Williams and Associates. Exit Poll Analysis. Republic of Macedonia 2002 Parliamentary Elections

Transcription

1 B R I M A Macedonian member of GALLUP International and Associate of Taylor Nelson Sofres Williams and Associates Exit Poll Analysis Republic of Macedonia 2002 Parliamentary Elections Williams and Associates 342 Essex Street Salem, Massachusetts Phone (978) Fax (978)

2 Monition This analysis is provided solely for the use of the International Republican Institute, its employees, and consultants. Should the International Republican Institute release any portion of the analysis to any public medium, it is the responsibility of the International Republican Institute to insure that the release is in conformity with the analysis provided herein. Williams and Associates reserves the right to correct any public release of erroneous data or analysis by the release of the correct information or any such other methods as may be necessary. Williams and Associates #1122 Macedonian Exit Poll Williams and Associates 342 Essex Street Salem Massachusetts (978) Page 2

3 Introduction and Notes on Analysis This survey examines the results of 9321 voters in the 2002 Macedonian Parliamentary Elections. The sample was designed using, and interviews were distributed according to, official voter turnout statistics provided by the Macedonian State Election Commission. The interviews were conducted by intercept methodology using scientifically designed selection patterns at each of the 150 polling stations. All interviews were completed on September 15 th Some important points to remember when evaluating the results are: Trained, professional interviewers under the supervision of Williams and Associates and Brima staff conducted all interviews. All completed survey data was returned to Williams and Associates for processing and analysis. A copy of the full questionnaire with marginal results appears in Appendix A. Copies of demographic tables appear in Appendix B. Williams and Associates 342 Essex Street Salem Massachusetts (978) Page 3

4 Overview and Analysis Before any discussion on the specific results of the exit poll, a word or two on the performance of the exit poll are in order. All in all the exit poll performed remarkable well. While we have as yet no "official" results of the election, comparisons of the preliminary results released by the State Election Commission show that the exit poll results, nationally and within electoral district, are very close to the actual returns from the election. For the major parties the top seven likely to achieve parliamentary seats (Together for Macedonia, Together for You, DUI, DPA, PDP, NDP, and the Socialist Party) so far the largest variance from the preliminary results is less than a 1 (0.9) under vote for the largest vote getter and the second to the lowest recipient of votes (together for Macedonia and the NDP respectively). Overall the average variance among the major parties is While the variations are more significant within electoral district results, in no case (with the top seven parties at any rate) do the numbers vary by more than 9 Together for Macedonia within District 5). On average the variation is between 2 and 3. Considering that on average exit polls conducted in the United States have a variance of 4 to 6 the performance of this exit poll is exceptionally good. There are some elements of the survey that are somewhat deficient, but can be overlooked because of the polls performance and the general lack of "reliable" census and electoral history data. A review of the demographics shows that, with the exception of the question on gender, the demographics generally conform to the response rates achieved through regular polling efforts conducted during the course of the election cycle. We have chosen therefore not to apply any differential weights to the raw data. The one concern we did have was response to the gender question, which had the second highest refusal (or missing data rate) among the demographics (12). There was also a significant skew toward male respondents in the exit poll (64 to 34). In the pre-election surveys, as in the United States we strive for a roughly equal division among gender. We cannot determine from the data whether the sample was indeed skewed toward males, or whether females were more likely than males to refuse to Williams and Associates 342 Essex Street Salem Massachusetts (978) Page 4

5 the gender question. However, since there appears to be a very small division between the males and females in levels of support for individual parties our decision was to leave the data in the form that it was received. Structurally there were some very interesting results within the data set. As in the United States older voters vote early. As age increases so does the percentage of vote in the earliest collection period (7:00 to 10:00 AM) from 15 of the year olds to 38 of those over 65. Nearly two-thirds of those 55 to 65, and over seven in ten (72) of those over 65, had voted by 1:00 PM. Conversely majorities of those under 35 voted after 1:00. Those with the lowest and highest education levels tended to vote earlier than their counterparts. Together for Macedonia voters tended, more than Together for You voters, to vote earlier as did DPA supporters. While just over a majority of respondents claim to have a long standing attachment to the party for which they voted (51), a significant minority of just over one-third (34) made their decision within three months of the election. Just fewer than three in ten (28) decided within the last 30 days. Over one-fifth (22) decided within the final week. Seventeen percent decided on Election Day. When asked why they voted for this party, the most common response was that the respondents "trust" this party the most (46). Trust was followed by historical support (15), the party's leader (11), the party's position on issues (9), that this party is not as bad as the others (7), and because of the candidate leading the list (5). When asked what the new government's first priority should be, there was an almost even split between peace and stability and the economic issues presented on the list (40 to 39 respectively). Establishing peace and stability was the most often selected priority at 40 but was followed closely by the "pocket book" issues of economic development (16), creating Williams and Associates 342 Essex Street Salem Massachusetts (978) Page 5

6 new jobs (12), and reducing poverty (11) that, when aggregated, tallies to 39. The other significant responses were, implementing the framework agreement (5), fighting corruption (3), and improving inter-ethnic relations (2). While our respondents in the exit poll are much more likely to think things have improved in Macedonia during the past four years than in our pre-election surveys, the results on whether things have improved or deteriorated since the last parliamentary election tend to closely resemble support by party. Twenty-six percent of the respondents believe that their living standard has gotten better while 40 believe it's gotten worse. The final 34 believe that their standard of living has remained the same. half of those who see a better living standard over the past four years are Together for You voters, while 63 of those who see deterioration in living standard are Together for Macedonia voters. In terms of support for each of the major parties within electoral districts and other demographic segments we again note some interesting trends. Together for Macedonia while garnering 40 of the total vote in the exit poll performed best in Districts One and Four capturing 50 of the vote in both these districts. The exit poll also had them doing particularly well in District Six with 24 of the vote, however preliminary tallies from the SEC show support at only 16. Together for Macedonia also showed strong voter cohesion with 86 of those claiming to have supported SDSM in 1998 voting for them in this election. Among those who claim "always to support the party" they voted for, 50 voted for Together for Macedonia. There was a slight gender differential in support with 40 of males and 44 of females supporting Together for Macedonia. Together for Macedonia performed best among respondents in the 45 to 64 year old age cohort, did best among Williams and Associates 342 Essex Street Salem Massachusetts (978) Page 6

7 respondents in the middle income groups between 12,000 and 24,000 Denar in monthly household income, and generally performed better among higher educated respondents, and those from Skopje. Together for You garnered 24 of the overall vote in the exit poll and had its strongest showing in Districts Three, Four, and Five, and its weakest showing in District One. It's clear from analysis of the data that Together for You had lost a significant amount of support from Only seven in ten VMRO-DPMNE supporters in 1998 voted for the coalition in this year's election, with nearly half of the defector's moving to Together for Macedonia coalition while the other half is distributed through other smaller parties. Support was highest among voters in the 25 to 34 year old age cohort, and among the highest monthly income category. Support also tended to be highest among those from the lowest educational attainment group and from settlements between 20,000 to 50,000 abitants. Socialist Party voters were most likely to vote at the end of the day, had their best showing in District Three, and were most likely to receive support from the lowest monthly household income group. The Socialist Party also shows significant declines from four years ago. Only 57 of 1998 SPM voters supported them in Nearly 20 of SPM voters in 1998 moved to the Together for Macedonia coalition in Albanian voters generally tended, more than the Macedonian voters, to vote in the middle hours of the day mostly between 10:00 AM and 4:00 PM. They also tended to make up their minds much later in the election cycle. Twenty-two percent of Albanian respondents made their voting decision on Election Day compared to only 14 of Macedonians. They are more likely than ethnic Macedonians to use party leaders and "trust in the party" as cues for whom to vote. Twenty-four percent look to the party leaders compared to only 6 for ethnic Macedonians. Williams and Associates 342 Essex Street Salem Massachusetts (978) Page 7

8 Ethnic Albanians are less likely to think things have deteriorated since 1998 and therefore are more likely than ethnic Macedonians to want the new government's priority to be on Framework Agreement implementation and less on job creation. Analysis in support levels for the Albanian parties also reveals some interesting developments. DUI voters tend to be strongest among the youngest age cohort and within the 55 to 64 year old cohort. They tend to come from the lower end of the income scale ( Denar), have a secondary education, are more rural than urban, and tend to live in settlements between 1001 and 5000 abitants. The DUI drew 46 of its vote from 1998 DPA voters and over a third (32) from 1998 PDP voters. PDP voters follow a similar profile to DUI voters in that they garner support predominantly from rural areas, from settlements between 10,001 and 20,000 abitants, from the lowest monthly income category, and from the same age cohort as the DUI (55 to 64 year olds). The PDP retained only 28 of its 1998 vote losing over half of its support (56) to the DUI. The DPA and the NDP are the more urban Albanian party options the DPA doing particularly well in settlements with over 50,000 abitants and in Skopje. The DPA does best among the youngest age cohort (18-24), and among males more than females, performs best among the highest income category, and among better educated Albanians The DPA also lost significant support among its 1998 voters. While managing to retain a better proportion of its 1998 vote than did the PDP (38 to 28), a large proportion of 1998 voters (48) defected to the DUI. Williams and Associates 342 Essex Street Salem Massachusetts (978) Page 8

9 Williams and Associates 342 Essex Street Salem Massachusetts (978) Page 9

10 Appendix A The Questionnaire FOR WHOM DID YOU VOTE: 1. Together for You Together for Macedonia DUI DPA PDP SPM NDP DA DS VMRO-Macadonia Other...6 When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates? 1 - Today Within the last week In the last month to 3 months ago m ago Always vote for the same party...51 Which of the following reasons best describes why you voted for that list? 1 - Trust this party the most Party leader Party's stance on the issues Candidate leading the list They are not as bad as other parties I have always votes for this party Other one...2 Williams and Associates 342 Essex Street Salem Massachusetts (978) Page 10

11 For which political party did you vote on parliamentary elections 1998? 1 VMRO DPMNE SDSM DA PDP DPA LDP SPM OTHER Didn t vote...8 What should the new government's first priority be? 1. Establishing peace and stability Economic development Creating new jobs Improving Inter-ethnic relations Fighting Corruption Implementing the Framework Agreement Education Reducing Poverty Other DK...1 Since 1998 is your living standard: 1 - Geting better Stay the same Geting worse...40 Are you : 1 - Male Female...36 How old are you : years years years years years over 65 years...5 Williams and Associates 342 Essex Street Salem Massachusetts (978) Page 11

12 Your monthly household income in total : ,000 den ,001-6,000 den ,001-12,000 den ,001-18,000 den ,001-24,000 den ,000 den Nationality : 1 - Macedonian Albanian Turk Roma Serb Other...2 Education : 1 - Up to elementary Elementary Secondary Higher...30 District 1. District One District Two District Three District Four District Five District Six...17 Urban/Rural 1. Urban Rural...50 Williams and Associates 342 Essex Street Salem Massachusetts (978) Page 12

13 Appendix B Supplemental Demographic Tables Wave Number Subgroup Percentages Wave Number SUBGROUP Time interval- 7:00 10:00 Time interval- 10:01 13:00 Time interval- 13:01 16:00 Time interval- 16:01 19:00 Overall Distribution Wave Number district Time interval- 7:00 10:00 Time interval- 10:01 13:00 Time interval- 13:01 16:00 Time interval- 16:01 19:00 district No.1 district No.2 district No.3 district No.4 district No.5 district No Together for You Together for Macedonia DUI Recoded Vote DPA PDP SPM NDP Other When did you decide to vote for this list of Today Within the last week

14 14 candidates In the last month to 3 months ago 3 months ago Always vote for the same party one Trust this party the most Party leader Reasons that describe why you voted for that list Party's stance on the issues Candidate leading the list They are not as bad as other parties I have always voted for this party Other one VMRO-DPMNE SDSM DA PDP Which political party in 1998 have you voted for? DPA LDP SPM Other DK one Gotten better Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or... Stayed the same Gotten worse one

15 15 What should the new government's first priority be? Establishing peace and stability Economic development Creating new jobs Improving Interethnic relations Fighting Corruption Implementing the Framework Agreement Education Reducing Poverty Other DK one Gender Male Female yrs yrs yrs Age yrs yrs yrs one Total monthly household income 0 3,000 den ,001 6,000 den ,001 12,000 den. 12,001 18,000 den. 18,001 24,000 den ,000+ den

16 16 one Macedonian Albanian Turk Nationality Roma Serb Vlach Other one Up to elementary Elementary Education Secondary Higher one RURAL/URBAN Rural Urban up to SETTLEMENT TYPE Skopie

17 17 District Subgroup Percentages district SUBGROU P Electora l district No.1 Electora l district No.2 Electora l district No.3 Electora l district No.4 Electora l district No.5 Electora l district No.6 Overall Distribution Wave Number district Recoded Vote Time interval- 7:00 10:00 Time interval- 10:01 13:00 Time interval- 13:01 16:00 Time interval- 16:01 19:00 district No.1 district No.2 district No.3 district No.4 district No.5 district No.6 Together for You Together for Macedonia DUI DPA PDP SPM NDP

18 Other Today When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates Within the last week In the last month 1 to 3 months ago 3 months ago Always vote for the same party one Trust this party the most Party leader Reasons that describe why you voted for that list Party's stance on the issues Candidate leading the list They are not as bad as other parties I have always voted for this party Other one Which political party in 1998 have you voted for? VMRO- DPMNE SDSM DA PDP DPA LDP SPM

19 Other DK Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or... What should the new government's first priority be? one Gotten better Stayed the same Gotten worse one Establishing peace and stability Economic developmen t Creating new jobs Improving Inter-ethnic relations Fighting Corruption Implementin g the Framework Agreement Education Reducing Poverty Other DK one Gender Age Male Female yrs yrs yrs yrs

20 55 64 yrs yrs Total monthly household income one 0 3,000 den. 3,001 6,000 den. 6,001 12,000 den. 12,001 18,000 den. 18,001 24,000 den ,000+ den one Macedonian Albanian Turk Nationality Roma Serb Vlach Other one Up to elementary Elementary Education Secondary Higher one RURAL/URBA N Rural Urban SETTLEMENT TYPE up to

21 Skopie

22 22 Party / Coalition Preference Subgroup Percentages Recoded Vote SUBGRO UP Togeth er for You Together for Macedo nia DUI DPA PDP SPM NDP Other Overall Distribution Time interval- 7:00 10: Wave Number Time interval- 10:01 13:00 Time interval- 13:01 16: Time interval- 16:01 19: district No district No district district No.3 district No district No district No Recoded Vote Together for You Together for Macedonia

23 23 DUI DPA PDP SPM NDP Other Today Within the last week In the last month When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates 1 to 3 months ago 3 months ago Always vote for the same party one Reasons that describe why you voted for that list Trust this party the most Party leader Party's stance on the issues Candidate leading the list They are not as bad as other parties

24 24 I have always voted for this party Other one VMRO- DPMNE SDSM DA PDP Which political party in 1998 have you voted for? DPA LDP SPM Other DK one Gotten better Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or... Stayed the same Gotten worse one What should the new government' s first priority be? Establishin g peace and stability Economic developme nt

25 25 Creating new jobs Improving Interethnic relations Fighting Corruption Implementi ng the Framework Agreement Education Reducing Poverty Other DK one Gender Male Female yrs yrs yrs Age yrs yrs yrs one Total monthly household 0 3,000 den. income 3,001 6,000 den

26 26 6,001 12,000 den ,001 18,000 den ,001 24,000 den ,000+ den one Macedonia n Albanian Turk Nationality Roma Serb Vlach Other one Up to elementary Elementary Education Secondary Higher one RURAL/URB AN Rural Urban SETTLEMEN T TYPE up to

27 Skopie

28 28 When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates Subgroup Percentages When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates SUBGROU P Today Within the last week In the last month 1 to 3 month s ago More than 3 month s ago Alway s vote for the same party More than one answe r Overall Distribution Time interval- 7:00 10: Wave Number Time interval- 10:01 13:00 Time interval- 13:01 16: Time interval- 16:01 19: district No district No district district No.3 district No district No district No Recoded Vote Together for You Together for Macedonia DUI DPA

29 29 PDP SPM NDP Other Today When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates Within the last week In the last month 1 to 3 months ago 3 months ago Always vote for the same party one Trust this party the most Party leader Party's stance on the issues Reasons that describe why you voted for that list Candidate leading the list They are not as bad as other parties I have always voted for this party Other one

30 30 VMRO- DPMNE SDSM DA PDP Which political party in 1998 have you voted for? DPA 11.5 LDP SPM Other DK one Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or... Gotten better Stayed the same Gotten worse one What should the new government's first priority be? Establishing peace and stability Economic developmen t Creating new jobs Improving Inter-ethnic relations Fighting Corruption Implementin g the Framework Agreement

31 31 Education Reducing Poverty Other DK one Gender Male 63.7 Female yrs yrs yrs Age yrs yrs yrs one ,000 den ,001 6,000 den Total monthly household income 6,001 12,000 den. 12,001 18,000 den ,001 24,000 den ,000+ den one Nationality Macedonian

32 32 Albanian Turk Roma Serb Vlach Other one Up to elementary Elementary Education Secondary Higher one RURAL/URBA N Rural 50.3 Urban up to SETTLEMENT TYPE Skopie

33 33 Reason for Party / Coalition Preference Subgroup Percentages Reasons that describe why you voted for that list SUBGRO UP Trust this party the most Party leade r Party' s stanc e on the issue s Candida te leading the list They are not as bad as other partie s I have alway s voted for this party Other More than one answ er Overall Distribution Time interval- 7:00 10: Wave Number Time interval- 10:01 13:00 Time interval- 13:01 16: Time interval- 16:01 19: district No district No district district No.3 district No district No district No

34 34 Together for You Together for Macedonia DUI Recoded Vote DPA 5.0 PDP SPM NDP Other Today Within the last week In the last month When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates 1 to 3 months ago 3 months ago Always vote for the same party one Reasons that describe why you voted for that list Trust this party the most Party leader Party's stance on the issues Candidate leading the list

35 35 They are not as bad as other parties I have always voted for this party Other one VMRO- DPMNE SDSM DA PDP Which political party in 1998 have you voted for? DPA 11.5 LDP SPM Other DK one Gotten better Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or... Stayed the same Gotten worse one What should the new government' s first Establishin g peace and stability

36 36 priority be? Economic developme nt Creating new jobs Improving Inter-ethnic relations Fighting Corruption Implementi ng the Framework Agreement Education Reducing Poverty Other DK one Gender Male 63.7 Female yrs yrs yrs Age yrs yrs yrs one Total monthly 0 3,000 den

37 37 household income 3,001 6,000 den ,001 12,000 den ,001 18,000 den ,001 24,000 den ,000+ den one Macedonia n Albanian Turk Nationality Roma 1.1 Serb Vlach Other one Up to elementary Elementary Education Secondary Higher one RURAL/URB AN Rural 50.3 Urban

38 38 up to SETTLEMEN T TYPE Skopie

39 Vote Subgroup Percentages Which political party in 1998 have you voted for? SUBGR OUP VMR O- DPM NE SDS M DA PDP DPA LDP SPM Othe r DK More than one answ er Overall Distribution Time interval- 7:00 10: Time interval- 10:01 13: Time interval- 13:01 16: Wave Number Time interval- 16:01 19: district No district No district No district No district No district district No Recoded Vote Together for You

40 40 Together for Macedoni a DUI DPA PDP SPM NDP Other Today Within the last week In the last month When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates 1 to 3 months ago 3 months ago Always vote for the same party one Reasons that describe why you voted for that list Trust this party the most Party leader Party's stance on the issues Candidat e leading the list

41 41 They are not as bad as other parties I have always voted for this party Other one VMRO- DPMNE SDSM DA PDP Which political party in 1998 have you voted for? DPA LDP SPM Other DK one Gotten better Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or... Stayed the same Gotten worse one

42 42 Establishi ng peace and stability Economic developm ent Creating new jobs Improvin g Interethnic relations Fighting Corruptio n Implemen ting the Framewor k Agreeme nt Educatio n Reducing Poverty Other DK What should the new governmen t's first priority be? one Male Gender Female yrs yrs yrs yrs Age yrs

43 yrs one ,000 den ,001 6,000 den ,001 12,000 den ,001 18,000 den ,001 24,000 den ,000+ den Total monthly household income one Macedoni an Albanian Turk Roma Serb Vlach Other Nationality one Up to elementar y Education Elementa ry

44 44 Secondar y Higher one Rural RURAL/UR BAN Urban up to SETTLEME NT TYPE Skopie

45 45 Standard of Living Trend Subgroup Percentages Since 1998 has your living standard gotten better or... SUBGROUP Gotten better Stayed the same Gotten worse one Overall Distribution Wave Number district Time interval- 7:00 10:00 Time interval- 10:01 13:00 Time interval- 13:01 16:00 Time interval- 16:01 19:00 district No.1 district No.2 district No.3 district No.4 district No.5 district No Together for You Together for Macedonia DUI Recoded Vote DPA PDP SPM NDP Other When did you decide to vote for this list of candidates Today Within the last week In the last month to 3 months ago