Armenian National Study

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1 Armenian National Study January 0, 008 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization Armenian Sociological Association with funding from the United States Agency for International Development

2 METHODOLOGY This national representative survey was conducted on January 0, 00, by the Armenian Sociological Association (ASA) for Baltic Surveys/Gallup on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The sample consisted of,00 Armenian residents over the age of 8 and eligible to vote and is representative of the general population by age, gender, education and religion. The sample design was a multi-stage random sample. Stage One: Break country into official administrative regions. Stage Two: Select clusters of sampling points based on settlement population (large, medium, small towns and villages). One sample point = approximately one percent of survey population (0- surveys). Sampling points in each region were selected based on the percentage of population living in the various levels of settlement in that same region. Respondents were selected by the random route method, using the next birthday rule to select a respondent from within a household. Data is collected through face-to-face interviews with the respondents. Poll was conducted nationwide, including the capital and all major regional centers. The margin of error does not exceed three percent. Response rate was percent. IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

3 SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

4 Gender Male % Female % 0+ % Age groups 8-9 % 0-9 % IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

5 Religion Other % Armenian Apostolic 98% Once a month % Attendance of religious service Once a week % A few times a week % Every day % Never 8% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008 A few times per year 0%

6 Sector of Employment Don't work 8% State % Private 8% Member of nongovernmental organization % Membership in Organizations None 9% Member of a party % IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

7 Capital % Type of settlement Rural % Towns 9% Yerevan % Regions West-Center 9% South % North 0% East 8% IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

8 MOOD OF THE COUNTRY IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008 8

9 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Armenia are going in the right direction or the wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Don't know, no answer Jan Dec 00 0 Oct Jul Mar 00 0 Nov Aug 00 May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008 9

10 Over the last three months, the economic situation in Armenia has? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer Jan Dec Oct 00 9 Jul Mar Nov 00 0 Aug 00 9 May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008 0

11 Over the last three months, the financial situation of your household has? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer Jan Dec 00 9 Oct Jul Mar Nov Aug 00 0 May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

12 How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Armenia? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied DK/NA Jan Dec 00 Oct 00 Jul 00 Mar Nov Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

13 Do you believe that things will get better in Armenia in a short time, or will it take a long time for things to improve in the country? Short time Long time Not sure/refused Jan 008 Oct 00 8 Jul 00 Mar 00 Nov Aug 00 8 May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

14 How would you evaluate the prevailing mood of the Armenian population? No answer Total disbelief in any improvement Insecurity, fear for future Apathy Not much hope for the future Hope that the future will be somewhat better Jan 008 Oct 00 Jul 00 Mar 00 Nov 00 Aug 00 May 00 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008 Belief that the future will be definitely better

15 Over the past year, has your attitude toward the way things are developing in the country become more optimistic, more pessimistic, or remained the same? Optimism Neutral Pessimism Jan 008 Oct 00 0 Jul 00 0 Mar 00 8 Nov 00 9 Aug 00 0 May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

16 Over the last year, your attitude towards the way things are developing in Armenia has become? DK/NA More pessimistic Stayed the same More optimistic 0 Jan 008 Oct 00 Jul 00 Mar 00 Nov 00 Aug 00 May 00 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

17 ISSUES IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

18 What are the main problems that Armenia is facing at the moment? Unemployment Socio-economic situation Problem of Nagorno Karabakh* Development of the economy, industry Corruption Recognition of genocide Domestic policy, elections Migration Poor implementation of laws Foreign policy Educational and cultural issues Slow development of democracy Military and peace issues Transport, roads Poor health care Turkish blockade Ecology Other DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January First mention All mentions * Between Armenia and Azerbaijan engaged in military conflict for possession of this disputed territory 8

19 What are three main problems your town/village is facing at the moment? Unemployment 0 Housing, communal services Transport, road conditions Sanitation 9 Development of economy / industry / agriculture Creation of places for entertainment, leisure Low salaries, pensions, high prices Illegal construction Ecology Corruption Education, religion, culture, nation, values First mention Migration All mentions Poor health care Poverty, social inequality Other DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008 9

20 What are the three most important problems for you and your household members? Socio-economic situation 0 Unemployment 8 Housing, communal services Education, health care Financial problems, taxes, insurance Decisions of communal problems Migration Peace Other First mention All mentions No problems DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008 0

21 Thinking about the current situation and future of your country, what are the three things that you are most afraid of? Uncertainty for the future Problem of Nagorno Karabakh War / security Socio-economic situation Unemployment Migration Elections Slow economic/agricultural development Bad relations with other countries Corruption Lack of recognition of the genocide National calamities, epidemics Not implementing laws Human indifference Other DK/NA First mention All mentions 9 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

22 Do you think it is acceptable for some groups to use the following methods of protest? Acceptable Not acceptable No opinion Legal demonstrations 0 Legal strikes Collecting signatures for petition, letter Boycott 0 Demonstrations without permission Strikes without permission Occupation of buildings or enterprises 9 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

23 POLITICS IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

24 What should the Armenian government accomplish first to attract the support of the majority of the Armenian population? Create jobs Fulfill promises Increase salaries, pensions Fight corruption Develop economy Improve living conditions Implement laws Stabilize prices, cut taxes Return Soviet-era deposits Increase democratic reforms Solve the problem of Nagorno Karabakh Reconstruct apartments Improve the educational system Carry out fair elections Slow migration Improve health care Other DK/NA First mention All mentions 9 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

25 How much interest do you have in politics? Low interest Medium interest High interest DK/NA Jan Dec 00 Oct Jul Mar 00 0 Nov 00 Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

26 Do you plan on voting in the next presidential election? Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no Have not decided yet DK/NA Jan Dec 00 Jul 00 8 Oct IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

27 What were the major mistakes and failures of the Armenian authorities over the last year? Did not prevent inflation Did not fight enough against corruption 8 Failed to address economic/business issues Sale of important objects 8 Lack of attention to the people Falsified the referendum Ignored laws First mention Poor foreign and internal policy All mentioned Degradation of education, culture, national values Not solving the conflict of Nagorno Karabakh Unemployment Failure to address the genocide All actions were mistakes or failures Other DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

28 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008 8

29 How would you evaluate the current state of relations between Armenia and? Good Bad Neither good nor bad DK/NA Russia 98 European Union 8 Iran 8 USA 8 Georgia 0 Turkey 90 Azerbaijan IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008 9

30 Which countries are the most important partners for Armenia? Which comprises the greatest political and economic threat? 9 9 Partners Threats Russia France Iran European Union Georgia USA Turkey Azerbaijan None DK/NA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008 0

31 How important is it for Armenia to solve the problems related to Nagorno Karabakh in the near future? Very important Rather important Not very important Not at all important DK / NA Jan 008 Oct 00 9 Jul 00 Mar Nov 00 Aug May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

32 Do you think that a peaceful settlement on Nagorno Karabakh can be reached with Azerbaijan without military force being used? Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA Jan 008 Oct 00 Jul 00 Mar 00 Nov 00 0 Aug 00 8 May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

33 Should the government of Armenia agree to open the border with Turkey even if the Turkish government does not recognize the genocide? Should open the border regardless Should not open the border DK/NA Jan Oct 00 9 Jul 00 Mar 00 Nov 00 0 Aug 00 9 May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

34 In your opinion, should Armenia in the future? Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA Join NATO 8 Join European Union Remain a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

35 INSTITUTIONS IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

36 What is your opinion about the work of each of these institutions? Favorable Unfavorable No opinion European Union 8 Commonwealth of Independent States 8 Church 8 United Nations 80 Army 0 Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe 8 8 Armenian media NATO 8 Educational system President's office 8 8 Central bank 8 Government (Cabinet of Ministers) Armenian Parliament Police Political parties IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

37 SITUATION OF SOCIAL GROUPS IN ARMENIA IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

38 Are the needs of the following social groups considered in Armenia? Considered Partially Not considered at all DK/NA Youth 0 Elderly 9 8 Women Disabled War veterans 8 Refugees 0 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008 8

39 What is the prevailing attitude of the Armenian population towards disabled persons in Armenia? Very positive Rather positive Rather negative Very negative DK/NA Jan 008 Oct 00 Jul 00 9 Mar IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008 9

40 In your opinion, do disabled people in Armenia have adequate access to social services? DK/NA The majority have no adequate access to social services Jan 008 Oct 00 Jul 00 8 Mar 00 Only some services are accessible The majority of social services are accessible IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008 0

41 Who should be responsible for solving the problems of the disabled and caring for their needs? Government of Armenia Family members, relatives Nongovernmental organizations Local government Jan 008 Oct 00 Jul 00 Mar 00 Political parties Other IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

42 Which of the following take care of the needs and problems of disabled people in Armenia? Yes No DK/NA Family members, relatives 90 Nongovernmental organizations 8 9 Government of Armenia 9 Political parties Local government IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

43 Which institutions, organizations, or nongovernmental organizations care about the needs and problems of disabled people in Armenia? Armenian Red Cross Society Ministry of Social Welfare - Paros 9 Pyunic organization for the disabled Armenian Assistance Foundation Bridge of Hope Prosperous Armenia Party United Nations Lus Astgh Tigran Karapetyan Charity Foundation Caritas Government of Armenia World Vision Other DK/NA 9 0 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

44 Do disabled people in Armenia have adequate opportunities for active participation in political life? They have adequate opportunity They have some opportunity They have no opportunities DK/NA Jan Oct 00 8 Jul 00 0 Mar IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

45 In your opinion, do disabled members of society in Armenia face challenges in finding employment opportunities? 00 DK/NA They do not have difficulties 0 They have some difficulties 0 They have major difficulties 0 Jan 008 Oct 00 Jul 00 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

46 In your opinion, do people who use wheelchairs have adequate access to public places? 00 DK/NA They do not have adequate access in the majority of places 0 They have access only in some places 0 0 They have adequate access in a majority of places 0 8 Jan 008 Oct 00 Jul 00 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

47 Do disabled members of society face challenges in seeking higher education? DK/NA 0 They do not have difficulties 0 They have some difficulties 0 They have major difficulties 0 Jan 008 Oct 00 Jul 00 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

48 HEROES OF OUR TIMES IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008 8

49 Of prominent living Armenians and characters from Armenian history and folk culture, who is most suitable to be a national hero or leader in the present? 0 8 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January Vazgen Sargsyan Grigor Narekaci Karen Demirchyan Andranik Tigran Metz Garegin Njdeh Vardan Mamikonyan Monte Charles Asnavour Drastamat "Dro" Kanayan Robert Kocharyan Davit Bek Gevork Chaust Hovanes Tumanyan Serge Sargsyan Israel Ori Kirk Krkoryan Marshal Baghramyan Viktor Hambarzumyan Andranik Margaryan Other DK/NA

50 SOURCES OF INFORMATION IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008 0

51 Which of these sources do you use to obtain political information? TV - news, programs Articles in newspapers Relatives, friends Radio - news, programs Meetings with politicians Colleagues at work Articles in magazines Billboards, stands in the streets Internet Leaflets, and other free information by post IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008 Jan 008 Dec 00 Oct

52 How much influence do each of the following forms of election campaigning have on you during a political campaign? Great influence Some influence Not much influence No influence at all DK/NA Meetings with politicians 9 9 Meetings with/opinions of respected people 8 TV ads 0 9 Newspaper articles about candidates 9 8 Paid media for the candidate or party 9 9 Home visits from the party or candidate 9 Personal letters to you from the candidate 9 0 Telephone calls from the political party or candidate 9 Leaflets Radio ads 0 8 Billboards 9 Slogans, signs on public transportation 0 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

53 In your opinion, are people in Armenia afraid to openly express their political views? Majority are afraid Many are afraid Some are afraid Nobody is afraid DK/NA Jan 008 Dec Oct 00 8 Jul 00 0 Mar 00 8 Nov 00 8 Aug 00 May IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

54 Do you believe that the 00 parliamentary elections were free and fair? Free and fair Not free and fair No opinion Jan Dec 00 Oct 00 Jul IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

55 Do you think that the Armenian government is implementing anti-fraud measures for the presidential elections and that they will indeed be free and fair? Yes, it is implementing measures and there will be improvement No, it is not sincere and there will not be improvement DK/NA Jan Dec 00 8 Oct 00 Jul IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 008

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