Bosnia and Herzegovina

Transcription

1 Public Opinion Poll Bosnia and Herzegovina MARCH APRIL Ipsos.

2 METHODOLOGY Ipsos.

3 METHODOLOGY DATA COLLECTION 25 March 18 April, 2017 METHOD Quantitative face to face survey within households Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI method) POPULATION Population of Bosnia and Herzegovina aged 18+ SAMPLE FRAME Polling station territories database (CEC) SAMPLE SIZE N=2000 (1000 in FBiH, 1000 in RS) Data are weighted where necessary (by region, age, gender and education) in order to reflect the true population allocation according to the 2013 census Ipsos. SAMPLING ERROR +/- 2.2% on full sample +/- 3.1% at entity level SAMPLE TYPE Stratified sample STRATIFICATION Within each entity the sample was stratified by region and settlement type STEPS OF RANDOM SELECTION Step 1: Random selection of polling stations Step 2: Random selection of households (random route technique) Step 3: Random selection of respondents within HH (Kisch scheme)

4 OVERVIEW Ipsos.

5 Citizens see BiH heading in the wrong direction; RS respondents are a bit less pessimistic about their entity than those in FBiH. Statewide FBiH RS 91% 93% 73% 5% 17% 10% RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG DIRECTION Generally speaking, do you think that things in Bosnia and Herzegovina are moving in the right or wrong direction? Generally speaking, do you think that things in FBiH are moving in the right or wrong direction? Base: FBiH Total N=1000 Generally speaking, do you think that things in RS are moving in the right or wrong direction? Base: RS Total N= Ipsos.

6 There are no significant differences among age groups on BiH s general direction. Statewide FBiH RS The right direction 4% 5% 8% The right direction 4% 2% 5% 5% The right direction 14% 12% 17% 17% 22% Wrong direction 92% 92% 92% 92% 88% Wrong direction 95% 94% 93% 93% 92% Wrong direction 7 80% 74% 75% 63% 2% 3% 2% 2% 5% 2% 4% 3% 3% 1% 10% 8% 9% 8% 14% Generally speaking, do you think that things in Bosnia and Herzegovina are moving in the right or wrong direction? Generally speaking, do you think that things in FBiH are moving in the right or wrong direction? Base: FBiH Total N=1000 Generally speaking, do you think that things in RS are moving in the right or wrong direction? Base: RS Total N= Ipsos.

7 Pessimism in both entities is tied to the lack of economic and political progress in unemployment and corruption. FBiH RS UNEMPLOYMENT 51% UNEMPLOYMENT 55% CORRUPTION 11% ECONOMICS & POVERTY 11% POLITICAL SITUATION 9% CORRUPTION 9% ECONOMICS & POVERTY 7% YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT & EMIGRATION 5% YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT & EMIGRATION CRIME 4% CRIME 2% POLITICAL SITUATION 4% NATIONALISM 2% NATIONALISM 2% OTHER (<2%) 4% OTHER (<2%) 4% 7% What would you name as the two biggest problems that FBiH is facing today? Base: FBiH Total N= Ipsos. What would you name as the two biggest problems that RS is facing today? Base: RS Total N=1000

8 Many think interethnic relations have deteriorated in the past year. BETTER Bosniak Serb 3 40% Croat 55% 40% WORSE FBiH 44% 52% RS 34% SAME Male 44% Female 37% Compared to a year ago, do you think that interethnic relations in BiH are better, worse or about the same? Ipsos.

9 There are no significant differences among age groups on inter-ethnic relations. BETTER WORSE SAME 2% 2% 2% 0% 2% 4% 8% 5% 7% 3 43% 39% 40% 44% 5 51% 51% 55% 47% Compared to a year ago, do you think that interethnic relations in BiH are better, worse or about the same? Ipsos.

10 Citizens view ethnic reconciliation as essential for the future of BiH. VERY IMPORTANT 6 5% 3% NOT IMPORTANT AT ALL 24% SOMEWHAT UNIMPORTANT SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT 90% Important (across all subgroups) In your opinion, how important is the reconciliation process for the future of BiH? Ipsos.

11 There are no significant differences among age groups on ethnic reconciliation. VERY IMPORTANT SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT SOMEWHAT UNIMPORTANT NOT IMPORTANT AT ALL 5% 3% 4% 3% 2% 5% 4% 5% 4% 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 27% 28% 23% 23% 21% 62% 63% 67% 6 72% In your opinion, how important is the reconciliation process for the future of BiH? Ipsos.

12 People are convinced that politicians use ethnic tension for political gain rather than try to reduce it. MORE INTERESTED IN REDUCING ETHNIC TENSION 7% 85% MORE INTERESTED IN USING ETHNIC TENSION FOR POLITICAL GAIN 8% Generally speaking, do you think that politicians in BiH are more interested in taking meaningful steps to reduce ethnic tension, or are they more interested in using ethnic tension for political gain? Ipsos.

13 There are no significant differences among age groups on politicians motives regarding inter-ethnic relations. MORE INTERESTED IN REDUCING ETHNIC TENSION 5% 7% 10% MORE INTERESTED IN USING ETHNIC TENSION FOR POLITICAL GAIN 89% 85% 87% 87% 81% 9% 7% 7% 9% Generally speaking, do you think that politicians in BiH are more interested in taking meaningful steps to reduce ethnic tension, or are they more interested in using ethnic tension for political gain? Ipsos.

14 There are no significant differences between entities on politicians motives regarding inter-ethnic relations. FBiH RS 84% 88% 8% 8% More interested in reducing ethnic tension More interested in using ethnic tension for political gain Generally speaking, do you think that politicians in BiH are more interested in taking meaningful steps to reduce ethnic tension, or are they more interested in using ethnic tension for political gain? Ipsos.

15 About one-half of BiH citizens are worried that ethnic tension might lead to armed conflict. 20% 33% 25% 20% 53% Worried 3% 50% FBiH 5 RS VERY WORRIED NOT VERY WORRIED SOMEWHAT WORRIED NOT AT ALL WORRIED How worried are you that ethnic tension in BiH might lead to armed conflict? Ipsos.

16 A similar percentage thinks that ethnic tensions might lead to the dissolution of the state. 15% 34% 25% 21% 49% Likely VERY LIKELY NOT VERY LIKELY SOMEWHAT LIKELY NOT AT ALL LIKELY 44% Bosniak 58% Serbs 50% Croats And how likely do you think it is that the ongoing ethnic tension might lead to the dissolution of the state? Ipsos.

17 There is significant concern about radical extremism in BiH, especially among Serbs. 21% 33% 21% 19% 54% Concerned VERY CONCERNED NOT VERY CONCERNED SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOT AT ALL CONCERNED 47% Bosniak 70% Serbs 47% Croats How concerned are you about the threat of radical extremism in BiH? Ipsos.

18 Almost six-in-10 express concern about foreign interference in the political affairs of BiH. 20% 38% 22% 1 58% Concerned VERY CONCERNED NOT VERY CONCERNED 5% SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOT AT ALL CONCERNED 53% Bosniak 70% Serbs 54% Croats And how concerned are you about foreign interference in the political affairs of BiH? Ipsos.

19 Support for EU membership remains strong among Bosniaks and Croats; Serbs are evenly split. SUPPORT OPPOSE Bosniak 11% 87% 75% 21% Serb Croat 8% 47% 4 90% SUM + SUM - Do you personally support or oppose BiH accession to EU? Ipsos.

20 Many doubt that BiH will gain EU candidate status within the next 5 years. YES 38% 53% NO Bosniak Serb 44% 49% 24% 64% YES Croat 44% 49% NO 9% Regardless of how you just answered, do you expect BiH to gain EU candidate status within the next 5 years? Ipsos.

21 CORRUPTION Ipsos.

22 Political parties and government are seen as the most corrupt public institutions in BiH. Which of the following is the most corrupt public institution in BiH? Ipsos. POLITICAL PARTIES EXECUTIVE BRANCH/GOVERNMENTS PROSECUTION AND JUDICIARY HEALTHCARE INSTITUTIONS LEGISLATIVE BRANCH/PARLIAMENTS POLICE EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS 2 27% 22% 22% 23% 21% 22% 14% 10% 21% 15% 13% 1 9% 9% 10% 10% 9% 10% 5% 5% 7% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 34% ALL BOSNIAK SERB CROAT

23 A majority of respondents point to public sector hiring as the most corrupt process. 53% 45% FBiH 50% RS 18% 12% 11% 9% PUBLIC HIRING PARTY FINANCING PUBLIC PROCUREMENT PRIVATIZATION Which of the following processes is most corrupt? Ipsos.

24 Citizens favorably view a variety of measures to reduce corruption, including economic progress and EU influence. IF WE CAN IMPROVE THE ECONOMY AND CREATE MORE PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS, WE WILL HAVE LESS CORRUPTION IN BIH 49% 35% 9% 4% INSTITUTIONS IN BIH ARE ALL CORRUPT; THEREFORE WE NEED AN INDEPENDENT THIRD PARTY TO LEAD THE FIGHT AGAINST CORRUPTION 40% 34% 11% 8% IF GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS DO NOT CONTROL CORRUPTION, THEN CITIZENS SHOULD DEMONSTRATE JUST LIKE THEY DID RECENTLY IN ROMANIA AND IN 2014 IN BIH. 37% 32% 13% IMPLEMENTATION OF ANTICORRUPTION MEASURES WOULD REDUCE ETHNIC TENSIONS IN BIH 35% 41% 12% 5% NO NEW REGULATION OR PACKAGE OF LAWS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CORRUPTION IN BIH 33% 42% 15% 5% IF WE HAVE MORE WOMEN IN POSITIONS OF LEADERSHIP IN BIH, WE WILL HAVE LESS CORRUPTION 31% 35% 15% 11% BIH NEEDS GUIDELINES AND DEADLINES FROM THE EU TO MAKE PROGRESS ON FIGHTING CORRUPTION 23% 30% 23% 18% Now I will read you a series of statements related to corruption in BiH. Please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with each statement Ipsos. STRONGLY AGREE SOMEWHAT AGREE SOMEWHAT DISAGREE STRONGLY DISAGREE

25 General consensus on the drivers of corruption in BiH. IF WE CAN IMPROVE THE ECONOMY AND CREATE MORE PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS, WE WILL HAVE LESS CORRUPTION IN BIH. IMPLEMENTATION OF ANTICORRUPTION MEASURES WOULD REDUCE ETHNIC TENSIONS IN BIH NO NEW REGULATION OR PACKAGE OF LAWS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CORRUPTION IN BIH INSTITUTIONS IN BIH ARE ALL CORRUPT; THEREFORE WE NEED AN INDEPENDENT THIRD PARTY TO LEAD THE FIGHT AGAINST CORRUPTION IF GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS DO NOT CONTROL CORRUPTION, THEN CITIZENS SHOULD DEMONSTRATE JUST LIKE THEY DID RECENTLY IN ROMANIA AND IN 2014 IN BIH. IF WE HAVE MORE WOMEN IN POSITIONS OF LEADERSHIP IN BIH, WE WILL HAVE LESS CORRUPTION BIH NEEDS GUIDELINES AND DEADLINES FROM THE EU TO MAKE PROGRESS ON FIGHTING CORRUPTION 44% 84% 82% 85% 7 78% 70% 83% 75% 78% 68% 75% 74% 78% 65% 72% 69% 75% 60% 58% 65% 68% 58% 77% 52% 55% 57% 93% All Bosniak Serb Croat Now I will read you a series of statements related to corruption in BiH. Please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with each statement Ipsos.

26 Citizens favorably rate a number of measures to fight corruption directed at privatization and political influence. CONFISCATION OF ASSETS 5 27% 10% 4% PARTY SPENDING DISCLOSURE CONFLICT OF INTEREST REFORM 42% 42% 37% 35% 12% 13% 4% 4% VERY EFFECTIVE PRIVATIZATION LAWS 42% 35% 14% 4% SOMEWHAT EFFECTIVE AUDITING PARTY ACCOUNTS A WHITE BOOK OF PUBLIC SALARIES 39% 39% 37% 35% 13% 4% 14% 5% NOT VERY EFFECTIVE PROCUREMENT REFORM INDEPENDENT PROSECUTORS 38% 38% 37% 3 14% 13% 4% NOT AT ALL EFFECTIVE ENFORCEMENT OF AUDIT RECOMMENDATIONS 31% 37% 17% CREATION OF OVERSIGHT COMMITTEES 29% 35% 21% 9% Now I am going to read you a list of measures that have been proposed for fighting corruption and increasing transparency in BiH. Please tell me whether you think each one, if properly implemented, would be very effective, somewhat effective, not very effective or not at all effective in reducing corruption Ipsos.

27 Confiscation of illegally obtained assets is considered the most important measure in reducing corruption. CONFISCATION OF ASSETS 61% PRIVATIZATION LAWS 35% PARTY SPENDING DISCLOSURE 30% INDEPENDENT PROSECUTORS PROCUREMENT REFORM AUDITING PARTY ACCOUNTS CREATION OF OVERSIGHT COMMITTEES A "WHITE BOOK" OF PUBLIC SALARIES CONFLICT OF INTEREST REFORM 24% 23% 21% 19% 1 18% ALL ANSWERS ENFORCEMENT OF AUDIT RECOMMENDATIONS 10% 19% Of the measures we have just discussed, please tell me which 2 OR 3 you think are the MOST important? Ipsos.

28 Prosecutors, the judiciary, and the international community have the most credibility on corruption measures. THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY PROSECUTORS AND THE JUDICIARY ONE OR MORE DOMESTIC CIVIL SOCIETY ORGANIZATIONS MULTIPLE POLITICAL PARTIES OR LEADERS WORKING TOGETHER A POLITICAL PARTY OR LEADER 27% 33% 15% 24% 24% 22% 31% 14% 15% 13% 18% 18% 9% 7% 12% 17% 5% 3% 10% 21% 22% 19% 19% ALL BOSNIAK SERB CROAT And what would be the most credible group to implement and enforce such an anti-corruption package? Ipsos.

29 A majority of citizens feels the international community must be part of any anti-corruption initiative in BiH, but fewer Serbs agree. 39% SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT VERY IMPORTANT 34% 73% Important 4% 11% NOT AT ALL IMPORTANT 12% NOT VERY IMPORTANT 79% Bosniak 55% Serbs 82% Croats Regardless of how you just answered, how important is the international community in advancing an anti-corruption agenda in BiH? Ipsos.

30 Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) Ipsos.

31 The Federation government is seen as failing to implement policies that improve the lives of citizens. 60% 24% 13% 2% 1% 1% LOWEST RATING HIGHEST RATING How would you rate the performance of the current Federation government in terms of implementing policies that improve the lives of citizens in the FBiH? Please use 5 point scale like in school where 1 is the lowest rating and 5 is the highest. Base: FBiH Total N= Ipsos.

32 Citizens clearly want the FBiH government to focus on corruption and socioeconomic reforms. 40% IMPLEMENTING SOCIOECONOMIC REFORM FIGHTING CRIME AND CORRUPTION 44% 4% 12% REORGANIZATION OF THE FBIH TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE What should be the priority of the FBiH Government at this time? Base: FBiH Total N= Ipsos.

33 Some citizens showed a slight change in attitudes toward the governing structure of FBiH. February/March 2016 March/April 2017 THE TERRITORIAL ARRENGEMENT OF THE FEDERATION SHOULD REMAIN UNCHANGED 13% 12% 1 13% 14% 7% THE FEDERATION BiH SHOULD BE REORGANIZED THROUGH A MERGER OF CANTONS 17% 19% 10% 20% 20% 19% THE FEDERATION SHOULD BE REORGANIZED INTO TWO ENTITIES, ONE FOR CROATS AND ONE FOR BOSNIAKS 10% 3% 3 7% 4% 24% THE FEDERATION SHOULD REMAIN ONE ENTITY, BUT CANTONS SHOULD BE ABOLISHED 2 50% 5 30% 45% 48% 10% 19% 12% 15% 14% 20% TOTAL BOSNIAK CROAT Which of the following statements best describes your personal view about the territorial arrangement of the Federation BiH? Base: FBiH Total N= Ipsos.

34 Republika Srpska (RS) Ipsos.

35 Citizens perceive the RS administration as performing poorly. 33% 27% 29% 7% 3% 10% LOWEST RATING HIGHEST RATING How would you rate the performance of the current RS government in terms of implementing policies that improve the lives of citizens in the RS? Please use 5 point scale like in school where 1 is the lowest rating and 5 is the highest. Base: RS Total N= Ipsos.

36 RS residents want action on corruption and socioeconomic reform, not ethnic protection. 35% IMPLEMENTING SOCIOECONOMIC REFORM FIGHTING CRIME AND CORRUPTION 51% 12% PROTECTING THE ETHNIC INTERESTS OF SERBS What should be the priority of the RS Government at this time? Base: RS Total N= Ipsos.

37 ELECTIONS Ipsos.

38 Statewide, about half of respondents would certainly vote if elections were held now. I WOULD CERTAINLY VOTE I WOULD PROBABLY VOTE 21% 51% 59% Older than 60 59% Higher Education Degree 53% FBiH RS 49% I PROBABLY WOULD NOT VOTE I CERTAINLY WOULD NOT VOTE 17% If elections were held next weekend, how likely is it that you would vote? Ipsos.

39 Citizens have concerns about the integrity of elections in BiH. ELECTIONS IN BiH ARE TYPICALLY FREE AND FAIR 8% 7% 9% 9% ELECTIONS IN BiH ARE TYPICALLY FREE AND FAIR, BUT WITH SOME SHORTCOMINGS ELECTIONS IN BiH ARE NOT FREE AND FAIR 27% 38% 34% 37% 50% 47% 52% 48% ALL BOSNIAK SERB CROAT 7% 5% 1 Which of the following statements comes closest to your view of elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina? Ipsos.

40 Election administration and both domestic and international observers help ensure election integrity; political parties do not. BiH CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION 8% 19% INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS 17% INDEPENDENT DOMESTIC ELECTION OBSERVERS THE NEWS MEDIA LOCAL ELECTION COMMISSIONS 5% 7% 9% 9% 15% TRUST THE MOST TRUST THE LEAST POLITICAL PARTIES 3% 41% 23% 34% Who do you trust most when it comes to ensuring free and fair elections in BiH?/Q30. Who do you trust least when it comes to ensuring free and fair elections in BiH? Ipsos.

41 One-third of BiH citizens are familiar with domestic election monitoring coalition Pod Lupom. 4% NO 63% 33% YES 52% Higher Education Degree 37% Male/29% Female 40% Bosniak/25% Serbs/18% Croats Have you ever heard of the domestic election monitoring coalition called Pod Lupom? Ipsos.

42 After a description, half of respondents think Pod Lupom can contribute to the integrity of the electoral process. VERY EFFECTIVE 18% SOMEWHAT EFFECTIVE 34% NOT VERY EFFECTIVE 20% NOT EFFECTIVE AT ALL 9% 20% Now that you know more about Pod Lupom, how effective do you think such a coalition can be in contributing to public knowledge of the electoral process and preventing violations of the electoral rules? Ipsos.

43 DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF THE SAMPLE Ipsos.

44 DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF THE SAMPLE GENDER EDUCATION AGE 18% 1 48% 52% 31% 5 22% 18% 13% 2 MALE FEMALE ELEMENTARY OR LESS SECONDARY COLLEGE/UNIVERSITY Ipsos.

45 DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF THE SAMPLE TYPE OF SETTLEMENT ETHNICITY 47% 55% 45% 41% 9% URBAN RURAL BOSNIAK SERB CROAT OTHER Ipsos.

46 DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF THE SAMPLE REGIONS Region % Una-Sana Canton 6.0 Tuzla Canton 10.6 Zenica-Doboj Canton 8.3 Central Bosnia Canton 5.3 Herzegovina-Neretva Canton 4.8 West Herzegovina Canton 1.7 Canton Sarajevo 10.2 Canton 10 (Livno) 1.6 Posavina Canton.9 Bosnian-Podrinje Canton.6 North Republika Srpska 30.2 East Republika Srpska 17.1 District Brcko 2.7 ENTITY 50% 50% FBiH RS & DISTRICT BRCKO Ipsos.