are nearly identical to the rankings and ratings they received in our 2008 poll). On virtually every one of these issues respondents said Democrats would do a better job than Republicans, often by margins of more than two to one. III.) President Obama's Job Performance. Arab Americans, who strongly backed Barack Obama, with 67% supporting his bid for the presidency in 2008, still have a favorable, though somewhat diminished view of this President's job performance. His approval rating in the community is 51% favorable against a 48% unfavorable rating. On most issues (Obama's "outreach to the Arab and Muslim Worlds" (42%), "ending torture" (39%), "handling the war in Iraq" (40%), health care (40%), and "protecting civil liberties" (45%) a plurality of Arab American voters say they are satisfied with the job he has done. A plurality is dissatisfied with the President's performance on only one issue, and that is his "handling the economy" (45% dissatisfied). On his "handling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict" those who are satisfied and those who are dissatisfied are near evenly split (24%//29%), with a plurality (44%) saying "it's too early to tell" how well the President has performed. 4

5 Opinions on Identity, Nationality and Community 1. How are you most likely to describe yourself? By country of origin As Arab American By both Neither Not Sure <1 <1 <1 < <1 1 Catholic Protestant Muslim By country of origin As Arab American By both Neither Not Sure < <1 -- <1 5

6 2. On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being 'not at all proud' and 5 being 'extremely proud,' how proud are you of your ethnic heritage? Born in the U.S. Not Born in the U.S. (1) Not at all proud 1 < (2) <1 < (3) (4) (5) Extremely Proud Not Sure <1 -- <1 <1 <1 -- <1 <1 Catholic Protestant Muslim (1) Not at all proud (2) < <1 (3) (4) (5) Extremely Proud Not Sure <1 -- <1 <1 -- <1 3. Party Male Female Catholic Protestant Muslim Democratic Republican Independent Other Not Sure

7 4. How likely are you to vote in the elections this November? Very Likely Somewhat likely Not Likely < Not Sure < <1 < <1 Catholic Protestant Muslim Very Likely Somewhat likely Not Likely Not Sure <1 <1 < < election Obama McCain Someone else Not Sure Catholic Protestant Muslim Obama McCain Someone else Not Sure

8 6. How secure do you feel in your current job? Very Fairly Not Very Not at all Not Sure Catholic Protestant Muslim Very Fairly Not Very Not at all Not Sure

9 7. How confident are you that your children will have a better life than you? Very Fairly Not Very Not at all No children Not Sure Catholic Protestant Muslim Very Fairly Not Very Not at all No children Not Sure

10 8. Have you personally experienced discrimination in the past because of your ethnicity or country of origin? Yes No Not Sure <1 -- <1 -- < <1 Catholic Protestant Muslim Yes No Not Sure <1 < <1 9. How concerned are you about facing discrimination in the future because of your ethnicity or country of origin? Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not very concerned Not at all concerned Not Sure 1 1 <1 1 <1 -- <1 1 Catholic Protestant Muslim Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not very concerned Not at all concerned Not Sure 1 <1 <! 2 1 <1 10

11 Opinions on the 2010 Election 10. U.S. direction Right direction Wrong track Not Sure Catholic Protestant Muslim Right direction Wrong track Not Sure

12 11. How would you rate the overall job performance of each of the following - Congress Excellent 1 < <1 1 1 Good Fair Poor Not Sure Catholic Protestant Muslim Excellent 1 < Good Fair Poor Not Sure

13 12. How would you rate the overall job performance of each of the following - Democrats in Congress Excellent Good Fair Poor Not Sure Catholic Protestant Muslim Excellent Good Fair Poor Not Sure

14 13. How would you rate the overall job performance of each of the following - Republicans in Congress Excellent 1 < <1 1 Good Fair Poor Not Sure Catholic Protestant Muslim Excellent < Good Fair Poor Not Sure

15 14. Which party would you rather have controlling Congress- Democrats or Republicans? Democrats Republicans Neither Not Sure/Refuse Catholic Protestant Muslim Democrats Republicans Neither Not Sure/Refuse

16 15. In your own words, what are the two top issues facing the country today? DEM GOP IND Jobs and the economy War in Iraq/Peace/Foreign policy Health care/insurance/ Prescription drugs Education/Schools Budget/Spending/Deficit Terrorism/Security Immigration Politics/Government/Corruption/Campaign finance reform Taxes Welfare/Child care/homeless/housing/poverty Environment Morality/Values Crime/Drugs/Violence Social Security/Elderly <1 Palestine Lebanon Utility rates/gas prices Other NS/None 1 1 <

17 16. For each, please tell me who you think will do a better job - Republicans or Democrats - The economy Democrats Republicans Neither Not Sure/Refuse Catholic Protestant Muslim Democrats Republicans Neither Not Sure/Refuse For each, please tell me who you think will do a better job - Republicans or Democrats - The war on terrorism/national security Democrats Republicans Neither Not Sure/Refuse Catholic Protestant Muslim Democrats Republicans Neither Not Sure/Refuse

18 18. For each, please tell me who you think will do a better job - Republicans or Democrats - Healthcare Democrats Republicans Neither Not Sure/Refuse Catholic Protestant Muslim Democrats Republicans Neither Not Sure/Refuse For each, please tell me who you think will do a better job - Republicans or Democrats - Israeli-Palestinian dispute Democrats Republicans Neither Not Sure/Refuse Catholic Protestant Muslim Democrats Republicans Neither Not Sure/Refuse

19 20. For each, please tell me who you think will do a better job - Republicans or Democrats - Civil Liberties Democrats Republicans Neither Not Sure/Refuse Catholic Protestant Muslim Democrats Republicans Neither Not Sure/Refuse For each, please tell me who you think will do a better job - Republicans or Democrats - Taxes Democrats Republicans Neither Not Sure/Refuse Catholic Protestant Muslim Democrats Republicans Neither Not Sure/Refuse

20 23. For each, please tell me who you think will do a better job - Republicans or Democrats - Promoting outreach to Arabs and Muslims Democrats Republicans Neither Not Sure/Refuse Catholic Protestant Muslim Democrats Republicans Neither Not Sure/Refuse

21 Opinions on President Obama 24., how would you rate President Obama's job performance? Excellent Good Fair Poor Not Sure <1 2 Catholic Protestant Muslim Excellent Good Fair Poor Not Sure

22 have you been satisfied or dissatisfied with the efforts made by the Obama Administration in the following areas or is it too early to tell. 25. Outreach to the Arab and Muslim Worlds Satisfied Dissatisfied Too early to tell Not Sure Catholic Protestant Muslim Satisfied Dissatisfied Too early to tell Not Sure

23 26. Handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict Satisfied Dissatisfied Too early to tell Not Sure Catholic Protestant Muslim Satisfied Dissatisfied Too early to tell Not Sure Ending the use of torture Satisfied Dissatisfied Too early to tell Not Sure Catholic Protestant Muslim Satisfied Dissatisfied Too early to tell Not Sure

24 28. Handling of Iraq Satisfied Dissatisfied Too early to tell Not Sure Catholic Protestant Muslim Satisfied Dissatisfied Too early to tell Not Sure < Handling of the economy Satisfied Dissatisfied Too early to tell Not Sure Catholic Protestant Muslim Satisfied Dissatisfied Too early to tell Not Sure

25 30. Handling of healthcare Satisfied Dissatisfied Too early to tell Not Sure Catholic Protestant Muslim Satisfied Dissatisfied Too early to tell Not Sure Civil Liberties Satisfied Dissatisfied Too early to tell Not Sure Catholic Protestant Muslim Satisfied Dissatisfied Too early to tell Not Sure

26 32. Policy toward Lebanon Satisfied Dissatisfied Too early to tell Not Sure Catholic Protestant Muslim Satisfied Dissatisfied Too early to tell Not Sure

The 2008 Election: How Arab Americans Will Vote and Why

The 2008 Election: How Arab Americans Will Vote and Why A poll conducted by: Zogby International On behalf of: The Arab American Institute September, 2008 2008 Arab American Institute Methodology Zogby