Political public opinion of Montenegro
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1 Department For Empiric Researches Political public opinion of Montenegro Project supported by February Foundation Open Society Institute Montenegrin Office 1
2 SAMPLE Research conducted in period 09 18th February Standard CEDEM s twofold stratified sample with random selection of testees in final units applied. Projected sample: 1000 testees Implemented sample: 994 testees from 9 municipalities (Pljevlja, Berane, Bijelo Polje, Podgorica, Nikšic, Cetinje, HercegNovi, Bar and Ulcinj) Standard sample error in respect to demographic structure is
3 BASIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SAMPLE Gender structure of teestes Age structure of teestes Men years 37.5 Women years 40.4 TOTAL Over 55 years 21.6 No answer 0.5 TOTAL
4 BASIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SAMPLE Religion of interviewees Nationality of the interviewees Orthodox 74.4 Montenegrins 46.2 Islamic 18.5 Serbs 34.2 Catholics 3.2 Bosnians 3.5 Atheist 3.9 Albanians 4.8 TOTAL Muslims 8.9 Croats 1.2 Others 1.3 TOTAL
5 CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS Positions of the entire group of testees expressed by coefficients (K) Rank / Institution N K SD 1 Serbian Orthodox Church 806 3, Montenegrin Parliament 979 2, President of Montenegro 919 2, Montenegrin Government 923 2, Montenegrin Police 927 2, Montenegrin Orthodox Church 733 2, Montenegrin Judiciary 898 2, Political parties in Montenegro 894 2, N number of tesees who expressed their position; K Confidence coefficient; SD standard deviation; 5
6 CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS Ruling parties supporters Rank / Institution N K SD President of Montenegro 277 3,98 1,099 Montenegrin Government 279 3,79 1,181 Montenegrin Parliament 284 3,67 1,540 Montenegrin Orthodox Church 206 3,44 1,440 Montenegrin Police 277 3,41 1,268 Montenegrin Judiciary 261 3,06 1,323 Political parties in Montenegro 259 2,88 1,189 Serbian Orthodox Church 202 2,53 1,552 N number of tesees who expressed their position; K Confidence coefficient; SD standard deviation; 6
7 CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS Opposition parties supporters Rank / Institution N K SD Serbian Orthodox Church 343 3,86 1,486 Montenegrin Parliament 375 2,49 2,110 Montenegrin Police 361 2,02 1,109 President of Montenegro 357 2,01 1,128 Montenegrin Government 356 1,92 1,041 Montenegrin Judiciary 346 1,92 1,022 Political parties in Montenegro 352 1,90 0,934 Montenegrin Orthodox Church 308 1,80 1,276 N number of tesees who expressed their position; K Confidence coefficient; SD standard deviation; 7
8 CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS Swing voters and abstainers Rank / Institution N K SD Serbian Orthodox Church 261 3,13 1,716 Montenegrin Parliament 320 2,88 2,407 President of Montenegro 285 2,31 1,256 Montenegrin Police 289 2,15 1,204 Montenegrin Government 287 2,14 1,143 Montenegrin Orthodox Church 219 2,08 1,365 Montenegrin Judiciary 291 1,94 1,077 Political parties in Montenegro 283 1,81 0,974 N number of tesees who expressed their position; K Confidence coefficient; SD standard deviation; 8
9 CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS Trend June 06. August 06. February Serbian Orthodox Church M ontenegrin Parliament President of M ontenegro M ontenegrin Government M ontenegrin Police M ontenegrin Orthodox Church M ontenegrin Judiciary Political parties in M ontenegro 9
10 EVALUATION OF POLITICAL PARTIES PERFORMANCES IN THE PARLIAMENT Rank N K SD PZP / Movement for Change DPS / Democratic Party of Socialists SDP / Socialdemocratic Party SNS / Serbian People s Party Serbian Radicals NS / People s Party SNP / Socialist People s Party LPCG / Liberal Party of Montenegro DSS / Democratic Serbian Party NSS / People s Socialist Party DSJ / Party of Democratic Unity Bosnians Party DUA / Democratic Union of Albanians DSCG / Democratic Union in Montenegro HGI / Croatian Civic Initiative "Albanian Alternative" N number of tesees who expressed their position K Confidence coefficient SD standard deviation 10
11 EVALUATION OF POLITICAL PARTIES PERFORMANCES IN THE PARLIAMENT Ruling parties supporters Rank N K SD DPS 281 4,26 1,064 SDP 271 3,65 1,264 PZP 265 2,45 1,233 LPCG 253 2,37 1,187 DUA 238 1,84 1,134 Bosnians Party 248 1,78 1,070 HGI 232 1,76 1,047 DSCG 230 1,75 0,975 "Albanian Alternative" 233 1,65 0,982 SNP 259 1,46 0,807 SNS 254 1,39 0,801 NS 259 1,39 0,746 DSJ 244 1,33 0,664 NSS 251 1,31 0,671 DSS 253 1,29 0,655 Serbian Radicals 248 1,26 0,704 11
12 EVALUATION OF POLITICAL PARTIES PERFORMANCES IN THE PARLIAMENT Opposition parties supporters Rank N K SD PZP 349 3,09 1,399 SNS 355 2,93 1,524 Serbian Radicals 342 2,61 1,616 NS 347 2,44 1,318 SNP 347 2,42 1,383 DSS 344 2,31 1,303 NSS 326 2,06 1,221 DSJ 324 1,94 1,169 LPCG 338 1,73 1,184 DPS 351 1,70 1,056 SDP 347 1,61 1,053 Bosnians Party 327 1,50,979 DSCG 324 1,40,846 DUA 330 1,39,894 HGI 323 1,39,872 "Albanian Alternative" 330 1,34,862 12
13 EVALUATION OF POLITICAL PARTIES PERFORMANCES IN THE PARLIAMENT Swing voters and abstainers Rank N K SD PZP 255 2,36 1,281 DPS 262 1,96 1,169 SNS 246 1,94 1,272 SDP 257 1,81 1,074 NS 249 1,77 1,096 Serbian Radicals 239 1,74 1,202 SNP 246 1,72 1,060 DSS 245 1,71 1,056 LPCG 240 1,63 0,949 NSS 239 1,55 0,882 DSJ 229 1,47 0,837 DSCG 226 1,43 0,904 DUA 226 1,37 0,880 Bosnians Party 230 1,36 0,788 "Albanian Alternative" 220 1,27 0,742 HGI 220 1,26 0,665 13
14 SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF MONTENEGRO Very dissatisfied 17.6 Mostly dissatisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Mostly satisfied Very satisfied
15 SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF MONTENEGRO Satisfaction with the Government Electoral preference Very dissatisfied Mostly dissatisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Mostly satisfied Very satisfied Ruling parties supporters Opposition parties supporters Swing voters and abstainers X 2 = 256,106; p<
16 SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF MONTENEGRO Trend 50.0 June 06. September 06. February Very dissatisfied Mostly dissatisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Mostly satisfied Very satisfied 16
17 MINISTRIES REFORM CAPACITIES REGARDING EU INTEGRATIONS Ministry No capacities at all Little bit Positions Significant capacities Full capacity MINISTRY OF JUSTICE MINISTRY OF THE INTERIOR MINISTRY OF DEFENSE MINISTRY OF FINANCE FOREIGN AFFAIRS MINISTRY MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE MINISTRY OF MARITIME AND TRANSPORT MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE MINISTRY OF TOURISM AND PROTECTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT MINISTRY OF HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE MINISTRY OF CULTURE, SPORT, AND MEDIA MINISTRY FOR PROTECTION OF HUMAN AND MINORITIES RIGHTS
18 MINISTRIES REFORM CAPACITIES REGARDING EU INTEGRATIONS RANK Rank N K SD MINISTRY OF TOURISM AND PROTECTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT MINISTRY OF CULTURE, SPORT, AND MEDIA FOREIGN AFFAIRS MINISTRY MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MINISTRY OF FINANCE MINISTRY OF MARITIME AND TRANSPORT MINISTRY FOR PROTECTION OF HUMAN AND MINORITIES RIGHTS MINISTRY OF THE INTERIOR MINISTRY OF DEFENSE MINISTRY OF HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE MINISTRY OF JUSTICE ,919 18
19 CONFIDENCE IN POLITICIANS Entire group of testees Rating of the politician PO SD 1 Željko ŠTURANOVIĆ Nebojša MEDOJEVIĆ Milo ĐUKANOVIĆ Filip VUJANOVIĆ Andrija MANDIĆ Ranko KRIVOKAPIĆ Srđan MILIĆ Miodrag ŽIVKOVIĆ Predrag POPOVIĆ Ranko KADIĆ Zoran ŽIŽIĆ Emilo LABUDOVIĆ Ferhat DINOŠA Mehmet BARDHI Rafet HUSOVIĆ Vasilj SINIŠTAJ AS average score SD standard deviation 19
20 CONFIDENCE IN POLITICIANS Ruling parties supporters Rating of the politician PO SD Milo ĐUKANOVIĆ 4,53 0,995 Filip VUJANOVIĆ 4,13 1,041 Željko ŠTURANOVIĆ 4,04 1,083 Ranko KRIVOKAPIĆ 3,74 1,303 Nebojša MEDOJEVIĆ 2,47 1,275 Miodrag ŽIVKOVIĆ 2,37 1,231 Ferhat DINOŠA 2,28 1,349 Rafet HUSOVIĆ 1,82 1,019 Mehmet BARDHI 1,76 0,997 Srđan MILIĆ 1,73 0,980 Andrija MANDIĆ 1,68 1,053 Vasilj SINIŠTAJ 1,63 0,896 Predrag POPOVIĆ 1,52 0,878 Ranko KADIĆ Zoran ŽIŽIĆ Emilo LABUDOVIĆ 1,44 1,40 1,34 0,794 0,799 0,778 AS average score SD standard deviation 20
21 CONFIDENCE IN POLITICIANS Opposition parties supporters Rating of the politician PO SD Nebojša MEDOJEVIĆ 3,50 1,383 Andrija MANDIĆ 3,02 1,517 Željko ŠTURANOVIĆ 2,49 1,340 Predrag POPOVIĆ 2,48 1,274 Ranko KADIĆ 2,46 1,326 Srđan MILIĆ 2,44 1,315 Zoran ŽIŽIĆ 2,39 1,388 Emilo LABUDOVIĆ 2,34 1,411 Filip VUJANOVIĆ 2,14 1,244 Milo ĐUKANOVIĆ 1,95 1,320 Miodrag ŽIVKOVIĆ 1,81 1,149 Ranko KRIVOKAPIĆ 1,55 1,038 Ferhat DINOŠA 1,53 1,023 Mehmet BARDHI Rafet HUSOVIĆ 1,51 1,32 0,923 0,775 AS average score SD standard deviation Vasilj SINIŠTAJ 1,29 0,716 21
22 CONFIDENCE IN POLITICIANS Swing voters and abstainers Rating of the politician PO SD Nebojša MEDOJEVIĆ 2,63 1,423 Željko ŠTURANOVIĆ 2,58 1,337 Filip VUJANOVIĆ 2,37 1,295 Milo ĐUKANOVIĆ 2,35 1,465 Andrija MANDIĆ 2,05 1,233 Ranko KRIVOKAPIĆ 1,88 1,173 Miodrag ŽIVKOVIĆ 1,84 1,089 Srđan MILIĆ 1,77 1,057 Emilo LABUDOVIĆ 1,74 1,236 Ranko KADIĆ 1,72 1,090 Predrag POPOVIĆ 1,72 1,054 Zoran ŽIŽIĆ 1,65 1,040 Ferhat DINOŠA 1,58 1,078 Mehmet BARDHI Rafet HUSOVIĆ Vasilj SINIŠTAJ 1,41 1,30 1,18 0,869 0,798 0,547 AS average score SD standard deviation 22
23 WILL PARLIAMENTARY PARTIES REACH AN AGREEMENT ON NEW MONTENEGRIN CONSTITUTION? No, I m sure they won t 14.7 Yes, I m sure they will 16.0 I don t believe 18.3 I believe they will
24 WILL PARLIAMENTARY PARTIES REACH AN AGREEMENT ON NEW MONTENEGRIN CONSTITUTION? Position () Electoral preference Yes, I m sure they will I believe they will I don t believe No, I m sure they won t Ruling parties supporters Opposition parties supporters Swing voters and abstainers X 2 = ; p<
25 ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DPS 24.0 SDP 3.1 PzP 15.8 SNS 7.5 SNP Serbian Radicals Other parties Swing voters and abstainers
26 CONFIDENCE IN TVs TV CG 26.3 TV ELMAG 10.8 TV MONTENA 3.6 TV MBC 2.3 TV PINK 16.2 TV IN 27.0 RTS 1.4 Other TV's
27 CONFIDENCE IN TVs TREND TV stations Jan. 05. May 05. Sept. 05. Dec. 05. Jun 06. Sept. 06. Feb 07. TV CG TV ELMAG TV MONTENA TV MBC TV PINK TV IN ATLAS TV 2.3 RTS Other TV s N = 722 N = 765 N = 698 N = 737 N = 701 N = 745 N =
28 CONFIDENCE IN TVs IN PODGORICA TREND TV stations Jan. 05. May 05. Sept. 05. Dec. 05. Jun 06. Sept. 06. Feb. 07. TV CG TV ELMAG TV MONTENA TV MBC TV PINK TV IN ATLAS TV 2.6 RTS Other TV s N = 237 N = 249 N = 222 N = 229 N = 190 N = 208 N =
29 CONFIDENCE IN RADIO TREND Radio stations Jan. 05. May 05. Sept. 05. Dec. 05. Jun 06. Sept. 06. Feb. 07. Radio Crne Gore Radio Elmag Radio D Antena M Radio Montena Radio Svetigora Radio Free Europe Local radio stations Other radio stations N = 577 N = 571 N = 542 N = 580 N = 512 N = 546 N =
30 CONFIDENCE IN RADIO PODGORICA TREND Radio stations Jan. 05. May 05. Sept. 05. Dec. 05. June 06. Sept. 06. Feb. 07. Radio Crne Gore Radio Elmag Radio D Antena M Radio Montena Radio Svetigora Radio Free Europe Local radio stations Other radio stations N = 186 N = 191 N = 168 N = 178 N = 151 N = 147 N =
31 CONFIDENCE IN DAILY NEWSPAPERS TREND Dailies Jan. 05. May 05. Sept. 05. Dec. 05. June 06. Sept. 06. Feb. 07. POBJEDA VIJESTI DAN REPUBLIKA POLITIKA VEČERNJE NOVOSTI BLIC OTHER DAILIES N = 656 N = 704 N = 677 N = 666 N = 640 N = 693 N =
32 MEMBERSHIP IN EUROPEAN UNION YES 74.0 Doesn t have opinion on that 17.6 NO
33 MEMBERSHIP IN NATO Doesn t have opinion on that 28.8 NO 34.6 YES
34 COOPERATION WITH THE HAGUE TRIBUNAL YES 45.3 Doesn t have opinion on that 22.1 NO
35 MONTENEGRIN ALLIES IN AREA OF FOREIGN POLICY Positions Absolutely not Little bit Yes, significantly Absolutely EU USA RUSSIA SERBIA NOTICE: 20.5 of interviewees thinks that Montenegro shouldn t rely on nobody especially in area of foreign politics 35
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