JAVNO MNJENJE CRNE GORE

Transcription

1 JAVNO MNJENJE CRNE GORE

2 CEDEM Centar za demokratiju i ljudska prava Center for Democracy and Human Rights Bulevar Džordža Vašingtona br. 51, III/ Podgorica, Crna Gora Tel /fax ; cedem.web@cg.yu 2

3 CEDEM Empirical Research Department PUBLIC OPINION OF MONTENEGRO Annual Report No. 3 - February June October February 2008 Podgorica, March

4 Center for Democracy and Human Rights Centar za demokratiju i ljudska prava FOUNDATION OPEN SOCIETY INSTITUTE REPRESENTATIVE OFFICE MONTENEGRO 4

5 CONTENTS 1. Introduction 6 2. February, June, October, February,

6 INTRODUCTION Hereby we present the results of public opinion research conducted quarterly by CEDEM in a preceding period. The aim of this CEDEM research is to enable, both domestic and foreign, as well as political and expert public, to have empirical insight into the state of political public opinion in Montenegro by monitoring the same indicators. Therefore, it is a longitudinal research survey which can timely identify all the key shifts on the political scene, also including more important strategic questions of a political identity of Montenegrin society. In this annual report we present data of four research surveys covering the period from February 2007 to February The analysis of the research results shows that there were no significant shifts on the political scene in the previous period. The question of EU integrations is still one of the crucial foreign-relations priorities which all the citizens of Montenegro insist on. There is almost a consensus among all the citizens of Montenegro about the question of EU integrations, which was not endangered even by the recent events in the surrounding countries, above all proclamation of Kosovo independence. On the other hand, there is not enough support of the citizens for NATO integrations, more precisely, in respect to the support of Atlantic integrations we note a negative trend. The support of cooperation with the Hague is firmly high, and this corresponds to the fact that there is no special pressure on the Government of Montenegro from the Hague Tribunal. In relation to the surrounding countries, citizens of Montenegro already have a stable opinion that Montenegro should rely on EU and Serbia, whereas, the USA and Russia are seen as less significant partners. When we discuss the question of the state of human rights, it seems that the situation is better than it could have been expected, although the citizens point to certain problems in this area. In view of the fact that a question of corruption is particularly emphasized in the Reports of authorized EU institutions, a special INDEX of corruption was formed in order to measure the attitude of the citizens towards the presence of this problem in Montenegrin society. As it can be seen from the report, the citizens are very critical of this occurrence. In the same manner, the citizens are very critical of work and the results of the Government of Montenegro. Disregarding small variations, it can be said that the citizens are generally dissatisfied with the work of the Government. When we talk about the confidence the citizens have in media, the situation is stable, three key printed media, where a dominant one is Vijesti, and two key TV media, with already traditionally established advantage of TV IN. Taking into consideration that the citizens are fairly critical towards the governmental institutions, and also because of the fact that they are very dissatisfied with the economic situation, it is not completely clear how the ruling DPS gets such big and stable support. This finding directs to the fact that the support of political parties is not in a direct correlation with the relations towards the institutions and economic situation in Montenegro. Therefore, all these are the indicators which can be found in the Report, and each of them can be monitored quarterly. Anyway, Montenegrin society is still a politically 6

7 divided society in which old-new divisions create to a great extent a Manihean atmosphere, where it has to be clear who is on which side and who belongs to whom. This problem is an essentially important problem for the identity of the Montenegrin society, and in the following period important tasks remain to be realized in order to establish civil order which will overcome the existing divisions and promote entire democratic development of Montenegrin society. 7

8 February

9 On the following pages we will present the results of a regular CEDEM public opinion research, conducted in the period from 9th to 18th February, 2007.The research was carried out on the sample of 1000 adult examinees from the following nine Montenegrin municipalities: Berane, Bijelo Polje, Pljevlja, Podgorica, Nikšić, Cetinje, Herceg Novi, Bar i Ulcinj. CEDEM standard double stratified sample with random choice of examinees in the final units was applied. In each census circle there were between 5 and 7 examinees. In the final outcome, the sample is representative for the entire adult population of Montenegro. Sample representativity was corrected by a post-startificational procedure of pondering, where the last census data were used as a priniple of correction, and the criteria were gender, nationality and age of the examinees. Limits of a sample correction by a pondering procedure are 8%. As it can be seen from all key variables, which on the basis of the analyses carried out so far, define public opinion in the tables (1-5), the sample completely corresponds to the results of the census. In respect to education, less educated populations are typically relatively deprived categories in a sample. In total, a standard sampling error in relation to a demographic structure ranges from 1-1.5%. Table 1: Gender structure of examinees Gender % Male 50.8 Female 49.2 TOTAL Table 2: Age structure of examinees Categories % from 18 to 34 years 37.5 old from 35 to 54 years 40.4 old over 55 years old 21.6 No reply 0.5 TOTAL

10 Table 3: Nationality structure of examinees Nationality % Montenegrins 46.2 Serbs 34.2 Bosnians 3.5 Albanians 4.8 Moslems 8.9 Croatians 1.2 Other 1.3 TOTAL Table 4: Confessional structure of examinees Religion of examinees % Orthodox 74.4 Islam 18.5 Catholic 3.2 Atheist (no religion) 3.9 TOTAL CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS The aim of the first set of questions in this research was to establish rating of institutions. As well as in the previous cases, rating was measured by a five-level assessment scale, and the results of measuring are presented as mean values. The results show that Serbian Orthodox Church has the greatest confidence (3,29). Namely, Serbian Orthodox Church is primarily perceived as a religious institution, so that political events do not influence its rating. From a viewpoint of a rank of confidence in institutions, Parliament of Montenegro is assessed significantly higher than in the previous period and thus at this moment is on the second position in the total rank (2,96), and it is the first in a category of political institutions. At the same time, it is the only institution which has a positive trend. Increase of confidence in the Montenegrin Parliament points to a fact that after the elections, the political situation in the Parliament differs from the one which characterized the work of this body in the previous years, and 10

11 that diversity in the Parliament and dynamics of political processes inside itself is positively assessed. From a viewpoint of a trend, except when we talk about the Parliament, all other institutions decline, so that President of Montenegro is on the third position (2,69), then the government (2,56) and police (2,47) follow, whereas Montenegrin Orthodox Church (2,35), judiciary (2,26) and in the end political parties (2,16) have the worst estimations. From the already mentioned values, we can claim that there is an increase of confidence crisis in the institutions of the system, and comparatively, judiciary of Montenegro marks the biggest fall. Therefore, there is no doubt that public opinion had a negative reaction to particular situational variables and political communication following certain events most directly connected to this branch of authority in Montenegro. Table 5: Confidence in institutions on a total variance of examinees RANK / INSTITUTION N C SD Serbian Orthodox Church 806 3,29 1,667 Parliament of Montenegro 979 2,96 2,124 President of Montenegro 919 2,69 1,439 Government of Montenegro 923 2,56 1,384 Police of Montenegro 927 2,47 1,335 Montenegrin Orthodox Church 733 2,35 1,518 Judiciary of Montenegro 898 2,26 1,245 Political parties of Montenegro 894 2,16 1,126 N- number of examinees who stated their opinion; C-confidence coefficient; SD-standard deviation If the results of measurement are analysed from the standpoint of supporters of the ruling political parties, it can be noticed that the best rated is President of Montenegro (3,98) as well as they have a very high level of confidence in the government (3,79). On the other hand, supporters of the opposing parties give far the highest estimations to Serbian Orthodox Church (3,86). Finally, the citizens who have no clear preferences for political parties and who abstain from elections, also have the biggest confidence in Serbian Orthodox Church (3,13). 11

12 Table 6: Supporters of the ruling parties RANK / INSTITUTION N C SD President of Montenegro 277 3,98 1,099 Government of Montenegro 279 3,79 1,181 Parliament of Montenegro 284 3,67 1,540 Montenegrin Orthodox Church 206 3,44 1,440 Police of Montenegro 277 3,41 1,268 Judiciary of Montenegro 261 3,06 1,323 Political parties in Montenegro 259 2,88 1,189 Serbian Orthodox Church 202 2,53 1,552 N- number of examinees who stated their opinion;c-confidence coefficient; SD-standard deviation Table 7: Supporters of the opposing parties RANK / INSTITUTION N C SD Serbian Orthodox Church 343 3,86 1,486 Parliament of Montenegro 375 2,49 2,110 Police of Montenegro 361 2,02 1,109 President of Montenegro 357 2,01 1,128 Government of Montenegro 356 1,92 1,041 Judiciary of Montenegro 346 1,92 1,022 Political parties in Montenegro 352 1,90,934 Montenegrin Orthodox Church 308 1,80 1,276 N- number of examinees who stated their opinion; C-confidence coefficient; SD-standard deviation 12

13 Table 8: Undecided and abstainers RANK / INSTITUTION N C SD Serbian Orthodox Church 261 3,13 1,716 Parliament of Montenegro 320 2,88 2,407 President of Montenegro 285 2,31 1,256 Police of Montenegro 289 2,15 1,204 Government of Montenegro 287 2,14 1,143 Montenegrin Orthodox Church 219 2,08 1,365 Judiciary of Montenegro 291 1,94 1,077 Political parties in Montenegro 283 1,81 0,974 N- number of examinees who stated their opinion; C-confidence coefficient; SD-standard deviation 2. ACTIVITY OF POLITICAL PARTIES IN THE PARLIAMENT In evaluation of the activity of political parties in the Parliament, citizens gave the highest values to Movement for Changes (2,68), and only after it the ruling DPS follows (2,58). It s obvious that the citizens notice and highly evaluate the activity of the Movement in the Parliament and in the long run, it represents a solid basis for the promotion of this party. As it could have been expected, when we talk about the assessment of the activity of political parties in the Parliament from the standpoint of the ruling parties supporters (table 10), the ruling DPS won the highest values (4,26), then SDP (3,65), whereas Movement for Changes is on the third position (2,45). As far as supporters of the opposing parties are concerned (table 11), they gave the highest value to Movement for changes (3,09), whereas Serbian People s Party comes right after it (2,93) and then Serbian Radical Party follows (2,61). In the end, the assessment of the activity of political parties in the Parliament was also done by undecided citizens and abstainers (table 12), where Movement for Changes was given the highest value (2,36) and DPS was next (1,96). 13

14 Table 9: Activity of political parties in the Parliament on the total variance of examinees RANK N C SD PZP / Movement for Changes DPS / Democratic Party of Socialists SDP / Socialdemocratic Party SNS / Serbin People s Party Serbian Radical Party NS / People s Party SNP / Socialist People s Party LPCG / Liberal Party of Montenegro DSS / Democratic Serbian Party NSS / People s Socialist Party DSJ / Democratic Party of Unity Bosnians Party DUA / Democratic Union of Albanians DSCG/ Democratic Union in Montenegro HGI/ Croatian Civil Initiative Albanian Alternative Table 10: Supporters of the ruling parties RANK N C SD DPS / Democratic Party of Socialists 281 4,26 1,064 SDP / Socialdemocratic Party 271 3,65 1,264 PZP / Movement for Changes 265 2,45 1,233 LPCG / Liberal Party of Montenegro 253 2,37 1,187 DUA / Democratic Union of Albanians 238 1,84 1,134 Bosnians Party 248 1,78 1,070 HGI/ Croation Civil Initiative 232 1,76 1,047 DSCG/ Democratic Union in Montenegro 230 1,75 0,975 Albanian Alternative 233 1,65 0,982 SNP / Socialist People s Party 259 1,46 0,807 SNS / Serbian People s Party 254 1,39 0,801 NS / People s Party 259 1,39 0,746 DSJ / Democratic Party of Unity 244 1,33 0,664 NSS / People s Socialist Party 251 1,31 0,671 DSS / Democratic Serbian Party 253 1,29 0,655 Serbian Radical Party 248 1,26 0,704 N- number of examinees who stated their opinion; C-confidence coefficient; SD-standard deviation 14

15 Table 11: Supporters of the opposing parties RANK N C SD PZP / Movement for Changes 349 3,09 1,399 SNS /Serbian People s Party 355 2,93 1,524 Serbian Radical Party 342 2,61 1,616 NS / People s Party 347 2,44 1,318 SNP /Socialist People s Party 347 2,42 1,383 DSS / Democratic Serbian Party 344 2,31 1,303 NSS / People s Socialist Party 326 2,06 1,221 DSJ / Democratic Party of Unity 324 1,94 1,169 LPCG / Liberal Party of Montenegro 338 1,73 1,184 DPS / Democratic Party of Socialists 351 1,70 1,056 SDP / Socialdemocratic Party 347 1,61 1,053 Bosnians Party 327 1,50 0,979 DSCG/Democratic Union inmontenegro 324 1,40 0,846 DUA / Democratic Union of Albanians 330 1,39 0,894 HGI / Croatian Civil Initiative 323 1,39 0,872 Albanian Alternative 330 1,34 0,862 Table 12: Undecided and abstainers RANK N C SD PZP / Movement for Changes 255 2,36 1,281 DPS / Democratic Party of Socialists 262 1,96 1,169 SNS /Serbian People s Party 246 1,94 1,272 SDP / Socialdemocratic Party 257 1,81 1,074 NS / People s Party 249 1,77 1,096 Serbian Radical Party 239 1,74 1,202 SNP /Socialist People s Party 246 1,72 1,060 DSS / Democratic Serbian Party 245 1,71 1,056 LPCG / Liberal Party of Montenegro 240 1,63 0,949 NSS / People s Socialist Party 239 1,55 0,882 DSJ / Democratic Party of Unity 229 1,47 0,837 DSCG/Democratic Union inmontenegro 226 1,43 0,904 DUA / Democratic Union of Albanians 226 1,37 0,880 Bosnians Party 230 1,36 0,788 Albanian Alternative 220 1,27 0,742 HGI / Croatian Civil Initiative 220 1,26 0,665 N- number of examinees who stated their opinion; K-confidence coefficient SD-standard deviation 15

16 3. SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF MONTENEGRO ACTIVITY Measuring of satisfaction with the Government usually represents the subject of our research. The data we obtained from public opinion research show that citizens generally are not satisfied with its activity. Except for the fact that the overall discontent is bigger than the overall satisfaction and a trend is negative, discontent with the activity of the Government increases continually, disregarding change of the Prime Minister. Cumulatively, over 35% of examinees express their opinion that to a smaller or a bigger extent they are not satisfied with the activity of the Montenegrin government, in comparison to slightly more than 20% of examinees who are more or less satisfied with its efficiency. Table 13: Are you satisfied with the efficiency of Zeljko Sturanovic cabinet so far? Modality of replies N % Very dissatisfied ,6 Mostly dissatisfied ,9 Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied ,2 Mostly satisfied ,1 Very satisfied 50 5,1 Table 14: Satisfaction with activity of the Government of Montenegro in the perception of different party grouping Election preference Supporters of the ruling parties Supporters of the opposing parties Undecided and abstainers Very dissatisfied Satisfaction with the Government efficiency Mostly Dissatisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Mostly satisfied Very Satisfied

17 Table 15: Satisfaction with the Government activity trends (June 2006, September 2006 and February 2007) Modality of replies June 06. September 06. February 07. Dissatisfied 43,60% 48,00% 35,50% Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied 22,00% 23,20% 44,20% Satisfied 34,40% 28,90% 20,20% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% dissatisfied neither satisfied nor dissatisfied satisfied 0,00% Jun 06. Septembar 06. Februar 07. By comparative analysis we can confirm the above mentioned statement that confidence in the Government constantly falls. What imposes as a reason for this trend is a fact that satisfaction caused by the referendum decreases, first of all, because there is no obvious progress, especially in the sphere of economy, that is, there is no increase of citizens standard of living (table 15). 4. REFORMATORY CAPACITIES OF THE MINISTRIES TOWARDS EU INTEGRATIONS Estimating reformatory capacities of the ministries towards EU integrations, it can be said that all the ministries are assessed negatively. Comparatively, the best value was won by Ministry of tourism and environment protection (2,35). Ministries which follow are Ministry of culture, sport and media and Ministry of foreign affairs with the identical mark (2,31), all the way down to Ministry of Justice, which is rated as the worst (1,98). 17

18 Table 16: Reformatory capacities of the ministries towards EU integrations - rank Ministry N C SD Ministry of tourism and environment protection 783 2,35 1,052 Ministry of culture, sport and media 759 2,31 1,027 Ministry of foreign affairs 757 2,31 1,066 Ministry of agriculture 773 2,25 1,030 Ministry of education and science 797 2,22 1,009 Ministry of economic development 771 2,19 1,044 Ministry of finance 777 2,17 0,995 Ministry of navigation and transportation 767 2,15 0,966 Ministry of human and minority rights protection 755 2,14 1,056 Ministry of internal affairs 788 2,13 0,973 Ministry of defence 755 2,11 0,998 Ministry of health and social security 772 2,04 1,016 Ministry of justice 783 1,98 0,919 N number of examinees who stated their opinion; C confidence coefficient; SD standard deviation 5. CONFIDENCE IN POLITICIANS Confidence in political figures is typically an integral part of our research. The latest survey shows that the most popular politician is the current Prime Minister Zeljko Sturanovic (2,29), whereas the Government whose mandatory he is, got a low mark. Obviously this assessment was based on some other qualities of the Prime Minister, and not on the activity of his government. The citizens gave the second highest value to Nebojsa Medojevic, a leader of Movement for Changes, whereas a leader of DPS and former Prime Minister, Milo Djukanovic is on the third position (2,86). 18

19 Table 17: Rating of politicians on the total variance of examinees A politician s rank AM SD 1 Željko ŠTURANOVIĆ Nebojša MEDOJEVIĆ Milo ĐUKANOVIĆ Filip VUJANOVIĆ Andrija MANDIĆ Ranko KRIVOKAPIĆ Srđan MILIĆ Miodrag ŽIVKOVIĆ Predrag POPOVIĆ Ranko KADIĆ Zoran ŽIŽIĆ Emilo LABUDOVIĆ Ferhat DINOŠA Mehmet BARDHI Rafet HUSOVIĆ Vasilj SINIŠTAJ AM average mark; SD standard deviation; Confidence in politicians can be also observed from the standpoint of supporters of different political options. Milo Djukanovic is a revered leader for the supporters of the ruling parties (4,53), Filip Vujanovic holds the second position (4,13), whereas Zeljko Sturanovic is the third (4,04). On the other hand, supporters of opposing parties gave the highest value to Nebojsa Medojevic (3,50), then Andrija Mandic (3,02) and Zeljko Sturanovic (2,49) follow. When we talk about undecided and abstainers, the best estimated politician in the scope of their perception is a leader of Movement for Changes Nebojsa Medojevic (2,63) whereas Zeljko Sturanovic (2,58) and Filip Vujanovic (2,37) are after him. 19

20 Table 18: Rank supporters of the ruling parties A politician s rank MV SD Milo ĐUKANOVIĆ 4,53 0,995 Filip VUJANOVIĆ 4,13 1,041 Željko ŠTURANOVIĆ 4,04 1,083 Ranko KRIVOKAPIĆ 3,74 1,303 Nebojša MEDOJEVIĆ 2,47 1,275 Miodrag ŽIVKOVIĆ 2,37 1,231 Ferhat DINOŠA 2,28 1,349 Rafet HUSOVIĆ 1,82 1,019 Mehmet BARDHI 1,76 0,997 Srđan MILIĆ 1,73 0,980 Andrija MANDIĆ 1,68 1,053 Vasilj SINIŠTAJ 1,63 0,896 Predrag POPOVIĆ 1,52 0,878 Ranko KADIĆ 1,44 0,794 Zoran ŽIŽIĆ 1,40 0,799 Emilo LABUDOVIĆ 1,34 0,778 Table 19: Rank supporters of opposing parties A politician s rank MV SD Nebojša MEDOJEVIĆ 3,50 1,383 Andrija MANDIĆ 3,02 1,517 Željko ŠTURANOVIĆ 2,49 1,340 Predrag POPOVIĆ 2,48 1,274 Ranko KADIĆ 2,46 1,326 Srđan MILIĆ 2,44 1,315 Zoran ŽIŽIĆ 2,39 1,388 Emilo LABUDOVIĆ 2,34 1,411 Filip VUJANOVIĆ 2,14 1,244 Milo ĐUKANOVIĆ 1,95 1,320 Miodrag ŽIVKOVIĆ 1,81 1,149 Ranko KRIVOKAPIĆ 1,55 1,038 Ferhat DINOŠA 1,53 1,023 Mehmet BARDHI 1,51 0,923 Rafet HUSOVIĆ 1,32 0,775 Vasilj SINIŠTAJ 1,29 0,716 MV- mean value; SD standard deviation 20

21 Table 20: Rank - undecided and abstainers A politician rank MV SD Nebojša MEDOJEVIĆ 2,63 1,423 Željko ŠTURANOVIĆ 2,58 1,337 Filip VUJANOVIĆ 2,37 1,295 Milo ĐUKANOVIĆ 2,35 1,465 Andrija MANDIĆ 2,05 1,233 Ranko KRIVOKAPIĆ 1,88 1,173 Miodrag ŽIVKOVIĆ 1,84 1,089 Srđan MILIĆ 1,77 1,057 Emilo LABUDOVIĆ 1,74 1,236 Ranko KADIĆ 1,72 1,090 Predrag POPOVIĆ 1,72 1,054 Zoran ŽIŽIĆ 1,65 1,040 Ferhat DINOŠA 1,58 1,078 Mehmet BARDHI 1,41 0,869 Rafet HUSOVIĆ 1,30 0,798 Vasilj SINIŠTAJ 1,18 0,547 MV mean value; SD standard deviation 6. A QUESTION OF CONSTITUTION When we discuss opinion of the citizens regarding a possible agreement on passing a new Constitution of Montenegro, it can be said that public opinion is optimistic. Namely, 2/3 of the citizens are convinced (in various degrees) that the parties will agree on a new Constitution. It is indicative that there are significant differences of opinion on this question when we talk about supporters of the ruling and opposing parties. Table 21: Will political parties in the Parliament agree on passing a new Constitution of Montenegro? Modalities of a reply N % Yes, I m sure they will ,0 I think they will ,0 I think they won t ,3 No, I m sure they won t ,7 21

22 Table 22: Standpoint of different political options supporters Election preference Yes, I m sure they will Attitude (%) I think they will I think they won t No, I m sure they won t Supporters of the ruling parties Supporters of opposing parties Undecided and abstainers ELECTION PREFERENCE Parliamentary elections came soon after a referendum. As it could have been expected they guaranteed victory on the elections to a political option which supported independence. Election preference practically represents a reflex of referendum happenings. Current situation regarding this question is very different from the situation we had immmediately after the referendum. As a reason for this trend imposes a fact that satisfaction caused by the referendum decreases in the light of a fact that there is no obvious progress in the sphere of an increase of citizens standard of living. Our research shows that if the elections were held now, the biggest number of votes would be won by DPS (24%), even though comparatively this number of votes is significantly smaller in comparison to the number of votes this party won (in coalition with SDP) on the elections. Movement for Changes has a positive trend and at this moment this party would win 15,8 % of votes of the overall electoral body. Serbian People s Party would win 7,5%, whereas the biggest decline is marked in the case of SNP (4,0). Therefore, it is obvious that a change of a leader, bad results on the elections and to a certain extent change of political orientation caused significant loss of support for this party in the electoral body. In the end, SDP would win 3,1% of the overall electoral body, whereas at this moment only Serbian Radical Party out of all remaining parties could count on being a part of the Parliament, since 2,8% of voters on the level of the entire population would vote for this party. All other parties are, at this moment, under 2% on the level of overall electoral body. 22

23 Table 23: If the elections were held next week, which party would you vote for? Parties N % DPS / Democratic Party of Socialists ,0 SDP / Socialdemocratic Party 30 3,1 PZP / Movement for Changes ,8 SNS / Serbian People s Party 74 7,5 SNP / Socialist People s Party 40 4,0 NS / People s Party 10 1,0 DSS / Democratic Serbian Party 3 0,3 LPCG / Liberal Party of Montenegro 19 1,9 DSJ / Democratic Party of Unity 1 0,1 Bosnians Party 17 1,8 DUA / Democratic Union of Albanians 16 1,6 Albanian Alternative 6 0,6 HGI /Croatian Civil Initiative 4 0,4 Serbian Radical Party 28 2,8 Some other 24 2,4 I wouldn t go to those elections ,6 No reply 32 3,2 23

24 8. CONFIDENCE IN MEDIA Confidence in relation to TV stations which broadcast their programme on a territory of Montenegro is typically an integral part of our research. When we talk about television, our February survey data (table 22) show some interesting results. First of all, Public Service TVCG records a slight decline (from 28,5 to 26,3), whereas TV IN records an increase from 23,8% to 27% of citizens who have the biggest confidence in this TV station. A slight increase is also recorded in a case of TV PINK (from 13,6 to 16,2), whereas the biggest decline is registered in a case of TV ELMAG (from 16,0 to 10,8). Table 24: Name a TV station you have the biggest confidence in (trend) TV Jan. 05. % May 05. % Sept. 05. % Decem. 05. % June 06. % Sept. 06. % Feb 07. % TV CG TV ELMAG TV MONTENA TV MBC TV PINK TV IN ATLAS TV RTS Other TVs In a case of Podgorica (table 25) a trend shows that TV IN is on the first position (32,2), whereas in the second position is Public Service TVCG (24,5). 24

25 Table 25: Confidence in TV stations on the level of Podgorica (trend) TV Jan. 05. May 05. Sept. 05. Decem. 05. June 06. Sept. 06. Feb. 07. TV CG TV ELMAG TV MONTENA TV MBC TV PINK TV IN ATLAS TV RTS Other TVs Measuring of confidence in radio stations (table 26) shows that Radio of Montenegro is a radio station with the biggest confidence of the citizens of Montenegro, although in this respect Public service records a decline (from 28,8 to 22,2%). Radio Elmag follows with the confidence of 20,3%, but when we talk about this station, we record a negative trend (-4.8%). However, we can measure a distinct positive trend in a case of Radio D (from 4,9 to 11%). Table 26: Confidence in radio stations trend Jan. May Sept. Decem. June Sept. Feb. Radio Radio Crne Gore Radio Elmag Radio D Antena M Radio Montena Radio Svetigora Radio Free Europe Local radio stations Other radio stations

26 On the level of Podgorica the most popular is Radio D with a distinct positive trend (27,9), then Radio of Montenegro (23,4) and Radio Elmag(12,6). Table 27: Confidence in radio stataions on a level of Podgorica - trend Radio Jan. 05. May 05. Sept. 05. Decem. 05. June 06. Sept. 06. Feb. 07. Radio Crne Gore Radio Elmag Radio D Antena M Radio Montena Radio Svetigora Radio Free Europe Local radio stations Other radio stations We finished our research of confidence in media with measuring confidence in daily newspapers. Our conclusion is that the citizens still have the biggest confidence in Vijesti, although the trend is negative (from 47,9% to 44%). A journal Dan is the second, and a slight increase is recorded (from 33% to 35,1%). Finally, the third position in relation to confidence is held by Pobjeda and this daily newspaper has a slight increase (from 12,6% to 14%). Table 28: Confidence in daily newspapers trend- Daily newspapers Jan. 05. May 05. Sept. 05. Decem. 05. June 06. Sept. 06. POBJEDA VIJESTI DAN REPUBLIKA Feb. 07. POLITIKA VEČERNJE NOVOSTI BLIC OTHER NEWSPAPERS

27 9. NATO, EU, THE HAGUE Montenegro is heading towards European integrations. In this process, cooperation and incorporation in European institutions is one of the crucial questions. We also measured the attitude of public opinion to those questions in our previous research, and also in this one (table 29). First of all, there are no doubts that majority of citizens support membership of Montenegro in EU. That attitude was expressed by 74% of examinees and it represents stable and very strong support for integration of Montenegro in EU. When we talk about membership in NATO, there were no significant changes in comparison to our previous surveys; namely, at this moment 36,6% of the citizens of Montenegro support integration into this military political organization. Finally, 45,3% of examinees support complete cooperation with the Hague Tribunal in every possible form, and this datum is on the level of our previous surveys. Table 29: Membership in European Union Modality of a reply N % YES ,0 NO 83 8,4 I have no definite opinion ,6 Table 30: Membership in NATO Modality of a reply N % YES ,6 NO ,6 I have no definite opinion ,8 Table 31: Cooperation with the Hague Tribunal Modality of a reply N % YES ,3 NO ,6 I have no definite opinion ,1 27

28 10. RELIANCE IN FOREIGN POLICY A question of reliance in foreign policy became more important after the referendum, regarding the fact that, as an independent state, Montenegro can govern its own foreign policy more intensively and more independently. As a difference from previous research analyses where a conclusion was that the citizens thought that Montenegro should rely on EU, this time a survey showed that majority of the citizens think that Montenegro should rely on Serbia and then on EU. On the other hand, the USA and Russia are not seen as crucial partners. Finally, it should be mentioned that there is a respectable number of citizens who think that Montenegro should not rely on anyone, especially not in foreign policy (20,5%). Table 32: Reliance of Montenegro in foreign policy Attitudes Not at all A little To a great extent Completely EU USA RUSSIA SERBIA Note: 20,5% of examinees think that Montenegro should not rely on anyone, especially not in foreign policy. 28

29 29

30 JUNE

31 The research we present here was conducted in the period from 01st to 6th June, As well as in the previous research analyses, in this one, the emphasis is on crucial political issues which are everyday topic of discussion in Montenegrin society. CEDEM standard double stratified sample with a random choice of examinees in final units was applied on the sample of 1011 adult citizens of Montenegro from nine municipalities (Pljevlja, Berane, Bijelo Polje, Podgorica, Niksic, Cetinje, Herceg Novi, Bar and Ulcinj). A realised sample is representative for the complete electorate of Montenegro, where a post-stratificational system of correction by ponders was done according to criteria of gender, age and nationality of examinees.it should also be mentioned that a standard sampling error in relation to a demographic structure is from 1 to 1.5%. A sample structure on the basic principles of socio-demographic variables can be seen in tables 1-5. Table 1: Gender structure of examinees Categories % Male 48.8 Female 51.2 TOTAL Table 2: Age structure of examinees Categories % from 18 to 34 years 34.0 old from 35 to 54 years 36.4 old over 55 years old 28.9 No reply 0.7 TOTAL

32 Table 3: Educational structure of examinees Categories % No education 0.8 Primary education 12.4 Secondary education 60.5 Post-secondary school 14.9 qualifications University 11.4 qualifications TOTAL Table 4: Religion of examinees Categories % Orthodox 75.1 Islam 17.1 Catholic 4.3 Atheist (no religion) 3.5 TOTAL Table 5: Nationality of examinees Nationality of examinees % Montenegrins 44.2 Serbs 33.0 Bosnians 4.4 Albanians 4.8 Moslems 8.2 Croatians 2.4 Other 3.0 TOTAL

33 1. CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS In respect to the question of confidence in Montenegrin institutions, we do not notice any significnt changes in comparison to the previous research analyses. Therefore, as an institution which can be trusted most, Serbian Orthodox Church is still in the first place.then, President of Montenegro, the Government, Police, the Parliament of Montenegro, Judiciary of Montenegro, Montengrin Orthodox Church and political parties follow. In relation to the previous research we record a slight increase of confidence towards this institution. From the obtained data we can conclude that SPC (Serbian Orthodox Church) is primarily perceived as a religious institution, so that issues of political life of Montenegro do not reflect negatively on a rating it has in society. Table 6: Rank of confidence in institutions Institution N C SD Serbian Orthodox Church President of Montenegro Government of Montenegro Police of Montenegro Parliament of Montenegro Judiciary of Montenegro Montenegrin Orthodox Church Political parties in Montenegro N- number of examinees who stated their opinion; C-confidence coefficient SD-standard deviation This research as well as the previous research point to a fact that there is a confidence crisis in Montenegro. First of all, economic issues impose as a reason for the crisis, as well as the existance of constant political conflicts among the parties on the political scene. It s a standard that political parties are at the bottom of the scale, probably because they are the bearers of verbal and political conflicts in political life of Montenegro. Police of Montenegro is in the middle of the scale which measures confidence in institutions. A reason for this low rating of the police, we primarily find in a fact that a large number of murders, attacks on famous people and similar criminal acts remain without results in respect to finding out perpetrators of those crimes. 33

34 Table 7: Rank of confidence in institutions (Trend) Institutions June 06 Aug 06 Feb 07 June 07 Serbian Orthodox Church President of Montenegro Government of Montenegro Police of Montenegro Parliament of Montenegro Judiciary of Montenegro Montenegrin Orthodox Church Political parties in Montenegro If we look at coefficients which show confidence in institutions from the standpoint of a trend, it s easy to notice that there are no significant changes. Thus, Serbian Orthodox Church is still at the very top, whereas political parties in Montenegro are at the bottom. Rank of other institutions is more or less the same as in all previous periods. 2. SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT ACTIVITY Measuring of satisfaction with the government of Zeljko Sturanovic is on this ocassion also the subject of our research. Data we obtained corespond to those we have registered throughout a longer period time. As usually, cumulatively observed distrust in different degrees is bigger than confidence in the government of Montenegro. It should be mentioned that distrust is almost at the same level as it was in the last survey conducted in February, whereas on the confidence side we have a slight increase in comparison to the already mentioned research. Thus, it can be seen that 41,1% of examinees are neither satisfied nor dissatisfied with the activity of the government, whereas there is 16,1% of very dissatisfied and 18,7% of mostly dissatisfied. 18,5% of citizens comprise those mostly satisfied with the work of the government, and only 5% are very satisfied with the work of the government. 34

35 Table 8: Satisfaction with the government activity Degree of confidence / distrust % Very dissatisfied 16,1 Mostly dissatisfied 18,7 Neither satisfied nor 41,8 dissatisfied Mostly satisfied 18,5 Very satisfied 5,0 Reasons for a situation like this, with a low degree of confidence in the government, should be looked for in bad economic situation which is connected to a high rate of unemployment and on the other hand to a social polarisation of the population, which in its turn is a direct result of market liberation. Also, frequent accusations on the government s account arrive from the opposing parties which accuse the government of being involved in criminal acts, corruption, organisation of nontransparent processes of privatisation. Therefore, those are some of the possible reasons for the situation in this area, which, it should be mentioned, we can find in the majority of transitional societies. 3. A QUESTION OF CONSTITUTION Proclamation of new Constitution of Montenegro is at this moment certainly the most important and the most current issue. It represents an issue for general discussion and it s in a focus of attention of both domestic public and international institutions which deal with constitutional problems. Unfortunately, it also reflects a division which exists in all spheres of Montenegrin society. Since the way in which the Constitution will be passed is still unknown, we offered two questions related to this problem to our examinees. The first question referred to their opinion about possible passing of the Constitution in the Parliament of Montenegro. Results we obtained on that occasion show that citizens (with smaller or bigger degree of certainty) think that the Constitution will be passed in the Parliament and that it won t be necessary to schedule a referendum on passing the Constitution. More precisely, 19,6% of citizens is sure that the passing will take place in the Parliament, 29,8% believe that it will happen in that way, whereas on the other side 15,4% don t believe it will happen, 5,8% are sure it won t happen and 29,4% of citizens have no definite opinion. 35

36 Table 9: Will the Parliament proclaim new Constitution? Categories % Yes, I m sure it will 19,6 I believe it will 29,8 I don t think it will 15,4 No, I m sure it won t 5,8 I don t know, I can t decide 29,4 In connection to those problems, we thought it was necessary to find out current state of opinion of the citizens about voting on possible referendum on new Constitution. The results we obtained on this ocacasion show that if the parties don t succeed in reaching a consensus and provide the necessary majority for proclamation of new constitution in the Parliament of Montenegro, the other option, that is, voting on a referendum, becomes necessary, the majority of the citizens of Montenegro would vote for its proclamation (44%). However, we should pay attention to a large number of those who wouldn t vote at all on that referendum (41,2%). Table 10: Voting on a referendum on new constitution Categories % For 44,0 Against 14,8 Won t vote at all on that referendum 41,2 4. ELECTION PREFERENCE Measuring of rating of the political parties is always an integral part of our research. The results we obtained on this occasion are not very different from those we obtained in the February research. DPS is still on the first position (41,1%), with a slight increase of confidence in compaison to the research conducted in February. Considering rating of the parties, the following one, at the moment of the last public opinion survey, is PZP (22,4%), with stable and solid support in the electorate of Montenegro and a firm position of the strongest opposing party. It can be noticed that PZP obviously finds the way how to mobilise the supporters in a divided Montenegro. In the long run, this movement profits from conflicts and disagreements between the ruling coalition and proserbian opposing parties, because a lot of the citizens are tired of those conflicts and PZP is seen as the third option. 36

37 Table 11: Election preference Parties Election preference % Determined voters % DPS / Democratic Party of Socialists 28, SDP / Socialdemocratic Party 2,5 3.6 PZP /Movement for Changes 15, SNS / Serbian People s Party 8, SNP / Socialist People s Party 4,3 6.1 NS / People s Party 1,6 2.3 LPCG / Liberal Party of Montenegro 2,0 2.8 Serbian Radical Party 2,1 3.0 Other 4,7 6.5 I wouldn t vote on those elections 29,8 Rating of other parties on the political scene is more or less the same in comparison to the survey from February. Therefore, SNS (12,2%) imposes as the second biggest opposing party after PZP. Parties which follow are SNP (6,1%), LPCG (2,8%), NS (2,3%), ETC. 5. CONFIDENCE IN POLITICIANS AND PUBLIC FIGURES As a part of our standard procedure we conducted a survey of confidence in politicians and public figures. The data we obtained show that the most popular public figure in Montenegro (3,18) is Vanja Calovic, a nongovernmental organization MANS manager. This datum tells us a lot, and it s a fact that a nongovernmental sector in Montenegro is extremely developed and has a significant role in social life. 37

38 Table 12: Rank of politicians / public figures Rank of politicians/public N C SD figures Vanja ĆALOVIĆ Željko ŠTURANOVIĆ Nebojša MEDOJEVIĆ Milo ĐUKANOVIĆ Filip VUJANOVIĆ Gordana ĐUROVIĆ Andrija MANDIĆ Vujica LAZOVIĆ Ranko KRIVOKAPIĆ Srđan MILIĆ Miodrag ŽIVKOVIĆ Predrag POPOVIĆ Ranko KADIĆ Emilo LABUDOVIĆ Zoran ŽIŽIĆ Ferhat DINOŠA Mehmet BARDHI Rafet HUSOVIĆ Vasilj SINIŠTAJ N- number of examinees who stated their opinion; C-confidence coefficient; SD-standard deviation Prime Minister Zeljko Sturanovic is at the top of the scale (3,14), as well as a leader of PZP Nebojsa Medojevic (3,10). Typically, the president of DPS Milo Djukanovic is rated very high (3,09). Filip Vujanovic (2,99) and Gordana Djurovic(2,86) also have higher values in comparison to other politicians and public figures with significantly weaker values. 6. RESPECT OF HUMAN RIGHTS A new item in June research is a set of questions from a respect of human rights and freedom domain. The aim was to establish a current situation in this area. Additional reason for this survey was that the previous period was full of statements expressed by political parties, nongovernmental sector or individuals about human rights and freedom being imperilled. We emphasize that a higher mean value in those cases means a higher degree of human rights disrespect. 38

39 Table 13: Respect of human rights Right Freedom / Attitude N C SD Right to a fair trial in a reasonable period Right to enjoy property freely (restitution, abuse of right to build) Female rights (women at work protection, right to maternity leave, prevention of violence on women) Right to privacy (protection of letters and other communication telephone, fax, residence inviolability) Freedom of speech (in media and in public places) Right to religion National minority rights N- number of examinees who stated their opinion; C-confidence coefficient SD-standard deviation Therefore we can notice that the citizens think that their rights are most endangered in the sphere of possible realisation of fair and just trial within a reasonable period (2,91). Once again it s a confirmation that there is a lack of efficiency of Montenegrin courts, although improvement of the situation in this field represents one of the basic conditions for faster integration in EU. We also note not a really good situation when we talk about right to enjoy one s property freely (2,78), female rights (2,72), as well as right to privacy (2,66). Finally, there are, at the bottom of the scale, as rights which are imperilled least in Montenegro, rights from the area of freedom of expressing oneself, right to religion (2,63) and national minority rights (2,31). At the end, we have to point out that a degree of rights endangerment we measured is very high in all the areas which were researched and every interpretation of the results should be viewed in this light. 7. DEGREE OF CORRUPTION As a new item in comparison to the previous survey is a part in which we deal with a definition of the citizens perception in relation to corruption in Montenegrin society by a complete analysis of all its segments and with the aim to create a realistic estimation about a degree of endangerment by this phenomenon. As it could have been expected, the customs service is at the first position(7,21), because it belongs to traditionally the most endangered institutions, and there are fields 39

40 of health services (7,04), judiciary (6,90) and institutions of police (6,85). Next group, according to a degree of endangerment, comprise, in the following order, municipal services, prosecutor s office, civil services and University education. Areas of media, sport, secondary and primary education got better marks from the examinees, but even in those areas the coefficient is not irrelevant, maybe with the exception of primary education. In general, differences between the leading ones are not big and some changes can be expected within following research. Measured values are high and they point to a need for more efficient work on eradication of corruption in particular areas, but we cannot sat that the situation is alarming. Perhaps an interesting detail is that the area of judiciary is behind the area of health service, which is a bit unexpected, but quite in accordance with the mentality of Montenegrin citizens and continuous lack of financial resources necessary for this important segment of every society. Table 14: In your opinion, which area / institution is the most imperilled by corruption? Institution / Area N C SD Customs Health service Judiciary Police Municipal services Prosecutor s office Civil services University education Media (TV, radio, newspapers) Sport Secondary education Primary education N- number of examinees who stated their opinion; C-confidence coefficient, SD-standard deviation 8. FREE ACCESS TO INFORMATION LAW When free access to information law is in question, we first start from the question of how much the citizens are informed on this important legal act and on benefits which this legal act can bring to citizens of Montenegro. The results show that more than a third of the citizens don t know about its existence (38,1%), and from the remaining 40

41 part, there are more examinees who only know that it exists than those who know its concrete contents. Table 15: Are you informed that there is Free access to information law in Montenegro, according to which, citizens and organizations have the right to access to information possessed by state, that is public services? ATTITUDE % Yes, they are informed about its regulations 28,7 They ve heard of it, but they re not informed about its regulations 33,3 No, they ve never heard of such a law 38,1 In accordance with this, a percentage of those who have never asked for information of public importance is alarmingly high (81,6%), whereas on the other hand, even when the citizens tried to get information, they did it primarily in an indirect way (10,0%), and to a small extent, they did it themselves (8,4%). Table 16: Have you ever as an individual or by means of some organization, ask for some public information from public services, on the basis of Free access to information law? ATTITUDE % Yes, I did it personally 8.4 No, I didn t in any way 81.6 Not personally, but I did it by means of some organization 10.0 Further on, measuring showed that among the citizens who tried to realise rights anticipated by this law, the percentage of those it was made possible for, is bigger than the number of those where it wasn t the case, but in the majority of requirements positively solved, the insight was approved only partially, that is, it was limited in one way or another. 41