Survey. Board: GD.i.R. Dkfm.Dr. Heinz KIENZL (Acting president) Univ.-Prof.Dr. Rudolf RICHTER (Science director) Author: Mag.

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1 Survey of the Paul Lazarsfeld-Society for Social Research SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO AFTER THE UPHEAVAL Board: GD.i.R. Dkfm.Dr. Heinz KIENZL (Acting president) Univ.-Prof.Dr. Rudolf RICHTER (Science director) Author: Mag. Stefan SCHALLER Vienna, January 2001 P L G PAUL LAZARSFELD SOCIETY FÜR SOCIAL RESEARCH A-1090 Wien, Maria Theresien-Straße 19/9 * Tel: (+43-1) * Fax: * plg@aon.at 1

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction Sample Structure Experiences from the Survey in Serbia Experiences from the Survey in Montenegro 4 2. Evaluation of the Current Individual Economic Situation Unemployment Personal Income Personal Net Monthly Income Satisfaction of Basic Needs Need to Take on a Second Job Evaluation of the Economic Situation of Private Households Household Equipment 7 3. Evaluation of the Future Individual Economic Situation 7 4. Evaluation of the Economy What People Expect from the Government 8 5. Assessment of Systems of Government by the Yugoslav People Current Situation Attitude towards the former Communist Regime Attitudes towards Other Systems of Government Basic Individual/Civil Rights Trust in Institutions Level of Corruption and Accepting Bribes Trust in Public Institutions and Authorities Trust in the President Trust in the Prime Minister Trust in the Government Trust in Parliament Trust in the Courts Trust in the Media Trust in the Police and Military Trust in Political Parties and Trade Unions Trust in Civil Servants Trust in Churches Expectations and Fears The Government s Ability to Solve Problems Individual Threats: Rising Prices and Unemployment Pricing Policy by the State or Free-Market Economy Egalitarianism versus Individual Achievement State Welfare versus Individual Responsibility 17 2

3 8.6. State Ownership versus Private Enterprise Yugoslavia s Future Position in Europe Summary Attitude towards the European Union and National Pride Identification Attitude towards Joining the European Union National Pride Nationalism and Patriotism Feelings of Closeness to Other Countries Willingness to Work Abroad and to Emigrate 19 3

4 1. Introduction 1.1. Sample Structure For the second time since 1998, within the framework of a project entitled New Democracies Barometer, the Paul Lazarsfeld-Gesellschaft für Sozialforschung has conducted a publicopinion survey in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The survey was carried out in form of face-to-face interviews from 1 to 19 December To make comparative analysis possible, our survey was based on the sample used in March 1998 (N = 1000) with an identical set of questions. The New Democracies Barometer covers two republics within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia Serbia and Montenegro whereas the Autonomous Region of Kosovo and Metochia is not included in our survey. Due to the significant disproportion in population size between the two republics included in the survey, the Montenegro subsample is overrepresented. If the survey were based on the actual shares of the different groups, the Montenegrin subsample would not even comprise 100 interviewees, which would be insufficient for proper statistical operations. Moreover, the regional, cultural and ethnic differences within Montenegro s population would not be represented in a scientifically satisfactory way in such a small subsample. The field work was carried out in 50 communities: 8 of them in the Belgrade district, 10 in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina, 21 in Central Serbia and 11 in Montenegro. The interviews were carried out exclusively in the homes of the person interviewed, with only one member of that household being interviewed Experiences from the Survey in Serbia Reports from local team leaders and interviewers show that the survey was conducted under more favorable circumstances than in Contrary to our previous fieldwork experience, the interviewers generally encountered positive attitudes in their interaction with the persons interviewed. In comparison to 1998, the number of rejections shows a clear decrease. However, some of the interviewees did not seem completely frank when asked about their monthly income (especially additional income). In addition, questions concerning their level of education and household equipment were often met with suspicion. In some cases, objections were raised against the survey in general. Some of those interviewed had the impression that it was too early for this type of survey especially concerning any comparison of the old and new political systems. Confusion was also apparent concerning the concept of previous Communist regime : many interviewees did not know to which regime the questions were referring to the former socialist regime, or the regime brought down in October Experience from the Survey in Montenegro During the fieldwork in the Federal Republic of Montenegro, interviewers had to deal with a lot of distrust about the purpose of the survey and who was sponsoring it. Compared to the fieldwork in Serbia, the number of rejections was high close to 50% in Ulcinj, a municipality with majority Albanian population. 4

5 Current Montenegrin attempts to gain independence became clear during the survey. Questions regarding national identity and political attitudes were met with extraordinary suspicion and distrust. A large number of the people interviewed insisted on differentiating between Montenegro and Serbia, demonstrating a low level of identification with the concept of Yugoslavia. Many associate the concept of my country (Questions 34a and 35b) with Montenegro, though the questionnaire means Yugoslavia. Finally, uncertainty arose concerning questions about federal institutions to many people, it was not clear which institutions were meant those from Montenegro, or those from Yugoslavia. 2. Evaluation of the Current Individual Economic Situation 2.1. Unemployment In comparison to our first survey, the unemployment rate in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia is on the increase. In 2000, more than half of the population was unemployed at least some of the time. The results show that 29% of all Yugoslav citizens (as opposed to 30% in 1998) were unemployed over the last year for a given period and 26% had at least one family member who was unemployed (20% in 1998), while 46% said that they had not been unemployed over the last year (50% in 1998). Closer analyses show that there is an ongoing trend towards long-term unemployment (already visible in 1998): 72% (as opposed to 73% in 1998) stated that they had been unemployed for more than six months, 14% had been out of work for weeks (13% in 1998), 10% had been unemployed for 7 12 weeks (7% in 1998). Only 4% had been unemployed for a shorter period of time (6% in 1998) Personal Income The situation regarding personal income is seen much more pessimistically than it had been two years before. Two out of every three people interviewed do not receive enough money from their regular job to purchase what they really need. Only a small minority (8%) gets definitely enough to live adequately, with 21% saying that they get just enough. For the vast majority, the income from their regular job is insufficient: About 30% say it is not quite enough, and 41% answer it is definitely not enough. In 1998, the number of those who said they received definitely enough or just enough from their regular job had been much higher: 13% said they were very satisfied with their personal income and 28% said they just got along. In comparison with the current situation, the number of those who felt that they were not earning quite enough to make a living showed a slight increase (from 32% in 1998). On the other hand, we were confronted with a dramatic increase in the really poor segments of Yugoslav society (in 1998, 28% indicated that what they got was definitely not enough, with a rise to 41% in 2000) Personal Net Monthly Income When asked to provide details on their personal net monthly income, people often showed very little willingness to do so. These results reflect the worsening economic situation in the country: 34% declare that they earn less than 1000 Dinars per month, 40% have to manage 5

6 with less than 2000 and 18% say that their disposable income ranges between 2000 and Only a small minority has a personal net income higher than 3000 Dinars: about 5% estimate it between 3000 and 4000; and 1%, between 4000 and 5000 Dinars. The personal net income of the top 2% of those people is even higher. As we look at the figures on net household income, we see that about 10% have to manage with less than 1000 Dinars, while 27% estimate their monthly income as between 1000 and 2000 Dinars. In 25% of all households, the disposable income ranges between 2000 and 3000 Dinars, and another 20% estimate it as between 3000 and 4000 Dinar. Only 11% of all households report getting more than 4000 Dinar, and the monthly income is even higher in the top 8% of the households included in our survey Satisfaction of Basic Needs Due to the remarkable increase in poverty since 1998, a growing number of Serbs and Montenegrins have been forced to do without the bare necessities (food, heating and electricity, clothes) for at least some period of time. When asked, 7% (as opposed to 2% in 1998) said they often could not afford enough food, with 16% (7% in 1998) reporting having to face this problem sometimes and 15% rarely. Some 61% were never confronted with a lack of food (77% in 1998). Looking at heating and electricity, we can see similar tendencies: 7% of all the households represented in our survey often had to do without this basic necessity, and 18% had to do without sometimes. In 1998, the figures were significantly lower (3% often, 12% sometimes ). In the previous year, 57% of all households never had to face this problem. For a large percentage of the Yugoslav population, people cannot count on having the clothes they need. According to 26% of those interviewed, they often could not afford to purchase all the clothing they needed (with 22% sometimes encountering this difficulty). In comparison to our first survey, the figures for those who answered often have dramatically increased (from 15% in 1998, when 26% sometimes had to deal with this problem). Contrary to this, however, the number of those never having to face a lack of clothing decreased from 42% in 1998 to 32% in Need to Take on a Second Job Due to the unsatisfactory individual economic situation, nearly half of all those interviewed are forced to take on a second job. Compared to our first survey, we see only small changes: 18% of those interviewed work a second job (as opposed to 19% in 1998), and 33% (30% in 1998) have at least one person in their family doing it. Only 49% work exclusively at their regular job (51% in 1998). It is not surprising that the small number of households able to save any money at all has continued to decrease since 1998 (from 12% in 1998 to 7% in 2000). In fact, more people have been forced to live off part of their savings (18%) or to borrow money (16%). The latter percentage is twice as high as in A little over half (52%) neither saved money nor spent savings (56% in 1998). 6

7 2.5. Evaluation of the Economic Situation of Private Households It is only natural that the people interviewed assess their individual economic situation as mostly unsatisfactory. Almost 80% consider their current economic situation as not very satisfactory (48%) or very unsatisfactory (31%). One should note, however, that it is above all the number of those who are very unsatisfied that has strongly increased (by 25% since 1998). Only 18% are fairly satisfied (as opposed to 24% in 1998) and only a small part of the population (3%) seems to have no reason to worry about its economic situation, classifying it as very satisfactory. The current economic situation marks the lowest level in a continuous decline into economic depression. Most interviewees agree with the fact that the economic situation of Yugoslav households in general has worsened to a greater or lesser extent since 1992: 44% said that their household had been better off eight years ago, and 36% think that their situation had been a little better. For only about 10% of the households represented in the survey nothing has changed over the past eight years. Only 5% and 4% are a little better off or much better off than in In retrospect, people judged the economic situation of their household far more skeptically in 1998 than they do now. Two years ago, 55% said that their household had been much better off before the economic reforms started, while only 27% thought that it had been just a little better Household Equipment Taking a look at the equipment people had, we saw the necessary basic equipment in almost every Yugoslav household: 99% own a refrigerator and 93% a washing machine. There was a telephone in 85% of the households visited. On the other hand, the number of those who own a microwave oven or a dishwasher is small indeed (9% for each). In 94% of all the households visited, we found a color TV, in 81% a radio, in 78% a cassette player and in 55% a VCR. Satellite dishes (15%), computers (12%), cable TV (10%) and video cameras are considered luxury goods. There is a car in 60% of all Yugoslav households, with 10% owning a motorcycle. Of those interviewed, 16% own a country home and 52% have their own garden. 3. Evaluation of the Future Individual Economic Situation Despite dissatisfaction with the present situation, we can nevertheless see great optimism regarding the future development of one s individual standard of living. The overwhelming majority of the Yugoslav population is sure of finally having overcome the worst effects of the economic crisis. People expect improvement in their financial situation in the near future. Compared with 1998, the general atmosphere is much more positive. Almost half of all those interviewed (47%) are sure they will reach a satisfactory standard of living within the next five years, and 16% within this group expect this to happen within the next year or two (with 31% thinking it will take three to five years). On the other hand, 17% 7

8 hope to reach their goal within 6 to 10 years, while 12% are afraid it will take more than 10 years to finally arrive at an acceptable level of prosperity. Only 5% have no hope of ever changing their living circumstances for the better, while 15% were not able express any opinion. In 1998, we noticed a much more pessimistic atmosphere. At this time, only a small minority (7%) believed in the possibility of ever reaching a satisfactory standard of living in the next two years, while 19% expected this period to last at least three to five years. In 1998, 15% hoped to reach an acceptable standard of living within five to ten years, while 16% thought that this would take more than ten years. With 12% answering never, the percentage of the most skeptical was clearly higher than it is today. We could also detect a higher level of uncertainty among people regarding their individual future: Compared to now, the number of those answering do not know was 7% higher in Today s optimistic tendency becomes even more clear when we ask people to tell us their expectations regarding the future economic situation of their household within the next five years. While two years ago only 8% believed that any great improvement in their economic situation would happen within the next five years, the corresponding percentage had increased to 27% by December In 1998, 47% hoped that their situation would slightly improve; but in 2000, 59% believed that it would. The number of those not expecting anything to change has decreased from 35% in March 1998 to 12% in December Currently, very few people believe the economic situation will get worse. Altogether, only 2% fear it. The number of pessimists is 8% lower than in Evaluation of the Economy Because of the current economic depression, people s perceptions of the present state of the Yugoslav economy are predominantly negative, with 67% of the population giving some negative scores and 26% choosing the most negative score possible. 1 Only 21% give positive scores, and those showing a high level of satisfaction can barely be noticed (with 1.4% scoring at +70 to +100). It seems worth mentioning that people see the Yugoslav economy in a slightly more positive light than two years ago (19% in 1998), although the living standard of most of the people interviewed has greatly decreased. The current weakness in the Yugoslav economy has had a favorable effect on how people assess the socialist planned economy: 67% give it positive marks, which constitutes a slight decrease compared to our first survey (73% in 1998). Only 23% of all the interviewees have negative perceptions of the economy in former communist Yugoslavia (as opposed to 20% in 1998). As far as future development is concerned, we can see great optimism within Yugoslavia s population: 76% believe things will develop positively within the next five years (46% give scores of between +50 and +100 on our scale), with only 11% in opposition. Compared to 1998, we can notice fundamental changes: at that time, only 46% of those interviewed 1 On a scale ranging from +100 (the best possible score) to-100 (the worst possible score). 8

9 expressed any optimism concerning the future development of Yugoslavia s economy, with almost an equal number not sharing their optimism (44%) What People Expect from the Government We have strong reason to believe that the optimism we encountered during the survey must be seen as a consequence of the change in government and of subsequent efforts to democratize the country. The Yugoslav population places its hopes in the new democratic government and dissociates itself from radical political ideas. As a result of the fall of the Miloševi regime, trust in public institutions and authorities has noticeably increased. As we look at the number of those who think that the government is capable of solving the country s economic problems within the next decade, we see that the percentage is twice as high as in The number of those who are afraid that the government will never be able to solve the country s economic problems has decreased fourfold over the past two years. People predict that the new government will act quickly and successfully: 19% believe the economic problems will be solved within two years, with 33% seeing three to five years as a realistic time frame. Only 19% expect recovery to take six to ten years. In 1998 the comparative figures were clearly lower (1 2 years: 6%; 3 5 years: 17%; 5 10 years: 12%). Due to the change in government, the number of pessimists has strongly decreased. Whereas 24% of the people interviewed in 1998 were of the opinion that it would take more than ten years to solve the country s economic problems, the current number is 14%. Two years ago, 23% did not believe the Miloševi regime could ever solve the country s economic problems, while in December 2000 a mere 5% expressed doubts as to the new government s economic capacity. The optimistic tendency is also visible in the decreasing number of people expressing uncertainty about future economic development. While 16% could not make up their mind in March 1998, this number decreased to 6% in December Assessment of Systems of Government by the Yugoslav People 5.1. Current Situation Almost two thirds of the Yugoslav population (63%) have a positive attitude about the current system of government with free elections and a multi-party system, though one should note that the degree of satisfaction is rather low. On a scale ranging from +100 to -100, 47% gave scores of between +1 and +49, with only 16% choosing to give higher scores (+50 to +100). 2 Some 19% have negative perceptions about the new system of government, and 4% of this group totally disapprove of it (-90 to -100). In this context, a retrospective view going back to 1998 seems especially interesting, because we can compare the political system under Slobodan Miloševi with the new democratic development under Vojislav Koštunica. Looking at the figures, we see that far more people accept the system of government in 2000 (with Koštunica) than in 1998 (with Miloševi). 2 Ranking on a scale reaching from (the best mark possible) to -100 (the most negative mark possible). 9

10 Two years ago, the system of government received positive scores from only 36% of all those interviewed, while 57% disapproved of it. As far as the future development of the political system is concerned, the people of Yugoslavia are very optimistic: 84% believe that the democratic system will develop positively within the next five years, with only a small minority (6%) failing to share this view. In 1998, the figures were not that clear at all: 50% thought that the system of government would move in a positive direction, while 37% feared the opposite Attitude towards the Former Communist Regime Almost two thirds of all those asked (64%) have a negative opinion regarding the former communist regime; within this group, 36% give the worst scores possible, though 26% still have a positive attitude towards the former system, of which 3% give the best scores possible. Compared to 1998, the degree of negativity has increased remarkably whereas 56% more or less sympathized with the communist system in 1998, only 40% showed disapproval. Not surprisingly, only 5% indicated that they would be strongly in favor of a return of the communist system, with 10% slightly favoring this idea. The vast majority strong opposes any return to the former system (11% somewhat, 75 strongly ). Within the last two years, the number of those supporting a return to communism has decreased by 10% Attitude towards Other Systems of Government Only 10% of those interviewed indicated they would be strongly or somewhat in favor of the idea that the army should govern the country, and 90% showed disapproval. There have been no significant changes since Scant support can also be seen in the call for a return to the monarchy: 7% were strongly in favor, 16% somewhat, 18% somewhat rejected this idea, and 59% are strongly opposed to it. The current figures generally coincide with those from Approval for a democratic system has become stronger since our first survey. Consider the following statement: It is better to get rid of parliament and elections and have a strong leader decide everything. In 1998, this was strongly welcomed by 14% of the people asked, while 21% were somewhat in favor. Two years later, far fewer favor the idea of a strong leader and 64% strongly disapprove and 13% somewhat of it. What is remarkable is that 11% continue to favor this radical view, showing that the change of opinion has taken place mainly within the group of those who somewhat supported this idea. 6. Basic Individual/Civil Rights What differences do people perceive between the communist and the democratic political system? In which areas can we see the biggest positive changes, do we note any regressive tendencies, or has the situation not really changed? In the survey, people were confronted with eight statements, mainly concerning such civilrights topics as freedom of speech, freedom of religion and freedom to travel. Due to last 10

11 year s political events, these statements provided additional opportunity for analysis. Not only was it possible to compare the democratic with the communist system, but also to examine possible changes in public opinion following the replacement of Slobodan Miloševi by Vojislav Koštunica. To start with, it needs to be pointed out that people think of the new democratic system in a more positive way as compared to the former system, in every respect. Let us further say that the degree of positive attitude towards democracy has also increased since the fall of Miloševi. In the following, all eight statements are listed separately. a) Everybody is free to say what he or she thinks. A total of 76% believe that since the end of the communist regime the situation regarding freedom of speech and intellectual freedom has improved (39% slightly and 37% strongly), with 19% unable to see any changes and 4% saying that the situation has slightly worsened (1% strongly ). During the rule of Slobodan Miloševi, we noticed a higher degree of polarization. Two years ago, 81% of the people interviewed believed that the situation had strongly (35%) or slightly (46%) improved since the end of communist Yugoslavia, with a total of 9% perceiving restrictions on freedom of speech and intellectual freedom to a slight or strong degree (5% as opposed to 4%). b) People can join any organization they want. In the opinion of 72% of those interviewed, the freedom to assemble has somewhat (41%) or greatly improved (32%) over former communist Yugoslavia, though 25% do not perceive any changes. Only 2% think the situation has somewhat worsened, and less than 1% think it has greatly worsened. As we compare the figures with those from our first survey in 1998, we see tendencies similar to the previous statement. On the one hand, people were more likely to believe that the situation regarding the freedom to assemble had improved (35% much improved and 45% somewhat improved ). On the other hand, there were also more people judging the situation in a more negative way (4% somewhat worse and 2% much worse ). c) People can travel and live wherever they want. In the current survey, 42% of the people asked think that the situation has slightly (14%) or strongly (29%) improved, while 35% think it is the same as under the communist system. For 12% of the people interviewed, freedom of movement has slightly worsened, and 11% noticed a major setback. Compared with 1998, we notice strong differences in public opinion. People then judged the situation in a much more negative way than they are doing now. 28% felt a slight worsening, 35% said the situation had got much worse compared to the communist system. d) Ordinary people can influence what the government does. In the current survey, 51% of people believe that opportunities to have a say in political matters are somewhat (15%) or much (36%) better when compared to the situation in socialist Yugoslavia; and 42% cannot see any changes. A total of 7% see a negative development (4% slightly negative and 3% strongly negative ). 11

12 Since 1998, public opinion has changed dramatically. Though people judge the situation in a more positive way as compared to communist times, the degree of consent was less than it is now. During Miloševi s rule, only 8% of those interviewed could see any strong improvement, while 28% said the situation had slightly improved. A total of 25% could not notice any positive development, and 12% indicated that the situation had somewhat worsened, with 13% seeing it as having greatly worsened. e) People can live without fear of unlawful arrest. Regarding this subject, 63% of the interviewees see positive developments (with 40% saying the situation is somewhat better and 23% saying it is much better); 28% do not notice any changes and 7% feel that personal safety vis-à-vis the police and unlawful detention has undergone a slight worsening, with 3% sharing this view emphatically. Similar to the previous statement, we see that people nowadays are more likely to believe that this basic right is protected under the new democratic regime than they did in Two years ago, only 9% felt that the situation had strongly improved compared to communist times, while 30% felt a slight improvement. On the other hand, about one quarter of those asked (26%) tended to fear that the danger of being arrested without cause during the rule of Slobodan Miloševi was far more eminent (11%) or slightly more eminent (15%) than under the communist regime. f) Each person can decide whether or not to take an interest in politics. Regarding this item, 60% of those interviewed think that the present political system is much (28%) or somewhat (32%) better in comparison with the former communist regime. Only a small minority sees a negative development (3% strongly, 1% somewhat ), with 36% failing to notice any changes. Compared to 1998, we see a slight decrease (by 8%) in the number of those who believe that the situation has improved. This decrease can be mainly attributed to the group who reported seeing a slight improvement in 1998 (42% in 1998, 32% in 2000). g) Everybody is treated fairly and equally by the government. In answers to this question, we were able to detect major changes in perception. In December 2000, a total of 52% believed that the likelihood of being treated fairly by the government had increased somewhat (40%) or a lot (12%) compared to communist times, with 8% reporting a slight worsening and 3% a strong. Regarding this point, only 28% of those interviewed in 1998 felt that the Miloševi regime was better than the communist regime (7% saying much better and 21% somewhat better ). A total of 31% argued that the situation had worsened somewhat (17%) or a great deal (14%) since the end of the communist regime. h) Everybody is free to decide whether or not to practice a religion. Since the end of communist rule, 63% say that freedom of religion has improved somewhat (24%) or a lot (39%). Not even one percent of the people interviewed thinks that the situation has worsened. In 1998, freedom of religion was still noted to a much stronger degree: 59% reported great improvements in their ability to practice their religion as opposed to communist times, with 27% reporting slight improvements. 12

13 7. Trust in Institutions 7.1. Level of Corruption and Accepting Bribes The overall trust in Yugoslavia s new democratic government is also reflected in the extent to which people consider public institutions and authorities to be susceptible to corruption. The first thing that needs to be pointed out is that there are still many people who think that the level of corruption is much higher (23%) or somewhat higher (15%) as compared to communist rule. For 31% of the people asked, nothing has changed since then. However, when comparing these figures with those from 1998 under the Miloševi regime we can observe an extraordinary increase in confidence. Two years ago, 61% of the people interviewed felt that the level of corruption and bribetaking had grown strongly since the end of communist rule, while 19% noticed a slight increase and 18% could not see any changes. At that time, almost nobody believed that corruption would decrease 3% noticed a slight decline, and 0.2% a strong decline. The current figures show a totally different tendency: 26% of the people asked see a slight decline, and 5% see a strong decline Trust in Public Institutions and Authorities To find out the degree to which the people of Serbia and Montenegro trust their public institutions and authorities, we asked people to rate their personal level of trust on a scale ranging from 1 to 7, with 1 expressing no trust and 7 expressing great trust. The results overall show a generally strong increase in confidence regarding nearly all the institutions mentioned. Especially remarkable are the changes in level of trust in the head of state. Among all the institutions represented in this survey, public trust in the office of the President is highest, followed by churches, the military and the Prime Minister. Two years before, the churches and the military were the institutions most trusted, while the President and the Prime Minister only received average scores. Since our first survey, trust in the media has strongly increased Trust in the President Change in the office of the President from Slobodan Miloševi to Vojislav Koštunica initiated a rapid increase in public confidence. Two years ago, 41% of those interviewed showed no trust in the office of the President, but by in December 2000, this percentage of distrust had sunk to 6% (a 1 on our scale). In 1998, only 13% showed great trust in Slobodan Miloševi, while the percentage of those who trust the new president Vojislav Koštunica is 42% (a 7 on the scale). The average point score on our scale rose from 3.1 to

14 Trust in the Prime Minister Once Zoran ii stepped in as Prime Minister, trust in this institution increased to a remarkable degree. Whereas 44% of those interviewed in 1998 did not show any trust at all in the office of the Prime Minister s (for a score of 7), the percentage has now lowered to around 12%. In December 2000, 11% showed great trust (as opposed to 7% in 1998). The average point score has risen from 2.7 to 4.1 over the past two years Trust in the Government We can see similar tendencies regarding people s trust in the Government. While 39% had no trust in the Government in 1998, the current percentage of extreme distrust has now lowered to around 11%. The number of those who trust their government totally has undergone only a small change (from 7% in 1998 to 5% in 2000), but it must be noted that the average score for trust has risen from 2.7 points to Trust in Parliament As we look at the development of the average score for trust in Parliament over the past two years, we notice an increase from 2.8 points to 3.6. Comparing the figures, it becomes clear how high mistrust in this institution had still been in 1998: 35% of the people interviewed admitted having absolutely no trust in their legislative body. Since then, however, this figure has fallen to 11% Trust in the Courts People s trust in the judiciary is an important indicator of the extent to which a democratic society has been established. As we take a look at the results of our current survey, we see that in the eyes of many people their level of trust in the judicial system is still rather low, though it has to be pointed out that there has been a slight increase in trust over the past two years (from 2.8 in 1998 to 3.2 in 2000, on average). One can notice the most remarkable changes within the group for those having strong doubts in the trustworthiness of the courts: from 1998 to December 2000, their number diminished from 33% to 19%. Altogether, it may be said that a slightly more positive mood is noticeable within the Yugoslav population, although one still encounters widespread skepticism. This is clear from the number of those who gave the judicial system the best scores possible only 2% chose to do so (as opposed to 5% in 1998) Trust in the Media In the course of last year s political events, trust in mass media (TV, radio, printed media) has undergone major changes. The number of those who show massive distrust of TV and radio decreased from 32% in 1998 to 13% in In the case of printed media, the percentage fell 14

15 as well, from 25% to 13%. The average score rose from 2.8 for TV and radio and 2.9 for printed media, to 3.6 points each Trust in the Police and the Military Traditionally, the level of confidence that the Yugoslav people have in the military is high. In 1998, the average score for trust was 4.1; in 2000, this figure was even higher, at 4.5. Of those interviewed in 2000, 19% feel great trust in the Yugoslav army (17% in 1998), a percentage only outperformed by people s trust in churches and in the President. Currently, only 7% of those interviewed place no trust in the Yugoslav armed forces, though two years ago this number was twice as high. As far as the police are concerned, they cannot match the above. The average score for confidence was at 3.1 and has undergone only minimal changes since our first survey in 1998 (when it was 3.0). Noteworthy, however, is that the number of those who reported extreme distrust in the police in 1998 fell from 33% to 21% in Also noticeable were decreasing figures within the group of those reporting a high level of confidence in the police force (7% in 1998, as opposed to 3% in 2000) Trust in Political Parties and Trade Unions In the eyes of the Yugoslav people, political parties and trade unions are ranked as the least trustworthy institutions within our listing. Although the scores for trust are higher than in 1998 (for trade unions, 2.8 in 1998 and 2.9 in 2000; for political parties, 2.5 in 1998 and 2.9 in 2000), their low ranking has remained essentially the same. Only very few people express great trust in political parties and trade unions (3% in 1998, 2% in 2000). The most significant changes can be noticed within the group of those who had been very distrustful of political parties in 1998: Here, a strongly decreasing tendency was apparent (from 43% in 1998 to 26% in 2000). To a lesser extent, the same applies to the trade unions as well: We can observe a decrease in distrust from 34% to 27% Trust in Civil Servants Compared to 1998 we can see an increase in the level of confidence in civil servants that can be regarded as a consequence of the decline in corruption and bribe-taking. The average point score for confidence has risen from 3.1 to 3.5. Half of those who were very distrustful of bureaucrats in 1998 still hold this view today (11% in 2000). In spite of this, it needs to be pointed out that the number of those who report great trust remains remarkably low (3%) Trust in Churches People s trust in churches is very high. One has to observe that the extremely positive attitude seen in 1998 has continued to increase. Compared to our first survey, the average point score for confidence has risen from 4.5 to 4.7, and 29% of those interviewed report great trust which constitutes an 8% increase. 15

16 8. Expectations and Fears What do people of Serbia and Montenegro expect from the future development of their country? Is there an overall consensus regarding the future of politics, the economy and society? In order to obtain detailed information on the wishes and expectations of the Yugoslav people, we asked the interviewees their opinion by means of several questions where they had to choose between two contrasting options The Government s Ability to Solve Problems The topic of the first group of question was people s confidence in the government s ability to carry out reforms: Do you think it will take years for the government to deal with the problems inherited from the communist regime, or do you feel the government is in a position to solve these problems right away, regardless of who caused them? The results show that people are rather inclined to agree with the latter. A total of 60% agrees with it (45% strongly, 15% somewhat ), and 41% fear that it will take years for the government to deal with the problems inherited from the Communists of which 27% strongly share this view. Since the first survey, the overall tendency has remained more or less the same. Additionally, at that time an overwhelming majority was convinced that the government should be capable of handling all its problems in a short period of time. As we look at the figures, we can observe that optimism in 1998 was even higher than it is today: 55% definitely agreed with the above statement, and 13% somewhat. This different assessment could be explained by the fact that people currently regard the overall economic situation in a more negative way than two years before Individual Threats: Rising Prices and Unemployment Yugoslavia s unsatisfactory economic situation was the issue here: What do people fear most, rising prices or potential unemployment? We wanted to find out which economic scenario was more likely to be perceived as a personal threat. In comparison with the previous survey, we could not detect any major change in opinion. For nearly two thirds of the people interviewed, rising prices constitute the worst threat for themselves and their family (48% definitely agreed, and 21% somewhat). In 1998, 44% agreed definitely with this opinion, and 24% somewhat. In December 2000, unemployment was seen as the worst threat to a total of 30% of those interviewed, out of which 20% expressed great fear. Two years before, a total of 32% shared that opinion (24% strongly, 8% somewhat) Pricing Policy by the State or Free-Market Economy? In this context, it is interesting to learn what people think of the following question: Would you prefer a wide range of goods to be available in shops, even if the prices might be much 16

17 higher, or would you prefer prices to be kept low by the state, even though it might often be that fewer goods are to be had? The results show that fewer and fewer people support the idea of state interference in pricing policy. Only a total of 27% support state intervention in pricing, with 12% of them totally agreeing with this kind of policy. Compared to 1998, the number of those approving has decreased by 13%. Of those interviewed, 72% prefer to be able to choose among a wide range of goods in the shops, even if they have to pay more. In 1998, only 60% shared this view. Of these, 19% expressed strong approval, to the effect that in two years time, the latter percentage has risen to 32% Egalitarianism versus Individual Achievement Personal income was the topic of the next question. We asked people which option they preferred: Should incomes be equalized so that no huge differences in income exist, or should individual achievement determine how much people earn? As we had already observed in our first survey, more and more people tend to support the latter opinion. A total of 65% think that high individual achievement should mean a higher income (48% definitely agree with this). In 1998, total approval was lower (58%). The number of those stating that people s incomes should be more equal has decreased by 8%. A total of 35% support this view, of which 20% express strong approval State Welfare versus Individual Responsibility With this question, we wanted to find out people s opinion concerning the future social orientation of their country. We asked, Should the individuals be responsible for their own welfare or should the state be responsible for everybody s economic security? As we had already observed in our previous survey, a large majority agreed with the latter opinion. Since 1998, overall agreement has increased: A total of 78% wants the state to take responsibility for its citizens, out of which 53% definitely agree. Compared to 1998, we notice an increase in agreement by 13%, which can mainly be attributed to the group of those who totally agreed with the above statement two years ago (41%) State Ownership versus Private Enterprise The question of state ownership or private enterprise was the issue of the next question: Which is the better way to run a business, state ownership or private enterprise? There have been no significant changes in public opinion since our first survey in March A majority of the people asked (56%) thinks that companies should be run by private employers. Compared to the previous survey, however, the score for agreement decreased slightly (by 2%); and support fell from 35% in 1998 to 28% in 2000, especially for the group of those strongly in favor of private industry. 17

18 A total of 43% say that state ownership is the best way to run an enterprise. Since 1998, the figures have remained the same Yugoslavia s Future Position in Europe The future orientation of Yugoslavia was the issue of the last question: Should Yugoslavia develop along the lines of the Western European countries, or should the country mainly focus on its own traditional values? On this point, we can see only minor changes. Almost two thirds of the Yugoslav population want to follow the Western European pattern (64% in 1998 and 65% in 2000). In this context, however, some changes have taken place, especially within the group of those strongly supporting the country s pro-european orientation (36% in 1998 and 40% in 2000). Of those interviewed in 2000, 35% think that national traditions and values should determine the future of their country (down from 36% in 1998). Within the group of those strongly in favor, one has to observe a slight decrease (from 23% in 1998 to 20% in 2000) Summary Summing up the results of all the choice questions, we could detect a strong orientation towards the types of opinion prevailing in Western Europe. Differences could mainly be observed in those issues concerning the future role of the state. A lot of people still prefer state ownership to private enterprise, and more and more people emphasize that the state should be responsible for everybody s economic security. In comparison with our first survey, the number of those agreeing that income should be dependent on individual achievement has increased. The majority of Yugoslavs wants their country to develop like the Western European countries. 9. Attitude towards the European Union and National Pride 9.1. Identification Due to last year s political changes in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and increasing attempts at integration into and growth in status within the European Union, people have had to redefine their own position in this multinational and constantly changing European society. Taking all these current developments into account, we wanted to pinpoint the concepts and social structures with which people most identify nowadays. Do people see themselves mainly as citizens of their native country or region, or can we rather observe a trend towards identification with the idea of a greater Europe? Or are people basically more attached to the microstructures of society, such as the local community or the family? In our survey, we asked people to state with which of the concepts mentioned above they would personally identify, both primarily and secondarily. The most significant changes have concern people s primary identification, while the score for secondary identification did not change significantly. 18

19 In 1998, a relative majority of those interviewed (38%) were most attached to their native country; and current observations are in keeping with this, though identification has decreased by 4% since then though 25% of those interviewed put their identification with their native country in second place. Identification with the communal level emerged in second place, with 29% feeling most attached to their local community (26% in 1998), and with 24% feeling a secondary identification with their city of residence. The concept of European citizenship has strengthened in the last two years: 17% see themselves primarily as Europeans, an increase of 7% since our first survey; 14% define themselves secondarily as Europeans. Identification with the region only emerges in fourth place, followed by identification with the family: 7% of those interviewed feel primarily attached to their region (with 16% feeling a secondary identification), and 6% find their primary point of reference within their family (with 6% feeling a secondary identification) Attitude towards Joining the European Union The vast majority of the Yugoslav population wants their country to join the European Union. The positive attitude we encountered in 1998 has become even stronger since then. More than 90% of the people interviewed are in favor of Yugoslavia becoming a member of the European Union. Within this group, 57% show strong support for this view, and 34% somewhat support it. The number of opponents is very low: 3% stand in strict opposition to joining the EU, and 7% somewhat oppose it. Compared to 1998, we see that the number of those strongly in favor has clearly increased (from 41% in 1998). Within the same period, the small percentage of those strictly opposing the idea has fallen by 1% National Pride Despite people s overwhelming support for Yugoslavia s membership in the EU and increasing identification with the concept of a wider Europe, national pride in Serbia and Montenegro still is at a very high level. We can even observe an increase in national pride. Of the people interviewed, 65% say that they are very proud to be a member of their nation, and 21% say they are rather proud. For 11%, the concept of national pride does not play an important role, and 3% do not feel at all proud to be a Yugoslav citizen. In comparison with our last survey, there are noticeable changes, especially within the number of those who feel very proud (from 60% in 1998). 19

20 9.4. Nationalism and Patriotism How can we analyze the high level of national pride we encountered in the course of our survey? Does it manifest itself in an aggressive nationalist way, or could we rather call it patriotic feeling? To gain insight into this topic, we asked people to make a general comparison of Yugoslavia with other countries. Do people see their native country in an idealized way, or can they make an objective assessment? Results show that a total of 43% agree with the opinion that Yugoslavia is as good or better than other countries in general: 17% strongly agree with this idea, 26% somewhat, and 24% rather or totally oppose that statement. Since 1998, only small changes in public opinion are noticeable though we can observe a slight increase (+2%) within the group of those who oppose that view. How do people generally assess their personal life in Yugoslavia? Do they feel content with the everyday conditions they encounter, or are there many things worth complaining in everyday life? Do people think that their life would have been better now if they had been born in some other country? Would they rather be a citizen of some other country at this point in time? Out of all the people asked, 54% say they are content to be a citizen of Yugoslavia, with 33% feeling very content. Some 14% would rather be a citizen of some other country, and 7% would definitely prefer to be a citizen of another country. There are 23% who neither agree nor disagree with this statement. Compared to 1998, the number of those who are unhappy has increased by 4%. A total of 32% agree with the statement that their life would be better if they had been born in some other country, and 15% strongly agree with that statement. In comparison with our first survey, we see an increase of 6%. Those who do not share this view constitute 16%, out of which 10% completely disagree. The social and political events of the last decade have had great impact on people s opinion regarding the quality of everyday life in Yugoslavia. Of all those interviewed, 36% totally agree with the statement, There are a lot of things I don t like about Yugoslavia, and 48% rather agree. Only a small minority of 4% does not share that view (3% disagree, and 1% strongly disagree ). Compared to our first survey, there have been no significant changes in public opinion Feelings of Closeness to Other Countries When we ask people their opinion on which country is closest to Yugoslavia in terms of lifestyle, customs and culture, the vast majority places Russia in first place, followed by Greece and Romania. Only a few of those interviewed felt any close tie between their native country and Hungary, and even fewer stated that Yugoslavia was very or somewhat close to Austria and Germany. Altogether, 68% of the people interviewed think that Russia is very or somewhat close to Yugoslavia in terms of lifestyle, customs and culture. In the case of Greece, 53% share this 20