MEETING THE NEED FOR PERSONAL MOBILITY. A. World and regional population growth and distribution

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1 30 II. MEETING THE NEED FOR PERSONAL MOBILITY A. World and regional population growth and distribution The world population grew at an annual rate of 1.4 per cent between 1990 and This is slightly slower than the annual growth of 1.7 for the previous ten years. In 2003, the total world population reached 6.3 billion people. This represents an increase of nearly 24 per cent since 1990, or an annual average increase of 93 million people. The growth rate of the world population is expected to continue to decline in the coming years, with world population expected to reach 7.8 billion in 2025 (table II.1). Table II.1. Estimates of population , and population growth : world and ESCAP region Population Annual compound growth rate [millions] [percentage] Region ESCAP 3,887 4, World 6,300 7, ESCAP (percentage of world total) Sources: ESCAP, Economic and Social Survey of and the Pacific 2001 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.01.II.F.18). Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, and World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision. The total population of the ESCAP region reached 3,887 million in mid-2003, accounting for approximately 62 per cent of the world population (over 6.3 billion at the beginning of ), up from 59 per cent in The share of population in the ESCAP region in the world total is expected to decline to 60 per cent by 2025 (table II.1). By mid-2002, the exponential annual growth rate of the ESCAP region was 1.2 per cent (table II.2). Of the total population in the ESCAP region in 2000, 40 per cent lived in South and South- West, followed by 36 per cent in East and North-East, 14 per cent in South-East, 6 per cent in North and Central, 4 per cent in developed economies, and 0.3 per cent in the Pacific island economies (figure II.1). There is considerable variation in the rate of population growth within the various subregions of ESCAP. East and North-East had an annual growth rate of 0.8 per cent, South-East 1.4 per cent, South and South-West 1.7 per cent, the Pacific 1.4 per cent, and North and Central had a negative growth rate of 0.2 per cent. By 2025, South and South-West is expected to have increased its population share by about 4 percentage points at the expense of all the ESCAP subregions except South-East and the Pacific island economies (figure II.1). 33 Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, and World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision.

2 31 Table II.2. Population indicators in the -Pacific region 2002 Country or area and region Mid-2002 Population Annual Growth Rate a (thousands) (percentage) ESCAP region 3,840, EAST AND NORTH-EAST ASIA 1,500, China 1,299, Democratic People's Republic of Korea 22, Hong Kong, China 6, Japan 127, Macao, China Mongolia 2, Republic of Korea 48, SOUTH-EAST ASIA 538, Brunei Darussalam Cambodia 13, Indonesia 217, Lao People's Democratic Republic 5, Malaysia 24, Myanmar 50, Philippines 78, Singapore 4, Thailand 63, Viet Nam 80, SOUTH AND SOUTH-WEST ASIA 1,550, Afghanistan 23, Bangladesh 143, Bhutan 2, India 1,051, Islamic Republic of Iran 69, Maldives Nepal 24, Pakistan 149, Sri Lanka 18, Turkey 68, NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA 218, Armenia 3, Azerbaijan 8, Georgia 5, Kazakhstan 15, Kyrgyzstan 5, Russian Federation 143, Tajikistan 6, Turkmenistan 4, Uzbekistan 25, PACIFIC 31, American Samoa Australia 19, Cook Islands Fiji French Polynesia Guam Kiribati

3 32 Country or area and region Mid-2002 Population Annual Growth Rate a (thousands) (percentage) Marshall Islands Micronesia (Federated States of) Nauru New Caledonia New Zealand 3, Niue Northern Mariana Islands Palau Papua New Guinea 5, Samoa Solomon Islands Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Source: 2002 ESCAP Population Data Sheet. a Exponential growth rate. The rate takes into account international migration, and thus may not equal the rate of natural increase. Figure II.1. Population shares of various subregions of ESCAP, 2002 and North and Central 5.7% Pacific Island economies 0.3% Developed ESCAP economies 3.9% Pacific Island economies 0.3% North and Central 4.9% Developed ESCAP economies 3.2% East and North-East 35.8% South and South-West 40.4% East and North-East 33.4% South and South-West 43.8% South-East 14.0% South-East 14.5% Source: ESCAP, Economic and Social Survey of and the Pacific 2001 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.01.II.F.18), and 2002 ESCAP Population Data Sheet.

4 33 B. Trends in urbanization In 1960, the ESCAP region was largely rural, with one in five people living in urban areas. By 1980 that figure was one in four, and by 2000 it was one in three. This increasing urbanization is part of a global trend that is set to continue for the foreseeable future. During the period it is estimated that the world s urban population will grow at an average annual rate of 1.8 per cent, nearly double the rate expected for the total world population (1.0 per cent per annum). At this rate the world s urban population will double in 38 years 34. By 2025 it is expected that half of the population of the developing economies in the ESCAP region will be living in urban areas (table II.3). The developed economies of the region are already predominantly urban and, although urbanization is expected to continue to increase, it will do so at a slower rate than that of the rest of the region. Table II.3. Estimates of urban population, level of urbanization and rate of growth of the urban population in selected economies of the ESCAP region, Region Urban population [millions] Level of Urbanization [percentage] Annual average growth of urban population South and South-West South-East East and North-East Pacific island economies North and Central Developed economies in the ESCAP region ESCAP 1,415 2, World 2,845 4, Source: ESCAP, Economic and Social Survey of and the Pacific 2001 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.01.II.F.18). As a consequence, while between 2000 and 2025 the total population of the ESCAP region will increase by 966 million, the urban population will increase by 977 million. This implies that nearly all of the population increase that takes place in the region will be absorbed by the urban areas, with population in the rural areas remaining more or less at the current level. Thereafter, the rural population of the developing economies is expected to decrease, a similar development to that of the developed economies some decades ago. There are large differences in the levels of urbanization among the countries in the region. Differences in the definition of urban areas also make comparisons difficult, as do concentrations of populations outside the urban boundaries but functionally linked to the latter, and circular migration between villages and cities. For example, in 1990 Beijing, China, there were 2.3 million people in the 87 sq km of inner city and 5.4 million in the 158 sq km of core city. 35 The population of inner city and inner suburban districts was 6.3 million, and that of inner city, inner and outer suburban districts, and inner and outer counties was 10.8 million (for most countries, the last definition is used). Estimates of the world s urban population would change significantly if China, India, and a few other populous 34 United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 1999 Revision (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.01.XIII.11). 35 World Bank, World Development Indicators.

5 34 nations were to change their definition of urban centres. According to State Statistical Bureau of China, by the end of 1996 urban residents accounted for about 43 per cent of China s population, while in 1994 only 20 per cent of the population was considered urban. Besides the continuous migration of people from rural to urban areas, one of the main reasons for this shift was the rapid growth in the hundreds of towns reclassified as cities in recent years. Because the estimates in the table are based on national definitions of what constitutes a city or metropolitan area, cross country comparisons should be made with caution. Among developing economies, the highest level of urbanization can be found in North and Central with 67.3 per cent, followed by South-East with 37.2 per cent, East and North-East with 34.7 per cent, South and South-West with 32.1 per cent and finally the Pacific island economies with 26.6 per cent of the population living in urban areas. Between now and 2025, the level of urbanization will increase at more or less the same rate in all the subregions except North and Central, where the increase will be less rapid owing to the existing large urban population. The existence of a strong positive relationship between overall and urban population growth suggests that a reduction in overall population growth will have a significant effect in reducing urban population growth. A prominent feature of developing countries has been the concentration of population in large cities, partly a manifestation of the economies of scale needed to promote economic efficiency and growth. Many of these cities in the ESCAP region have grown to become mega-cities (cities with a population of more than ten million). Table II.4. Actual and expected population and growth rate of urban agglomerations with more than 10 million inhabitants in 2001, Urban Population (millions) Growth rate a (percentage) Agglomeration Tokyo Sao Paolo Mexico City New York Mumbai Los Angeles Calcutta Dhaka Delhi Shanghai Buenos Aires Jakarta Osaka Beijing Rio de Janeiro Karachi Metro Manila Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.02.XIII.16). Note: Urban agglomerations are ordered according to their population size in a growth rates: review estimates. In 1950, there was only one mega-city in the world, New York 36. By 1975, that number had risen to five, and two (Tokyo and Shanghai) were in the ESCAP region. In 2001, 11 out of the A mega-city is defined as being a city with a population of more than ten million.

6 35 mega-cities in the world were in this region. By 2015, it is estimated that 13 out of a total of 21 megacities will be located in the ESCAP region (table II.4). Tokyo was the largest city in 2001, with 26.5 million inhabitants, and it will maintain its leading status through to 2015, despite the fact that its population will increase only marginally. Dhaka, Mumbai and Delhi are all expected to grow to more than 20 million people by These three cities, together with Jakarta, Karachi and Metro Manila, are projected to grow by over 2 per cent per annum, while it is anticipated that growth in all other existing mega-cities will be less than 1 per cent. The trend to mega-cities is also reflected in an increasing concentration of population in primate cities. The dominant urban agglomerations in selected ESCAP countries (table II.5 below) further portray the increase in urbanization over the past 30 years, with all expected to increase their proportionate populations by 2010 except Metro Manila, which will encounter a proportionate decrease of 0.3 per cent. Tokyo has remained relatively static as the primate city of Japan since 1980 accounting for approximately 20 per cent of the Japanese population. The aggressive growth rate of Dhaka has created a very high proportionate increase of its share of the population in Bangladesh: estimated to increase its proportion by 9.3 per cent between 1970 and Other selected agglomerations have encountered steady increases. Table II.5. Selected dominant urban agglomerations and their proportion of the national population, Name Population in millions (percentage of national population) Tokyo, Japan 16,498 21,854 25,081 26,444 27,093 (15.8) (18.7) (20.3) (20.8) (21.1) Dhaka, Bangladesh 1,474 3,257 6,621 12,519 19,393 (2.2) (3.3) (6) (9.1) (11.5) Jakarta, Indonesia 3,916 5,985 7,650 11,018 15,341 (3.2) (4.0) (4.2) (5.2) (6.5) Karachi, Pakistan 3,119 5,048 7,147 10,032 13,871 (5.0) (6.2) (6.5) (7.1) (7.6) Metro Manila, Philippines 3,535 (9.7) 5,955 (12.4) 7,973 (13.1) 9,950 (13.2) 11,618 (12.9) Bangkok, Thailand 3,110 4,723 5,901 7,372 8,937 (8.6) (10.3) (10.8) (9.7) (12.8) Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.02.XIII.16). Note: Urban agglomerations are ordered according to their population size in C. Demographic change As a general trend in the ESCAP region, the percentage of aged population will increase markedly over the next four decades, increasing to levels of 22 to 23 per cent by the year Decreasing birth rates throughout the ESCAP region further reinforce this prospective increase, with the total fertility rate expected to decrease and stabilize at a level of approximately 7.5 by the year 2030 (figure II.2).

7 36 Figure II.2. Trends in key demographic parameters, Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision. (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.01.XIII.8). Of the total ESCAP region in mid-2002, approximately 29 per cent were under the age of 14, 65 per cent were between 15 and 64, and approximately 6 per cent were over the age of 65. Greater female longevity has led to a substantial gender imbalance in this older age cohort, with a sex ratio of approximately 80 males to every 100 females (table II.6). Table II.6. Age demographic and gender ratio of the population aged 65+ in the ESCAP region 2002 Country or area and region Gender ratio of population Percentage aged 65+ (males per 100 females) ESCAP region EAST AND NORTH-EAST ASIA China Democratic People's Republic of Korea Hong Kong, China Japan Macao, China Mongolia Republic of Korea SOUTH-EAST ASIA Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia Lao People's Democratic Republic Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam

8 37 Country or area and region Gender ratio of population Percentage aged 65+ (males per 100 females) SOUTH AND SOUTH-WEST ASIA Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Iran (Islamic Republic of) Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Turkey NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Russian Federation Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan PACIFIC American Samoa Australia Cook Islands Fiji French Polynesia Guam Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia (Federated States of) Nauru New Caledonia New Zealand Niue Northern Mariana Islands Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Source: 2002 ESCAP Population Data Sheet.