A Doctorial Dissertation. Demographic Transition in Asia

Transcription

1 A Doctorial Dissertation Demographic Transition in Asia Comparative Study of Fertility Transition among South-East Asia, South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia Submitted to The Graduate School of International Studies Maiji Gakuin University Kusumoto, Osamu

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8 Abstract Demographic Transition in Asia Comparative study of fertility transition among South-East Asia, South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia by Kusumoto, Osamu Theme setting; Almost all the studies on demographic transition have been analyzed within the context of economics and public health. This doctorial dissertation analyzes the patterns of demographic transition with emphasis on fertility transition, based on field studies that I conducted in 11 Asian countries with the aim of presenting a new framework of demographic transition. A key concept of this analysis is to perceive fertility transition as changes in action. Looking at patterns of fertility as changes in action makes it possible to conceive the patterns as changes in significance of these patterns and conditions that sustain such significance. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze and define these factors in demographic transition with focus on fertility transition. Analyses: This thesis analyzes 11 Asian countries by dividing them into four categories based on the progress of demographic transition. Progress of demographic transition is indicated by Demographic Transition Index (DTI). DTI consists of fertility transition and mortality transition with both contributing equally to the outcome. If DTI is 0, it means that there is no progress in demographic transition. If DTI is 1, it means that demographic transition has been completed. I herewith sort the 11 countries into the categories of Low, Medium, NIS and High. Low is a category for countries where demographic transition is less developed (DTI less than 0.5); countries in Medium category has somewhat developed demographic transition (DTI 0.5~0.8); NIS is a category for former Soviet Union countries and includes Mongolia (DTI 0.76~0.84); demographic transition is almost complete in countries categorized under High (DTI in excess of 0.85). Laos, Cambodia and Pakistan belong to the Low category. Countries in Medium category include Myanmar, India and the Philippines. NIS countries consist of Mongolia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. High countries are Vietnam and Iran. Obstacles to demographic transition differ completely between Laos/Cambodia and Pakistan. According to an analysis of questionnaire survey in these countries, obstacles to demographic transition that Laos and Cambodia face are mainly caused by lack of development in social and public health conditions. The questionnaire surveys on Lao and Cambodian people reveal iii

9 no other conspicuous reason. Countermeasures needed for Laos and Cambodia are relatively clear under these conditions. It will be useful to adopt practical measures for social development and improvement of public health conditions by increasing literacy/school enrollment rate and by supplying family planning commodities and public health related commodities. On the other hand, major obstacles to demographic transition in Pakistan are related to religious and traditional values. Thus, practical countermeasures aimed at social development and improvement of public health are not only difficult to apply but also less effective as the form of religious relief in Pakistan does not mean relief in the society. For instance, Sunni Islam does not follow the interpretation of Al Azhar University in Egypt and adhere to traditional interpretation. Major obstacles preventing countries under Medium category, which are less developed in demographic transition process, from further development of demographic transition are military administration, social disparities and rigid social class system. In this category, we can see a distinctive contrast between Myanmar and the Philippines. Myanmar has been undergoing a fertility transition without any national policy or international assistance. People of Myanmar have been accepting family planning voluntarily, which indicates that people in Myanmar are very practical-minded when it comes to modern concepts. On the other hand, the driving force of demographic transition in the Philippines is foreign aid the country is unable to implement population policies in the absence of such assistance. Religion and social structure are the reasons behind this phenomenon. The majority of people in the Philippines are Catholic, and Catholic is the only world religion that does not allow family planning with the exception of the rhythm method. Invisible social strata are another obstacle to demographic transition in this country. Their social values include exocentric character, resulting in lack of substantial rights for interpretation of their religion for their life. Rationality will not function in such society where people's efforts do not yield good results. Without these rational reflections, people will not make efforts as the means of modern rationality. This is a trauma of colonial domination that is still affecting their society as built-in obstacles. Thus, the progress in demographic transition seen in the Philippines is mainly due to improvement of mortality transition instead of fertility transition. It was improved by public health conditions and social development, not by changes in people's values or consciousness. India its social structure. Their social class based on the caste system is a major obstacle to social changes. The Indian Government, however, has been making large investments in education and social development, resulting in unexpected changes in the Indian society. A rapid development of literacy rate and school enrolment rate has changed people's concept of the world. Investment for the education means that many of the Indians are going to understand English and that they will have access to information from around the world available in English with the development of IT. The way Indian people view the world is starting to change under these circumstances. In the past, Indian concept of the world was the concept of the world itself which was constrained by the cast system and legitimized by salvation through religion. However, this traditional world view is now iv

10 turning into a subordinate way of looking at the world NIS countries such as Mongolia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have achieved a high level of social development under the Soviet regime. They then experienced economic transition from planed economy to market economy during which they faced severe economic difficulties. As a result, people chose to postpone their delivery and the birth rate dropped. It was a very rational change under economic difficulties. However, these changes cannot be explained by the traditional economical demographic transition theory which explains that economic progress causes a demographic transition. I categorized Vietnam and Iran under the High category which means that demographic transition process is almost complete in these countries. These two countries are characterized as having strong national population policies. So far, we can categorize both countries as typical cases of modern demographic transition. But their population policies are completely different. Population policy in Vietnam functioned effectively by achieving high human development during the socialist government and by incorporating East Asian characters such as Confucianism and Mahayana Buddhism. In contrast, Iran's population policies were modified due to changes in hermeneutics of al-quran in Shiite of Islam, made by Islamic great jurist (Vali-e-Faqih) late Ruh Allah Khomeyn. These changes were reflected directly to government policies and resulted in dramatic changes of fertility and mortality transition in Iran. Religious factors generally work as obstacles to demographic transition, making the Iranian experience of rapid demographic transition all the more surprising. Conclusion; International organizations tended to apply same strategies to population programmes when offering assistance to developing countries. This thesis shows that different reasons exist behind obstacles to demographic transition and demonstrates the need for different approaches. Comparative studies in the field of demographic transition cannot be easily found. Solid methodology for analyzing demographic transition itself is therefore not available. The thesis portrays the mind-set of peoples in respective countries including their religious salvation and introduces the methods of their analysis. The analysis in this thesis demonstrates that economic-demographic transition theory cannot be applied to all forms of demographic transition by reviewing a number of exceptional cases and argues that economic development is not the direct cause of demographic transition. This argument produces counter evidence against evolutional demographic transition theories and adoption theory including the argument by Dr. Joel Cohen. Traditional economic-demographic transition theories need to be solved in a broader framework based on changes in the social conditions, values and people s action. v

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16 ...i Abstract...iii...vii DTI GDP DTI xi

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18 Shiekhupura DTI xiii

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20 ( ) DTI xv

21 NIS DTI (DTI 0.86) xvi

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